ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll finds voters favouring Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott for the Liberal leadership by a two-to-one ratio, with Labor maintaining a moderate lead on voting intention.

A new poll conducted for ReachTEL by Sky News gives Labor a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which is down from 53-47 at the last such poll on May 11. At the moment, primary vote figures are limited to the first question which allowed for an undecided response, which comes in a 7.1% – I assume the undecided were then given a forced response question, to which we don’t yet have the results. If the undecided are simply excluded from the available numbers, the results are Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.6%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 9.8%.

An all-or-nothing question on the Liberal leadership breaks 68.3-31.7 in favour of Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott, while Turnbull leads Bill Shorten 54.1-45.9 as preferred prime minister. Turnbull’s combined very good plus good rating is “just under 27%”, compared with 36.5% for poor or very poor. Same-sex marriage has 62.4% supportive and 25.9% opposed, with most believing the matter should be determined by a plebiscite, and 64.1% believe penalty rates should be higher on Sundays than Saturdays. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 2389.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

610 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. “Just because we’re not going to church doesn’t mean there’s not a new sort of religion to hold us in its thrall.”
    Why do people who are religious need to assume everyone else needs religion too. We all want a sense of the spiritual – or at least a sense of meaning that gives our life purpose – I might get it from planning public transport that will in some ways make a small part of the world a better place. We also all want a sense of belonging – a group we identify with. But it does not have to be religious, and certainly does not have to be in an organised religion with a power structure.

    A certain trial is about to commence soon in this country that illustrates much of what is wrong with such things in my opinion. Put simply, religious power structures are too open to abuse by fallible human beings, and too often emempted from normal processes of accountability for their actions.

  2. I also preferred Keating to Hawke (and Gillard and Rudd). I do not want to dump on Hawke because he was a skilled politician. But apart from being too far to the right, Hawke was the beneficiary of a victory platform that had been laid for him by Hayden in my opinion. Keating by contrast had much tougher battles to win following the recession.

    Have a good day all.

  3. Sorry that was “too often exempted from accountability”. I’m sure you can think of an example of the sort of person I mean.

  4. Lizzie

    Centrelink’s definition of fraudster can be expanded ad infinitum. This is dangerous stuff.

    Yes. I noticed the agencies using it declined to say ‘what for’.

    Fraud, I’d say true, but also think that it’s use is most likely only for agency internal employees purposes.

    I am certainly not in favour of it and want to hear in what circumstances they would use this software.

    If it gets to that point, I think, it should be the AFP conducting the investigation.

  5. William at 3;46 am

    Bemused, I’ve generally been rather a critic of Kevin Rudd’s, but now that you’ve pasted a slab of text and bolded the bit with his name in it, I think I might have come round.
    ———————-
    Pure gold William! Can I join the line of bludgers wanting to marry you? Of course the posse of prejudiced purveyors of wedding cakes could be a problem, but I have a cunning plan [Hint: Maxine Max….]. Suffer in your downsized jocks GG…

  6. Quite obviously the CPG and the MSM generally are flailing around in the dark over Abbott vs Turnbull. Today’s wide variety of opinionated pieces (Abbott full steam ahead, Abbott doesn’t have a hope, Turnbull on the offensive to regain votes etc) show that they have no more inside knowledge than you or I.

    Perhaps the other writers will join Massola soon and mention that Shorten has started talking about what he will do in his first 100 days of office.

  7. I’ve generally been rather a critic of Kevin Rudd’s, but now that you’ve pasted a slab of text and bolded the bit with his name in it, I think I might have come round.

    LOL too funny!

  8. Thanks BK. PvO seems to be getting more and more annoyed with the Liberal party antics with each passing column!

  9. The bottom line is the RGR war gave us Abbott. He was never popular. The nation wanted the RGR war to end.
    The Labor party didn’t or wouldn’t do it so the nation did. The Labor party shot itself in the foot.
    The Libs are doing the same thing. The result for them will be the same.

  10. confessions @ #257 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 2:11 am

    I’d like to know why the RGR protagonists have such a facination with continuing the RGR wars.

    It’s clearly an obsession for them and something they obviously take personally, going to the enth degree in order to get their point in. They are like Rex Douglas with their obsession.

    Probably the most unintentionally hilarious statement ever made on PB by the main protagonist.

  11. greg mcauliffe @ #309 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 9:25 am

    The bottom line is the RGR war gave us Abbott. He was never popular. The nation wanted the RGR war to end.
    The Labor party didn’t or wouldn’t do it so the nation did. The Labor party shot itself in the foot.
    The Libs are doing the same thing. The result for them will be the same.

    The other bottom line is if the loser accepts the decision and walks away you don’t have the potential for this undermining inspired purely by their bent ego.

  12. ‘Probably the most unintentionally hilarious statement ever made on PB by the main protagonist.’

    bemused, you know how people here talk of your lack of self awareness…? Well, you totally won’t understand the point of this post….

  13. william bowe @ #261 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 3:46 am

    Bemused, I’ve generally been rather a critic of Kevin Rudd’s, but now that you’ve pasted a slab of text and bolded the bit with his name in it, I think I might have come round.

    It is never too late to mend your ways!
    More seriously, I am critical of some of his actions too.
    I posted that as we get a persistent, mendacious claim repeated on this site that he doesn’t have any positions post politics and is some kind of a pariah.
    That article is from Wharton University in the US. It illustrates that he is taken seriously and his opinions valued.

  14. ‘I posted that as we get a persistent, mendacious claim repeated on this site that he doesn’t have any positions post politics and is some kind of a pariah.’

    So why address that post to me? I’ve never made any such claim.

  15. Bemused

    I shall be very relieved when you abandon your obsession with Confessions. It’s very childish. You accuse her when she isn’t even involved.

  16. The concluding remarks from PvO:

    Keep an eye on senior conservatives such as Peter Dutton (factional leader of the right), Mathias Cormann (soon to be Senate ­leader for the government) and Christian Porter and Josh Frydenberg (future party leaders if they retain their seats). This lot are conservatives to a man and they are serious players in the ­parliamentary Liberal Party, not interested in the cheap games Christopher Pyne’s stupidity sparked this week. When they start to move against Turnbull then he’ll have a problem.

    How unsurprisement that there isn’t a woman among them.

  17. Trump’s latest Tweet

    SAD Mika and Crazy Joe better stop spreading FAKE NEWS or North Korea gets it.

    (just kidding)

  18. Confessions

    PvO seems to be getting more and more annoyed with the Liberal party antics with each passing column

    Probably annoyed at it increasing the chances for a (gasp!) Labor government.

  19. bk @ #282 Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 8:15 am

    Gas Shortage? What shortage, asks IEEFA analyst Bruce Robertson in Part 1 of his analysis of who the big losers are in the East Coast gas debacle.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/gas-shortage-what-gas-shortage/

    The truth behind our ‘gas shortage’ …

    “Unfortunately, thanks to an uneconomic contract signed to underpin a second train at Gladstone, it appears more than 70 per cent of Santos’s production from the iconic Cooper Basin (where discoveries 50 years ago built the company) is now being sold to the Gladstone LNG plant at well below what could be achieved domestically.

    And its GLNG partners, which are said to be buying the gas from Santos at just $3.50 to $4 per gigajoule at current depressed oil prices, are apparently in no mood to help it out of that situation.”

    … is that as a nation we are shortsighted, greedy and stupid.

  20. So not much has changed, here or in the US since yesterday.

    More Abbott, Turnbull, Abbott agitation and the associated media confused frenzy.

    More Trump idiocy.

    I despair that the leaders of the world are completely bonkers, or more likely, self-serving narcissists

  21. Reading the GG, the only explanations you hear for high gas and electricity prices generally are
    * state restrictions on gas exploration.
    * the renewable energy target.
    That is all.

  22. This is a good article from medium (from Mother Jones), on technology and it’s impact on income and wealth disparity.
    “Facebook’s Not Designed to Create A ‘Global Community’” https://medium.com/mother-jones/facebooks-not-designed-to-create-a-global-community-d521d8f9221a
    Some quotes :
    “Technology is nothing but an expression of human values. It’s not neutral, it’s not about efficiency, it’s about people’s values and their knowledge. If you share information widely, but you present that information in ways that fits your own view, you’re actually still misrepresenting.”

    On income :
    “Instagram was sold to Facebook for $1 billion with 13 employees in the Bay Area. In the same year, Kodak, which had employed more than 40,000 people, was bankrupt. What is happening in a digital economy where 40,000 people lose their jobs and 13 people become super millionaires?”

  23. Lizzie
    Saturday, July 1, 2017 at 9:54 am
    “I understand that maths was not Abbott’s strong suit.

    :large”

    ..brilliant!! ..thanx for sharing, Lizzie. Shows Abbott to be so ignorant, he doesn’t know that he doesn’t know ..Lol!!

  24. Great comment on Mike Secombe’s story in the Saturday Paper this morning:

    Paul Barratt‏ @phbarratt 20m20 minutes ago
    Even with boxing, [Tony Abbott] couldn’t be bothered to find out anything about it.

  25. ‘fess

    On the quote you put up from the PvO article one point. He’s is, I think, right in the names to watch but I doubt that Frydenberg is anywhere as hard line right as Porter or Dutton.

    I’ve not got much or any time for him but I’d say as a junior he may be trying to demonstrate that he’ll do what he’s told to do.

  26. Ides:

    Not for the first time I’m wondering how Melania feels about all the misogynistic things Trump says about women. Does she feel embarrassed that she is married to such a sexist pig? How do Trump’s daughters feel about his remarks?

  27. CTar:

    I don’t know much about Frydenberg’s politics, but he’s never struck me as particularly sharp. More of a Dutton-lite than anything else.

  28. On the topics of conservatives and moderates, I saw an SMH article saying that Concietta Feveranti-Wells was a moderate???

  29. Scott Pruitt, the head of the Environmental Protection Agency, plans to convene a team of researchers to test the scientific premise of human-caused climate change, he told coal industry executives on Thursday.

    Speaking at a board meeting of the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, a lobbying group for coal companies and their industry allies, Mr. Pruitt said his staff had already begun preparations for a “red team-blue team” exercise to challenge mainstream climate science, according to two people who attended the meeting but were not authorized to speak about it publicly.

    The initiative, first reported by E&E News, is the latest in a series of moves at the E.P.A. that critics say is undermining the role of academic research at the agency charged with protecting the nation’s environment and public health.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/30/climate/scott-pruitt-climate-change-red-team.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

  30. The banks and their business friends, supported by Murdoch’s Advertiser, have whipped up a frenetic campaign against SA Labor’s bank tax.
    The protest seems to be bearing fruit. A Galaxy poll in the Tiser today shows 28% in favour of the tax, 55% opposed and 17% uncommitted.
    Labor voters are 52% in favour, 32% against and 16% uncommitted.
    Liberal voters are 32% in favour, 76% and 9% uncommitted.
    Mind you, respondents were asked a loaded question:
    “In the recent State Budget, the Treasurer, Tom Koutsantonis, announced the introduction of a new major bank tax that is estimated will raise $370 million over four years. Some analysts say the banks will pass this tax on to their customers through higher fees and charges. On balance, are you in favour or opposed to this new bank tax?”
    Opposition leader Steven Marshall initially announced he would not oppose passage of the Budget through parliament but he’s coming under immense pressure to stop the tax in the upper house, where Xenophon and Conservative (formerly Family First) members have spoken out against the tax.

  31. Hi William
    As of next Friday my current PB email will be made redundant. Do I need to set up a new account with my new email or is there some way to change my existing account
    Thanks
    David

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