BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

A detailed quarterly breakdown of federal voting intention at state level records Labor sagging in Victoria, but still on course for an election-winning swing in Queensland.

First up, please note that we have had the rare treat overnight of a state poll from South Australia, which you can read all about here.

Now to BludgerTrack, and the in-depth look at state-level federal voting intention trends that I lay on at the end of each quarter. First up, the vanilla weekly version of BludgerTrack, which is displayed at the bottom of the post, is inclusive only of the usual result from Essential Research. ReachTEL will have to wait until next week, because I don’t yet have all the data I need from it, and the new fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll won’t make the cut until I have more than one data point to work with. The only change worth noting on the headline numbers is that some of the edge has come off the recent spike to One Nation, although the overall pattern of recovery from a nadir around May is still evident. The Coalition makes a net gain of one on the seat projection, being up one in Victoria and Western Australia. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings.

There has been a very slight trend back to the Coalition over the past three months, but overall the impression has been of consistency on every measure, whether relating to voting intention or leadership. But as illustrated by the detailed quarterly breakdowns, which draw on this week’s breakdowns from Newspoll together with unpublished numbers from Essential, there has been quite a bit going on beneath this deceptively calm surface. Since the last such update three months ago, Labor has gone down 0.6% on two-party preferred, but up four on the seat projection – testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s 0.8% gain has translated into five seats.

It’s in the two biggest states that the Coalition’s modest improvement has been concentrated, particularly in Victoria, where Labor is down 2.7%. This raises the possibility that the heavy weather encountered by Daniel Andrews’ government is causing the party damage federally, which is going unnoticed due to Labor’s strong standing in the state in absolute terms (the swing since the last election is still bigger than New South Wales, off an already stronger base, the state’s limited strategic importance (while more than three times bigger than Queensland’s, the change on the previous quarter has only shifted the seat projection by one) and Labor’s sustained strength elsewhere. South Australia joins Queensland as the other state where Labor has gained ground, and they have tapered off only a little in Western Australia after what was probably an unsustainable peak at the time of the state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

747 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 9 of 15
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  1. ctar1 @ #400 Sunday, July 2, 2017 at 11:48 pm

    Bemused

    To connect a house, they run copper up a power pole and then an aerial wire to the house.

    It’s a bit of a bugger then if there are no poles!

    That is a more recent innovation and of course the connection would be underground and probably through a conduit. That should be even easier as the fibre can be run through the existing conduit. No digging or boring.

    I have long thought that it would make sense to have a multi-channel ‘utilities duct’ running to each house through which all services would run. Note I said ‘mulit-channel’. There are rules about physical separation of services , particularly power, for obvious reasons. One of the beauties of fibre, apart from its communication qualities, is that it is non-conducting (electrical), carries no power so represents no hazard close to gas or water pipes.
    The ducting around offices is 3 channel. Power, voice and data, separated from each other.

  2. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/02/uk-take-back-control-london-fisheries-convention-michael-gove

    This is one of the most reprehensible decisions I’ve seen in a very long time. It is very well stablished in economics and in environmental practice that fisheries resources are best managed on the basis of common or shared sovereignty and access. The rupturing of common access will almost certainly be disastrous for the fisheries involved and for those that depend on them in an economic sense.

    https://theconversation.com/what-would-brexit-really-mean-for-the-uks-fishing-industry-56312

    The Tories are complete idiots.

  3. Bemused,

    Your argument is OK except for your apparent dismissal of speed. It really does matter.

    What I mean here is that argument about speed (and cost) is playing on Turnbull’s terms. He did this deliberately knowing we’d get into a pointless discussion about “do we really need all that speed”, rather than a discussion that starts with “We actually have no choice but to implement future proof technology because anything else will be wasted money”.

    Many Labor politicians have been sucked into this game too. Instead of saying it is bullshit. Its very simple. You build fibre, it lasts 50 years. It pays for itself many times over. That’s all that matters. The fact that fibre will deliver any speed you ask of it for decades, simply reinforces that there was never any other sensible option but fibre. It automatically follows if you don’t build fibre then what you do build will be scrapped and you’ll pay twice over.

    I see the same debates online and the way to shut the Liberal fanboys up is to keep repeating the fact that anything that isn’t fibre, is wasted money.

  4. I’m reminded of a house down the street that not so long ago had a sign on the front lawn saying “Please don’t trip over this wire because its our phone connection”.

  5. This fact on export of our gas always gets me:

    Australia is set to eclipse Qatar as the largest exporter of gas in the world by 2020 but will receive just a fraction of the revenue, $800 million compared to Qatar’s $26.6 billion, under the current arrangements.

    ——-

    ‘It’s a national disgrace’: Federal government slammed on PRRT’

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/its-a-national-disgrace-federal-government-slammed-on-prrt-20170702-gx2vuh.html

  6. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/02/british-officials-drop-cake-and-eat-it-approach-to-brexit-negotiations

    Will the Tories recant on Brexit?

    Government insiders report a dramatic change of mood at the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) since the general election, with growing Treasury influence helping force ministers to choose between prioritising economic interests or sovereignty.

    This is in stark contrast to the public position of both main political parties, first set out in the Theresa May’s Lancaster House speech in January, in which she echoed Boris Johnson’s boast that Britain can “have its cake and eat it” – enjoying full trade access without conceding over immigration, courts and payments. Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn sacked three shadow ministers on Thursday for departing from a similar position.

    The Chancellor, Hammond, has become the leading advocate for compromise. He is opposed by May, Davis, Gove (Murdoch’s pet), Johnson and, hitherto, by Corbyn. He is also an advocate for a relaxation of austerity.

    May wanted to sack Hammond. The election result means she cannot. As a result, the strongest opposition to Brexit is to be found inside the Cabinet. If Hammond wins the argument inside the Tory party he will be in a position to displace May, in which case Hammond, not Corbyn, will become the next PM.

  7. Briefly – Have you noticed that ‘Boris’ seems to have become ‘untrendy’ and usually doesn’t rate a mention in any serious reporting on the current Brexit position.

    Incidently, I recall seeing an interview with Philip Hammond when he became Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs. He seemed a little surprised he’d got as far as being Foreign Minister so being in with a chance to become PM would also be a ‘surprise’.

  8. Renowned satirist John Clarke remembered in final tribute

    Geoffrey Rush, David Wenham and Gina Riley joined a line-up of some of Australia’s biggest names in television to pay a final tribute to renowned satirist John Clarke on Sunday.

    About 2000 people, among them family, friends and fans of the New Zealand-born comedic legend, known for being one-half of the ABC’s long-running satire Clarke & Dawe, packed out the Melbourne Town Hall to farewell the late Clarke in the most fitting fashion possible; with funny people reading aloud things they find funny.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/renowned-satirist-john-clarke-remembered-in-final-tribute-20170702-gx36fh.html

  9. CTar1
    Monday, July 3, 2017 at 6:23 am

    Yup. Boris is a buffoon. Hopefully he will be retired to a market stall somewhere.

    I think it would be unwise to underestimate Hammond. He has clearly read the mood and is unafraid.

  10. 4 Days After White House Claims Trump Never Encourages Violence, Trump Issues Violent Tweet

    On Thursday, White House Deputy Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said that Trump has never promoted violence, but on Sunday, Trump tweeted a video showing him beating up CNN.

    Nothing that comes out of the mouth of anyone who works for this White House can be taken at face value and believed. Trump has a long history of promoting and encouraging violence, and Sunday’s tweet fits into one of Trump’s favorite categories of encouraging violence against journalists and the press.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/02/4-days-white-house-claims-trump-encourages-violence-trump-issues-violent-tweet.html

  11. ‘He’s going to get someone killed’: Ana Navarro blisters Trump over potentially fatal consequences for CNN attack

    Appearing on ABC’s “This Week,” CNN regular Ana Navarro reacted immediately to President Donald Trump’s bizarre Sunday morning tweet showing him physically attacking wrestling entrepreneur Vince McMahon whose face was masked with the CNN logo.

    “He is going to get somebody killed in the media. Maybe that will stop him.”

    “That is what is part of the problem, “Navarro explained. “He is surrounded by enablers that shake their heads and nod their heads at everything he says. They have got to stop. They have got to stand for democracy and for freedom of the press. This is just going way too far. The president of the United States is inciting violence against the free press. In America, we cannot stand for it.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/hes-going-to-get-someone-killed-watch-ana-navarro-blister-trump-over-potentially-fatal-consequences-for-cnn-attack/

  12. SH-Y:

    Taxpayers have forked out almos­t $4000 for Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young and her daughter to go whale watching in the Great Australian Bight.

    The South Australian senator, who wants a ban on oil and gas explorat­ion in the Bight, took the overnight trip last September at a cost to taxpayers of $3874.24.

    This came after veteran environ­mentalist and former Greens leader Bob Brown had just returned from the area.

    ww.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/4k-up-the-spout-for-hansonyoungs-whalewatching-trip-with-daughter/news-story/d09d02e8c0c2a368036a90b3406da0e2

  13. Looking at the online Murdoch organ The SmearStralian to see if Newspoll was revealed, in short, no.

    The readership of this propaganda sheet would be bouyed this morning by:

    – a lead on why clean coal is cheaper than renewable subsidies
    – smearing of Greens SHY over claiming expenses for whale watching
    – the ALP ‘to double top tax rate’
    – the ALP ‘to cast Israel adrift’
    – speculating that Julie Bishop is in the running for PM
    – and opining that all our woes are due to the diminution of Christ in western democracies

    Let’s see which of these fictions are breathlessly picked up by the YoungLib finishing school in the ABC newsroom. They would be better of plagiarising the FairGo web site wich has more integrity than the Smear.

  14. On Sydney Ratbag Radio now….

    Tony Abbott: About to join @AlanJones on @2GB873 to chat about why all members of @LiberalNSW need more of a say.

  15. Sprocket_

    I very much appreciate your summary of the Smear.
    One thought: I think JulieB would prefer to keep her present position. Travelling, shopping, showing off her wardrobe, all on the taxpayer, and no need to get down and dirty with MSM. What’s not to like?

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    To sum up Mark Kenny’s contribution – if Turnbull doesn’t hang on people will laugh t us. How insightful!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/why-australia-needs-malcolm-turnbull-to-survive-20170701-gx2tqt.html
    Urban Wronski reckons Abbott’s attack will finish Turnbull.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/07/03/abbotts-attack-will-finish-turnbull/
    Jess Irvine on the inevitable rises in interest rates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/interest-rate-rises-wont-happen-overnight-but-they-will-happen-20170630-gx2gxo.html
    Clancy Yeates writes that For all the political heat on banks, the last few weeks have shown toxic relations with government are no barrier to an old-fashioned unilateral hike in interest rates. The big difference this time around is banks have been more tactical about it, by targeting rate hikes at one group in particular: property investors.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/property-investors-should-expect-more-interest-rate-pain-20170629-gx1fyp.html
    Richo tells us to not write off the prospect of PM Mesma. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/graham-richardson/bishop-may-be-right-person-to-replace-turnbull/news-story/3b203e250446529099d528eb8f6a13eb
    Phil Coorey reckons Abbott will “keep coming like the bloody Terminator”. Google
    /news/abbott-will-keep-coming-like-the-bloody-terminator-20170702-gx2zrp
    Trump really IS going troppo!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-posts-wwe-meme-showing-him-attacking-a-man-wearing-a-cnn-head-20170702-gx37rc.html
    And now he wants to spike climate science!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/trumps-environment-chief-pushes-effort-to-question-climate-change-science-20170702-gx2v53.html
    The one-year anniversary of Malcolm Turnbull’s election was overshadowed on Sunday by continuing infighting over policy interventions from former Prime Minister Tony Abbott who spent the weekend stoking dissent among NSW’s conservative Liberal base.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbulls-anniversary-party-crashed-by-abbott-firing-up-the-base-20170702-gx31ee.html

  17. Section 2 . . .

    Some realignment at the top in the Vatican?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/pope-ousts-cardinal-in-charge-of-sex-abuse-cases-a-conservative-critic-20170702-gx2v7r.html
    Could this lawsuit bankrupt the CFMEU? Google.
    /news/policy/industrial-relations/lawsuit-against-cfmeu-and-victoria-boss-john-setka-could-bankrupt-union-20170630-gx1w8j
    Individuals and small business taxpayers are still encountering ATO officials who take an “unnecessary, belligerent stance” when it comes to resolving disputes, one of Australia’s largest accounting bodies, Chartered Accountants says.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/ato-takes-unnecessary-belligerent-stance-on-small-business-disputes-submission-20170630-gx1yfh.html
    A former British intelligence officer says he was recruited by a Republican operative with claimed links to the Trump campaign to verify hacked emails belonging to Hillary Clinton.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/07/02/trump-russia-matt-tait/
    Adele Ferguson triumphantly writes that the ACCC will launch an investigation into Aveo. Google.
    http://www.afr.com/business/health/aged-care/accc-to-investigate-aveo-over-contract-terms-and-conduct-20170702-gx2wze
    Amanda Vanstone gets right to the point about the funding for Catholic schools.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-catholics-have-been-getting-more–just-because-theyre-catholic-20170630-gx2dxq.html
    The National Rifle Association of America has defended a controversial new recruitment video that counter-terrorism experts have likened to extremist propaganda. Madness!
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/07/02/nra-defends-gun-video/
    Julia Gillard writes about her work with Beyond Blue.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/julia-gillard-in-many-ways-my-life-has-come-full-circle-20170629-gx14j6.html
    Eryk Bagshaw wonders what the hell is going on with the lack of taxation revenue from our burgeoning gas exports.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/its-a-national-disgrace-federal-government-slammed-on-prrt-20170702-gx2vuh.html

  18. Section 3 . . .

    The fallout from the Grenfell Tower fire is landing closer and closer to the Tories.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/london-mayor-puts-heat-on-conservative-government-over-grenfell-tower-fire-20170702-gx2v8v.html
    Lee Rhiannon describes herself as “road kill” as she explains what has been happening inside the Greens.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-party-room-greens-have-a-bigger-agenda-im-just-road-kill-20170702-gx2zx0.html
    George Williams writes about the problems with Abbott’s “solution” to reform the Senate. He says it would be federation ending. George does offer a solution though.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbotts-solution-to-senate-deadlock-has-its-own-problems-20170630-gx1y8c.html
    Steph Peatling on the court case that could see the release of the Buckingham Palace papers from Whitlam’s dismissal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australias-most-enduring-political-mystery-20170629-gx11hk.html
    India has cancelled the registration of more than 100,000 companies which were “in violation of laws”, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, in the latest effort by the government against “black money” and tax evasion. Well THAT’S what you call action!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/indias-narendra-modi-cancells-registration-of-100000-companies-20170702-gx32dx.html
    Thousands of workers turned up for their first shifts at lower hourly rates after the Fair Work Commission decision to cut penalty rates came into play on Sunday. The occasion was marked across the country by protests from unions railing against the decision handed down in February.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/workers-take-home-lower-pay-after-first-day-of-penalty-rate-cuts-20170702-gx2zot.html
    Van Badham writes on who won the battle on penalty rates. Top hats versus bread loaves.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/02/pay-cuts-pit-workers-against-business-greed-and-guess-whos-won-under-turnbull
    Number 10 officials are “on alert” for a flying visit to the UK by US President Donald Trump.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/07/02/donald-trump-could-make-unexpected-snap-visit-to-the-uk-this-mon_a_23012501/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Zoe Williams says that it’s no accident that nationalism has made a comeback contemporaneously with a rise in homophobia.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/02/homophobia-nationalism-china-us-difference

  19. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    So Pell’s legal costs will be conservative crowd funded.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/sydney-archbishop-anthony-fisher-backs-george-pell-but-wont-pay-legal-bills-20170702-gx2y2k.html

    Matt Golding with Trump setting the bar for public officials.

    Mark David and “clean coal”,

    Yet another TIME front cover.

    Cathy Wilcox and Direct Action.

    Matt Golding and the bollards on Sydney streets.

    Magnificent work from David Rowe – right down to the coal at Abbott’s feet.

    Matt Davidson and the evolution of the political dinosaurs in Victoria.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/illustrations-by-matthew-davidson-20090928-g8gc.html
    Ron Tandberg takes pity on the attention seeking Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Jon Kudelka introduces the concept of Twitcon levels in the White House.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8edfd4a8a203c5e584d83294aeb77ca0

  20. Sprocket

    Not a keen reader of it but couldn’t resist doing a ‘reverse Pegusus’ by picking that quote out of an article that seemed to have not much going for it. {grin}

    And how surprising is it that the Australian would run

    a lead on why clean coal is cheaper than renewable subsidies

  21. Oh good, it worked. I reckon that a lot of the current problems we have is that many of those in power or on whom we rely for the things that make our lives liveable and dare I say, happy, are people who have a comfortable ‘fall-back’ position in life.
    I first came to this conclusion as a coach of junior rugby teams at a private school where kids would enjoy their rugby but if they were up against the local catholic “battler’s” school team, they could see mum and dad sitting in the Beamer on the sideline and knew that even if they lost, they would be whisked off to a comfortable situation after the game and “it really isn’t going to matter if we lose”.
    Turdball is no different, it looks like it is becoming too hard, so he’ll take his bat, ball, kit, etc and go home to Point Piper or wherever and play with his Cayman Is. trust account.
    There are very few battlers in our government and as PJK famously quoted Jack Lang, “back the horse called self interest, the jockey is the only one trying (or wtte)”

  22. It was only a matter of time before Melbourne’s creatives took things into their own hands.

    Mr Doyle said he was a “fan of anything that brightens up the city”, and Victorian creative industries minister Martin Foley said he wasn’t surprised people were using the bollards as “an opportunity for artistic expression”.

    University of Melbourne associate professor of art Christopher Marshall said the adornments struck a chord with the public because they were not commissioned.

    “I think it’s very beautiful that this spontaneous form of art has happened without anybody being able to control it,” he said.

    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/art-and-design/melbourne-arts/bollart-brightens-melbournes-dark-memories-20170701-gx2kzb.html

  23. The readership of this propaganda sheet would be bouyed this morning by:

    – a lead on why clean coal is cheaper than renewable subsidies
    – smearing of Greens SHY over claiming expenses for whale watching
    – the ALP ‘to double top tax rate’
    – the ALP ‘to cast Israel adrift’
    – speculating that Julie Bishop is in the running for PM
    – and opining that all our woes are due to the diminution of Christ in western democracies

    ******************
    Christ, what a load of rubbish. I’m glad I declined my complimentary copy of the GG before I boarded my flight this morning.

  24. Sunday, July 2, 2017 at 11:53 am
    Brexit
    … my personal fav this week was an image of a French school book/ map showing the quaint island incorporating Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England off the coast of EUrope outside of the EU.
    Real soon now the colonial Union Jack will also disappear from the flag downunder.
    It sounds like celebs about Brexit from Hong Kong in 1997 are underway.
    My all time fav is tomorrow’s party commemorating Brexit from New Netherland of 1776.

  25. Crikey

    The Sydney Morning Herald reports on the union backlash on the first Sunday shift with the lower rate of pay, while The Age spoke to hospitality workers about their feelings. It wasn’t all bad news, though, with The Australian speaking to a small business owner who is considering hiring a new employee thanks to the cuts, while maintaining Sunday rates are still too high.

    I wonder how hard it was to find a small business owner who is ‘considering’ hiring a new employee. Only considering, mind!

  26. Good point by Amanda (I rarely agree with her).

    What if a bill was put before Parliament that varied your access to welfare depending on your religion? Rightly there would be an uproar. In essence that’s what has been happening in education funding. The Catholics have been getting more just because they’re Catholic. The Catholic education system has had a golden handshake from successive governments for a very long time.

  27. Thanks BK
    The more I hear of Lee Rhiannon, the more I agree with her.
    The Labor Party could benefit from her message of de-corporatisation of politics as well.
    If so, they might enjoy more than the current tenuous lead in the polls, against the most incompetent government in 100 years, that they currently enjoy.

  28. lizzie

    Except I think that the premise is the wrong way around: the money is being provided to educational facilities, which happen to be run by the Catholic church, in the same way money is provided to hospitals which happen to be run by the Uniting Church or the Anglicans or private interests with no religious affiliation at all.

  29. TS

    Yeah, a state branch which has only been able to elect one Senator when others have elected multiples is the one you’d look to for guidance on improving your numbers…

  30. Grimace

    The HELE coal plant, which the Turnbull government has not ruled out funding, would produce electricity at $40-$78 per megawatt hour, compared with gas at $69-$115/MWh and solar at $90-$171. The 550-page technical study, commissioned by the Minerals Council of Australia and the COAL21 Fund, reveals that clean-coal plants would drive down energy­ prices, and offers the Prime Minister an economic blueprint on the viability of new coal-fired ­stations.

    This wonderful and objective essay, funded by Coal Central, unfortunately seems to use bullshit numbers. Possibly from 1956?
    They also seem to have forgotten the cost of carbon pollution.
    Someone should write to them, explain the situation in 2017, and gently explain that they need to write their essay again.

  31. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Great to see Dogs Breakfast has decoded the password into the Bludger Lounge! Welcome back. 🙂

    So, I have decided that I will try and find a good news story each day to counteract the Trumpiness-induced global malaise.

    Here’s one that I think Lizzie will like especially:

    In the wake of President Trump’s decision to remove America from the Paris Climate agreement, you’d be forgiven for feeling a little negative about the future of the planet.

    With reports of huge cracks appearing in the Antarctic ice, fears that preventing the two degree heating of the planet might be a pipe dream, and the world’s food supplies at risk – everything looks and sounds grim.

    Fortunately though, there are some good news stories on the horizon; with many of them coming from China. The country has been leading the way when it comes to ‘green living’ in recent years, with the government announcing it had completed construction of the world’s largest floating solar farm. Now, in an attempt to curb the production of toxic gasses, the country is continuing to pave the way (so to speak) with the construction of one of the world’s first ‘forest cities’.

    https://www.indy100.com/article/forest-city-china-air-pollution-town-trees-liuzhou-stefano-boeri-climate-change-paris-agreement-7809736?utm_source=indy&utm_medium=top5&utm_campaign=i100

  32. ctar1 @ #405 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 5:41 am

    This fact on export of our gas always gets me:

    Australia is set to eclipse Qatar as the largest exporter of gas in the world by 2020 but will receive just a fraction of the revenue, $800 million compared to Qatar’s $26.6 billion, under the current arrangements.

    ——-

    ‘It’s a national disgrace’: Federal government slammed on PRRT’

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/its-a-national-disgrace-federal-government-slammed-on-prrt-20170702-gx2vuh.html

    Part of the reason is that we are much further up the cost curve, so there’s less profit to tax (which is also going to be a shit for our gas companies if there’s a fall in gas prices).

  33. Has Trog decided to practice his comedy routine in the Bludger lounge today?

    The Labor Party could benefit from her message of de-corporatisation of politics as well.
    If so, they might enjoy more than the current tenuous lead in the polls, against the most incompetent government in 100 years, that they currently enjoy.

    So, a Labor lead in the polls rising 44 Newspolls now(30 Abbott + 14 Turnbull), is ‘tenuous’, Trog?

    Pull the other one mate, it plays Jingle Bells! 😀

  34. Zoomster
    Yeah, a state branch which has only been able to elect one Senator when others have elected multiples is the one you’d look to for guidance on improving your numbers…
    I wouldn’t have a clue about Green’s internal politics. What I do know is that voters are twigging to the issue of inequality. We are in a time of massive technological, environmental and – shortly – social upheaval, and the rise of social media is diluting big capital’s stranglehold on communications.
    Meanwhile, the mainstream political parties, including the Greens, have been going backwards.
    Time to update the message, I would have thought.

  35. C@

    He’s doing the Rex thing — Labor should be leading by at least another 3 per cent!!

    Ignores political realities, in particular how hard it is to shift votes regardless, and the negativity of the media.

  36. Trog

    Right, so you made a throw away line which doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

    Messages should be adopted which have a chance of working. If a message or approach has been tried and doesn’t ‘work’, then it’s useless adopting it.

    In this case, the NSW Greens have been run the way they’re run for over a decade, and are generally recognised as a poor performing branch electorally – despite having lots of money, lots of members, and plenty of opportunities (a left of centre party in NSW, where Labor has struggled one way or another for a couple of decades, should be hauling in the votes).

    By your metric, they’re the ones who should be changing their message.

  37. C@t
    Turnbull has passed bugger all legislation, continued to push major elements of the most punitive reverse Robin Hood budget, and is still only a couple of points behind.
    If Turnbull were to start pushing policies in which he actually believes, and survive the inevitable LNP internal knife attack, then the Labor lead would disappear like the morning mist (see Hosea 13:3).

  38. Morning all.

    The Lib troubles are deeper than commentators imagine.

    So from where will change come? Unlikely from Abbott’s phoney Conservative Agenda which is going nowhere even with Liberal supporters, and highly unlikely from Bernardi’s more authentic Conservative Agenda, which may have allowed him to suck up fringe Senators desperate for funding, but when electorally combined, as seen in his home state, is proving that 1+1=1.

    More likely change will come from two sources. Internationally, the US, the stabiliser of the 20th century is proving the destabiliser of the 21st, whether intentionally or not. No matter what brave face the Europeans put on it, the climate change agenda has been dealt a blow by Trump’s decision to leave the Paris Accords, only underlined by the laughable suggestion that the mantle will be taken up by China, who killed the Copenhagen talks, agreed to the Paris Accords only if it doesn’t need to do anything for years, and can’t even stop the unnecessary choking of its citizens in Beijing (including the party elite in the compound) even if it wanted to. There must surely be a temptation on the Liberal right to follow the US and make climate change an even greater touchstone for mobilising against the moderates than it was in 2009.

    And, of course, the second destabiliser of this stalemate could be the one that caused such political headaches in 2016, and is still reverberating, but as yet has not really impacted the Australian political scene – a change in the public mood.

    http://www.pipingshrike.com/2017/07/no-resurrection-an-update.html

  39. ‘If Turnbull were to start pushing policies in which he actually believes..’

    Um, yeah, basic problem there….and, of course, “If” is a bigger word than you think.

    “If” all of these things were to happen, Labor would change its tactics to meet the new circumstances, so it’s not necessarily a given that it would be wiped out.

    We played the ‘if’ game a lot when Gillard was Prime Minister, with far more justification.

  40. What is truly unbelievable is that nobody, and I mean nobody, is talking about challenging Tone’s pre-selection. He is a cancer destroying the liberal party and nobody can operate. That says everything you want to know about the liberal party.

  41. trog sorrenson @ #432 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 8:14 am

    Thanks BK
    The more I hear of Lee Rhiannon, the more I agree with her.
    The Labor Party could benefit from her message of de-corporatisation of politics as well.
    If so, they might enjoy more than the current tenuous lead in the polls, against the most incompetent government in 100 years, that they currently enjoy.

    The one thing the Greens need to consider, if they move right they risk moving into the part of the political spectrum controlled by Labor.

    I don’t see any advantages in that for anyone except the Right.

  42. Trog,
    Still with the comedy routine?

    Turnbull has passed bugger all legislation, continued to push major elements of the most punitive reverse Robin Hood budget, and is still only a couple of points behind.

    A ‘couple of points behind’ is 51-49. NOT 53-47, on average.

    The ‘Reverse Robin Hood Budget’ stuff, may be continuously being pushed by the Turnbull crew, but the $65 Billion in Tax Cuts is going just like a car trying to gain traction as it spins it’s wheels in political quicksand. It’s going nowhere fast. In fact, all it has succeeded in doing is to give Bill Shorten and Labor a killer cut-through line.

    As for ‘passing bugger-all legislation’, that is true of Turnbull. However, with the MSM firmly onside, it is being made to seem like it’s raining legislative manna from heaven for the nation.

    Nevertheless, Labor are still ahead, on average, 53-47, and 44 Newspolls and counting. That’s the truth of the matter, Trog. No joke!

  43. BiGD,
    The one thing the Greens need to consider, if they move right they risk moving into the part of the political spectrum controlled by Labor.

    I don’t see any advantages in that for anyone except the Right.

    EXCEPT if you combine it with this snippet of information from Urban Wronski today(the veracity of which I am unsure about):

    Bugger consensus politics. Di Natale generously tells the Left Renewal faction their anti-capitalist rhetoric is ridiculous and that they should join another party. Critics accuse Di Natale of shaping The Greens into a potential coalition partner for the Liberals; point to his record of support for Coalition legislation.

    Interesting, no?

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