Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average records Labor improving a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, puttings its lead north of Newspoll at 54-46. The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 36%, leaving it steady with an unchanged Labor, while the Greens and One Nation are steady at 11% and 7%. The poll features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull up one on approval to 37% and up four on disapproval to 49%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 36% and up one to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister remains about the same, at 41-27 compared with 39-26 a month ago. In other findings, it turns out you get a much stronger response on trust in secure storage of personal data if you say “security agencies such as the Australian Federal Police, local police and ASIO” (64% a lot of or some trust, 32% little or none) than you do if you say “the government” (43% and 52%), while telcos and private companies rate considerably worse again.
Also in polldom:
• The Australia Institute has also produced results of polls conducted in cabinet ministers’ seats to emphasise the point that the government is on the wrong side of public opinion in the blue belt on such matters as taxpayer subsidies for the Adani Carmichael coal mine project. More to the point, they also feature results on voting intention, with samples from 627 to 692. These suggest swings of 2.4% against Scott Morrison in Cook, 3.8% against Greg Hunt in Flinders, 5.7% against Julie Bishop in Curtin, 6.8% against Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth and 7.3% swing against Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong, but better results for the government in the two most marginal of the seats covered, with no swing at all against Christopher Pyne in Sturt and a swing of 4.4% in favour of Peter Dutton in Dickson.
• A second tranche from Newspoll finds 46% in favour of a plebiscite on same-sex marriage versus 39% for “have the politicians decide”. This reverses a curious result on the same subject in September, which had the respective numbers at 39% and 48% – although then there was the presumably significant difference that the question stressed a plebiscite in February. Essential Research’s poll last week found 59% supporting a “national vote” and 29% the matter being “decided by parliament”, despite the wording of the latter option being less unappealing than Newspoll’s invocation of “politicians”.
UPDATE (YouGov/Fifty Acres): The second YouGov poll for Fifty Acres has strayed well away from the rest of the field, with the Coalition bouncing three points on the primary vote to 36% while Labor drops one to 33%, with the Greens and One Nation steady on 12% and 7%, and the remainder down two to 12%. Previous election preferences would place Labor’s lead slightly above 52-48, which isn’t too radically. But YouGov’s respondent allocation method, which presents those who complete the online survey with a mock ballot paper to fill out, continues to elicit extraordinary results: enough in this case to give the Coalition a lead of 52-48.
Louise Mensch was just on Triple M Sydney giving an interview
PhoenixRed
Maddow is on the money!
I am going to see if the whole segment is online!
As I mentioned earlier, the biggest issue is that Trump and by extension his surrogates, are beholden to the Kremlin at the expense of the US and its allies.
Ides of March
Thanks for reminder. Rhys Muldoon tweeted about the interview Yesterday
A Fed Up Top House Republican Blew At Gasket At Trump Over The Russia Scandal
The Russia scandal is breaking apart the Republican Party as the chairman of the House Oversight Committee, Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) fumed at the Trump administration during an interview on Fox News.
Gowdy said, “If you had a contact with Russia, tell the special counsel about it! Don’t wait until the New York Times figures it out!….Someone needs to get everyone in a room and say, from the time you saw ‘Dr. Zhivago’ until the moment you drank vodka with a guy named Boris, you list every single contact with Russia.”
Trump has few allies in Congress who are loyal to him. If Republicans in the House and Senate come to the conclusion that they are better off without Trump, they will toss him aside. The cracks are beginning to appear in the Republican majority. Trey Gowdy expressed publicly what many Republicans are thinking privately. If Trump can’t get the Russia scandal under control, it will be Donald Trump that will need to go.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/11/fed-top-house-republican-blew-gasket-trump-russia-scandal.html
Hmmmm….
Montel Williams @Montel_Williams
The smoke may be from Russia, but the fire is from Azerbaijan.
Just wait till that shoe drops. This Donald Jr. thing pales in comparison…
11:55 AM · Jul 12, 2017
Why Azerbaijan?
victoria Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:42 pm
PhoenixRed
Maddow is on the money!
I am going to see if the whole segment is online!
As I mentioned earlier, the biggest issue is that Trump and by extension his surrogates, are beholden to the Kremlin at the expense of the US and its allies.
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Each day, another drip…… and another one of the Trump ‘Corleone’ Family & Co are exposed – and what is out in public is probably nothing to what Mueller and NYAG Schneiderman have on them all ……………….. they will have to open up Guantanamo Bay to house them all !!!
Donald Trump’s lawyers now think Jared Kushner is sabotaging him
By Bill Palmer
The only entity in deeper chaos right now than Donald Trump’s White House is Donald Trump’s family. His son just confessed to committing treason in the name of trying to get him elected. And his son-in-law Jared Kushner committed a felony by illegally lying about his own numerous meetings with the Russian government. Now, in what might be the most surreal development to date, Trump’s own attorneys are accusing Kushner of trying to sabotage Trump.
In a new long-form piece from the New York Times about general White House mayhem, the lead is buried all the way down in the twelfth paragraph. That’s where you learn that Donald Trump’s newly assembled legal team, and attorney Marc Kasowitz in particular, have grown frustrated with how Jared Kushner has been able to manipulate his father-in-law: “The president’s lawyers view Mr. Kushner as an obstacle and freelancer more concerned about protecting himself than his father-in-law, the person said.” . In other words, Kushner is sabotaging Trump by trying to steer him toward what’s best for Kushner, instead of what’s best for himself, when it comes to the Russia scandal.
This takes us back to when Donald Trump first fired FBI Director James Comey. The story surfaced in widespread fashion that it was Jared Kushner who pushed the hardest for Comey’s firing. Only later did we learn his motivation: he had lied about his own Russia meetings on his security clearance form, which is a felony. Kushner wanted Trump to put a stop to the FBI’s digging at any cost, even though he had to have known full well that firing Comey would lead to Trump’s unraveling.
And now we find out that Jared Kushner also lied on his clearance form about the Russia meeting he attended with Donald Trump Jr. No wonder Kushner is trying to push Donald Trump into doing what’s best for Kushner in the scandal, even if it means sabotaging Trump in the process.
Lizzie @12:07PM: by the standards insisted upon by Liberal-Nationa-Newscorp Coalition, Tim McCurdy’s vote is tainted. I expect to see Liberals and Nationals charging for the door if he tries to vote.
victoria @ #101 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:42 pm
Here it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZ8g0hzdgYA
PhoenixRed
Check out timeline of Montel Williams as posted above. Seems like the daughtergate reporting by Mensch is the other shoe to drop
Donald Trump Jr. slips up on Sean Hannity show and admits he kept in contact with Russian officials after meeting
Earlier today, Down Goes Trump confidently predicted that that Donald Trump would further contribute to his own self-destruction when he appeared on the Sean Hannity show on Fox News tonight. And sure enough, that’s exactly what just happened. But this might be an even bigger slip-up than even we could have cynically predicted.
Sean Hannity asked Donald Trump Jr. what was supposed to have been a softball wrapped in the guise of a serious question: did he have any further contact with the Russian government after his one-off meeting with the Kremlin representative? Hannity was surely expecting Junior to say “no” and move on. But instead Junior seemed caught off guard, pausing for a minute before admitting that he went on to “casually” have further contact with the Russian officials multiple additional times.
Because Hannity is an apologist and a hack, he didn’t properly push for the requisite followup information. But that won’t matter. Now that Donald Trump Jr. has publicly admitted that he had ongoing contacts with Russian officials after his June 2016 meeting, every journalist on earth will begin digging for evidence of what those contacts were. And if Special Counsel Robert Mueller wasn’t already aware of Junior’s additional contacts with Russia, his team will begin digging into it now as well.
In other words, Donald Trump Jr.’s decision to appear on Hannity tonight was roughly as stupid as everything else he’s said and done over the past three days. He just managed to open up yet another can of worms
Thanks BK!
I personally have the theory that the longer it takes for Trump to go down. The uglier it gets. The more chance there is for the poorly educated lizard brains that voted for Trump and consistently vote against their own slef interest by voting Republucan, to actually learn.
Donald Trump’s lawyer threatens to quit
The one, who thinks “president” is spelled “predisent.” That guy. He’s been on the job for what, roughly a month? Yeah, he’s already ready to head for the hills, by his own admission.
Marc Kasowitz, the first of several attorneys whom Donald Trump has hired to collectively represent him in the Russia scandal, says he’s looking at resigning (source: NY Times). The reason: Kasowitz is frustrated because – big surprise – Trump ignores the legal advice that’s given to him. Instead, Trump is allowing his son-in-law Jared Kushner to call the legal shots, and Kushner is predictably trying to steer Trump toward doing whatever is best for Kushner’s own dicey legal situation.
If Kasowitz does quit, Donald Trump still has his other incompetent attorneys in the fold. But according to the NY Times piece, they’re all frustrated at Trump because he won’t listen to their legal advice. So if you’re part of the Resistance, this is good news for you. Trump refusing to listen to his lawyers only increases the odds of him ending up on the wrong side of the law when this scandal is said and done.
Donald Trump’s dealings in Azerbejain are a case study in his shady dealing with anyone and everone who is prepared to cross his tiny palms with silver
“According to The New Yorker, the Trump Organisation signed off on the deal with the powerful Mammadov family who, aside from regularly getting called out for exploiting political power to increase personal wealth, has reported ties with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — anextremist military force that has helped finance Iran’s nuclear weapons program and trained terror organisations like Hezbollah.
Azerbaijan’s Transportation Minister, Ziya Mammadov reportedly “awarded a series of multimillion-dollar contracts” to a construction company controlled by the IRGC in 2008, when development of the Baku Trump Tower first started.
“The entire Baku deal is a giant red flag — the direct involvement of foreign government officials and their relatives in Azerbaijan with ties to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard,” Jessica Tillipman, an assistant dean specializing in government anti-corruption at George Washington University Law School told the New Yorker. “Corruption warning signs are rarely more obvious.”
The 1977 Foreign Corrupt Practices Act forbids companies from “participating in a scheme to reward a foreign government official in exchange for material benefit or preferential treatment.” However, Garten told The Washington Post that the organisation’s investigation into the Mammadov family “did not raise any red flags.”
Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trumps-azerbaijan-hotel-linked-with-corruption-iran-2017-3#CkXEeri1MLVXzfdo.99
Sprocket:
You are a gentleman and a scholar. Thanks! I didnt know the Azerbaijan link.
andy lee @ #73 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 11:28 am
Care to assist?
Or just an idle spectator?
ides of march @ #105 Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 12:53 pm
A simple search on Google for “Trump Azerbaijan” brought up the following:
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/senators-ask-for-an-investigation-into-trump-dealings-in-azerbaijan
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/13/donald-trumps-worst-deal
http://www.newsweek.com/trump-azerbaijan-pop-star-russian-lawyer-634932
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/03/10/ivanka-trump-played-key-role-in-her-fathers-failed-and-potentially-corrupt-azerbaijan-hotel-deal-report-says/
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/06/donald-trump-conflicts-of-interests/508382/
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2017/06/14/433351/trumps-conflicts-interest-azerbaijan/
These two are probably the best place to start though.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/06/trump-hotel-in-baku-partnered-with-notoriously-corrupt-oligarch-with-ties-to-iranian-revolutionary-guard-corps-new-yorker-report-azerbaijan-iran-corruption-conflict-of-interest-mammadov/
https://qz.com/925067/the-trump-organizations-azerbaijan-partner-supports-iranian-terrorists-says-the-new-yorker/
Both of them claim that Trump’s business partner in a hotel in Baiku has ties to the Iranian National Guard and/or terrorists.
Russia is one thing, but we all know how much the Yanks just lervs the Iranians.
Qld Premier Gina Paluszczuk tries to take some pressure of the LNP by doubling down on her pitch for the environmental vandal vote. Ahh Queensland… corrupt one day, decayed the next.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/premier-faces-howls-over-adani-mine-at-town-hall-meeting-20170711-gx9ebj.html
On the outer Baku where the churches are few….
I have seen the fire spring from the ground there.
Donald Trump Jnr. did not have to tell his father about his meeting with Russia since either the Son-in-Law Kuchner, or the campaign director Mannafort could have easily done it for him. Hence he has deniability (sort of).
The “car carbon tax” has certainly had Turnbull, Frydenberg and other ministers in panicky reverse gear today. Shorten has taken full advantage of this great opportunity.
Unless, of course, someone has proof that Donald knew. Which seems to be the suggestion with the Washington Post.
At least Ronald Reagan knew to surround himself with smart people. Trump’s cronyism looks like crippling him.
JimmyDoyle Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 3:03 pm
“Booleanbach
Hence he has deniability (sort of).”
Unless, of course, someone has proof that Donald knew. Which seems to be the suggestion with the Washington Post.
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Now THAT is the key to all this – does ‘someone’ or some ‘organisation’ have proof that Trump himself knew or was directly involved in collusion ????? ……. maybe its the WaPo that has the missing part and is sitting on it on advice from Mueller.
Seth AbramsonVerified account
Stuff is getting *real* tonight, folks. As soon as the focus turns from Veselnitskaya to the Agalarovs—maybe tomorrow—things will get *hot*.
As we await a hammer-drop on the Putin-to-Agalarov-to-(Don)-to-Trump pipeline …..
Hey, so guess who said in June 2016 that THE AGALAROVS were a PIPELINE between TRUMP and PUTIN? This guy (former Russia-desk Chief at MI6): Christopher Steele
‘At least Ronald Reagan knew to surround himself with smart people. Trump’s cronyism looks like crippling him.’
As somebody said on ABC radio this morning, so paranoid is Trump that the only people he trusts are members of his immediate family, who lack the skills, expertise and experience to even come close to being competent.
Dio
At least Ronald Reagan knew to surround himself with smart people
Excluding his tea leaf reading B grade actress homophobic wife, Nancy Robbins Davis Reagan, I assume.
JD @ 124
Yes, Trump Snr probably knew, but not through his son; was what I was suggesting.
So, the son has deniability, not the father.
Booleanbach – I do see that you were making a different point than the one I thought you were making, however, charges like collusion are a lot like the mafia – once you’re in, you’re in. It doesn’t matter how much you know or don’t know.
Itza, I wouldnt want to pass so straightforward a judgement on Nancy Reagan.
I heard she (in her relationship with Gorbachev’s wife) was a major stumbling block to arms reductions. But I dont know. She is from a different generation. The lady passed away last year in her 90’s. I think ambivalence is the toughest stance one should take.
Hillary held imaginary conversations with Eleanor Roosevelt and Mahatma Gandhi facilitated by a spiritual crank.
Finally getting caught on on the Donald Trump Jr story. I was skeptical of Trumps collusion with Russia, but not anymore, holy fuck, they’re guilty, they actually committed treason.
**At least Ronald Reagan knew to surround himself with smart people.**
Trump is handicapped by being limited to people who are prepared to destroy their reputations in working with him or too dumb to realise that will happen or do not have a reputation in the first place.
If he werent such a tosser you could feel sorry for him.
SK
Itza, I wouldnt want to pass so straightforward a judgement on Nancy Reagan.
I heard she (in her relationship with Gorbachev’s wife) was a major stumbling block to arms reductions. But I dont know. She is from a different generation. The lady passed away last year in her 90’s. I think ambivalence is the toughest stance one should take.
SK, passage away doesn’t of itself restrain me or call for ambivalence in my view. My “straightforward” judgements were referenced with hyperlinks, with the exception of being a B grade actress, which I’ll leave stand alone.
YouGov = the Roy Morgan of our times
I’ve added results from the latest YouGov/Fifty Acres poll to the post.
citizen
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 at 2:54 pm
The “car carbon tax” has certainly had Turnbull, Frydenberg and other ministers in panicky reverse gear today. Shorten has taken full advantage of this great opportunity.
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It’s an outstanding opportunity for Shorten to give Brian Trumble an atomic wedgie. Shorten offers bipartisanship then lets Brian’s own side crucify him.
Some utter rubbish from Paula Matthewson in today’s Crikey:
Matthewson: Turnbull just pulled a Credlin and reset the agenda
Malcolm Turnbull has desperately needed a way to reconnect with the moderate/progressive voters that once had high hopes for him but now have stopped listening. The London speech might be it.
This week’s mini-furore over the Prime Minister’s Disraeli Prize speech in London is a perfect example of the media and commentators losing sight of the big picture when focusing on the detail. The real story is that Turnbull has a done a Credlin — he’s reframed his political opponents and in doing so may have shifted the nation’s political discussion in his favour.
****************
Utter crap and I expect much better from Crikey than sprouting political class and CPG group think. How many more resets/brilliant plants/brain farts that collapse into smouldering ruins shortly after launch is it going to take to get Matthewson and her ilk to realise what everyone else in Australia has long known: Turnbull is a dud no matter how many resets he has.
Dio
Hillary held imaginary conversations with Eleanor Roosevelt and Mahatma Gandhi facilitated by a spiritual crank
Well, she was shooting high at least. Mind you, I have friends who regularly go to a clairvoyant, where they usually hear what they want to hear, and happily pay.
“A woman is like a tea bag – you can’t tell how strong she is till you put her in hot water’. Eleanor Roosevelt.
Hillary could have got that for free from Prof Google and saved on the ouija board.
Grimace
Utter crap and I expect much better from Crikey than sprouting political class and CPG group think.
Agree completely.
Mention of Baku reminds me of the book “Why Hell Stinks of Sulfur. Mythology and Geology of the Underworld” by Salomon Kroonenberg.
Layer, by layer, peels away Earth, with Virgil and Dante as guides (among others). Chapters on “Wanderings of Odysseus”, “The Entrance to Hell”, “Charon’s Ferry”, “The City of Dis” and “The River of Tar”. This last is the Baku chapter. Also many others. An entertaining view of the source of myth in natural phenomena.
Itza, a couple of my old aunties read coffee grounds, are interested in their star sign and arent too keen on homo’s. Not sure about their acting abilities. I judge them by their commitment to family, community and filo pastry.
Knott of Fairfax on why it was the fault of somebody else in the CPG that a “car carbon tax” became a talking point today. How amazing that he has only just discovered this phenomenon. Presumably it never happened when Labor was in government. Doubtless he will now forsake being a political commentator and go opal mining instead.
The shitfers are running out of excuses.
AEMO: Politics needs to catch up with falling cost of wind, solar, storage
http://reneweconomy.com.au/aemo-politics-needs-catch-falling-cost-wind-solar-storage-65565/
Yay!
Trumble’s won a poll!
YouGov has found the budget bounce, the London speech has reset the 30 poll count and Brian’s entire career. Screw Newspoll. We have a new gold standard.
Hallelujah and hosanna! Blessed joy for the saviour has come.
Can’t accuse them of herding at least.
A certain disparity creeping into the polls.
I thought hell stinks of sulphur because Sicily was the world’s largest sulphur mine and Hades abducted Persephone to the underworld in a field in the centre of Sicily?
Yeah. Nah.