The Guardian reports that the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, which has been delayed a day due to Monday’s public holiday, has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, after it fell from 53-47 last week. Primary votes will have to wait until later today. UPDATE: Full report here, with primary votes at Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 8% (up two).
Other reported findings focus on terrorism and a low emissions target, with the former including a 47% approval rating for Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of the terror threat, compared with 56% in October 2015, and 24% disapproval, compared with 17%; 74% saying the terrorism threat in Australia has risen over recent years; 46% saying the government should be spending more on counter-terrorism, compared with only 9% for less; and 44% saying there should be more restrictions on rights and freedoms to combat terrorism, with only 12% saying current restrictions go too far, and 19% believing the current balance is right.
With respect to carbon emissions, 44% favour a low emissions target and 20% an emissions intensity scheme, with 36% opting for don’t know; and 27% saying capture and storage from coal generation should count as a low emissions energy source, compared with 29% who disagreed.
Also this week:
• The Australia Institute has published a ReachTEL poll of the Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong, which after incorporating prompting responses for the undecided finds primary votes of Liberal 48.9% (58.2% at the election), Labor 25.5% (19.8%) and Greens 17.0% (18.9%), and a respondent-allocated two-party result of 56-44 to Liberal (63.3-36.7). The poll also records a 77.9-15.5 split in favour of a clean energy target,
• Western Australian Senator Chris Back has announced he will retire as of the end of July, leaving a vacancy for a three-year term that runs to mid-2019. Andrew Burrell of The Australian identifies two possible successors: Slade Brockman, former chief-of-staff to Mathias Cormann, who is rated the front-runner; and Matt O’Sullivan, chief operating officer of Andrew Forrest’s GenerationOne indigenous youth employment scheme, who ran unsuccessfully in the southern Perth seat of Burt at last year’s federal election.
‘BreakfastNews: .@barriecassidy on Turnbull: “I don’t think anything journalists organise should be off the record. It’s the antithesis of what we’re about” ‘
Seriously, does Cassidy understand the meaning of antithesis?
It is exactly what they are about, as they show on a daily basis.
PhoenixRed
It is delicious to see that all the players in the Trump imbroglio are under investigation. They are basically on notice……..
We are watching you and whatever quid pro quo was agreed to ain’t gonna happen under our watch
Someone on the Guardian has hit the nail on the head:
Newspoll leak, run out of dodgy 2.0 announcements.
Cormann’s response…
It’s all Libors fault
How original
adrian @ #1001 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 10:28 am
Serious question for you Adrian.
Do you really think there is some kind of vast conspiracy involving almost all journalists, editors, producers and others in the media to promote the LNP and attack Labor?
It would, of course, need to involve thousands of people and all of them would need to conceal its existence.
Adrian – I was saw Cassidy on the ABC this morning.
Not on the Turnbull speech, but on his general commentary about govt and couldn’t help but think that much of what he said echo’ed Tingle.
bemused
Well, that’s how Murdoch works – his editors know the lines he wants pushed, he doesn’t have to personally memo every one of them everyday for that to happen.
Surely you recognise that the ABC has been under attack from the day Howard was elected. Do you expect twenty plus years of budget cuts, board stacking, and public attacks to have no influence at all?
trog sorrenson @ #996 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 10:22 am
I am happy to let the actual data speak for itself, Trog. The story it tells is perfectly clear.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/the-surprising-number-of-american-adults-who-think-chocolate-milk-comes-from-brown-cows-20170615-gws81e.html
Meanwhile…..
limiting President Trump’s ability to waive sanctions faces an uncertain path in the House.
The measure was approved in a near unanimous vote Thursday in the Senate, where only Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) opposed the legislation, with Sanders specifically concerned about new Iran sanctions also in the bill. But House leadership hasn’t committed to taking it up, and there are early signs of pushback from the White House.
You’ve been caught out P1. Don’t compound the error.
Answer my question about constraints.
player one @ #1007 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 10:42 am
Trog has corrupted the link in his post. I have corrected it above, but here it is again:
Zoomster
Agree with you re the ABC
I haven’t been watching or listening to the ABC today, but I do recall when Shorten made a comment about Trump before US election, wtte that his policies were barking mad. ABC commentators with the aid of other msm and liberal Luvvies piled on Shorten.
Turnbull as PM mocking Trump as current President, would have been classed as a disaster if Shorten were the PM and he had done it. Of that I am positive.
What responsible lending authority would put out billions of dollars for a big new coal mine given the trajectory shown in this report?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-13/coal-s-era-starts-to-wane-as-world-shifts-to-cleaner-energy
Trog
A few basic lessons in primary school would help.
zoomster @ #1006 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 10:40 am
So one media proprietor manages to impose his will on his editors.
That is not the totality of the media. And it is not a conspiracy by journalists etc but directives from the top.
We recently had stunning example of sycophancy from Trump’s Cabinet members. I was relieved, because it put Turnbull’s efforts in New York out of my mind.
I was more relieved when I found what he really thought about the adolescent President.
My, what a trustworthy PM we have! You can trust anything he says, provided it’s said with a snigger behind your back.
trog sorrenson @ #1010 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 10:45 am
Don’t be absurd. The link and data I posted flatly contradicts (geddit?) your “exponenial growth” claim, as anyone with a ruler can plainly check for themselves.
Let me give you a clue: at least one constraint was mentioned in that link – actually two, if you read it very carefully. Did you not even bother to read it at all?
‘Do you really think there is some kind of vast conspiracy involving almost all journalists, editors, producers and others in the media to promote the LNP and attack Labor?’
Who mentioned conspiracy paleface? It’s called self interest.
bemused @ #1004 Friday, June 16th, 2017 – 10:36 am
It doesn’t need to be all journalists. Just a handful of editors at the handful of major media outlets, setting content policies for the journalists in their employ. And choosing who gets hired to be a journalist in the first place, and under what criteria.
If the people writing stories know that a certain slant is expected from the people who pay their wages, you can get systemic bias without invoking conspiracy. And it should be no surprise or secret that editors set content policies targeting a certain position on the political spectrum. Just look at some of the comments that have come out of Fairfax recently:
The outlet has a political position, which management is essentially directing journalists to reflect in their output. The implication is that any journalist who doesn’t may lose their job.
Apologies for the corruption of the link
http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses
This graph shows a 15% overall compound rate of growth in solar pv from 2001 -2017.
This is irrelevant. What is relevant is the rate in recent years, given the technological improvements and price drop.
This includes a near 70% compound rate of growth for the past 7 years.
Victoria
‘Turnbull as PM mocking Trump as current President, would have been classed as a disaster if Shorten were the PM and he had done it. Of that I am positive.’
Of course. Threat to the alliance, our best friend insulted etc etc. Much confected outrage and a duly chastened Shorten would be forced to apologise.
It looks pretty obvious that a Newspoll is coming up. Malcolm has run out of announceables, so it is raining dead cats. Would that be right?
His big problem with the “leak” is that a lot of Australians won’t see the joke. They’re wondering what Malcolm has to laugh about.
adrian @ #1018 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 10:54 am
Oh, so just a amazing coincidence with all that self interest aligning in your view?
So what did you make of Fran Kelly this morning being ever so gentle with Dan Tehan as she tried to entice him into repeating the sort of stuff that has 3 of his colleagues facing court this morning along with a journalist and editor?
Adrian
And hence why i don’t have much respect for our current band of CPG journos
P1
The growth curve in Australia is not exponential over the past few years because of thedistorting effects of subsidies, which pushed up growth a few years ago, and then were later reduced. This had the effect of flattening the curve. However the total growth from 2010 to 2017 in Australia is equivalent to 70% compounded annually.
I prefer to use the global number of 46% because it averages out localised political effects such as subsidies.
46% is therefore conservative.
If we use 46% we get 450% of December 31st 2016 installed solar pv by December 31st 2017.
350% is conservative.
Finkel claiming 350% by 2030 means he is either sucked in by Jacobs, or complicit in data manipulation.
If you don’t support these figures, please state the constraints on solar pv rollout clearly without reference to any article, or saying “you haven’t read the article” or some other transparent ploy.
Do it in your own words.
I meant:
If we use 46% we get 450% of December 31st 2016 installed solar pv by December 31st 2020.
trog sorrenson @ #1026 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 11:15 am
Why do you bother with the troll?
victoria Friday, June 16, 2017 at 10:31 am
PhoenixRed
It is delicious to see that all the players in the Trump imbroglio are under investigation. They are basically on notice……..
We are watching you and whatever quid pro quo was agreed to ain’t gonna happen under our watch
**************************************
Yes Victoria – I think that its the turning point – that Trump jump started the day he fired Comey – throw in the FBI, the NSA, all the IC stuff from domestic sources and foreign shore countries that Trump has insulted, NY AG Schneiderman’s RICO charges ……and I think a whole lot of Trump & Family and GOP politicians are starting to see their lives crumble.
They are all going to rue the day that Trump came into their lives …..
Right, bemused.
So you don’t need a conspiracy for media bias to happen within an organisation.
Bemused
It is not so much that I am bothered by P1, it’s just trying to fully expose the conservative’s lies, and get the argument onto a factual basis.
In this case, Finkel is the Coalition’s spokesman, and provider of their fig leaf. The more people who are aware of the lack of scientific rigor in the report the better, and I regard platforms such as PB as being important. P1 just muddies the waters.
I’m a bit reluctant to enter the energy wars but I have just put the data from the link Trog and P1 are arguing about into Excel.
The increase in Solar PV output from 2010 to 2017 is from 133,084 kW in January 2010 to 5,834,028 kW in January 2017.
This is roughly the increase that you would expect if the Solar PV output was increasing at 70% per annum.
However, when you chart the values for the intervening years is is clear that the increase is linear rather than exponential (basically the slope of the graph is constant rather than increasing).
This is important because it leads to very different extrapolations of usage in 2020. For the linear increase the value is about 8,000,000 kW for the exponential increase the value is about 27,000,000 kW.
Sorry Trog, but on this point P1 is correct.
Good morning all,
Many times in the past I have been completely wrong about how certain issues play out in the real world of those Australians who are completely nonplussed about the political circus and its daily MSM driven agenda.
But once more into the fray will I jump.
I cannot see any positive or negative for Turnbull out of all this. I cannot see too many Australians really giving a shit what Turnbull said and from a quick look at the Oakes video I believe many would have no idea what the MSM noise is all about.
Electricity bills, lack of job security, high house prices, stagnant wages etc etc etc would, I expect , rate much higher than some Canberra knees up involving Turnbull giving some inocuous dialogue about Trump.
I really believe the MSM and other commentators hugely over estimate the average Australians interest in all this.
Cheers.
[Player One
Friday, June 16, 2017 at 10:09 am
Goodness me! Isn’t it amazing what you find when you actually bother looking …
From http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses (my bold) …
Between 2001 and 2010 the growth in the market for solar PV was around 15%. A period of extremely rapid growth occurred between 2010-2013. The number of monthly installations stabilised through 2014 and 2015, and now appears to be trending slightly down in the residential sector, with an increase in the number of larger (commercial and utility-scale) PV systems keeping overall installed capacity high.
And then have a look at the graph on this page, showing growth in installed solar capacity from 2001 to now. Excuse my arithmetic ignorance, but to me that graph looks amazingly linear.]
Your arithmetic ignorance is excused P1, since you ask so nicely.
The graph from 2010 to now looks “amazingly linear”.
The graph from 2001 to now (your nominated period) looks “amazingly” exponential to me. If you use a ruler on your monitor I am sure you will agree.
zoomster @ #1029 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 11:20 am
There has always been media bias. It is no worse now than it has been in the past and there have been times in the past that it has been a whole lot worse.
Continually moaning about it achieves nothing.
Best to exploit whatever opportunities you get and minimise mistakes that provide your enemies in the media with opportunities.
And of course there is now social media so the effect of any media bias can be countered.
The case of Sarah Ferguson is a good example of what Zoomster and AR are talking about.
Crikey, even the so called satiric shows on the ABC are too fearful to ever get stuck into this useless government.
Doyley – Totally agree. If anything it is is a negative, because voters are wondering why the hell Turnbull is making jokes when he should be telling them how he will improve their lives.
martha farquahar @ #1031 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 11:26 am
How did you derive your straight line? Linear regression? That always yields a straight line.
PhoenixRed
It has never been a secret even to Law enforcement, that Trump business practices were corrupt and dodgy. Yet he is the current President of the USA. Mind boggling when you think about it.
trog sorrenson @ #1020 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 10:57 am
The data simply doesn’t support your assertion.
Bemused:
[There has always been media bias. It is no worse now than it has been in the past and there have been times in the past that it has been a whole lot worse.
Continually moaning about it achieves nothing.]
Surely that media bias needs to be “monitored” and understood. No?
And if it needs to be monitored surely that monitoring should be “continuous”. No?
And if media bias needs to be “continuously monitored” surely it is important to explain how and why the bias is distorting reality. No?
Sure, you can pejoratively call that continuous monitoring and explaining “continuous moaning” but whatever you call it surely it is important. No?
‘I really believe the MSM and other commentators hugely over estimate the average Australians interest in all this.’
Of course, they are arrogant and so cut off that they assume because they are interested…
Doyley
Some are a little pissed off that Oakes published it and got a ‘hit’ story?
windhover @ #1033 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 11:28 am
You and Trog obviously share an unusual definition of “exponential”.
‘There has always been media bias. It is no worse now than it has been in the past and there have been times in the past that it has been a whole lot worse.’
Impossible to prove either way, but totally beside the point anyway.
There is some talk of nationalising (or partly nationalising) energy production in SA.
And I read C@ts post earlier about the poor and renters not being able to install Solar PV.
There are leasing options for rooftop solar – but then I had a thought. Perhaps the energy posters out there may have an opinion on it….
The government buys and installs rooftop solar on suitable houses (poor or rich – with owners/tenants permission). A massive installation project. These rooftop Solar cells would act as a defacto government owned and run powerstation. The government is the owner of the solar power and they would be the ‘retailer’ for the household and the ‘wholesaler’ for the grid.
Yes? No? Go wait in the car while the adults talk?
victoria Friday, June 16, 2017 at 11:37 am
PhoenixRed
It has never been a secret even to Law enforcement, that Trump business practices were corrupt and dodgy. Yet he is the current President of the USA. Mind boggling when you think about it.
……………… and today ….. more evidence that the heat is going onto that sleazy SIL Kushner – he is going to regret the day he ever laid eyes on Trumps daughter …. Bannon must be leaking out little gems about arch enemy Kushner every now and then to keep the ball rolling
More Bad News For Jared Kushner as Mueller Follows the Money
Drip, drip, drip.
Special counsel Robert Mueller is reportedly now investigating the finances and business dealings of Jared Kushner, according to a report Thursday night from the Washington Post.
Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and a top White House advisor with a sprawling portfolio, is just one of many in Trump’s circle whom Mueller is investigating in his ongoing probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. The news comes just one day after the Post reported the special counsel is investigating President Trump for possible obstruction of justice.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/06/more-bad-news-for-jared-kushner/
martha farquahar @ #1031 Friday, June 16, 2017 at 11:26 am
Thanks, Martha. But I have to warn you that you are in for a world of pain if you dare to contradict the PB solar warriors.
Bemused,
Haha…by eye!
The value of R squared is 0.9961 if that helps!
phoenixRed
I suspect Kushner was already in the sights of Law enforcement quite some time ago. his own father was in jail for quite some time. Kushner obviously saw a like minded person in Trump. like sticks with like. Lol!
Pence has now engaged outside Counsel. Fingers crossed my initial thoughts about Pence hold and he doesnt get his hands on the Presidency.
If Labor wins government and can’t get by-partisan support for energy policy there may still be a gas-plant investment strike. In that situation, in desperation, wouldn’t the govt have to step in and build its own plant. Is that possible?