YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor

The debut entry from a new federal poll series finds low primary support for the major parties and an unusually tight race on two-party preferred – although it would be a different story if preferences flowed as they did at last year’s election.

As reported here in early May, British-based market research giant YouGov has entered the Australian federal polling game, in conjunction with Australian communications agency Fifty Acres. After reporting attitudinal polling on a fortnightly basis over recent months, the pollster has produced its first set of voting intention numbers, which are exclusively related below.

First though, a few points about methodology. The poll is conducted through an online panel, similar to Essential Research, and indeed an increasingly dominant share of public opinion polls internationally. The polling is conducted fortnightly from Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of a bit over 1000 respondents (1125 in the case of the latest survey), drawn from its pool of survey volunteers.

With respect to voting intention, respondents are presented with a mock ballot paper featuring (together with party logos) Coalition options that vary by state, Labor, the Greens, One Nation, Nick Xenophon Team, Katter’s Australian Party, a generic option for “Christian parties”, and “other/independent”. The results are weighted not just by age, gender and region, which is standard in Australian polling, but also by education and past vote. The latter two are common in Britain but, as far as I’m aware, unique in Australia. Needless to say, this leads to two-party preferred results based on respondent allocation, rather than results from previous elections.

The results for this week’s poll are distinctive in the narrowness of the two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead at 51-49, and low primary votes for both major parties, which come in at 34% for Labor and 33% for the Coalition. Results for the minor parties are Greens 12%, One Nation 7%, Christian parties 4%, Nick Xenophon Team 3%, Katter’s Australian Party 1% and other/independent 6%.

The first thing to be noted is that Labor would record a much stronger lead of 54-46 if preferences were distributed as per the 2016 result, rather than respondent allocation. However, such is the size of the non-major party vote that this would be heavily dependent on preference flows remaining stable despite some fairly dramatic changes in vote share. The second point is that the Greens are two to three points higher than the recent form of Newspoll and Essential Research, although not Ipsos. One Nation and the Nick Xenophon Team respectively come in at 7% and 3%, which would be fairly typical coming from Essential Research, but the combined vote of 11% for everyone else is around double the equivalent figure from Newspoll and Essential Research over the past two months.

For the regular attitudinal questions, this fortnight’s poll focuses on Donald Trump, with findings that 58% consider him “erratic” and a third “unhinged” (not sure if the one response here precludes the other, or if we should combine them to conclude that nearly everybody considers him unstable or worse); that 47% think his presidency threatens to destabilise the world; that 44% feel he won’t last long; and that 52% think his use of Twitter not suitable for a world leader. The poll also records 52% saying Australia is “ready to be fully powered by renewables”, 47% considering climate change a threat to the economy, and 51% supporting the inclusion of clean coal in a clean energy target.

NOTE: Separate to this one, I have a new post that takes a detailed look at the census results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 8 of 14
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  1. Having 10 people line up and say Pell dun it isn’t necessarily more probative than one person saying it. There are lots of factors that might make people concentrate on Pell: e.g. the publicity given to Pell over many years, rumours about Pell, etc etc. Eyewitness testimony is also inherently unreliable. It has led to many shocking, indeed unbelievable miscarriages of justice.
    I suspect that Pell will want to be tried by a judge alone. That seems to be the fashion these days.

  3. “Ugly Right” or “Uglies” works. In fact I recall that that term used to be applied to a far right tendency within the NSW Liberals. Fortunately, unlike the Federal level, at the State level in NSW more moderate voices prevail, fir now at least.

  4. I’m happy for Pell to be judged by a judge alone. Then there can be no whingeing about an unfair trial. Whatever the outcome.

  5. War Games R Us has just kicked started, 30,00 Americans and Australians all up, and will run for a month off the Qld and NT coast, which is all well and good except our boats are broken, your 3 billion tax payer bucks not at work.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-29/wargames-with-america-begin-with-assurance-us-alliance-important/8665114

    Asked how he thought China would view the exercises, Admiral Harris said the size of the deployment was intended as a signal

  6. If Abbott is made GG, then the Republican movement will get droves of new members wanting the GG elected by the people (not my preferred model, because of the USA Prez elections circus}. It would be the end of Tones beloved Monarchy in this country, that is for sure,

  7. Today’s Crikey carries more of the dissent within the Greens party. Apparently Di Natale is trying to blame some obscure rule as the reason for barring Rhiannon from the partyroom, but in reading the account of his interview this morning it just sounds like more of the same excuses for his Get Rhiannon hatchet job. So she didn’t choose to address her objection as a matter of conscience? Really, what a sook Di Natale is.

  11. Re the forces – in a sense they do serve the government. See 8, 9 and 10 of the Defence Act:

    8 (1) The Minister has general control and administration of the Defence Force.
    (2) In performing and exercising functions and powers under this Part, the Chief of the Defence Force and the Secretary must comply with any directions of the Minister.
    9(1) The Chief of the Defence Force has command of the Defence Force.
    (2) The Chief of the Defence Force must advise the Minister on matters relating to the command of the Defence Force.
    10(1) The Secretary and the Chief of the Defence Force have joint administration of the Defence Force.

    But that’s all subject to the well-understood rule that they are must stay out of politics. High Court cases say the defence power in the Constitution only relates to defence against external enemies, recently widened to internal terrorism at the behest of external forces – see Thomas v Mowbray at http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/2007/33.html They can be used to protect a State from domestic violence but only if invited by the State – Constitution s 119. An article in the Aust Law Journal in 1979, by whoever was then the editor of the Current Topics section, said that “in effect the G-G is no more than a glorified Patron of the Defence Forces.”
    This is all quite well understood at command level; they would flatly reject any attempt by Abbott (if G-G!) to give them orders. It’s not very well understood at the grunts level – the highups were shocked when a survey revealed that most of the ORs thought that the G-G or Queen was their real C-in-C. Wish I could find a link to the news articles about that – it got a fair bit of publicity at the time.

  13. Not a peep from the ACL about child sexual abuse – they’re continuing their merry way pursuing anti-SSM and anti-SafeSchools, while at the same time claiming victim status over “attacks” from SSM advocates.

  17. Bemused
    But it is a slippery slope. What is next, Tim Tams? Haighs??!!

    “War Games R Us has just kicked started, 30,00 Americans and Australians”
    Operation Sovereign Photo Op?

    The Pell story is front page news on major news sites world wide… BBC, NYT, CNN

  19. socrates @ #367 Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 8:14 pm

    Bemused
    But it is a slippery slope. What is next, Tim Tams? Haighs??!!
    “War Games R Us has just kicked started, 30,00 Americans and Australians”
    Operation Sovereign Photo Op?
    The Pell story is front page news on major news sites world wide… BBC, NYT, CNN

    Cadbury long ago ceased being a decent brand of chocolate as it once was.

  20. Laura’s on leave (Europe calling) and in lieu here’s some fervid Abbott slanging, with a funny cartoon.

    As he told us on Thursday his “biggest regret” was “not more robustly challenging the nuclear no-go mindset” of what should propel the nation’s next generation of submarines. Apparently that’s it. His biggest regret. Submarine engines.

    AFR; google:
    /opinion/columnists/abbotts-undermining-like-rudd-before-him-is-making-the-coalition-unelectable-20170629-gx18cs#ixzz4lNx51f2q

  22. clipped post
    Asked how he thought China would view the exercises, Admiral Harris said the size of the deployment was intended as a signal

    viz
    the Americans aren’t sure where and which way their boats are pointing, and ours are in dry dock.

  23. [Kezza2
    Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 8:06 pm
    Betcha Pell’s doctors advise against international travel of any sort.]

    Some people seem to experience terrible medical conditions when forced to confront court. Christopher Skase and Clive Palmer to name a couple.

    Pell seems to have a similar problem.

  24. Turnbull’s extremely unedifying support for Houli has come unstuck with the AFL successfully appealing the 2 week ban to four weeks.

  28. Barney
    The Appeals Chairman stated that Turnbull’s “words were not relevant”.
    What did the initial MRP say about Turnbull and Waleed Aly? Did they take his reference into consideration?

  29. diogenes @ #378 Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 8:47 pm

    Barney
    The Appeals Chairman stated that Turnbull’s “words were not relevant”.
    What did the initial MRP say about Turnbull and Waleed Aly? Did they take his reference into consideration?

    I’m not sure, I’ve been out of the loop for a few days, but the Appeals Board stated that it was only on field character and record that was relevant when dealing with tribunal matters.

  30. Tom, yes I do know about s 68. The point is that it’s part of what Bagehot called the “dignified part” of the constitution as opposed to the “effective part”. That is, it doesn’t mean what it says. Everybody in any senior position in government or the forces knows that. And the ex-general in Yarralumla know it too.

  31. Barney
    ” only on field character and record that was relevant”
    That sounds fair enough. I notice two of the three Appeals panel members are QCs.

  32. Hi Bemused,
    Thanks for your suggestions about what the low flyover in Redfern by military planes may have been.
    I have just found this on the ABC :http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-29/wargames-with-america-begin-with-assurance-us-alliance-important/8665114
    and these are definitely the planes I saw flying over.

    Apparently they were simulating an attack “from the north”, but it looked to me like they were about to bomb NSW Parliament house or the Opera House.

  33. Is the Peter O’Callaghan QC on the AFL appeal tribunal the same fellow who played a role in the Melbourne response who was questioned by the Royal Commission?

  34. Oh, and
    “Folks — the Australian-US alliance matters more today than ever before,” said Admiral Harry Harris, the head of the US Pacific Command.
    …….
    Asked how he thought China would view the exercises, Admiral Harris said the size of the deployment was intended as a signal.

    I’m pleased about the message it sends to our friends, allies, partners and potential adversaries,” he told reporters after the official opening ceremony.”

    Did I mention I am off to Taiwan on Saturday 🙁

  39. Following Bolt and Devine today, we can probably expect a concerted assault by Pell defenders in tomorrow’s Oz. People like Sheridan, Henderson and Shanahan come to mind.

  41. douglas and milko @ #382 Thursday, June 29, 2017 at 9:20 pm

    Hi Bemused,
    Thanks for your suggestions about what the low flyover in Redfern by military planes may have been.
    I have just found this on the ABC :http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-29/wargames-with-america-begin-with-assurance-us-alliance-important/8665114
    and these are definitely the planes I saw flying over.
    Apparently they were simulating an attack “from the north”, but it looked to me like they were about to bomb NSW Parliament house or the Opera House.

    Australia doesn’t have any of them. They must have been US aircraft. The Marines use them as they can take off and land vertically like a helicopter as the engines swivel to point upward. Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey if I’m not mistaken.

  42. Richard Di Natale, the Federal leader of the Greens (aka “The Black Wiggle”), is having a disagreement with Lee Rhiannon, the Greens NSW Senator, over Gonski-2. He has recruited the rest of the Wiggles and they are cycling on their tandem bike to depose the recalcitrant Lee.

    Join in with their version of the Black Adder series title-song, as they home in on their target.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/sam-dastyari-targets-greens-di-natale-as-senate-gets-heated/news-story/7508bfcc914d3547c1fd4ceed45634ba

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3F37kQl9Uw

    Clad in skivvy black and dark
    Rides the meanest of all the Wiggles
    If Lee still spouts this commo lark
    Will end up shorter than Mr Squiggle
    :- )
    Black Wiggle, Black Wiggle, on his wobbly tandem bike
    Black Wiggle, Black Wiggle, will tell Lee to take a hike
    :- )
    Black: his skiv of cashmere wool
    Black: his faction of the Wiggles
    Comrade Lee won’t join his au pair pool
    She prefers the Trots to Dickie’s Liberals
    :- )
    Black Wiggle, Black Wiggle, with many a cunning plan
    Black Wiggle, Black Wiggle, Malcolm’s number 1 fan

  43. Following Bolt and Devine today, we can probably expect a concerted assault by Pell defenders in tomorrow’s Oz. People like Sheridan, Henderson and Shanahan come to mind.

    Guaranteed. The Oz has been running interference on Pell from the get go. I imagine they’ll be in full chorus tomorrow after today’s outcomes.

  45. If Kezza 2’s link at 6.40 pm is accurate it should be noted that Alex Southwell QC (known as “Ging” – short for ginger) was at that time a retired Victorian Supreme Court judge of impeccable credentials except for a rather fiery temperament (to go with his once red hair) when dealing with plodding submissions.

    “Phil” referred to in the story would seem to be an ideal witness against Pell but, with Richter QC defending he will need to have mates to get proof beyond reasonable doubt.

  46. Foreign affairs minister Julie Bishop charged taxpayers thousands of dollars to attend the AFL Grand Final last year on “official ministerial business”, expense reports reveal.

    …

    Bishop has enjoyed MCG corporate hospitality on grand final day as a guest of the AFL for the last three years, but expense reports reveal she charged over $8,000 in her travel and accommodation costs to the public.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/julie-bishop-charged-taxpayers-more-than-35k-to-go-to-last?bffbozpol&utm_term=.yjVGBRxD2y#.pxrG2Rylz7

  47. Pell’s supporters will really go berserk if this is true.
    “The Herald Sun has been told it is highly unlikely that Cardinal Pell, who was promoted to the Vatican three years ago to reform its multi- billion euro real estate and financial portfolio, will return to Rome in his high-profile role. “

  48. Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP 8m8 minutes ago
    Good to see German Christian Democrat MP @StefanKaufmann condemn those who won’t bake a cake for gay couples as discriminatory on @Lateline

    I loathe that this is where the equality argument has gotten to on SSM: Whether you have a right to a cake at your wedding to your same sex partner.

    Like it’s the absence of gay cake that is holding you back equality-wise, rather than the absence of laws that enshrine equality in the first place. Yeesh talk about horse before cart!

  49. I read this on a footy forum regarding the increase of Houli’s suspension from 2 to 4 weeks:

    (Looking forward to what our PM has to say about this)

    This response cracked me up

    (Headlines in a month.
    Houli in.
    Turnbull out.)

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