Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

As Newspoll reports for the first time in three weeks, Labor’s 53-47 lead remains set in cement.

The Australian relates yet another 53-47 result from Newspoll, with both major parties down a point on the primary vote: the Coalition to 35% and Labor to 36%, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens, despite it all, up a point to 10%. Of personal ratings, only the following at this stage:

Mr Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating — the difference between those satisfied and those dissatisfied with his performance — deteriorated slightly from -23 points to -24 points over the past three weeks. In contrast, Mr Shorten improved his net satisfaction rating from -23 to -20 points in today’s poll, showing another improvement in his standing with voters since he slumped to -28 points in March.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 56%; Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 33% and down two to 53%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 44-31 to 41-33.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

811 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 17
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  2. Steve777
    Sunday, July 9, 2017 at 11:44 pm
    Edinburgh – now 15 degrees and cloudy at 2:30 on a Summer afternoon – like Sydney on a particularly dismal Winter’s day. Forecast for the next week about 11-16 and cloudy everyday, sunny breaks on Wednesday.

    Steve will be in Aberdeen on Wednesday then Edinburgh Saturday, my daughter and family live there going to be hard after Greek isles 25 to 34 Celsius

  7. Silentmajority
    Monday, July 10, 2017 at 12:46 am
    Steve’s not in Edinburghhh, but I am.

    Not much to do here on a wet sunday.
    Yes realized that after I had sent comment. Bit late now bug some great museums in Edinburgh. The Falkkirk Wheel is great. I just love wandering around Rose and Princes street. Great views of castle from Princes street. Festival will, be starting soon.

  9. Thanks for the heads up about Falkirk Wheel. I will visit.
    Today I walked through the gardens & St Cuthberts kirkyard which was beautiful & facinating.
    What I didn’t realize was how hilly it is. By the end of the day my feet & ankles are swollen.

  10. Silentmajority
    Monday, July 10, 2017 at 1:23 am
    Thanks for the heads up about Falkirk Wheel. I will visit.
    Today I walked through the gardens & St Cuthberts kirkyard which was beautiful & facinating.
    What I didn’t realize was how hilly it is. By the end of the day my feet & ankles are swollen.

    My daughter was transferred to Edinburgh by United distillers (now Diagio she and husband had a beautiful apartment just up from St Cuthberts with lovely views of the castle. I know Edinburgh very well. She then transferred to London, given a lovely house at Chiswick. So I was very lucky for both cities. She has returned to Australia. My younger daughter was also transferred to Edinburgh by Mercer ,the actuarial company, met a Scotsman which is why I will be in Edinburgh next Saturday

  11. The Coalition would have had a hard time winning being behind on primaries at most points they’ve existed, only during the high point of the DLP and the first One Nation have they had much in the way of significant minor parties to draw votes from. You can’t win if you’re behind on primaries and aren’t winning on preference flows.

    The Democrats during the height of their power were a mix of centrists and leftwingers.

    Out of context primaries don’t mean much in our lower house system due to Single Member CPV , votes tend to flow back to the major parties.

  12. I leave on saturday for dumfries. What a shame. We could’ve gone on a drunken pub crawl & fallen in a gutter somewhere so they knew some Australians where there…

  13. And, before I go,
    I had dinner at La Petite Mort.
    Top shelf, but what does it mean?

    Yes, I know, but do you?

  16. In A Lucid Moment, John McCain Burns Trump To The Ground On Russia Hacking

    On CBS’s Face The Nation, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) torched Donald Trump for cooperating with Russia on preventing election hacking by saying by saying that he is sure Russia could help since they are the ones doing the hacking.

    Even Republicans can’t keep a straight face while discussing Trump’s effort to turn the Russians into the good guys who are on the side of the US. The scheme is a joke, and every single American should work to make sure that Russia has nothing to do with US cyber security.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/09/lucid-moment-john-mccain-burns-trump-ground-russia-hacking.html

  17. Congressman Immediately Proposes Bill To Block Trump’s Election Cyber Security Group With Russia

    Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA) has announced that he will be introducing legislation to prevent President Trump from forming an election cyber security group with Russia.

    What Trump’s cyber security working group would do is provide the Russians with direct access to our election system. Putin would be able to rig future elections for the candidate of his choosing without having to go through all the hassle of hacking 50 state voting systems. Trump is proposing to hand Russia the keys to everything, which is why Congress must step in and prohibit Trump from working with Russia on any matter related to Us elections.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/09/congressman-immediately-proposes-bill-block-trumps-election-cyber-security-group-russia.html

  18. New poll reveals the first word that comes to mind when Americans think of Trump

    What is the first word that comes to mind when you think of Donald Trump?”

    That’s the open-ended question a Quinnipiac poll asked Americans recently. The No. 1 answer: “idiot.”

    Have you seen anything since then that would move the needle away from “idiot”? Or from “ignorant” (the ninth most frequent answer), or “stupid” (12th)? He doesn’t know what’s in the Senate’s health care bill. He’s not reading his intelligence briefings. He’s watching more Fox News than your cranky uncle. His behavior seems engineered to provoke responses like, “Can you believe what an idiot/ignoramus/stupid person Trump is?”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/new-poll-reveals-the-first-word-that-comes-to-mind-when-americans-think-of-trump/

  19. Adani Mine ‘Plan’

    Adani’s Carmichael coal mine has slow ‘official start’ planned, leaked document shows

    Flanked by Commonwealth and Queensland politicians, the giant Indian conglomerate Adani last month announced that its board had given final investment approval to its controversial mega-mine in North Queensland, and declared the “official start” of the Carmichael coal mining project.
    …
    But what does that mean in practice? For the moment, it seems, not much.

    The ABC has obtained the plan of operations for the Carmichael coal mine project submitted to the Queensland Government last month.

    It covers just six months and involves next to nothing: just re-establishing signage at the site, recommissioning an existing temporary camp and installing some additional demountable buildings.

    “The plan of operations will be amended in due course to include all early works related to commencement of construction activities for the mine and related infrastructure works,” it says.

    “It only really commits Adani to maintaining the existing temporary camp and looking after the signs and roads,” he said.

    “It raises serious doubts about the project’s financial viability.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-10/adani-queensland-coal-mine-plan-raises-doubts-on-viability/8691020

  20. Woke to the news on PB that Uhlmann has achieved international fame for telling the truth. This is his moment in the sun.

    Funny how our journos turn truthful when they leave Oz (sarcasm).

  21. New York Times is getting te leaks from the Deep State…

    “President Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., was promised damaging information about Hillary Clinton before agreeing to meet with a Kremlin-connected Russian lawyer during the 2016 campaign, according to three advisers to the White House briefed on the meeting and two others with knowledge of it.

    The meeting was also attended by his campaign chairman at the time, Paul J. Manafort, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Mr. Manafort and Mr. Kushner only recently disclosed the meeting, though not its content, in confidential government documents described to The New York Times.

    The Times reported the existence of the meeting on Saturday. But in subsequent interviews, the advisers and others revealed the motivation behind it.

    The meeting — at Trump Tower on June 9, 2016, two weeks after Donald J. Trump clinched the Republican nomination — points to the central question in federal investigations of the Kremlin’s meddling in the presidential election: whether the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians. The accounts of the meeting represent the first public indication that at least some in the campaign were willing to accept Russian help.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/09/us/politics/trump-russia-kushner-manafort.html?smid=tw-share

  22. Adani again:

    Ron Watson, Adani’s spokesman in Australia, has maintained the company is fully committed to the project and hopes to have finance confirmed within six months.

    In other words the big brouhaha made by Turnbull, Canavan, and others about Adani’s Board ‘committing to the mine’ means ‘jack’ as they still have no finance and a timing of 6 months to find it looks like they don’t even have a likely source of it.

  23. Uhlmann’s put down of Trump stands in stark contrast to his toadying behaviour towards Abbott, and his megaphoning of right wing talking points (such as the renewables causing blackouts in South Australia).

  24. Thanks Mr Kennett

    The increase in fines comes as CityLink operator Transurban pushes to extend its toll deal as part of its proposal to build the West Gate Tunnel project.

    Community legal centres are now being flooded with clients struggling to cope with fines.

    West Justice chief executive Denis Nelthorpe said outer western suburbs hit hard by infringements were highly dependent on CityLink to reach employment and motorists struggled to pay if they hit financial trouble.

    Many of these suburbs were sparsely populated when the toll system was introduced under former premier Jeff Kennett, Mr Nelthorpe said.

    He said regular users from the outer suburbs should be entitled to discounted rates and that overburdened courts should not have to enforce the infringements.

    “The courts can no longer cope,” he said.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/more-than-seven-out-of-10-toll-road-fines-end-up-in-criminal-justice-system-20170709-gx7pwr.html?btis

  25. Sprocket_

    Perhaps Uhlmann would be better as an overseas reporter. I agree he’s hopelessly compromised here. IMV the rot set in when he was promoted.

  26. There’s nothing weird about it. US Republicans consistently rate horribly even with other conservative parties voters (the elected representatives are often different because they tend to be amongst those who’d benefit from the Republicans economic desires) pretty much everywhere in the First World and a significant chunk beyond it. Its likely both an honest assessment and not one that is overly dangerous because pretty much everyone watching would have agreed.

  27. Apologies if already posted.

    At the end of the G20, however, the ABC is reduced to applauding our PM for having hitched a ride in French President Macron’s car, a brilliant move which is seen as endorsing the incredible submarine deal with DCNS in which we are contracting to spend $50 billion on a completely untried design on a concept of retro-fitting nuclear power plants that experts doubt is even possible. All for a firm that won’t keep its promise of local work.

    Our media gives us the score on the G20. Sky says it ends “divided” on climate and free trade. What Sky means is that all delegates agreed except Donald Trump, a president so challenged, intellectually and morally that he cannot comprehend the crisis of global warming, let alone the imperative take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Not that he’s alone. Back at home while the cat’s away, Mouseketeer Abbott is leading his insurrection.

    https://urbanwronski.com/

  30. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    An answer to the question SilentMajority posed:

    I had dinner at La Petite Mort.
    Top shelf, but what does it mean?

    Yes, I know, but do you?

    So, it means ‘The Little Death’

    However, what does it refer to?

    It references a metaphor in a John Donne poem, I think, but also the French term for an orgasm. 🙂

  32. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Ross Gittins tells us that Treasury has lost the plot, allowing the reform push to degenerate and be captured by business rent-seekers, politicians with ulterior motives and other government departments that didn’t understand what they were doing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-treasury-lost-its-way-on-economic-reform-20170708-gx7cna.html
    David Crowe on how Turnbull is suffering from a two-pronged attack. Google.
    /opinion/turnbulls-preferred-pm-rating-under-twopronged-attack/news-story/9d3c30ab9c707b9ea15cd4eeb7ccf567
    Now THAT’S what you call fake!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/revealed-sharobeem-family-sent-500000-to-relative-in-egypt-after-icac-grilling-20170621-gwve6n.html
    Chris Uhlmann has become famous in the US for describing Trump for what he is. Great stuff!
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/australian-journalists-searing-assessment-of-trump-strikes-a-chord-around-the-world-in-viral-video-20170709-gx7t5a.html
    Here’s Urban Wronski’s take on the G20.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/07/09/a-g20-or-19-1-certainly-no-ode-to-joy/
    Paul Kelly writes that Trump has been played like a fiddle by Putin and Xi. He really piles into Trump. Google.
    /news/nation/trump-talking-nonsense-as-xi-and-putin-play-for-keeps/news-story/63eb25104ef668721a89e9c633832905
    The G20 summit did little to heal fractured international relations, merely signalling more discord to come.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tensions-in-hamburg-the-g20-fractures,10487
    Annabel Crabbe wonders how Turnbull can overcome an adversary that has nothing to lose.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/against-genuine-fanaticism-conventional-diplomacy-is-useless-20170707-gx6w4f.html
    Paula Matthewson writes that if there’s one message Tony Abbott should have received loud and clear by the end of this week it’s this – give it a break, Tony. We’ve had enough. Not even the right wingers want it she says.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/07/07/moment-showed-people-really-think-tony-abbott/

  33. Section 2 . . .

    Energy analysis firm RepuTex finds clean energy target going beyond that advocated by Finkel Review would keep prices down for longer
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/10/ambitious-clean-energy-target-will-mean-lower-electricity-prices-modelling-says
    After driving to Lourdes for a miracle cure of his formerly debilitating condition George Pell has made the air trip back to Australia and enters the country through the airport “back door”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/cardinal-george-pell-returns-to-australia-to-face-historical-sex-abuse-charges-20170709-gx7usn.html
    Why privatisation won’t make Sydney’s buses run in time.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/10/ambitious-clean-energy-target-will-mean-lower-electricity-prices-modelling-says
    Big Pharma is finding its insidious way into hospitals.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/royal-north-shore-hospital-tops-list-of-sydney-hospitals-hosting-drug-company-events-20170706-gx68lq.html
    Adam Gartrell on “Price reduced for quick sale”. The regional post office that has sparked a High Court challenge against a federal minister and threatens to topple the Turnbull government is on the market.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/price-reduced-for-quick-sale-the-post-office-that-could-topple-turnbull-20170709-gx7iu4.html
    The AFR has some inside info on how Bruce Bilson has been lobbying furiously over the proposed changes to laws governing franchising arrangements. Google.
    http://www.afr.com/business/bruce-billson-warns-joe-hockey-about-potential-us-concerns-for-turnbulls-new-franchise-laws-20170709-gx7n0c
    Ku Klux Klan demonstrators were met with counter-protesters in Virginia on Saturday over a dispute regarding the removal of a statue. Supporters of the white supremacist group marched on Charlottesville to protest the removal of a statue of General Robert E Lee, who oversaw the pro-slavery Confederate forces in the US civil war.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/07/09/ku-klux-klan-clash-with-anti-racism-demonstrators-in-virginia/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Some of the anger about Grenfell Tower is directed towards mainstream media, seen by many as the government’s mouthpiece.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/media-blog/2017/jul/09/grenfell-survivors-blame-mainstream-media-for-ignoring-them
    South Australia is being short-changed by $300 million in federal infrastructure funding, as its highways crumble and crucial road projects remain incomplete. Google.
    /news/south-australia/federal-government-shortchanged-sa-300-million-in-infrastructure-spending/news-story/5119968fd765c773af3d38469184108d

  34. Section 3 . . .

    New data released by the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission shows overall drug arrests doubled in the last ten years — but the number of dealers and manufacturers caught remained unchanged. What the hell’s going on?
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/ia-exclusive-drug-user-arrests-in-australia-spiral-while-dealers-caught-remains-the-same,10485
    The spotlight is shining on a group of spivs over a collapsed vocational learning business and an attempt at Phoenixing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/acquire-learnings-loans-to-shareholders-g1x-under-spotlight-20170707-gx71mg.html
    Meanwhile Clive Palmer continued his luxury cruise around the Mediterranean and Adriatic, sloping off to see the sights of Venice in a private water taxi yesterday after insisting that none of his workers at the failed company Queensland Nickel was out of pocket. Google.
    au/news/nation/palmer-in-cruise-control-as-former-employees-continue-to-struggle/news-story/f5e239b3c2054f88d9de725c02f4fb1a
    More smoke and mirrors from NBN.
    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/nbn-co-reaches-halfway-mark-early-thanks-to-shrinking-target-20170706-gx5r9t.html
    The second half of the rollout will face many challenges. Google.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/nbn-rampup-faces-technical-challenges/news-story/ce0d70e920315698c195de351b3dec07
    The ATO fails to recognise the modern requirement to be “on call”24/7. Google.
    /news/policy/tax/tax-ruling-ignores-the-reality-of-the-2017-workforce-20170709-gx7ivy
    I love this!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/philip-morris-ordered-to-pay-australia-millions-in-costs-for-plain-packaging-case-20170709-gx7mv5.html

  36. Re Adani

    It covers just six months and involves next to nothing: just re-establishing signage at the site, recommissioning an existing temporary camp and installing some additional demountable buildings.

    That should give the signwriter in Townsville some work, although it will depend on whether they are just recycling old signs. Not a lot of jobs. The demountables might mean a little more for the Qld economy.
    Hey I know what .. Weatherill managed to parley a lousy $50 mill into the worlds biggest battery. Maybe Canavan could redirect the $900 mill earmarked for the Cayman Islands railway to nowhere into kickstarting a whole bunch of renewable and storage projects in the North. All that cheap energy would be great for agriculture, irrigation, greenhouses etc!
    I’m sure he would agree, it makes so much sense!

  37. PHON will struggle to get all of the 11 percent at an election, as they won’t have enough people to hand out how to vote cards. So what kind of senate is the ALP lilely to be dealing with?

  38. Morning all

    I hadn’t realised we were due for a Newspoll. Good stuff.

    As already mentioned, Chris Uhlmann’s 2 minute assessment on Trump and the G20 was indeed a doozy.

  40. So why would Trump junior admit he met with Kremlin agent to get compromising stuff on Clinton during campaign? Could it be that Intel have it recorded as has been suggested throughout this imbroglio.

  41. Donald Trump Jr. Just Accidentally Confirmed That Trump Was Looking To Collude With Russia

    While trying to save his father’s skin from the Russia scandal, Donald Trump Jr. accidentally confirmed in a statement that the Trump campaign was colluding with Russia to get dirt on Hillary Clinton.

    Forget the stuff about the meeting itself, the reason why Trump Jr. took the meeting is much more important. The Trump campaign met with the Russian because they wanted to use information from a government that is hostile to democracy to defeat Hillary Clinton. The idea that Manafort, Kushner, and Trump Jr. were conveniently lured to a meeting with a promise of information that just so happens to match a conspiracy theory that Trump has been pushing is a lie.

    Donald Trump Jr. just made the collusion case against Trump much stronger, because he accidentally let slip what the Trump campaign’s motivation was for colluding with Russia.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/09/donald-trump-jr-save-dad.html

  44. Trump-Russia scandal explodes: Kremlin offered Donald Trump Jr. dirt on Hillary Clinton ahead of meeting

    By Bill Palmer

    Donald Trump Jr is going to prison for colluding with the Russian government to rig the election, and the only remaining question is whether his father is going with him. One day after Junior was exposed as having secretly met with a Kremlin lawyer during the campaign, that same newspaper is now revealing what the meeting was about.

    Trump Junior admitted in yesterday’s New York Times bombshell that he had indeed met with a Kremlin attorney during the campaign – but he incredibly claimed the meeting was about adoption. Now the NY Times has a new followup article with three inside sources confirming that Trump Junior was offered dirt on Hillary Clinton ahead of the meeting. And incredibly, Trump Junior is now halfway admitting that this is true.

    Donald Trump Jr is now telling the NY Times that he only took the meeting with the Kremlin attorney because a friend asked him to, and that once he was at the meeting, the attorney really did offer him dirt on Hillary Clinton. He claims it didn’t go anywhere. But this means that for the second day in a row, Junior is admitting to some form of the latest Trump-Russia collusion bombshell that the media has produced about him.

    Incredibly, Donald Trump’s own team of attorneys now appear to be setting up Donald Trump Jr to take the fall, telling the Times that “the president was not aware of and did not attend the meeting.” In other words, Senior looks all set to try to pin his own Russian collusion scandal on Junior. It won’t work.

  45. Sky news is running the tag
    latest poll shows PM Malcolm Turnbull losing ground to Bill Shorten on preferred PM.

    As the 2pp result is unchanged, they seem to be focusing on that.
    I am about to flick through my freebie copy of the GG.
    I wonder if Shanahan is still looking for a ‘narrowing’.

  46. Out of curiosity, I opened David Crowe’s rubbish in the GG. As ever, the Comments section is a fascinating study into the “minds” of readers.
    google “turnbulls-preferred-pm-rating-under-twopronged-attack”
    Sample:
    “Turnbull is NOT my Leader or PM, I did not and will not vote for him. Tony Abbott is my Leader and PM, I voted for him and he needs to be reinstated as PM”
    A revealing insight into opinions about “democracy”

  47. Good Morning.

    E

    Thats what I expected. Thanks.

    News I woke up to on Newsradio.

    Marriage Equality Push
    Donald Trump tweets and reaction
    Cardinal Pell arrives in Sydney
    Tony Abbott told to take up London posting with mention of Newspoll

  48. Some GOP senators return from break admitting Obamacare repeal bill is ‘probably dead’

    While many in their party are vowing to fight until the bitter end for the Senate’s bill to “repeal and replace” Obamacare, others are returning from the Fourth of July break admitting that the bill is looking dead on arrival.

    “My view is it’s probably going to be dead,” said Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) to CBS News’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday, according to Politico. “I fear that it’s going to fail.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/some-gop-senators-return-from-break-admitting-obamacare-repeal-bill-is-probably-dead/

  50. Poroti

    I was very annoyed when the failed Hockey was rewarded by a posting to America, but I shall be furious if the destructive Abbott is rewarded in any way. He’s not worth a diplomat’s bootlace and his table manners are not up to standard.

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