BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

As the weeks go by, so do the opinion polls.

The Coalition had relatively good numbers this week from Essential Research, but unchanged ones from Newspoll. The first of these is cancelled out by the fading impact of the Coalition’s improved result from the post-budget poll from Ipsos, so BludgerTrack once again goes nowhere this week. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have the net approval trends improving for Malcolm Turnbull but deteriorating for Bill Shorten, but the opposite is true on preferred prime minister, so take your pick really.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  2. Back to politics.

    The Adani PR stunt has fired a starting gun on a major Green campaign like the Franklin/Wesley Vale Campaign.

    Hopefully stopping private investment will support Federal Labor’s position of no taxpayers dollars. Thus no Adani.

    Its a pity that narrow donor money is driving this issue.

    More along with last nights 4Corners to restrict political donations and bring in a Federal ICAC.

  5. CT

    No if about it. It won’t take long for competition to do the same. The Autoplay blocker will arrive in Spring

  6. zoomster Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 3:06 pm
    Oh, geez, schucks guys…should I change my avatar??

    **********************************
    Actually – you might like this article, Zoomster : some interesting statistics on young girls

    ‘Wonder Woman’ soared to No. 1 at the perfect time for millions of teenage girls

    Wonder Woman is No. 1 at the U.S. box office and millions of teenage girls are getting the message of empowerment. The movie, experts say, could not have come a moment too soon.

    This is a positive message for girls. More than one-third of teenage girls experience depression, more than twice the rate of boys at that age, a new study that analyzed interviews with 100,000 children and published in the journal Translational Psychiatry concluded. Some 36% of girls either are depressed or experienced depression between the ages of 12 and 17, compared to just 13.6% of boys during the same period, the study found. These differences originate in childhood.

    MORE : http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wonder-woman-soared-to-no-1-at-the-perfect-time-for-millions-of-teenage-girls-2017-06-05

  8. I’d guess that Cory replied to ‘senior Liberal’ – “I don’t give a f#ck about that!”

    Cory Bernardi was warned by a senior Liberal that his criticism of Labor senator Sam Dastyari’s donations from Chinese government linked individuals might affect the Liberal party, given “we receive money from them too”.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/06/cory-bernardi-says-he-was-told-liberals-received-money-from-donors-with-links-to-china

  10. PhRD

    ‘Wonder Woman’ soared to No. 1 at the perfect time for millions of teenage girls

    Unless you happen to be Lebanese. They’ve banned it!

  12. I would never support Adani or any other mine with the unlimited resources that they receive from the government (including our most precious Water and Land), until the government has given us the same or better to the tax payers, then I will never vote for QLD Labor or NSW Labor ever again.

    The bullshit about protecting the reef or going renewable is bullshit, because the construction of the mine will happen first, not the other way around.

  13. Apparently NZ crowd flipping the bird to the US delegation over Trump.

    There are times I do really admire our Kiwi cousins across the ditch

  14. CTar1 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 3:30 pm
    PhRD
    “‘Wonder Woman’ soared to No. 1 at the perfect time for millions of teenage girls”
    Unless you happen to be Lebanese. They’ve banned it!

    *********************************
    Darn Tootin’ ….. can’t have some uppity woman in her underwear running around the world beating the shit out of all these crooks and enemies of the people – that’s us blokes job ….

  23. ratsak Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 4:08 pm
    I’d pay to see a movie where Wonder Woman beats 7 shades of shit out of Donald Trump

    ***************************************************
    I’d just be happy to see a couple of burly guys in FBI vests frog marching Trump in an orange prison suit to match his hair and in handcuffs out the WH front door and into the back of a black mariah wagon ….

    And scrawny Kellyanne Conway running behind yelling holding up a can ” Stop …. don’t forget Donnie’s hair spray – he wants to look the best for his cell mate Big Bubba ….

  25. My son’s friend saw, ‘King Arthur’ and said it was ‘Meh!’
    My son and his friend saw, ‘Wonder Woman’ yesterday and said that, while slow to get started, it picked up the pace pretty quickly and was very enjoyable.

  27. Tom Elliott was very critical this afternoon of Robb’s well paid new job – and rightly so IMO. Apparently Robb wasn’t very pleased about it and rang him to complain. Unfortunately I didn’t hear that conversation.

  29. Darn @ #1428 Tuesday, June 6th, 2017 – 5:25 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 5:14 pm
    Corbyn neutralises terror as an anti for Labour. perhaps, one day, we’ll see the same thing occur in Australia.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-police-cuts-calls-theresa-may-to-resign-london-bridge-terror-attack-general-election-a7773491.html

    I guess the next group of polls will tell us how successful he has been GG.

    Latest poll I saw says the margins down to 1%. I’ll have whatever Corbyn’s smoking!

  31. Greensborough Growler
    Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 5:30 pm
    Darn @ #1428 Tuesday, June 6th, 2017 – 5:25 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 5:14 pm
    Corbyn neutralises terror as an anti for Labour. perhaps, one day, we’ll see the same thing occur in Australia.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-police-cuts-calls-theresa-may-to-resign-london-bridge-terror-attack-general-election-a7773491.html

    I guess the next group of polls will tell us how successful he has been GG.

    Latest poll I saw says the margins down to 1%. I’ll have whatever Corbyn’s smoking!

    Yes I saw that too GG. I’m surprised we haven’t seen more of them given the election is now just three days away.

  32. Darn @ #1431 Tuesday, June 6th, 2017 – 5:49 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 5:30 pm
    Darn @ #1428 Tuesday, June 6th, 2017 – 5:25 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 5:14 pm
    Corbyn neutralises terror as an anti for Labour. perhaps, one day, we’ll see the same thing occur in Australia.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-police-cuts-calls-theresa-may-to-resign-london-bridge-terror-attack-general-election-a7773491.html

    I guess the next group of polls will tell us how successful he has been GG.

    Latest poll I saw says the margins down to 1%. I’ll have whatever Corbyn’s smoking!

    Yes I saw that too GG. I’m surprised we haven’t seen more of them given the election is now just three days away.

    Corbyn seems to have the “Big Mo”. But, whether it’s real, whether his people turn up and whether the polls have been kidding everyone is difficult to fathom.

  35. phoenixred @ #1414 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 3:38 pm

    CTar1 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 3:30 pm
    PhRD
    “‘Wonder Woman’ soared to No. 1 at the perfect time for millions of teenage girls”
    Unless you happen to be Lebanese. They’ve banned it!
    *********************************
    Darn Tootin’ ….. can’t have some uppity woman in her underwear running around the world beating the shit out of all these crooks and enemies of the people – that’s us blokes job ….

    Not sexism. Anti-semitism. The actress playing the lead is Israeli-born.

  37. When the press gallery members and their colleagues go around wringing their hands over how poor the standard of political discourse is in this nation, they could do no better than to read Massola’s article in Fairfax:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/youve-had-six-questions-bill-shorten-defends-sam-dastyaris-china-links-20170606-gwligo.html

    All about Bill and Sam – and particularly Bill’s irritation at the endless attempts at gotcha by some so-called journalist about Bill’s support for Sam. Buried away in the middle of the article is a passing reference to Bill Shorten’s attempts to ban foreign donations. No follow up with the government as to why they have no interest in closing off this gaping avenue of foreign influence. Personality trumps policy every time with these journo clowns.

  39. Good evening all,

    I notice a number of economists are getting a run re the minimum wage increase announced today.

    According to them the rise will destroy life as we know it and actually lead to more unemployment. Once again theoritical economists with little ability to even consider the real life lived experience of those struggling to support themselves let alone a family.

    When you then consider the reduction in penalty rates and the Turnbull policy of hitting them with a .5 % increase in the Medicare levy hundreds of thousands of low paid Aussie workers and families will continue to be screwed. The very workers and families the CPG thinks Shorten should ignore and wave through the Turnbull Medicare levy increase.

    Shorten has taken the right road on this and to all those who continue to accuse him of simply playing politics well, they can stick it where it hurts.

    Without Shorten and labor looking after them these low income workers and families wold be screwed.

    Cheers.

  40. TPOF,

    You have to remember that Fairfax and the ABC own this story and will work overtime to keep it going. It was always going to be a chance to hit labor.

    Cheers.

  45. darn @ #1427 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 5:19 pm

    Tom Elliott was very critical this afternoon of Robb’s well paid new job – and rightly so IMO. Apparently Robb wasn’t very pleased about it and rang him to complain. Unfortunately I didn’t hear that conversation.

    Rob and his ilk are mere compradores and should be treated as such.

  47. I accidentally caught a bit of “A Current Affair”. There was Victorian Opposition Leader Matthew Guy exploiting last night’s Brighton incident.

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