Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

With much of the country enjoying a long weekend, a status quo reading from Essential Research is the only new voting intention result for the week.

The Guardian reports that the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, which has been delayed a day due to Monday’s public holiday, has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, after it fell from 53-47 last week. Primary votes will have to wait until later today. UPDATE: Full report here, with primary votes at Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 8% (up two).

Other reported findings focus on terrorism and a low emissions target, with the former including a 47% approval rating for Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of the terror threat, compared with 56% in October 2015, and 24% disapproval, compared with 17%; 74% saying the terrorism threat in Australia has risen over recent years; 46% saying the government should be spending more on counter-terrorism, compared with only 9% for less; and 44% saying there should be more restrictions on rights and freedoms to combat terrorism, with only 12% saying current restrictions go too far, and 19% believing the current balance is right.

With respect to carbon emissions, 44% favour a low emissions target and 20% an emissions intensity scheme, with 36% opting for don’t know; and 27% saying capture and storage from coal generation should count as a low emissions energy source, compared with 29% who disagreed.

Also this week:

• The Australia Institute has published a ReachTEL poll of the Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong, which after incorporating prompting responses for the undecided finds primary votes of Liberal 48.9% (58.2% at the election), Labor 25.5% (19.8%) and Greens 17.0% (18.9%), and a respondent-allocated two-party result of 56-44 to Liberal (63.3-36.7). The poll also records a 77.9-15.5 split in favour of a clean energy target,

• Western Australian Senator Chris Back has announced he will retire as of the end of July, leaving a vacancy for a three-year term that runs to mid-2019. Andrew Burrell of The Australian identifies two possible successors: Slade Brockman, former chief-of-staff to Mathias Cormann, who is rated the front-runner; and Matt O’Sullivan, chief operating officer of Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous youth employment scheme, who ran unsuccessfully in the southern Perth seat of Burt at last year’s federal election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,379 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 25 of 28
1 … 24 25 26 … 28

  1. Don
    500 mW of PV is a massive amount for a single installer in just one region. The total installed Australia wide is only 6000 mW.

  2. zoomster @ #1200 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 4:25 pm

    bemused
    I have addressed the deficiencies in the education system many times; that you chose to portray me as a blind defender of the system and ignore my many criticisms of it is your problem, not mine.

    I sought your comment on an article appearing today.

  3. ‘”Inclusive education is really a big part of policy in Scandinavian countries, which see students as citizens who are making strong decisions in their education,” Ms Lamoin said.

    “There’s a lot of experimentation and discovery in their learning, and shorter school days with more focus on extra-curricular activities. ‘

    Absolutely agree; I have commented before on how Victoria (at least) has abandoned inclusive education in favour of ‘back to basics’, and that the original version of the VCE (not the trial one bemused’s son cheated in, or the compromised thing we have now) modelled this kind of learning.

  4. Don **We are one of those.**
    We are not. We are the poor, the renters, the shaded, the irregular roofed. And we are not happy.

  5. Trog Sorrenson @ #1202 Friday, June 16th, 2017 – 4:27 pm

    Don
    500 mW of PV is a massive amount for a single installer in just one region. The total installed Australia wide is only 6000 mW.

    Can’t be. There’s 5,000,000 mW installed on my roof alone. And that’s liable to double in the next year or so (depending on how fast Powerwall 2 prices drop).

  6. zoomster @ #1203 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 4:29 pm

    ‘”Inclusive education is really a big part of policy in Scandinavian countries, which see students as citizens who are making strong decisions in their education,” Ms Lamoin said.
    “There’s a lot of experimentation and discovery in their learning, and shorter school days with more focus on extra-curricular activities. ‘
    Absolutely agree; I have commented before on how Victoria (at least) has abandoned inclusive education in favour of ‘back to basics’, and that the original version of the VCE (not the trial one bemused’s son cheated in, or the compromised thing we have now) modelled this kind of learning.

    My teacher friends reported similar experiences with the original VCE as my son reported in the VCE English his school trialled. It was seriously flawed.

  9. Don
    Not saying that 500mW is incorrect – just that it’s a lot. A great sign that we might start to make a dent on emissions.

  10. …As I have often said, we need to throw far more resources at the early years of education, particularly when it comes to identifying the students falling behind.

    I am concerned about the ‘decentralised’ approach taken by schools (at least in Victoria) where major decisions are made at a local level, with schools managing their own budgets. It all sounds jolly in theory, but in practice, schools focus on saving money over educational outcomes – particularly as school boards are (purposely) dominated by parents, and thus are obsessed about issues such as school uniform (it was often observed by students at one school I knew well that you got into more trouble for wearing the wrong shoes than you did for punching another student).

    All that said, I repeat what I’ve often said before: all systems can be improved, but the average student in NSW and Victoria receives as good an education as they will get anywhere in the world. We let ourselves down by our failure to deal properly with students facing disadvantage, and by the poverty of some of the smaller states, which means they can’t adequately fund their systems – and as these states are poor because their citizens are poor, they are also dealing with the students most in need.

  13. bemused

    And yet the article you refer to says that the countries outperforming us are doing so because they’re using educational approaches very similar to those of the original VCE.

  16. zoomster @ #1213 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 4:40 pm

    bemused
    And yet the article you refer to says that the countries outperforming us are doing so because they’re using educational approaches very similar to those of the original VCE.

    Really?
    The mad educational ideology of Kirnerism?
    Content free education?

  17. For anyone getting confused, a mW is one thousandth is a Watt. A MW is one million Watts.
    What a difference a case makes.

  18. bemused

    It wasn’t content free. If you really think it was, that just shows you don’t know what you’re talking about. But I knew that.

  19. here’s one to kick off debate among some here.
    Solar power will kill coal faster than you think

    Jess Shankleman and Hayley Warren

    565 reading now
    Show comments

    facebook SHARE
    twitter TWEET
    email

    BusinessDay: Sign up for our newsletter

    Solar power, once so costly it only made economic sense in spaceships, is becoming cheap enough that it will push coal and even natural-gas plants out of business faster than previously forecast.

    That’s the conclusion of a Bloomberg New Energy Finance outlook for how fuel and electricity markets will evolve by 2040.
    https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/06/14/essential-research-52-48-labor-9/comment-page-24/#comments

    The research group estimated solar already rivals the cost of new coal power plants in Germany and the US and by 2021 will do so in quick-growing markets such as China and India.

    The scenario suggests green energy is taking root more quickly than most experts anticipate. It would mean that global carbon dioxide pollution from fossil fuels may decline after 2026, a contrast with the International Energy Agency’s central forecast, which sees emissions rising steadily for decades to come
    get your scroll wheel ready. GO

  21. zoomster @ #1218 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 4:49 pm

    bemused
    It wasn’t content free. If you really think it was, that just shows you don’t know what you’re talking about. But I knew that.

    OK, very light on content and filled with a lot of fluff.
    Like ‘electricity’ in science being all about the impact of electricity on society rather than the physics of electricity.

  23. mrmoney @ #1219 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 4:49 pm

    —
    Solar power, once so costly it only made economic sense in spaceships, is becoming cheap enough that it will push coal and even natural-gas plants out of business faster than previously forecast.
    That’s the conclusion of a Bloomberg New Energy Finance outlook for how fuel and electricity markets will evolve by 2040.
    —

    Oh dear…. P1 will burst into tears when it reads that.

  25. here’s something for those pushing Adani

    Coal will be the biggest victim, with 369 gigawatts of projects standing to be cancelled, according to BNEF. That’s about the entire generation capacity of Germany and Brazil combined.

    Capacity of coal will plunge even in the US, where President Donald Trump is seeking to stimulate fossil fuels. BNEF expects the nation’s coal-power capacity in 2040 will be about half of what it is now after older plants come offline and are replaced by cheaper and less-polluting sources such as gas and renewables.

  26. mrmoney @ #1224 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 4:59 pm

    here’s the link sorry
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/solar-power-will-kill-coal-faster-than-you-think-20170615-gws83v.html

    By no means endorsing the article, but I think I’ll just put this tiny quote from it here …

    Natural gas will reap $US804 billion, bringing 16 per cent more generation capacity and making the fuel central to balancing a grid that’s increasingly dependent on power flowing from intermittent sources, like wind and solar.

  27. The data suggest wind and solar are quickly becoming major sources of electricity, brushing aside perceptions that they’re too expensive to rival traditional fuels.

    By 2040, wind and solar will make up almost half of the world’s installed generation capacity, up from just 12 per cent now, and account for 34 per cent of all the power generated, compared with 5 per cent at the moment, BNEF concluded.

  28. 1. https://www.buzzfeed.com/robstott/the-government-has-fixed-native-title-law-just-like-it?utm_term=.ea711kvvkw#.pn2zz0NN0k

    Controversial amendments to the Native Title Act have passed the Senate with the support of Labor and the Coalition.

    The vote passed the senate on Wednesday afternoon, with only the Greens opposed.

    The amendments make it easier for companies such as Adani to secure Indigenous Land Use Agreements (ILUAs) from traditional owners, as they would only need agreement from a majority of traditional owners, not unanimous consent.

    2. http://wanganjagalingou.com.au/native-title-law-now-tainted-by-adani/

    Traditional Owners fighting Adani’s proposed coal mine have expressed profound disappointment at the passage of Attorney General Brandis’ amendments to the Native Title Act, stressing that while Mabo’s legacy has been diminished they will continue to fight for their rights.

    3. http://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2017/06/unfinished-business-adani-state-and-indigenous-rights

    “This has been widely described as a rushed process, by a Government apparently determined to push through their ‘Adani Bill’ and support the go-ahead of Adani’s proposed Carmichael mine.

    “Our report describes ‘unfinished business’ between Adani and the Wangan and Jagalingou Traditional Owners Council, with the Council’s legal campaigns – set to run until at least 2018 – offering the last legal line of defence against the go-ahead of the mine.”

  31. bemused: “What is your “political worldview”?”

    I thought it was fairly clear, but I can express it again. My political worldview is a rather curious mixture of views that are typically categorised as “left” and “right”.

    On the left side, I’m pro-environment (and cannot abide climate change deniers), pro-choice, pro-SSM and similar. And, while I’m not in favour of big government per se, I’m in favour of the government providing services where this is more efficient and effective than having the private sector do so (but this should be rigorously and continuously tested).
    On the right side, I’m generally in favour of lower taxes and requiring people living of the largesse of the taxpayer being required to make more of an effort: including, where practicable, some of the asset value of the family home being used to pay for retirement income and services. I’m also totally unimpressed with political correctness in all its forms (and am happy to explain what I mean by the term) and pretty unsympathetic to people who attempt to arrive in Australia without authorisation to seek asylum. And I would like to see violent offenders treated more harshly by the criminal justice system.

    I think it’s probably around the issues of asylum seekers, violent offenders and political correctness that Marilyn Warren and I would think quite differently.

  36. meher baba @ #1231 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 5:12 pm

    bemused: “What is your “political worldview”?”
    I thought it was fairly clear, but I can express it again. My political worldview is a rather curious mixture of views that are typically categorised as “left” and “right”.
    On the left side, I’m pro-environment (and cannot abide climate change deniers), pro-choice, pro-SSM and similar. And, while I’m not in favour of big government per se, I’m in favour of the government providing services where this is more efficient and effective than having the private sector do so (but this should be rigorously and continuously tested).
    On the right side, I’m generally in favour of lower taxes and requiring people living of the largesse of the taxpayer being required to make more of an effort: including, where practicable, some of the asset value of the family home being used to pay for retirement income and services. I’m also totally unimpressed with political correctness in all its forms (and am happy to explain what I mean by the term) and pretty unsympathetic to people who attempt to arrive in Australia without authorisation to seek asylum. And I would like to see violent offenders treated more harshly by the criminal justice system.
    I think it’s probably around the issues of asylum seekers, violent offenders and political correctness that Marilyn Warren and I would think quite differently.

    Your right side stuff is largely just nutty.
    Victoria has half the prison population of NSW, lower crime rate, lower sentences on average, and lower recidivism. So which do you prefer?
    And punishing people unable to get a job when the jobs just aren’t there is equally nutty. Government should make ‘full employment’ a key objective.
    A violent offender got a 60 year sentence today. So how much harsher do you want?
    And you repudiate International Agreements we have entered into regarding Asylum Seekers?
    More like Right Wing Populism than a more considered approach.

  42. The fly in the ointment for the LNP are the NSW greens.
    What will the dark wiggle do ?
    .
    .
    In a sign of the internal complexities for the Greens, the NSW branch of the party has already called on their federal colleagues to scuttle the package.

    “The NSW Greens don’t accept that anything less than the original model of needs-based funding proposed by the Gonski review panel should be supported and we unequivocally call on the federal Liberal-National government to go back to the drawing board,” NSW Greens education spokeswoman Tamara Smith said recently.

  43. antonbruckner11 @ #1241 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 5:48 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/16/our-politicians-show-an-alarming-ignorance-of-the-separation-of-powers
    Excellent article on the Contemptuous Three.
    Bemused: Most judges I know (many of whom I do not like!) have a tremendous collegiate spirit and belief in justice. Doesn’t mean they always provide it. But they’re doing their best.

    I would agree some do.
    I don’t agree some are always doing their best.
    Prosecutors also leave a lot to be desired and bring cases to court that should never get anywhere near court.

  46. VP

    So, I guess every time Labor negotiates with the Coalition over amendments to proposed legislation, before voting in support of same legislation, that’s “folding”?

  47. One for the solar engineers. I’ve been told my roof is not suitable for solar PV because, despite being north facing, the line of old native gum trees in my front yard shade the roof from midday onwards. I’m not prepared to remove the trees, as they are quite elegant and are home to a family of magpies. Any thoughts?

  48. antonbruckner11 @ #1245 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 5:53 pm

    Bemused, you won’t get an argument from me about prosecutors. They’re in it to win.

    One of my sons, along with a hundred or so others, witnessed a minor brawl. He got spoken to by coppers, and let on he knew some of those involved. They were not model citizens. He did not want to face retribution so refused to give evidence although he did provide information.
    Cops retaliated by charging him.
    The evidence presented in court? Someone saw someone wearing a red/orange t-shirt who was close to the action and may have been involved but were not actually seen to do anything. My son, according to police, was wearing a red shirt! But it was a long sleeved shirt, bright red and definitely not a t-shirt.
    So how did the OPP figure there was a case there?
    Judge threw it out without defence presenting any evidence.

  49. Which faction are you from Peg, the one that wants​ to cut $20 billion from gonski, or from the greens that back Labor’s​ gonski ?

Comments Page 25 of 28
1 … 24 25 26 … 28

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *