Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

With much of the country enjoying a long weekend, a status quo reading from Essential Research is the only new voting intention result for the week.

The Guardian reports that the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, which has been delayed a day due to Monday’s public holiday, has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, after it fell from 53-47 last week. Primary votes will have to wait until later today. UPDATE: Full report here, with primary votes at Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 8% (up two).

Other reported findings focus on terrorism and a low emissions target, with the former including a 47% approval rating for Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of the terror threat, compared with 56% in October 2015, and 24% disapproval, compared with 17%; 74% saying the terrorism threat in Australia has risen over recent years; 46% saying the government should be spending more on counter-terrorism, compared with only 9% for less; and 44% saying there should be more restrictions on rights and freedoms to combat terrorism, with only 12% saying current restrictions go too far, and 19% believing the current balance is right.

With respect to carbon emissions, 44% favour a low emissions target and 20% an emissions intensity scheme, with 36% opting for don’t know; and 27% saying capture and storage from coal generation should count as a low emissions energy source, compared with 29% who disagreed.

Also this week:

• The Australia Institute has published a ReachTEL poll of the Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong, which after incorporating prompting responses for the undecided finds primary votes of Liberal 48.9% (58.2% at the election), Labor 25.5% (19.8%) and Greens 17.0% (18.9%), and a respondent-allocated two-party result of 56-44 to Liberal (63.3-36.7). The poll also records a 77.9-15.5 split in favour of a clean energy target,

• Western Australian Senator Chris Back has announced he will retire as of the end of July, leaving a vacancy for a three-year term that runs to mid-2019. Andrew Burrell of The Australian identifies two possible successors: Slade Brockman, former chief-of-staff to Mathias Cormann, who is rated the front-runner; and Matt O’Sullivan, chief operating officer of Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous youth employment scheme, who ran unsuccessfully in the southern Perth seat of Burt at last year’s federal election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,379 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  3. Apart from other issues Blanket, the problem with Nuclear power is that it is very, very expensive.
    The original generation of plants are coming to their end of life and the decommissioning is proving to be harder and again, more expensive than first thought.

  4. What I find totally bizarre about dumpf being potus is that if anyone wanted to get a job in sensitive areas of the government we would have to have security clearances requiring whole of life plus our families and friends possibly undergoing whole of life checks. Doesn’t potus have to have checks similarly, if so what sort of security check did they do if none of his particular peccadilloes were discovered, none of his dodgy financial activities, none of his bullying or cosying up to foreign governments being found out.
    Which agency in US is responsible for security checks and why didn’t they discover all these things long before he was allowed to run for president.

  5. Havachat

    What I find totally bizarre about dumpf being potus is that if anyone wanted to get a job in sensitive areas of the government we would have to have security clearances requiring whole of life plus our families and friends possibly undergoing whole of life checks.

    I don’believe that our Federal politicians are subject to the equivalent of standard govt APS staff checks.

  7. peg

    You posted earlier about Labor not supporting the Greens motion against the drug testing laws. I’ve just seen a transcript of Senator Gallagher’s explanation for this which is:

    1. Labor is waiting for answers to questions submitted from the Minister.

    2. Labor has asked for briefings from DSS & DHS on the issue.

    3. Labor is holding meetings with key stakeholders, such as frontline health professionals.

    4. Labor has yet to see the Bill.

    5. In the light of all of this, Labor asked Siewert to delay her motion, but she refused.

    Rushing in without consultation is why the Greens ended up in a bind with Gonski 2.0.

    Or do the Greens think they know everything already and so they don’t need to actually talk to the people who do?

  8. Need to unload.
    The long slow slide to centre right mediocrity in the CPG. The clubbish, insider, utterly predictable commentary, cowed and deferential to the LNP.

    The fear of calling how it really is outside the Canberra bubble.

    Oh for a brave, fearless Polly Toynbee equivalent in Australia prepared to challenge the received wisdom of the Canberra bubble.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/16/theresa-may-scared-grenfell-survivors-finished-austerity-cameron-osborne

  9. bemused @ #1321 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 8:26 pm

    grimace @ #1316 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 8:12 pm

    bemused @ #1165 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 3:07 pm

    grimace @ #1156 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 2:48 pm
    I responded to your message last night early this morning. East coast – west coast dialogues get difficult as the evening wears on.

    I saw it thanks, in Sale in a couple of weeks and have nothing to do outside of work, and this trip I’m aiming to severely limit my alcohol intake, and the trip coincides with the fortnightly Sale Toastmasters meeting, so I’ll get there.

    That should be interesting to see how they compare with your club.
    Will you give a speech? Something provocative for an LNP area?

    Provocative I can do. Ellenbrook is a very liberal/progressive club and pretty much anything goes with speech content. A couple of the other clubs in our area are very conservative in their membership, and the speech I gave a couple of weeks ago would not go down at all well at a conservative club.

    The video has been uploaded to YouTube and I’d be reluctant to post it even here, I don’t want my fellow bludgers getting the wrong idea about me. The speech project was “the moral of the story” from the Storytelling manual and it’s about an act of revenge I had on an ex.

  10. “I don’believe that our Federal politicians are subject to the equivalent of standard govt APS staff checks.”
    This sounds even weirder, our politicians that spend half their time whispering sweet nothings in the ears of scribblers from the local toilet publishers and the other half of their valuable time prostrating themselves before very rich representatives of foreign governments begging for money don’t undergo any security checks at all.
    If I wanted to work for in a govt agency they would want to know everything from my whole life down to the side I dress on when putting on my trousers but if I wanted to get into government I am free from any checks and can go canoodling any foreign person whether a representative of a foreign government and beg them for money.

    As I said it is totally bizarre when only the plebs are so untrustworthy that they need to be investigated along with their families, their friends, the clubs and association but the rulers are deemed to be trusted by the fact that they are in power. F***ing odd

  11. I recall reading (or at least I think I do) when I as a student nearly 50 years ago that under the Westminster System Members of Parliament couldn’t be arrested or detained whilst Parliament was in session.

    Those three better hope Parliament sits a long, long time.

  12. bemused @ #1341 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 9:26 pm

    Actually, I was listening to a report on the BBC last night and it was mentioned that there are 2 types of filling in the cladding, fire-retardant and non-flammable.
    Presumably the polystyrene treated with chemicals is supposed to be fire retardant. Clearly it isn’t to any satisfactory degree.
    The non-flammable filling was characterised as ‘mineral’. Asbestos anyone? What else could it be, does anyone know?

    I do work for a very large industrial insulation company and they have several products which are referred to as various types of “wool”. It’s used for both cryogenic and thermal (smelters, coal/gas power plants etc), the thermal wool wouldn’t burn even if you took an oxy-acetylene torch to it after it had had the appropriate industrial coating applied to it.

  13. fulvio sammut @ #1361 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 11:23 pm

    I recall reading (or at least I think I do) when I as a student nearly 50 years ago that under the Westminster System Members of Parliament couldn’t be arrested or detained whilst Parliament was in session.
    Those three better hope Parliament sits a long, long time.

    What’s extradition like between the ACT and Victoria?

    I can just see the Feds lining up at all the doors to the Chamber waiting.

  15. Actually, Googling the issue I have just read that this protection from arrest extend only to arrest in civil matters, not from criminal activity. Doesn’t make much sense to me. I can only think of “arrest” in a civil sense in terms of an absconding debtors warrant (do they still exist?) or for failure to appear in a civil court in answer to a subpoena or witness summons.

    Now, is contempt of court, in relation to comments on a criminal trial, a civil or criminal contempt?

  16. That Daesh leader that a Liberal party defence minister was unable to name has reportedly been killed in a Russian airstrike

  17. Guardian reporting the cladding used was not the fire retardant type all to save 2 Pounds per square meter…

    Whaaaaat!!..??

    Ok.. So just HOW MANY will be charged for Manslaughter??

  19. john boy @ #1367 Saturday, June 17, 2017 at 12:00 am

    Guardian reporting the cladding used was not the fire retardant type all to save 2 Pounds per square meter…
    Whaaaaat!!..??
    Ok.. So just HOW MANY will be charged for Manslaughter??

    It’s the EU’s fault for not have imposed the German standard on all EU countries. 🙁

  23. FS

    I have just read that this protection from arrest extend only to arrest in civil matters, not from criminal activity.

    It was to stop the monarch sending in people to drag people out of the house while it was actually debating.

  26. zoomster @ #1333 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 9:05 pm

    Don
    the best birds I ever had were a pair of nesting kingfishers. They would not tolerate another bird in their vicinity. For year after year, I had cherries and strawberries by the bucketload — and then one summer, the kingfishers vanished.
    I now have lots and lots of birds but no cherries or strawberries…

    We have both, but we net them. I have espaliered the cherries on an east facing brick wall, and fix the net to the top of the wall and hang it down over the cherries. Easy to put up and take down. Similarly with the strawberries, in semi circular pots on the chook house run, with nets fixed above them. We get several kilos of cherries every year, and lots of strawberries.

  27. Not only is Trump a narcissist, but he has Obsessive Compulsive Disorder. This from the WaPO.

    “– White House aides are privately fretting to one another over Trump’s obsession with the probe, Politico’s Josh Dawsey reports: “Trump, for months, has bristled almost daily about the ongoing probes. He has sometimes, without prompting, injected ‘I’m not under investigation’ into conversations with associates and allies. He has watched hours of TV coverage every day — sometimes even storing morning news shows on his TiVo to watch in the evening — and complained nonstop. ‘It’s basically all he talks about on the phone,’ said one adviser. … Aides have tried to change the subject, with little luck. Two people close to Trump note that his is an obsessive personality [but staffers] say they fear his incendiary tweets and public comments have spurred ‘countless’ leaks of damaging information.”

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