ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll finds voters favouring Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott for the Liberal leadership by a two-to-one ratio, with Labor maintaining a moderate lead on voting intention.

A new poll conducted for ReachTEL by Sky News gives Labor a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which is down from 53-47 at the last such poll on May 11. At the moment, primary vote figures are limited to the first question which allowed for an undecided response, which comes in a 7.1% – I assume the undecided were then given a forced response question, to which we don’t yet have the results. If the undecided are simply excluded from the available numbers, the results are Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.6%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 9.8%.

An all-or-nothing question on the Liberal leadership breaks 68.3-31.7 in favour of Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott, while Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 54.1-45.9 as preferred prime minister. Turnbull’s combined very good plus good rating is “just under 27%”, compared with 36.5% for poor or very poor. Same-sex marriage has 62.4% supportive and 25.9% opposed, with most believing the matter should be determined by a plebiscite, and 64.1% believe penalty rates should be higher on Sundays than Saturdays. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 2389.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

610 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. lizzie @ #317 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 9:44 am

    Bemused
    I shall be very relieved when you abandon your obsession with Confessions. It’s very childish. You accuse her when she isn’t even involved.

    This was one of the rare occasions that it wasn’t her persistent jibes that got the ball rolling. It was largely Kezza2.

  3. I don’t understand those, including the Bernier Bros type obsession with their leaders being stone poor broke, there is surely an element of balance where you don’t have to have this absolute pathetic hate for leaders who gave much and then managed to make some money. Now there is some truth in the observation that rather being an indication of virtue the accumulation of excessive wealth is probably a sign of lack of virtue, but notwithstanding that surely really talented leaders can be forgiven for falling on the wealthy side of average.

  5. Bob Hawke has ended up far too rich considering his work history.

    He was paid a decent salary for most of his working life and he was working during a period when simply having a steady, decent wage meant you had choices. Smart people turn that into something that is sustained once they retire.

  6. Hazel came across as a good person, but that’s not an excuse to label Blanche a floozy.

    Well said. Why is it that it’s the woman on the side who is blamed when a married man strays and not the married man?

  7. puff, the magic dragon. @ #366 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 2:06 pm

    Ok, has the Glorification of St Kevin finished for the week? Did I miss the Witchducking of Julia Gillard Ritual?
    You know, the stuff where all is forgiven and explained away for our male Patron Saint of Unity and Honour, and every glimpse of Julia Our First Female PM’s petticoat is punished with stoning?
    It isn’t just about what each did or didn’t do, it is how it was received, interpreted and judged.
    In other words, the usual misogynist shit,

    What a demented rant!
    Are you feeling OK Puff?

  8. bemused

    ‘Delusions of grandeur.
    It was clearly not addressed to you but to William.’

    Der, thicky thicky thicky. The original post, to which William referred.

    Even you should have been able to work out something that straightforward.

  9. You know what I find interesting about Bemused’s schtick? It reminds me of Donald Trump. As Sarah Huckabee-Sanders said, wtte, ‘When he’s hit, he hits back harder’. Especially against women he doesn’t like, or women who defend those women.

    It’s not an edifying sight. But there you go. Old White Men unable to change their ways. Plus ca change.

    On the other hand, sometimes they can be very charming. They reserve the right to choose which persona they adopt though.

    Sad. 🙂

    p.s. Bemused. Don’t bother. It will fall on entirely deaf ears.

  10. Bemused

    She committed an unprecedented act of treachery and was a poor leader unable to win the support of the electorate. In other words, a dud as a politician. She may have other good qualities.

    So Julia hid a stiletto in her skirt and there was no one else involved? You are so bitter and illogical in defence of your hero, aren’t you? Julia was the one who begged for Rudd to be given another three months. Remember? But the ‘group’ insisted she told him that night. And he had so few supporters amongst the other MPs at that time that he didn’t have the courage to call for a spill, which would have proved that he had lost their support.

    Julia was “unable to win the support of the electorate” because Rudd deliberately used every tool in his devious little kit (including Julie Bishop, his family – remember Jessica?- and the MSM) to bring her down whenever she looked like having a win. Many of the media are now admitting his white-anting. He also gathered a group of “cardinals” to support him, no doubt by promising them ministries.

    Like zoomster, I was a great supporter of Rudd until I realised what he was doing.

    “She may have other good qualities.”
    You slip this in as your usual method of pretending that you are fair.

    Now do one of your silly ripostes as you did to Puff.

  11. Yes C@t when Bemused said he was left on some issues and right on others, and listed them, I thought “No you’re just a standard 1950s Grumpy Old Man on the latter ones. As if Cocky Calwell had never died.”

  12. C@t:

    I pegged him as PB’s version of Donald Trump yonks ago. The MO is identical, as is the misogyny, the bullying, the sexism, and the Old White Man Entitlement Factor that he thinks he can say and do whatever he wants with zero accountability for his comments. Even William responds to him with disdain and sarcasm.

  14. zoomster @ #408 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 5:47 pm

    bemused
    ‘Delusions of grandeur.
    It was clearly not addressed to you but to William.’
    Der, thicky thicky thicky. The original post, to which William referred.
    Even you should have been able to work out something that straightforward.

    I quoted William’s post to which I was responding.
    I understand your need for attention, but I was not giving you any.

  16. jack a randa @ #411 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 6:02 pm

    Yes C@t when Bemused said he was left on some issues and right on others, and listed them, I thought “No you’re just a standard 1950s Grumpy Old Man on the latter ones. As if Cocky Calwell had never died.”

    Funny I never recall making such a post. You must have imagined it.

  18. Sorry Bemused – may have been Briefly. You sometimes have similar attitudes. And I met Blanche a couple of times and think I’d better not comment.

  19. lizzie @ #410 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 5:58 pm
    Lizzie, one of the traditional roles of a deputy has been to watch the leaders back and to keep the leader in touch with Caucus members and what they are thinking.
    Lance Barnard was an excellent model for this. Other deputies since have pretty much followed this model, until Gillard.
    When the plotters include the deputy then it is clear the deputy has been disloyal.
    When the leader is ambushed, then they have been let down by the deputy.
    Rudd did apparently get wind that something might be afoot and had one of his staffers make some inquiries. There were screams of outrage, but with hindsight he should have persisted.

  20. jack a randa @ #418 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    Sorry Bemused – may have been Briefly. You sometimes have similar attitudes. And I met Blanche a couple of times and think I’d better not comment.

    Hahaha… that is funny. I think it was Kezza who was just yesterday attacking me for allegedly attacking Briefly and you are saying we have similar attitudes. Pardon my confusion! Actually, you are closer to the mark than Kezza was. I mostly do agree with Briefly, but am not afraid to air our differences.
    You met Blanche a couple of times? Commiserations.

  23. A brilliant collection of Time magazine covers featuring Trump:

    Indeed. I’ve been tossing up in the back of my mind about subscribing to the Washington Post but they are much more expensive than the NY Times so I haven’t gone there.

  25. Nappin
    “I am sure this is the same conversation that was going on when I was here last time ….. quite some time ago.”

    Yes, I think that it would be good for everyone if Bemused took a break from his incessant posting.
    Aint going to happen though when he’s getting all this attention.

  26. adrian @ #425 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 6:28 pm

    Nappin
    “I am sure this is the same conversation that was going on when I was here last time ….. quite some time ago.”
    Yes, I think that it would be good for everyone if Bemused took a break from his incessant posting.
    Aint going to happen though when he’s getting all this attention.

    Hilarious.
    Plenty post more than I do.

  28. Alice in Wonderland?
    Another, perhaps more appropriate quote “We’re all mad here” (or something along those lines)

  31. Had a great day today attending a ‘Beginners on Stage’ performance of kids between 5 and 7 in which one of my granddaughters was a performer.
    Fantastic for building kids confidence.

  33. Will, do you have a master search engine that can count the number of posts that people make here? I suspect Bemused’s tally equals those of Zoomster, Lizzie and Vic because he has to bite back at everything any of them say. But I could be wrong.

  34. jack a randa @ #433 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 6:46 pm

    Will, do you have a master search engine that can count the number of posts that people make here? I suspect Bemused’s tally equals those of Zoomster, Lizzie and Vic because he has to bite back at everything any of them say. But I could be wrong.

    Ummm, I think you would find I mostly agree with them.

  35. Electricity wars .. that sparks my interest.

    Believe me it wouldn’t if you’d experienced the obsessive minutiae explored in much detail here.

  36. So bemused, you’d rather confirm my opinion that you’re as thick as P1 (sorry, P1), then work out which post I (and William) were referring to?

    It’s quite a simple exercise. It wouldn’t take the average infant more than 20% of its brainpower to work it out. But apparently it is totally beyond you.

  37. zoomster @ #436 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 6:55 pm

    So bemused, you’d rather confirm my opinion that you’re as thick as P1 (sorry, P1), then work out which post I (and William) were referring to?
    It’s quite a simple exercise. It wouldn’t take the average infant more than 20% of its brainpower to work it out. But apparently it is totally beyond you.

    I know damn well which post William was referring to.
    And a very fine post it was too!

  38. Well, on that note of community harmony (!) I’m off to my warm bedroom.
    Six degrees was too much to bear, today. Brrrrrr!

  41. Gillard’s greatest weakness – and like most weaknesses, it can also be portrayed as a strength – was her willingness to believe people could change. She supported Rudd for the leadership initially (remember, she had more supporters than he did, even then) on the belief that his various faults would be tempered once he got what he wanted.

    She was wrong, of course (mainly because people like Rudd never do get what they want; when they get what they thought they wanted, they don’t value it, and want to move on to something else…but take it away from them, and all of a sudden…)

  42. Right, bemused, so now that you’ve miraculously worked out which post we’re talking about, I repeat: why was I one of the people it was addressed to, given that I have never made the claims you outlined in your explanation of it to William?

    (I hope that makes it clear enough for you what I’m talking about, but take your time – I’d rather not get out the crayons).

  43. Lizzie:

    It’s been quite cold here too, with snow forecast for the Stirling Ranges. The temp has dropped considerably in the last hour or so. Good night.

  45. Zoom:

    Gillard’s weakness was that she supported and backed a weak candidate for the leadership. Just as we’ve seen with the Abbott Liberals and the Trump Republicans, Labor chose a leader who could win them an election, not govern effectively in the national interest. Unlike the Abbott Liberals and the Trump Republicans, at least Gillard was someone who could step up and govern in the national interest.

  50. ‘Fess,
    I’ve been tossing up in the back of my mind about subscribing to the Washington Post but they are much more expensive than the NY Times so I haven’t gone there.

    Like you with the NYT, I lucked into a special offer rate for subscription to the WashPo of $20/year, as long as I keep on renewing it every year. Sounded like an offer to good to refuse. So I decided to support them. I also liked their byline:
    ‘Democracy Dies In Darkness’.

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