The Guardian reports that the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, which has been delayed a day due to Monday’s public holiday, has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, after it fell from 53-47 last week. Primary votes will have to wait until later today. UPDATE: Full report here, with primary votes at Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 8% (up two).
Other reported findings focus on terrorism and a low emissions target, with the former including a 47% approval rating for Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of the terror threat, compared with 56% in October 2015, and 24% disapproval, compared with 17%; 74% saying the terrorism threat in Australia has risen over recent years; 46% saying the government should be spending more on counter-terrorism, compared with only 9% for less; and 44% saying there should be more restrictions on rights and freedoms to combat terrorism, with only 12% saying current restrictions go too far, and 19% believing the current balance is right.
With respect to carbon emissions, 44% favour a low emissions target and 20% an emissions intensity scheme, with 36% opting for don’t know; and 27% saying capture and storage from coal generation should count as a low emissions energy source, compared with 29% who disagreed.
Also this week:
• The Australia Institute has published a ReachTEL poll of the Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong, which after incorporating prompting responses for the undecided finds primary votes of Liberal 48.9% (58.2% at the election), Labor 25.5% (19.8%) and Greens 17.0% (18.9%), and a respondent-allocated two-party result of 56-44 to Liberal (63.3-36.7). The poll also records a 77.9-15.5 split in favour of a clean energy target,
• Western Australian Senator Chris Back has announced he will retire as of the end of July, leaving a vacancy for a three-year term that runs to mid-2019. Andrew Burrell of The Australian identifies two possible successors: Slade Brockman, former chief-of-staff to Mathias Cormann, who is rated the front-runner; and Matt O’Sullivan, chief operating officer of Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous youth employment scheme, who ran unsuccessfully in the southern Perth seat of Burt at last year’s federal election.
windhover @ #1040 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 11:41 am
{Bemused:
Surely that media bias needs to be “monitored” and understood. No?
And if it needs to be monitored surely that monitoring should be “continuous”. No?
And if media bias needs to be “continuously monitored” surely it is important to explain how and why the bias is distorting reality. No?
Sure, you can pejoratively call that continuous monitoring and explaining “continuous moaning” but whatever you call it surely it is important. No?}
Don’t use those square brackets, they are a trap.
Some people actually do get out and engage in campaigning activities which are constructive and counter any media bias, real or imagined.
The moaners just…moan.
You can be sure Labor is monitoring the media, but there is little that can be done under the current ownership and legislative framework.
To mis-quote Joe Hill: “Don’t moan, organise!”
P1
I don’t feel qualified to comment on the main point of difference between yourself and Trog (and others), which is your contention that gas power will be required in the medium term because renewables cannot ramp up quick enough.
I should be up to speed on those issues but I am not.
Martha
We are already at 8,000,000 kW if you add what’s currently under construction, so your 2020 figure doesn’t hold up.
As I stated earlier, the local numbers have been distorted by subsidies applied a few years ago that were later reduced or withdrawn. This has caused a flattening in the curve in teh past few years. (The underlying curve from 2001 onwards is exponential.)
The global data shows 46% compound annual growth and based on a larger data set.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics
This, in light of the London fire, is why we have regulations. Well said: https://twitter.com/ProfDaveAndress/status/874969107883544577
Trog
I was relying only on a simple analysis of the data in the PV link. I am not in a position to comment on how well that data reflects reality. The key point is that the rate of increase in PV output has been roughly constant (according to the figures in the link). That is what you expect for a linear rather than exponential increase in PV output.
I’m going with P1 on this. The data does not show exponential growth and any projection based on exponential growth will quickly diverge from reality.
Trog while you can fit a curve to the endpoints of 2010 & 2017 to match your assertion of 70% compound growth, as Martha explained, when you plot the intervening years it is easy to see how bad the fit is.
victoria Friday, June 16, 2017 at 11:54 am
phoenixRed
I suspect Kushner was already in the sights of Law enforcement quite some time ago. his own father was in jail for quite some time. Kushner obviously saw a like minded person in Trump. like sticks with like. Lol!
Pence has now engaged outside Counsel. Fingers crossed my initial thoughts about Pence hold and he doesnt get his hands on the Presidency.
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I think he is a “goner’ ………………taken out by his Flynn association …….. Sessions – liar and perjurer …… Ryan allegedly on tape colluding with Russians funding …. maybe we will get down in succession so far as Hatch ?????
Where did I hear all this stuff before a few months back ??? – oh yes – it was Schindler/Taylor/Mensch/Laufer/Broadsword/Dworkin and others on here….. I don’t guess they got everything 100% correct but ….. the chess game is still going on and they are in front so far ….
Thanks Kevjohnno…nicely put!
In the light of zero response from P1 re constraints on the solar pv rollout maintaining at least 46% compound annual growth over the next few years, I can only assume it is one or more of the following:
1) running out of solar panels
2) running out of solar installers
3) running out of phillips head screwdrivers
4) power prices dropping faster than the cost of solar panels
5) a massive outbreak of rabies keeping solar installers indoors.
6) insert your own here….
CTar1,
You well could be right. The MSM hiding behind its ” integrity and principals ” argument. I find their righteous at a so called breach of journalistic ” ethics ” laughable.
One recent example of their lack of any ethics was lain bare yesterday in QT and has pretty much flown under the radar.
Earlier this week Fairfax published, in a long line of anti labor pieces over the last two weeks, another ” labor and its Chinese connections ” piece this time hitting Joel Fitzgibbon. It was a rehash of old accusations and insinuations going back almost 10 years and simply tarted up to fit its current fixation on labor and Chinese connections.
Yesterday in QT Julie Bishop ripped into Fitzgibbon about contradictions in the recent story compared to a sworn statement he gave 8 years ago in a defamation case he prosecuted against Fairfax at that time over the same rubbish.
Bishop held up a email Fitzgibbon had sent to one of the Fairfax journos last week in response to a series of questions put to Fitzibbon prior to the story appearing this week. That email could only have come from the Fairfax journos and Bishop used it yesterday to attack Fitzgibbon. So, how ethical was that ? A labor pollie replies to a a series of questions by email sent to him by a journo and that journo then gives a copy to Bishop who then uses it in a political attack on labor.
Spare me all the hand wringing by the MSM over confidentiality and breach of ethics and how scandalous the Turnbull leak was when in the same week a journo provides a confidential email to a government minister to be used against the very person who sent it.
Spare me.
All of this is alleged by the way and I do not accuse anyone of any breach of ethics of code of conduct.
Cheers.
I am just a humble lurker, but I do recall the know-alls belittling the CPG for drumming up a story about Rudd overthrow of Gillard. Then it happened of course.
It seems K Murphy is unpopular here because she was perceived as anti-Gillard, something I did not see. It seems to Adrian and others anything other than outright praise of Labor is biased.
The Guardian is an avowed left wing paper, right wing opinion articles are few. I think most people would see Fairfax as reasonable, SMH is centre-right, Age centre-left. And the ABC cops it from both sides.
Wow: “This man managed to escape from the 17th floor with his 68-year-old aunt. He told me how he got out”
https://twitter.com/AssedBaig/status/874853960863141890
http://www.energymatters.com.au/renewable-news/australia-posts-record-renewable-energy-growth-em6062/
I don’t normally mind Barrie Cassidy, but this comment makes me want to puke.
@barriecassidy on Turnbull: “I don’t think anything journalists organise should be off the record. It’s the antithesis of what we’re about”
The Press Gallery ball is a private occasion at which there has been a long tradition of politicians from both sides being able to let their hair down and crack a few jokes. But we can’t have that any more apparently. So can we now have hidden cameras on the buses and planes that carry the press gallery around during election campaigns, recording their every drunken, juvenile antic? Would you like that Barrie, and Laurie, and others I could name?
What seems always to have been ok was for unscrupulous pollies – the classic case being Rudd – to make frequent self-serving “off the record” comments to the gallery with no purpose other than to undermine their political enemies, and never have their cover blown. Apparently keeping the identities of these scumbags secret is entirely “what we’re about.”
Political journos, with a few honorable exceptions, are a bunch of hypocritical wankers. Roll on the demise of the mainstream media.
CTar1,
You well could be right. The MSM hiding behind its ” integrity and principals ” argument. I find their righteous at a so called breach of journalistic ” ethics ” laughable.
One recent possible example of their lack of any ethics was lain bare yesterday in QT and has pretty much flown under the radar.
Earlier this week Fairfax published, in a long line of anti labor pieces over the last two weeks, another ” labor and its Chinese connections ” piece this time hitting Joel Fitzgibbon. It was a rehash of old accusations and insinuations going back almost 10 years and simply tarted up to fit its current fixation on labor and Chinese connections.
Yesterday in QT Julie Bishop ripped into Fitzgibbon about contradictions in the recent story compared to a sworn statement he gave 8 years ago in a defamation case he prosecuted against Fairfax at that time over the same rubbish.
Bishop held up a email Fitzgibbon had sent to one of the Fairfax journos last week in response to a series of questions put to Fitzibbon prior to the story appearing this week. I fail to see how that email could have originated from anyone else except the Fairfax journos and Bishop used it yesterday to attack Fitzgibbon. So, how ethical was that ? A labor pollie replies to a a series of questions by email sent to him by a journo and that very email then is waved around by a government minister in a QT attack against Fitzgibbon.
Spare me all the hand wringing by the MSM over confidentiality and breach of ethics and how scandalous the Turnbull leak was when in the same week, in the absence of any clear other explanation, a journo well could have provided a confidential email to a government minister to be used against the very person who sent it.
Spare me.
All of this is supposition by the way and I do not accuse anyone of any breach of ethics of code of conduct.
Cheers.
BC – In your link someone quoted a safety officer on the importance of regulations…
“These rules are written with peoples blood and guts”.
Red-tape should always be examined to see if it can be streamlined – but weaken them at your (and others) peril.
martha farquahar @ #1052 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 11:57 am
I can certainly understand if you are not interested. It is toxic trying to inject reality, logic and reason here on PB.
But if you are interested, read the Jacobs Report, and pay particular attention to the scenarios that Finkel didn’t mention in his report – e.g. the “Limited Lifetime EIS” scenario, which is a “proper” EIS – i.e. one actually designed to substantially reduce emissions – the one Finkel chose to use should be called a “lame” EIS, since it is designed to achieve the minimum emissions reductions, while maximizing the lifetime of coal generation.
Well we are agreed then.
People call PB a Lefty echo chamber, even though disagreement is really what sustains the blog. My problem is that the CPG is an actual fully functioning echo chamber. You can almost hear them worrying about their jobs. I am speaking from a general view of course, you can always find exceptions.
The budget included tax cuts for large companies, the removal of a levy on the top tax bracket that was supposed to be there to fix the deficit and an increase in a flat tax. It was largely applauded as “fair”, which was the word of the day, but has since disappeared up its own nonsense. The biggest attacks on the budget came from the right. Surely that tells us something?
Partisan me doesn’t think Murphy is that bad, but the piles of correspondents she attracts suggest there is a large market out there for an unapologetic Lefty POV in our media. I would like it if the CPG argued more among themselves rather than pretended to be observers. It would hone their arguments/opinions and might even increase their readership.
Relatively speaking the Guardian is toward Left, but it’s hardly out there. Ironically, a large chunk of the better coverage for the ALP and Greens comes from economic reporters, who seem to deal more in fact than gossip. Ironic, because for some reason the electorate still think, despite all the evidence, that the L-NP are better economic managers. Perhaps that just goes to show how little positive media coverage matters?
William,
Please delete my 12.06 post if you have any troubles with it.
Cheers.
phoenixRed
yep. Taylor/Schindler/Wilson/Mensch etc have been consistent throughout the duration. As I have expressed many times in past, it has been difficult for me to trust Mensch generally. this is due to her whole tory brexit spiel. I have never really trusted Mensch and her motivations generally, but a lot of what she said concurred with my own bias, so I have stuck it out until now. having said that, she gets the most push back and hate online. Probably because she is so pushy herself and doesnt care whose feet she steps on.
Peter Love: “I am just a humble lurker, but I do recall the know-alls belittling the CPG for drumming up a story about Rudd overthrow of Gillard. Then it happened of course.
It seems K Murphy is unpopular here because she was perceived as anti-Gillard, something I did not see. It seems to Adrian and others anything other than outright praise of Labor is biased.
The Guardian is an avowed left wing paper, right wing opinion articles are few. I think most people would see Fairfax as reasonable, SMH is centre-right, Age centre-left. And the ABC cops it from both sides.”
Given that they now share about 80% of their content, I don’t see how you can see the SMH as being to the right of the Age. These days, both are what I would call “silvertail left”: pitching to tertiary-educated, double income households who vote Labor or Green but also have enough money to travel overseas frequently, buy investment properties and flash cars, send their kids to private schools, etc.
Otherwise, I completely agree with your post. But, if you are looking for an argument: don’t worry, other posters will oblige.
trog sorrenson @ #1059 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 12:05 pm
Saturation of the market.
But that means just about every household and enterprise has them installed.
Kevjohnno
I have already explained this more than once. The recent data, while showing massive growth, is distorted by subsidies. When they were phased in stimulating the market (e.g. up to $8000 rebate) and then withdrawn, flattening out the growth curve in recent years.
Just the 2017 data alone – 2000 mW large scale solar currently under construction excluding rooftop on a base of about 6000mW.
This is 33% compound growth already on a base of 6000mW. It is still only June, and the figure does not include behind the meter domestic pv!
test
meher baba
the msm arent the only hypocrites here. just look at the crapola being dished out by Turnbull Bishop and other coalition MPs. it is vomit inducing stuff to be fair
BTW, K Murphy did once work in John Howard’s office: as I recall it, she advised him on Indigenous issues. I think she’s a classic sort of “small l liberal” of a type now almost gone from the party.
According to a number of bloggers Katherine Murphy used to work for Lucy Turnbull (talking about incestuous) and it shows in her constant boosting of Malcolm. They really should get a room. Apart from her, the Guardian is pretty good, but since she’s the political editor (and totally clueless) its a big black mark.
phoenixRed
and another thing I have been gleaning over past few months from some folks on twitter who are connected to Australia. It would appear that our intel actually has some really incriminating stuff on Trump and hence why McCain and the US intel bosses have been here recently.
I am thinking this is why Turnbull got the confidence pills at the mid winter ball to parody Trump. I could be wrong, but it sure feels that way
Victoria: “the msm arent the only hypocrites here. just look at the crapola being dished out by Turnbull Bishop and other coalition MPs. it is vomit inducing stuff to be fair”
If you mean in relation to the leak of Turnbull’s speech, then I reckon fair enough, just as I would if it had been Shorten’s speech that had been leaked.
Oakes should hang his head in shame.
BTW, using Cicero’s time-honoured investigative approach of asking “cui bono?”, my money would be on the leak coming from someone on Turnbull’s side of politics who wants to damage him. In the warped mind of the press gallery, this would be acceptable because it would be a sign of the start of a campaign to replace Turnbull: in the same way that it was supposedly ok to report Paul Keating’s private “Placido Domingo” speech to the Press Gallery in 1990 six months after it occurred, thereby setting off the first challenge to Hawke.
Either these events are private, or they are not. With the advent of youtube and facebook it’s probably not tenable for them to remain private in future. However, this leak wasn’t posted to youtube, it was published by the most senior Press Gallery journo.
victoria Friday, June 16, 2017 at 12:17 pm
phoenixRed
yep. Taylor/Schindler/Wilson/Mensch etc have been consistent throughout the duration. As I have expressed many times in past, it has been difficult for me to trust Mensch generally. this is due to her whole tory brexit spiel. I have never really trusted Mensch and her motivations generally, but a lot of what she said concurred with my own bias, so I have stuck it out until now. having said that, she gets the most push back and hate online. Probably because she is so pushy herself and doesnt care whose feet she steps on.
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I think she is a very strange person and I can easily see how many would dislike her intensely …… and some of the stuff she wrote months ago seemed “way out” …..but as time has passed a lot has happened as she said it would.
I think her corroborating with others like John Schindler/ Claude Taylor/ Rick Wilson in a “team effort” has given some credibility to what they have laid out to those who follow them. There is still a LONG way to go with this …..
victoria Friday, June 16, 2017 at 12:26 pm
I want to see Trump gone as much as anyone (although I think the VP is potentially worse). However, I find it a bit hard to believe the idea that our intelligence agencies would have any “incriminating stuff on Trump”. Where, how and from whom would they obtain this information?
meher baba
I believe the Turnbull jokes were leaked because it could actually be beneficial to him in the long run.
As I said earlier, and for those who know my feelings on the Trump imbroglio. Trump deserves ridicule and to be ousted as President. he is a traitorous duplicitous piece of excrement. and despite all that, Turnbull as PM should not have parodied Trump under the current circumstances. he chose to do so because he thought it would boost his popularity and he was on safe ground to do so. this is because he sees the end game for Trump. a cynical opportunist is what Turnbull has always been. to be cross with Oakes is putting your frustration in the wrong basket in my view.
trog sorrenson @ #1073 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 12:20 pm
Trog, I had a look at the data you linked to and agree with others that it is not exponential. It appears exponential for a brief period in 2010 – 11 before resuming linear growth at a quite high rate. Prior to 2010 it is a very low rate of linear growth.
Looks like I can’t always trust my automatic assumption that P1 is lying although it is based on a lot of past data.
AntonBruckner11: “According to a number of bloggers Katherine Murphy used to work for Lucy Turnbull (talking about incestuous) and it shows in her constant boosting of Malcolm. They really should get a room. Apart from her, the Guardian is pretty good, but since she’s the political editor (and totally clueless) its a big black mark.”
So what? Barrie Cassidy worked for Hawke (as did Andrew Bolt!), Kerry O’Brien worked for Whitlam, Laura Tingle’s hubby Alan Ramsey worked for Hayden, etc., etc.
I reckon Murphy is one of the better Press Gallery journos going around. Given her Liberal Party background, it was a big surprise to see her take up her post at the Guardian, but I reckon she’s been excellent there: indeed the largely female political reporting team at the Guardian (Lenore Taylor, Murphy, Gabrielle Chan, Bridie Jabour, etc.) are all first rate IMO. And I’m just about the most right-wing poster on this forum.
phoenixRed
agree she is tres weird.
victoria Friday, June 16, 2017 at 12:26 pm
phoenixRed
and another thing I have been gleaning over past few months from some folks on twitter who are connected to Australia. It would appear that our intel actually has some really incriminating stuff on Trump and hence why McCain and the US intel bosses have been here recently.
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Interesting you say this Victoria as I am just reading a statement put out by Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein who has just issued an unusual statement basically telling people not to believe “leaks”…… particularly when they could not identify the country or the persons where the leaks are coming from …..
Some have hinted on the alleged pee/sex ‘tapes’ being released as the basis for his statement to try and be a jump ahead and to ignore anything that discredits Trump and Co …
phoenixRed
oh really. now that is interesting. Where was this statement reported?
Victoria: “I believe the Turnbull jokes were leaked because it could actually be beneficial to him in the long run.”
Well, there’s a precedent for this in Rudd’s seeming encouragement of Chris Mitchell to publish his sneering send up of George W Bush. But that, as with most of Rudd’s management of the media, was designed to puff up Rudd’s image: Rudd being one of those unfortunate mortals for whom no amount of positive media coverage could ever been quite enough, and even the slightest public criticism the source of great humiliation and suffering.
Turnbull does not suffer from Rudd’s desperate lack of self-confidence: he’s always been full of himself. I can’t really see why he would want to be seen to be putting Trump down in this way. Trump is the current hero of the hardcore right of the Liberal Party, so not only is this not in the national interest, it’s not in Turnbull’s personal interest either.
And it was a very mild sort of parody in which he was putting himself in the same basket as Trump and sending both of them up. If he’d wanted to really make something of it, he would have been more sarcastic.
phoenixRed
all cool. i just saw the statement on Claude Taylor’s twitterfeed. hmmm……..
How good was Kamala Harris in interrogating Sessions? She seemed to be setting him up for future problems that arise.
Of course, she should be good, being a past AG in California.
I notice some reports she was unfairly interrupted by McCain during the questioning. Some suggest this was due to sexism. Others due to her obvious qualifications for a future run at President.
trog sorrenson @ #1059 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 12:05 pm
I responded. Clearly you didn’t read the original link.
meher baba
as you say Turnbull is so full of himself that he cant help being a smug so and so. Again, I believe he did so in the belief that it would boost his popularity generally. I personally dont believe it is becoming of a sitting PM to do this to a sitting President. Even if that President is Donald Trump. There is a reason why heads of state do diplomacy.
meher baba @ #1084 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 12:38 pm
So you keep insisting.
I find you a bit all over the shop but mostly well worth reading.
victoria Friday, June 16, 2017 at 12:41 pm
phoenixRed
oh really. now that is interesting. Where was this statement reported?
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I don’t think I can copy it ?????? but go on Claude Taylors account to read it
trog sorrenson @ #1073 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 12:20 pm
No you haven’t. I have posted actual, current, independent, Australian data that flatly contradicts your claims, as others here have tried to point out to you.
Post some data of your own if you like, but don’t try and pretend the data I posted shows exponential growth – it clearly does not.
B.C.
are you following what is actually going on with the Trump imbroglio?
in fact the acting AG Rosenstein just issued a very weird statement about this stuff. which frankly, kinda confirms how much shit is going down.
Then why tell the joke to a room full of journo’s?
On the whole it is a positive for Turnbull. It offers both a distraction and a contrast to his previous fawning, which probably did him some damage. It also shows his humorous side.
On the other hand, I also see the point others are making about him being two faced, but I would think that : )
phoenixRed
you may have missed my follow up post. I found it on Taylors twitterfeed.
It is tres interesting indeed. why would Rosenstein feel the need to issue such a statement?
B.C. Friday, June 16, 2017 at 12:36 pm
victoria Friday, June 16, 2017 at 12:26 pm
I want to see Trump gone as much as anyone (although I think the VP is potentially worse). However, I find it a bit hard to believe the idea that our intelligence agencies would have any “incriminating stuff on Trump”. Where, how and from whom would they obtain this information?
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B.C. ………………. I cant categorically state where they might get intelligence on Trump but there does exist ” The Five Eyes ” alliance …
What is the Five Eyes?
The Five Eyes alliance is a secretive, global surveillance arrangement of States comprised of the United States National Security Agency (NSA), the United Kingdom’s Government Communications Headquarters(GCHQ), Canada’s Communications Security Establishment Canada (CSEC), the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD), and New Zealand’s Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB).
https://www.privacyinternational.org/node/51
Bemused
I keep repeating the effect of subsidies in recent years. Artificially accelerating the rate of growth circa 2010, and then reducing it progressively through to 2017 as subsidies were withdrawn. Pure exponential curves rarely happen in real environments due to constraints – e.g. withdrawal of subsidies – and artificial accelerators such as when the subsidies were imposed.
If growth in solar pv has been linear over that last 7 years, it has certainly broken out of this growth curve this year.
Looking at Zoidlord’s link http://www.energymatters.com.au/renewable-news/australia-posts-record-renewable-energy-growth-em6062/
We see 3549 mW of large scale under construction or planned in 2017. On a base of 6000mW total and excluding domestic.