BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Signs of a gentle trend back to the Coalition, although it comes off a lean period for new poll results.

We’re now at the end of a two-week period where Essential Research has furnished the only new federal poll results, causing its reading of the situation to loom unusually large in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This week’s sample produced a fairly close result, so Labor is down half a point on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection, losing one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, where it may be coming back to earth after the state election bounce. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

788 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. Adani pushed out to the never never.
    1) Native title amendments were passed by the senate – good for Adani.
    2) Craig Dallen, a Wangan and Jagalingou representative, now is opposed to it. So it has lost its majority. Bad for Adani.
    3) Wangan and Jagalingou now evenly split on the issue, but this does not invalidate the agreement. Good for Adani.
    4) Other subsidiary agreements need to be struck with Adani, requiring support of Craig Dallen, before finance can be approved (at least by most banks). Bad for Adani.
    5) Decision on Adani likel;y pushed out to March next year. Good for the planet.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/15/adani-mine-loses-majority-support-of-traditional-owner-representatives

  2. I’ve noticed that Stutchberry seems to be placed again on the right end of the couch where he can slouch in Cassidy’s direction.

    Obviously he’s in heavy training to be the full Henderson replacement.

  3. @pacelattin Trump has isolated himself at Camp David and refusing to see anyone. He has no appointments for 60 hours.

    If you want to have a good laugh, look up this tweet and read the speculation of what Trump is possibly up to.

  4. So when Shorten said that Labor would reserve its right to criticise Trump and the US, Turnbull and his cohorts went in to meltdown, saying that this threatened the alliance. When Turnbull criticises Trump and the US, it’s just a bit of fun and no one should be taking it seriously.

  5. Ides Of March
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 10:04 am
    W.A Inc.

    That was a very long time ago….but thanks for the gratuitous slur.

  6. Insiders look at the Finkel issue was superficial to say the least. They never question the fundamental assumptions of the protagonists. It seems the debate now hinges on whether the taxpayer should subsidise coal for fucks sake.
    No one questioned Joyce’s ludicrous claim of 30,000 jobs from Adani – right up there with $100 lamb roasts.

  7. On the corruption thing.

    It took a while but Labor is on the right side of history with irs donation reforms and support for a Federal ICAC.

  8. Barnaby’s act is Loodicrosity…it has served him well, he knows the lines, everyone reads it as stand-up exaggeration bordering on farce…he is politics as amusement, Punch and Judy style…

  9. The Insiders panel, like Jack Waterford, seem to take much mirth from insulting and belittling Bill Shorten. Chris Pyne’s comment on Shorten’s speech was given prominence on the show in a very unedifying manner.

    The leaking of Turnbull’s speech seemed an odd opportunity to make personal remarks on the OL, but it was certainly not missed. Just how much mileage do they think they can get with this approach? The Liberal Party and the Canberra press bubble seem to enjoy it very much but the voting public takes a very dim view of personal vitriol.

  10. Guytaur
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 10:19 am
    On the corruption thing.

    Yeah, on impropriety, Sohar can get off their high horse. There are plenty of serious, committed, Labor members among the bludgers who give their time, money and effort to the work of Labor. We are not corrupt. We are not self-serving. Solar can reserve their insults for others.

  11. Desert QLander

    the voting public takes a very dim view of personal vitriol.

    Well, it seems to have a lot of support on Twitter and some PBers enjoy blaming Shorten for everything.

  12. there are times when this statement I saw sums up Insiders for me.

    Insiders means the view from inside the Liberal Party

  13. BL
    Thanks for the link on engineering responsibility for Grenfell tower. A good article.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/grenfell-tower-fire-disaster-engineering-responsibility,10409
    Poroti
    Certainly the loss of regulation of building by independent and experienced professionals is a regrettable feature of economic liberalism now getting deserved criticism. We have blindly followed the same policy trend here. There used to be chief engineers with statutory responsibility for standards in state departments. Now, just as the ABS chief statistician is not a statistician, here in SA the chief executive of the Infrastructure department is a former Hawke government political staffer, not an engineer.

    As for engineering and ethics, I have referred to many problems here before. Deman modelling on PPP toll roads is a notorious problem area. In my experience the worst areas of engineering for ethical compliance are building construction and mining. In both cases, some engineers do not act ethically in my view. They usually finish up as very wealthy men. We are not as bad as the financiers, but not as good as we once were, or should be.

  14. Briefly:

    Its not a slur. Its pointing out that there is also corrupt, spivs and shonks in the Labor Party. Its also another reason we need a federal ICAC.

  15. Lizzie,
    Pyne is a good barometer for the Turnbull government. His comments always indicate government strategic thinking.

    It is why I am certain this was a PMO leak to boost Turnbull. Pyne took it a step further with a swipe at Shorten.

    Can’t help themselves.

  16. Prof. Peter Doherty‏ @ProfPCDoherty · 1h1 hour ago

    Barnaby Joyce on #Insiders missing the point that our biggest coal fired power plant closed by a French company getting out of coal.

  17. Guytaur
    “On the corruption thing.

    It took a while but Labor is on the right side of history with irs donation reforms and support for a Federal ICAC.”

    I agree, though it is easy to have such policies in opposition. The challenge will be if they are implemented next time Labor is in government. The overwhelming majority of people I met at the grassroots while I was in the Labor party were great, and not at all corrupt. A minority were not, though that minority were over represented in parliament.

    But as with the catholic church, the test of an ethical organisation is not whether everyone is ethical. There is always someone who is not. The test is whether you have systems in place to remove these people before they do too much damage. Labor needs to find and remove the next Obeid before he destroys the party’s credibility in an entire state.

  18. Desert Qlder

    Perhaps I should pay more attention to Pyne, then. I usually try to avoid the irritating little sweetheart.

  19. Stephen Koukoulas‏Verified account @TheKouk · 50m50 minutes ago

    Phew: Insiders got through the show without looking at govt debt hitting half a trillion dollars #Insiders

  20. Guytaur
    “Sorry. For example. Not one mention of government debt.”

    There are half a trillion reasons not to be talking about the Liberal debt tsunami. This is no time to focus on the big picture. Think terrorism!

  21. Asking questions of politicians has become a two pronged game: either the question allows the interviewee to spout what ever crap he/she so desires or, it is a way of getting an emotional response from the interviewee (i.e. Gotcha moment)

    Neither elicits proper information which is ideally what the journalist should be aiming for.

  22. Lizzie,
    I wouldn’t out yourself out too much, he is not that interesting. It is just that he often gives an insight into the petty personal games the government attempts to play.

    Very juvenile and short term. It is entertaining in that pathetic sort of way.

    I think Howard had Pyne worked out a long time ago, and that is why he kept him a mile away from the front bench.

  23. Jen.

    Yes. The exception is like when Joyce asked a gotcha question about supporting Qld LNP proposal to support having a new coal mine. That was an informative gotcha

  24. I saw some comments here yesterday on an article about how Shorten can’t get any comfort from the Corbyn victory.

    The UK election presents the CPG with a problem.

    They are busting to get into ALP leadershit, and have been praising Albo for his more moderate views on the budget to that end. Albo himself says these claims are a mis-representation, but hey, the CPG know he has to say that.

    You expect the CPG to make comparisons, it’s their self-appointed job to assess the ‘political mood’ from their bubble, and what it might mean for Australia. Remember the Trump victory meant Bernardi found the confidence to split from the L-NP, and the L-NP started experimenting with preference deals with One Nation in WA. Experiments that failed.

    And now Corbyn shows there is a mood out there, which probably exists in OZ as well if we are to start making comparisons, to stop giving tax cuts to corporations and the wealthy, and to stop burdening the poor. Shorten was probably onto something in his budget reply.

    So we can’t have that. To fit the leadershit ‘mood’, Albo has to be a better fit with Corbyn, and I saw the odd article suggesting that. But it’s a bit difficult when you have just been framing Albo as the guy who is more ‘bipartisan’, and supportive of a budget that benefits the rich and burdens the poor.

    The alternative is to pretend there is no comparison to the UK, so Shorten can get no comfort.

    I am dreading the day the furious turd polishing of the CPG gets a poll of 50-50 to work off. I’m expecting wall to wall leadershit.

  25. “Thanks everyone, I’m glad I missed Insiders. This refusal of the CPG to consider coal reality is ridiculous.”

    Lizzie, I think you could just leave the word coal out of that sentence, and it would be just as accurate.

    Incidentally, why anyone bothers with Insiders is beyond me. It sounds as though they are pushing the envelope regarding government propaganda as far as possible.

    Like most political interviewers these days, from what I’ve seen, Cassidy just goes through the motions, conducting the charade of an interview as though it means something, when obviously it doesn’t.

  26. Barnyard says he is aware, says he will ‘shut up’, and will say nothing

    As I’ve noted many a time. You know you’re in real trouble when Barnyard makes more sense than you. That is where Rhyming Slang and his dopey mates find themselves.

  27. Gt – Barrie did mention the size the Debt number had reached and that it coincided with another big loan.

    The Insider ‘visitors’ shrugged and waited for the next item on his list.

  28. Barney In Go Dau
    Yes, Hewson IMO failed because he was a) intelligent and b) too honest. These are characteristics which do not thrive in the LNP.
    There are others who have left Parly who have revealed that their true nature was always devious and untrustworthy.

  29. briefly @ #507 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 10:16 am

    Ides Of March
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 10:04 am
    W.A Inc.

    That was a very long time ago….but thanks for the gratuitous slur.

    Like more recent events in NSW, it should serve to remind every ALP member that things can go off the rails.
    This ALP member is not offended.

  30. The Coalition, which is currently in Government and has been for 4 years, gives every appearance of being the political wing of the Coal industry, while some here bang on about a long-forgotton WA scandal from 3o years ago.

  31. I am watching a very interesting edition of Compass on ABC TV.
    The program is about Fr Rod Bower, the turbulent priest at Gosford.
    I’m impressed!

  32. Question.

    I agree. A pity Grenfell tower is such a stark example and getting plenty of media attention from the Gallery point of view.

    ———————
    Daniel Andrews presser on terror laws now

  33. lizzie @ #535 Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 11:09 am

    Barney In Go Dau
    Yes, Hewson IMO failed because he was a) intelligent and b) too honest. These are characteristics which do not thrive in the LNP.
    There are others who have left Parly who have revealed that their true nature was always devious and untrustworthy.

    Yes, I think Hewson’s academic integrity often got in his way in politics but outside, it makes him an interesting and worthwhile commentator.

    Both Parties have their repugnant legacies but the Liberals with their focus on the individual outstrip Labor in this regard.

  34. Bemused
    Sunday, June 18, 2017 at 11:18 am
    I am watching a very interesting edition of Compass on ABC TV.
    The program is about Fr Rod Bower, the turbulent priest at Gosford.
    I’m impressed!

    Is he the guy who puts the interesting quotes on the board outside the church? They get a lot of circulation on social media.

  35. I’m trying to recall when I last had any respect for Coalition MPs.

    Fred Chaney for sure, also how about Ian Macphee and Robert Hill?

    I have a lot of respect for Hewson now, but it took a few years out of parliament to rehabilitate him. I do occasionally ponder the fantasy alternate reality where Keating lost to Hewson in 1993 and what that might have meant – probably no Howard and no Abbott down the track (and of course radically different subsequent ALP leadership). Sad!

  36. @Question

    Agreed, I’ve said it before here, but making out Albo to be a Corbyn analogue mischaracterises both to an absurd degree.

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