BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Signs of a gentle trend back to the Coalition, although it comes off a lean period for new poll results.

We’re now at the end of a two-week period where Essential Research has furnished the only new federal poll results, causing its reading of the situation to loom unusually large in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This week’s sample produced a fairly close result, so Labor is down half a point on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection, losing one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, where it may be coming back to earth after the state election bounce. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

788 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  2. To give you an idea of how well the newspapers are doing in having readers. The Daily Teleghaph in Sydney once a highly bought newspaper is now being given away free at the footy.

    This was my experience after a Swans match. Not much enthusiasm for their free copy. Like me crossword and other uses for newspapers than reading is just as likely as wanting to read from those who did take the free copy.

    Its not just social media that is the cause of the decline in readership.

  3. question @ #544 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 11:24 am

    Bemused
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 11:18 am
    I am watching a very interesting edition of Compass on ABC TV.
    The program is about Fr Rod Bower, the turbulent priest at Gosford.
    I’m impressed!

    Is he the guy who puts the interesting quotes on the board outside the church? They get a lot of circulation on social media.

    He is indeed, but he does far more than just his board.
    Well worth watching if that episode is repeated or available on iView.
    Actually, irreligious as I am, there are a lot of good episodes of Compass with which I identify.

  4. BC,
    Obviously you can never make exact comparisons. No politician in OZ is anything like Trump, but he did give the crazies a bump. At the time I thought the bump would be short lived, and politicians jumping on the bandwagon would soon regret it, and that seems to have happened even faster than I expected.

    Indeed, the navel gazing ‘storey of the week’ for me is how the CPG helped Turnbull jump off the Trump sycophancy train.

    The general theme of Corbyn’s ‘for the many, not the few’ I think will be more enduring, as Guytaur pointed out with Grenfell. It is a real response to the underlying anger that the Trump approach was never really going to deal with.

  5. I’m the same Bemused, while I am not religious, I still find the topics of philosophy and theology interesting, because they try to explain what it is to be human.
    Will look it up if I’m in the mood.

  6. Last night one of our more pugilistic posters was moaning that the MSM has ignored the Three Ministerial Stooges and their antics that have incurred the wrath of the judiciary!
    Wrong of course.
    And here is a further example, well worth reading, from the Sunday Age.

    Opinion: Why the Coalition attack on Victorian judges was completely out of line

    It’s not every day that federal government ministers are hauled before the courts and asked to explain why they shouldn’t be charged with contempt.

    Then again, it’s not every day that federal government ministers accuse certain judges of being soft on terrorists because of an ideological predisposition.

    To that end, the Supreme Court’s request this week for a “please explain” from Liberal frontbenchers Greg Hunt, Alan Tudge and Michael Sukkar was a powerful statement about the dangers of recklessly attacking the integrity of the judiciary.

    It was also an indictment on the Turnbull government, which often seems more intent on playing politics or shifting blame than taking a constructive approach to tackling the problems we face as a nation.

    We’ve seen it when it comes to infrastructure funding: have a look, for instance, at the Commonwealth’s unnecessary bickering with the Andrews Labor government over regional rail projects, public asset recycling, or the East West Link.

    We’ve seen it on energy policy, too: from the state-federal battles over renewables, to the Coalition’s internal wars when it comes to the merit of a clean energy target.

    And lately we’re seeing it when it comes to terrorism, law and order, community safety. Remember a few weeks ago, in the aftermath of the horrific seige in the Melbourne bayside suburb of Brighton?

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull wasted time no pointing the finger at Premier Daniel Andrews and the inadequacies of Victoria’s parole system. Yet, when Andrews flagged a willingness to cede authority for criminals on terror watch lists to the Commonwealth, Turnbull accused him of trying to abdicate state responsibility to the federal government. Go figure.

    This week, it’s the Victorian judiciary that has come under fire – but for what purpose? An easy headline taking aim against judges in Andrews’ Labor state? An attempt for the Liberal Party to beat the law-and-order drum? Or worse still: a bid to influence court decisions or undermine faith in the administration of justice? Whatever the case, the signs are troubling.

    In case you missed it, things escalated quickly on Tuesday when Hunt, Tudge and Sukkar appeared in an article on the front page of The Australian newspaper suggesting that judges in Victoria were imposing shorter sentences on terrorist offences for ideological reasons.

    Hunt, who is federal Health Minister, led the charge, warning that “state courts should not be places for ideological experiments in the face of global and local threats from Islamic extremism”.

    Tudge, the federal Human Services Minister, followed suit, saying some judges were “divorced from reality” and “seem more concerned about the terrorists than the safety of our community”.

    And Sukkar, the federal Assistant Treasurer, also weighed in, declaring that “Labor’s continued appointment of hard-left activist judges has come back to bite Victorians”.

    There’s nothing wrong or unusual about judges being subject to scrutiny – in fact, many in the community might share general concerns about lenient sentencing and want their elected politicians to represent their views.

    And many also value the right to speak out – indeed, as Turnbull himself pointed out on Thursday, “The courts can not be, and are not, immune from criticism, which may extend to robust observations of a particular decision or penalty.”

    The problem is, politicians lining up to accuse judges of failing to apply the law because of a lefty world view looks less like free speech and more like an orchestrated attack designed to diminish confidence in the justice system.

    What’s more, the ministers’ comments stemmed from a matter that is yet to be resolved by the courts, and one in which a federal agency – the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions – is a litigant. Whatever happened to the separation of powers?

    To put this in context, the MPs’ statements related to a case that was still before the Court of Appeal, which is considering a challenge by the Commonwealth DPP against the seven-and-a-half-year non-parole sentence imposed on Victorian Sevdet​ Besim​, the man responsible for the Anzac Day plot to behead a police officer.

    And it was during the deliberations of that case that references were reportedly made by Victorian Chief Justice Marilyn Warren and Justice Mark Weinberg about apparent differences between sentences for terrorism handed down in Victoria and NSW. On that basis, the MPs decided to weigh in.

    Boiled down, the ministers’ crossed the line. Not only did their comments suggest that some judges were effectively corrupt because they came to hearings with an already formed view, but the statements could have also been misconstrued as an attempt to influence a tougher outcome in the Besim appeal.
    —
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/opinion-why-the-coalition-attack-on-victorian-judges-was-completely-out-of-line-20170616-gwssjr.html

    A good opinion piece which does not pull any punches.

  7. question @ #555 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 11:55 am

    I’m the same Bemused, while I am not religious, I still find the topics of philosophy and theology interesting, because they try to explain what it is to be human.
    Will look it up if I’m in the mood.

    Ethics are important to society and I think religion and philosophy are the source of them. Read what Socrates has written re ethics in Engineering.
    I have quite a few books of philosophy and religion and have read them.
    I used to be mates with a Uniting Church Minister who used to visit and drink my wine and try to recruit me to his church. He reckoned he needed me to stir up his congregation, most of whom would never have read or owned any book on religion beyond perhaps the Bible.
    I was trying to recruit him to the ALP.
    Neither of us succeeded.

  8. Count me as an MSM basher Bemused.

    I will admit that even Stutchbury, after briefly ignoring the legal situation and taking the feelpinion line, did concede that the MP’s were in the wrong.

    However, the idea that the MSM in Australia is anywhere near politically ‘agnostic’ is a nonsense. We had someone here the other day pontificating the Fairfax are Left and the Guardian hard Left.

    The fact is that posters like Colton just have to turn on the radio to hear their nonsense given wide circulation, they don’t have to retreat to some corner of the internet at all.

    And while the the Guardian might lean Left, I can find reams of quotes cutting Turnbull no end of slack. Quotes that even still imagine ‘he has a plan’, despite almost 2 years of evidence that he does not.

    There is nothing in OZ that comes anywhere near the partisan backing the L-NP get from the Murdoch press. And when they attack the L-NP, it is almost always from the right.

    So you won’t find me poking fun at people who come to places like this to vent their frustration. Their frustration is perfectly valid.

  9. Bemused
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 12:17 pm
    question @ #555 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 11:55 am
    Ethics are important to society and I think religion and philosophy are the source of them. Read what Socrates has written re ethics in Engineering.
    I have quite a few books of philosophy and religion and have read them.
    I used to be mates with a Uniting Church Minister who used to visit and drink my wine and try to recruit me to his church. He reckoned he needed me to stir up his congregation, most of whom would never have read or owned any book on religion beyond perhaps the Bible.
    I was trying to recruit him to the ALP.
    Neither of us succeeded.

    I identify more with your take on ethics and righteousness. : )

  10. question @ #558 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 12:22 pm

    Count me as an MSM basher Bemused.
    I will admit that even Stutchbury, after briefly ignoring the legal situation and taking the feelpinion line, did concede that the MP’s were in the wrong.
    However, the idea that the MSM in Australia is anywhere near politically ‘agnostic’ is a nonsense. We had someone here the other day pontificating the Fairfax are Left and the Guardian hard Left.
    The fact is that posters like Colton just have to turn on the radio to hear their nonsense given wide circulation, they don’t have to retreat to some corner of the internet at all.
    And while the the Guardian might lean Left, I can find reams of quotes cutting Turnbull no end of slack. Quotes that even still imagine ‘he has a plan’, despite almost 2 years of evidence that he does not.
    There is nothing in OZ that comes anywhere near the partisan backing the L-NP get from the Murdoch press. And when they attack the L-NP, it is almost always from the right.
    So you won’t find me poking fun at people who come to places like this to vent their frustration. Their frustration is perfectly valid.

    Well I certainly don’t regard the MSM as even handed, but the picture is not universally bleak and their influence is waning.
    As with the ‘Three Ministerial Stooges’, they eventually cannot ignore what is going on.
    But just moaning about it is futile.

  11. Good afternoon all,

    I remember reading or hearing a discussion on ethics and morality and what, if anything, is the difference between the two.

    One of the comparisons raised was wtte ” A ethical person knows it is wrong to cheat on their partner but it is a moral person who would not actually do it ”

    Just out of interest.

    Cheers.

  12. [ The general theme of Corbyn’s ‘for the many, not the few’ I think will be more enduring, ]

    Hell yeah. Channeling one of Spock’s great moments from star Trek. 🙂

  13. I often use ‘OZ’ as shorthand for ‘Australia’. I shouldn’t do that in the context of the MSM because many also use it as shorthand for the Australian newspaper.

  14. Briefly, The WA Labor Party selected Joe Bullock as No 1 on its senate ticket. Prima facie evidence of corruption, at the very least. Also very, very, very stupid.

  16. It might be futile Bemused, but it’s fun. Like yelling at the TV.
    I suspect the efforts of the MSM are becoming less and less powerful, but it would be interesting to see where the polls would be without their turd polishing. And I suspect Corbyn would have a healthy majority if not for the efforts of the press.

  17. Bemused

    Pointing out the BS from the media happens every day. This is because even as their relevance fades they are still the main game in reaching mass audiences.

    Facebook and twitter are good. However most people end up in silos and don’t see news they dont like. This is where Fake News comes from.

    So its more important than ever we see these views challenged. some journalists do read Crikey and some may even read this blog at times. This is an area where we can see reasonable v unreasonable complaints about the media and its group think

  19. Ha, Bemused’s definition of futility would no doubt apply to the majority of comments on this blog, particularly his own.

    Apparently ‘moaning’ (nice use of language there) about the MSM is futile, but moaning about the moaning is worthwhile in bemused world.

  20. Its fairly clear a person who has “cheated” on their partner in a marriage is unethical.

    The ethical person would have an Open Relationship with both partners allowed to see others. Thus no “cheating” involved.

  22. Doyley,
    Just letting my mind wander on your ethical v. moral example.
    I would say a moral person would regard cheating on their wife as an absolute rule. An ethical person would be more flexible. So if a couple come to some kind of agreement on what boundaries their relationship has, and what constitutes hurting each other, they may permit sex outside the relationship. That wouldn’t really be cheating though…

  23. But seriously, I don’t think that it is futile at all to call out propaganda for what it is.

    As Guytaur said, unfortunately the MSM is still influential, even is this is fast diminishing.

    Propaganda only succeeds if the people at which it is aimed are unaware of its techniques.

  25. question @ #566 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 12:39 pm

    It might be futile Bemused, but it’s fun. Like yelling at the TV.
    I suspect the efforts of the MSM are becoming less and less powerful, but it would be interesting to see where the polls would be without their turd polishing. And I suspect Corbyn would have a healthy majority if not for the efforts of the press.

    Things have no doubt moved on from the days when I was a candidate, but I received some good advice at the time and did manage to work the media to my advantage quite well. Even managed to get on national TV with a story, not bad for a humble candidate in a safe Liberal seat.
    A friendly editor of a local newspaper also gave me a few invaluable tips which I then followed and thereafter dominated the local media. There really are some tricks to breaking through.
    For example, a press release is not going to a great deal of interest and is certainly not good TV. But if you stage some kind of an event based on that topic, you instantly create visual media and greater interest. And with a bit of imagination it is easy.

  26. adrian @ #569 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 12:46 pm

    Ha, Bemused’s definition of futility would no doubt apply to the majority of comments on this blog, particularly his own.
    Apparently ‘moaning’ (nice use of language there) about the MSM is futile, but moaning about the moaning is worthwhile in bemused world.

    Just pointing it out sunshine, and deriving amusement from it.
    I use social media to get messages across and also personal contact with people.
    What do you do?

  27. Bemused.

    Yes the circus argument. As a candidate its good technique.

    However we see much less informative debates nowadays than we used to.
    I would much prefer tonsee more hypothetical style programmes than interview programmes.

    This would give us more idea of what politicians are reallyblike with decisions.

    Then we could have more straight up reporting. The problem is that we are saturated with bread and circus at election time. While hypotheticals fall in that category I think they are far more revealing of information voters really want to know about of candidates thinking.

  28. For example, a press release is not going to a great deal of interest and is certainly not good TV. But if you stage some kind of an event based on that topic, you instantly create visual media and greater interest. And with a bit of imagination it is easy.

    Good advice, but how do we influence the multitude of pundits with ongoing delusions that Turnbull has a plan, when clearly he never has?

    “Don’t worry, Turnbull 6 point 0 comes with a battery that doesn’t explode” is getting tedious.

    What gets me yelling at the TV most is the selective use of the word ‘bipartisan’. These idiots where cheering Abbott on from the sideline. They helped turn the ALP installing an ETS, which happened to be their 2010 election policy, into a ‘carbon tax lie’. And now they moan about the ‘wasted decade’.

    And what gets me yelling at PB are all the ALP/Green wars over the issue, when they should be yelling at the CPG!

  29. I also forgot to add live coverage of politicians doing town halls would be good in local areas.

    Every such Town Hall advertising should include live streaming website by candidates of a debate they are going to be at. By pass local media give voters that cannot attend the opportunity to at least watch their local debates.

  30. guytaur @ #577 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 1:02 pm

    Bemused.
    Yes the circus argument. As a candidate its good technique.
    However we see much less informative debates nowadays than we used to.
    I would much prefer tonsee more hypothetical style programmes than interview programmes.
    This would give us more idea of what politicians are reallyblike with decisions.
    Then we could have more straight up reporting. The problem is that we are saturated with bread and circus at election time. While hypotheticals fall in that category I think they are far more revealing of information voters really want to know about of candidates thinking.

    It’s been overtaken by technology, but one of the simplest tips I got was to make stories easy for the local paper to deal with.
    I had been submitting material on A4 sheets which meant someone, a journalist or editor, had to re-type it, double spaced, onto smaller sheets of paper which then went to the type setters, or whatever they were.
    So I requested, and was given, a supply of the paper they used and thereafter typed everything onto those sheets of paper, just the way the typesetters required.
    Thereafter all my stuff appeared exactly as I wrote it with no editorial intervention.

    Since then I have written articles published in The Age and SMH with very little editing. I made sure that what I wrote fitted with what made it easy for them. Much easier now than the old days with hard copy.

    You really can work with the media to get better results.

  31. Seems like Hockeynomics lives on.

    Sky News Australia
    1 hr ·
    Shadow Minister for Education Tanya Plibersek says any way you look at it, Malcolm Turnubll has got a set of dodgy numbers; the truth is $22bn in cuts to schools funding. MORE: http://bit.ly/2rIe3MF

  32. question @ #578 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 1:06 pm

    For example, a press release is not going to a great deal of interest and is certainly not good TV. But if you stage some kind of an event based on that topic, you instantly create visual media and greater interest. And with a bit of imagination it is easy.

    Good advice, but how do we influence the multitude of pundits with ongoing delusions that Turnbull has a plan, when clearly he never has?
    “Don’t worry, Turnbull 6 point 0 comes with a battery that doesn’t explode” is getting tedious.
    What gets me yelling at the TV most is the selective use of the word ‘bipartisan’. These idiots where cheering Abbott on from the sideline. They helped turn the ALP installing an ETS, which happened to be their 2010 election policy, into a ‘carbon tax lie’. And now they moan about the ‘wasted decade’.
    And what gets me yelling at PB are all the ALP/Green wars over the issue, when they should be yelling at the CPG!

    Humour is the most powerful weapon I know.
    Whitlam used it to devastating effect on McMahon and later Billy Snedden, destroying both.
    The cartoonists are doing a great job on Turnbull and Labor could do far worse than picking up and using their memes. Likewise Dutton, Morrison and Cormann.

  33. Bemused

    Filmimg local debates and even do your presser invite questions from media but if nonjournalists turn up go do one at local shopping centre film yourself with voters asking questions. Submit to media. Modern smartphone quality good enough for media/pr person to organise

  34. All good advice Bemused, and I am getting some insight into your admiration for Rudd, because he was clearly very good at that stuff. Abbott seems to be good at that stuff also. However, when the media turned on them, they turned hard.

  35. ‘I use social media to get messages across and also personal contact with people.
    What do you do?’

    Same as you, ‘sunshine’. It’s not rocket science.

  36. Question,

    It is a interesting conundrum.

    From your excellent post can I gather that the definition of ethics and ethical can depend on individual circumstances and thus a very fluid concept ?

    Cheers.

  37. Doyley

    To have an Open Relationship can be very ethical. The morality of it is viewed differently by a lot of people

  38. Yabba88
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 12:36 pm
    Briefly, The WA Labor Party selected Joe Bullock as No 1 on its senate ticket. Prima facie evidence of corruption, at the very least. Also very, very, very stupid.

    That arose from a deal between the left and the right at the national level. It was not corrupt but was undemocratic and very stupid. It is an example of how WA interests have been trampled over – a feature of Lib as well as Labor decision-making over many years.

  39. Doyley,
    The view that ethics are more flexible is just my take. I wouldn’t say it was an absolute guide to the differences.
    Morals are also arbitrary. For example, there are religions where polygamy is acceptable. But because morals are guided by religion I would assume them to be more permanent and less flexible.

  40. What every politician from activist to Prime Minister should remember your phone is a high quality video camera. Buy a tripod and lighting. Set up a room for video press releases. My current phone can do 4K video.

    If you do your press release by video you give journalists a transcript audio and video.

  41. Having taught ethics for engineering students, I can say that looking for a difference between ethics and morality is pretty futile. The most important thing is not to use a legalistic approach to ethics. To say something is “right” or “wrong” with a line in the sand method is to miss the point. Morality is an ideal, and can better be shown as an arrow (or compass needle). However “good” you are, there is always something to improve!!
    This, of course, is the old rejection of “black and white” argument.
    My own opinion FWIW is that the institutional religions generally have their values arse about. Morality, more than anything, is about your behaviour towards others. Sexual behaviour (and also numerous dependencies/addictions) are relatively minor. What counts is exploitation of others – and of the global environment. To a small degree, inequality of power and wealth is inevitable, but the task of the rulers is to keep it under a tight control.

  42. Phylactella
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 2:01 pm.
    Agreed, when it comes to engineering something to be fit for purpose, morals and ethics are the same thing.

  44. Phylactella,
    Thanks for that, just looked it up.
    “The burden of proof that it is not harmful” also applies to people who want to screw around in their relationships : )

  45. guytaur @ #583 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 1:21 pm

    Bemused
    Filmimg local debates and even do your presser invite questions from media but if nonjournalists turn up go do one at local shopping centre film yourself with voters asking questions. Submit to media. Modern smartphone quality good enough for media/pr person to organise

    Submit to what media?
    A shadow minister or leader can go to the national media.
    Local candidates in urban areas do not have local TV and radio. Some rural candidates do.

  47. question @ #584 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 1:22 pm

    All good advice Bemused, and I am getting some insight into your admiration for Rudd, because he was clearly very good at that stuff. Abbott seems to be good at that stuff also. However, when the media turned on them, they turned hard.

    In this day and age, working the media is an essential skill for any political leader and highly desirable even for a humble backbencher.
    Rudd certainly was good most of the time.
    Working an audience and connecting with them is another such skill which he had in spades.
    Shorten is also good at both of these. I make no comment on another recent leader.

  49. Birmingham on – looking pleased with himself, not because he believes what he’s saying, but that he’s learnt all his ‘lines’.

  50. briefly @ #588 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 1:43 pm

    Yabba88
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 12:36 pm
    Briefly, The WA Labor Party selected Joe Bullock as No 1 on its senate ticket. Prima facie evidence of corruption, at the very least. Also very, very, very stupid.
    That arose from a deal between the left and the right at the national level. It was not corrupt but was undemocratic and very stupid. It is an example of how WA interests have been trampled over – a feature of Lib as well as Labor decision-making over many years.

    Pre-selections are a state matter.

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