BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

As the weeks go by, so do the opinion polls.

The Coalition had relatively good numbers this week from Essential Research, but unchanged ones from Newspoll. The first of these is cancelled out by the fading impact of the Coalition’s improved result from the post-budget poll from Ipsos, so BludgerTrack once again goes nowhere this week. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have the net approval trends improving for Malcolm Turnbull but deteriorating for Bill Shorten, but the opposite is true on preferred prime minister, so take your pick really.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. victoria Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 10:28 am

    PhoenixRed

    Yep. And the NSA boss Mike Rogers is due to front up to senate committee in next few days

    ****************************************************

    NSA Director Mike Rogers poised to ‘drop a bomb’ on Trump admin during Wednesday testimony: MSNBC

    “While a lot of people have focused on James Comey and that’s obviously a huge anchor in this,” Clemons said at the end of the segment, “watch the Senate Intelligence Committee hearings on Wednesday. National Security Agency Director Mike Rogers may have a bomb to drop in this, as well as Dan Coates. I have been tipped off that Mike Rogers has a story to tell as well that goes right along the lines that our friend David Corn has shared.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/nsa-director-mike-rogers-poised-to-drop-a-bomb-on-trump-admin-during-wednesday-testimony-msnbc/

  4. ctar1 @ #1302 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 10:45 am

    Adrian – For some it’s all about debating skills rather than the subject itself.

    Not for me. For me it is mainly about the amount of misinformation that gets posted here.

    Let’s all hope that after the Finkel report is released on Friday, some of the more ‘excitable’ posters calm down a bit. Yes, I realize this is probably a vain hope … : )

  6. PhoenixRed

    Schindler wrote an article last week on Mike Rogers wtte that he had told staff that Trump colluded with the Ruskies. Although Schindler not too confident he will say much at hearing

    John Schindler @20committee

    Replying to @bonitarosekemp
    Just pointing out that people who want to present Rogers as The Great White Hope in #KremlinGate may be disappointed.

  9. victoria Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 10:58 am

    PhoenixRed

    Schindler wrote an article last week on Mike Rogers wtte that he had told staff that Trump colluded with the Ruskies. Although Schindler not too confident he will say much at hearing

    *****************************************
    The leaked NSA document may have been part of the “bomb” that Mike Rogers was going to bring up at his hearing Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday

    Leaked NSA Report Suggests Russian Hacking Could Have Affected Election Day Itself

    If nothing else, the leaked NSA report will amp up media interest in NSA director Mike Rogers’ appearance before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday, the day before former FBI director James Comey’s much-discussed testimony to the same committee. There has already been speculation that Rogers will drop a bombshell; the leaked report could be a preview, though it should be noted an NSA contractor — with unlikely name of Reality Leigh Winner — has already been arrested for what could well be a leak to The Intercept.

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/06/leaked-nsa-report-suggests-russia-could-have-hacked-election.html

  10. There’s more smoke than fire in the report, which mainly establishes that the Russians were making an effort to gain access to voter registration database information—though that’s a big deal given the impact of voter registration information on access to the ballot. But it also opened up the possibility the hackers got access to vote-counting machinery as well, particularly in states with electronic voting machines (which happen to include Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two of the three states that decided the presidential election).

  14. fess,
    As a Christian, he might be taking the ‘Stewardship of God’s gift of the Earth, to humans ‘ seriously. Or ‘Thou shall not Kill’ half the population of the planet. Or Don’t be an arsehole.

  15. I would like to see added resources in gun control. Anyone distributing a gun (by whatever means) unlawfully which is used in a crime is charged with accessory to that crime with a deeming presumption as to culpability.

  18. History shows us that the Hammock dweller made his name in the “Dollar Sweets case” and on the back of that into the liberal party and then did not have the B***s to oust the Lying Rodent, Teflon man had his “Spy Catcher case” moment and did have the B***s to stab his leader in the back but was pushed to do so. Question now is which legal case is going on that will see the rise of the next aspirant Liberal leader anyone ??.

  20. Adani’s CEO will announce today its controversial central Queensland coal mine has been given the go ahead, the state’s Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says.

    Ms Palaszczuk is in Townsville for the announcement and will sign contracts with Queensland businesses later today.

    “I’m very pleased to say Adani will be announcing the green light for their project,” she said.

    This is fucking disgraceful. So many people had so many opportunities to stop this idiocy.

    Ms Palaszczuk. It is not too late. Step in now and end this. Adani will shift the profits to the Caymans, shut down the mine before the royalties become due, and leave the taxpayer to remediate the site. When this happens, people will blame you, and you alone.

  22. VE

    Ms Palaszczuk. It is not too late. Step in now and end this. Adani will shift the profits to the Caymans, shut down the mine before the royalties become due, and leave the taxpayer to remediate the site. When this happens, people will blame you, and you alone.

    Exactly.

  23. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-06/nick-xenophon-to-run-candidates-against-three-independent-sa-mps/8592162

    Government transparency is set to become a key South Australian election issue with senator Nick Xenophon planning to run candidates against independent MPs who voted against public ICAC hearings.

    Labor and the crossbenchers last week blocked the Opposition’s bid to allow the Independent Commissioner Against Corruption, Bruce Lander, to hold open hearings into maladministration matters.

  26. Goodbye little finch. Coal is so good for you.

    The largest remaining stronghold for black-throated finches is within the Galilee Basin, a 500 km-long coal measure running from around Alpha to Hughenden.

    Within this area are the proposed Adani (Carmichael), Alpha, Kevin’s Corner, China First, China Stone and South Galilee coal mines. Collectively, these cover nearly 1,700 square km. Much of this area is proposed to be open cut. The Carmichael mine in particular covers the best “hotspot” known for black-throated finches. Were these mines to go ahead, the finches are likely to suffer steep declines.

    https://theconversation.com/queensland-coal-mines-will-push-threatened-finch-closer-to-extinction-55646

  27. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/06/medical-experts-say-lending-to-adani-is-the-same-as-supporting-big-tobacco

    Lending money to Indian mining giant Adani to build a rail line for the Carmichael coal project is akin to supporting big tobacco to transport hundreds of tonnes of tobacco to market, an eminent former surgeon and the chair of Doctors for the Environment Australia, Prof Kingsley Faulkner, said.

    :::
    He wrote that the Carmichael mine posed a “grave danger to public health both in Australia and globally”, given coalmines leading to a resurgence among mine workers of a chronic, irreversible and previously eradicated lung condition known as black lung disease.

    Coalition accused of letting infrastructure spending ‘fall off a cliff’ in budget

    The pollution from coal also causes childhood asthma, heart and lung disease, and some cancers, he added.

    “Going ahead with it will send a terrible message to the world – that we in Australia really don’t care about the planet, or its inhabitants,” Faulkner wrote.

    “Additionally, it will create an infrastructure for the potential development of up to eight other coalmines in the region.”

  28. lizzie @ #1321 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 11:31 am

    I thought the story is that the MSM is reporting wrongly. Now I’m as confused as Anna must be.

    The only hope left are the reports that Adani is in deep financial trouble but is still pursuing this because they desperately need to turn the mine into a salable asset. They will hopefully be unable to find a buyer, and the whole project will then collapse in due course.

    But this is a very dangerous course!

  30. Paul Keating‏ @PmPaulKeating · 23h23 hours ago
    #auspol
    Turnbull shows enormous foresight on combatting recruitment/incitement via the internet by providing 3rd world useless broadband

  31. I’ve heard that the lobbying outfit that employs ex-Liberal MPs after they leave parliament is called, ‘Liars For Hire’. 🙂

  32. http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/planning-minister-richard-wynne-rejected-planners-input-on-175b-crown-tower-20170605-gwkfdz.html

    Key advice from senior planners was ignored by Planning Minister Richard Wynne when he approved Crown casino’s new, $1.75 billion, 90-storey skyscraper, newly released papers reveal.

    Public servants told Mr Wynne that a rooftop viewing platform and a new shopping centre in the Yarra-side hotel and apartment tower were of benefit primarily to the gaming giant, not the Victorian public.

    But despite this advice, Mr Wynne sided with the casino giant – ruling that its $10 million shopping centre and $25 million rooftop viewing deck and nightclub “public realm” improvements.
    :::::
    The tower approved by Mr Wynne was deemed of state significance and bypassed the usual planning process for major projects.
    ::::

    A Melbourne City Council report found the decision to bypass normal planning rules allowed Crown to evade $60 million in fees that other developers have to pay.

  33. Also, I now have less faith in what Finkel is going to recommend on Friday. I now suspect it might simply be ‘full steam ahead’ (or perhaps ‘full smoke ahead’) for Clean Coal here in Australia, because very little (if any) of the Adani coal is ever going to go to India.

    Depressing : (

  35. From the latest ER:

    Queenslanders were more likely than other states to think that there was no trade-off between reef jobs and coal jobs (26%).

  36. Queenslanders were more likely than other states to think that there was no trade-off between reef jobs and coal jobs (26%).

    To be honest, they’re probably correct. The northern parts of the reef seemed doomed at current temperatures. Given the warming that’s already locked in, I doubt much of the reef will survive regardless of what happens with the mine.

  37. Good morning all,

    Bill Shorten and labor would be wasting their time arguing against the Adani mine progressing. They are not in government and have no power at all to stop the mine. It would a fight that may allow some to sleep better but it would be a waste of energy. All they could do is throw their arms around and jump up and down in a tantrum that would result in nothing. Pick your battles.

    Where Shorten and labor can fight is the issue of the $1 billion loan for the rail link. That is a issue that they could prosecute and one which will gain traction both in Queensland and across the country. Shorten has placed labor well on this issue and it is a issue that draws a strong line between federal labor and the coalition. Pick your battles and prosecute those that have a chance of being won.

    Cheers.

  39. Re: Adani, what I can’t understand is that there are coal mines in Australia with required infrastructure that are on care & maintenance and others operating at considerably less than their capacity. There are mines elsewhere in the world in the same position.

    Ignoring the environmental position, it makes absolutely no sense to me that anybody would take the financial risks of a mine in a location which is completely greenfields – no other mines, no transport infrastructure and not even a port. It’s not a rational risk.

    Someone(s), somewhere, are getting a massive payoff.

  40. I used to Arabian horse shows.

    The classic Arabian horse has a gait between a normal trot and a canter, called a ‘floating trot’. It’s a beautiful thing to watch, and it used to be basically a standard feature of the breed.

    Breeding directions changed in the late seventies. The ‘new look’ Arabians looked so beautiful standing still that those observing them wanted them to be the complete package.

    The ‘new look’ Arabians couldn’t ‘do’ the floating trot. But no one wanted to believe that.

    So I’ve sat at countless shows where the audience has been watching a horse being trotted out, waiting breathlessly for the moment when it would go from a normal trot into the floating one, only to have the horse break into a canter.

    “If only he hadn’t broken gait,” audience members would sigh. “We would have seen his floating trot!”

    So great was the mass delusion that it took me years to realise that the reason we weren’t seeing horses doing a floating trot was because they simply weren’t capable of it…but no one wanted to admit it.

    Some commentary here reminds me of that.

  42. PhoenixRed

    What a name indeed! You couldn’t make this stuff up!

    There are so many moving parts to this imbroglio. I am having trouble keeping up

  43. Doyley –

    Bill Shorten and labor would be wasting their time arguing against the Adani mine progressing. They are not in government

    Labor are in government in Queensland.

    Queensland Labor will be directly responsible if the Adani mine goes ahead, and they certainly have the power to stop it.

    Nothing about the Adani mine makes any sense. There’s either some massive corruption at the centre of it or it is all some ghastly commercial/political theatre.

  44. Just to balance out the Anti Palaczjsuk Government propaganda, I re-post this:

    Ajm
    Monday, June 5, 2017 at 1:44 pm
    Apologies for the length of this post but I thought Bludgers may be interested in the whole lot. It ias a reply from the Qld Environment Minister to an email I sent to him and a number of other ministers expressing concern about the Adani coal mine.
    If nothing else it shows the poverty of media reporting of these issues – without an email like this, even I would be unaware of many of the points made, even though I think I’ve been following the issue pretty closely for a long time:

    Thanks for contacting me about the Adani Carmichael mine project.

    In line with our election commitment, Adani will pay every cent of royalties owed to taxpayers.

    Adani will pay royalties to the state in every year of production, full royalties every year after year five, and interest on any royalties deferred.

    If they cease production any outstanding royalties will be due as a lump sum, guaranteed by a security of payment bond.

    The government will require the miner to rehabilitate progressively and full financial assurance for outstanding rehabilitation will also apply.

    The same arrangement will apply to any similar economic development proposals and will replace ad hoc deals negotiated behind closed doors by previous governments.
    Under this approach, there will be no special deals, no royalty holidays, no royalty rebates and no exemptions. The same approach will apply to all greenfield projects in these Basins and the North West Minerals Province.
    This approach provides certainty for the proponents and the Queensland taxpayer.

    All greenfield proponents will now be required, after the completion of comprehensive environmental impact assessments by State and Commonwealth agencies, to:
    · pay all royalties as per the rates set in the Mineral Resources Regulation 2013;
    · in recognition of the upfront capital costs of these projects, proponents will be eligible for a repayment plan, with all deferred payments to be subject to an interest rate charge;
    · maximum period for a payment plan will be 30 years;
    · following an agreement on a royalty payment plan, the proponent will undertake to start construction and operations within as specified period.
    · Require job-generating common-user infrastructure to support to development of these Basins and NWMP.

    In respect of funding under the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, we have been clear that under finance provided to Adani through this facility is a matter for the Federal Government. Queensland will fulfil our obligations in the Master Facility Agreement, but any project financing will need to flow directly from the Federal Government to Adani.

    This approach honours our election commitment and is in stark contrast to the reckless approach of the LNP, who wanted to provide $455 million to subsidise the construction of a rail line for the Carmichael Coal project and permit dredged spoil for the port expansion of the project to be dumped into the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park or Caley Valley wetlands.

    Meanwhile, the Palaszczuk Government will do our fair share to address climate change and protect the Great Barrier Reef. It’s why we’re on a path to get half our energy from solar and wind and why we’re spending more than $57 million a year on reef protection.

    The Palaszczuk Government’s signature climate change policy, a 50 per cent renewable energy target by 2030, will reduce Queensland’s own greenhouse gas emissions.

    And we will continue to advocate for a national emissions target in the range recommended by the independent Climate Change Authority of 40-50 per cent by 2030, best achieved through a national cap and trade scheme.

    The Palaszczuk Government is committed to reducing Queensland’s emissions in line with the Paris treaty and will announce soon our own climate transition strategy for our economy.

    The Palaszczuk Government is the first Queensland Government to promote the development of large-scale renewable energy projects, and to date, there are $2 billion in proposed projects with the potential for almost 2000 jobs. As part of our plan for 50% renewable energy by 2030, the Palaszczuk Government will undertake a reverse auction for up to 400MW of renewable capacity, to commence in the second half of 2017, including 100MW for energy storage prior to 2020

    And reiterate the fact that, if the LNP government were in power in Queensland now, none of this would happen.

  45. Had an interesting morning try to sort out problems created by bureaucracies.

    Firstly, the whole Centrelink putting me on a pension thing.

    When I was waiting for a hip replacement, I pointed out to Centrelink that there was little point me looking for work, as even if I got an interview, hobbling in on a cane and saying that I was facing a major operation sometime in the near future would make the whole process fairly worthless.

    I got a letter from my doctor, a cursory phone call from Centrelink, and (although I was kept on Newstart) not required to look for work, with the situation to be reviewed.

    In the meantime, my husband got work, and so I wasn’t eligible for Newstart payments, so the review never happened.

    Which apparently means that Centrelink thinks I’m still disabled.

    When I think about the stories you read (and I have no reason to doubt them) of people having to prove that the disability they were born with hasn’t gone away, this is pretty gobsmacking.

    Secondly, I received an email saying that I’m finally eligible to teach in NSW, but I have to do an on line unit first. No problems, happy to.

    Sat down to do it last night. None of the links provided worked. Rang NSW DET. Apparently I’m not on the system, despite the email. Had to then ring someone else, to get me put on the system. Still waiting for a response.

    In both cases, I have followed every rule and instruction given to me faithfully and honestly.

    Goodness knows how many hours are wasted because of situations such as these.

  46. Jackol,

    I live in Queensland and the decision to support the Adani mine and the rail link loan is one for the government of Queensland to make. Yes, it is a labor government and the labor government will wear the consequences good or bad. There is absolutely nothing Bill Shorten and federal labor can do to stop the process re the mine actually going ahead.

    Shorten is the opposition leader not the PM and federal labor is not in government so at a federal level he has absolutely no control over the process at all.

    Where Shorten and labor can fight with some purpose is opposing the $1 billion loan. That is a fight that Shorten and labor should take on and prosecute strongly. They will do that and Shorten had already laid the ground work for that fight.

    We need to acknowledge that state and federal labor are two different beasts in this battle. The state labor government has made its decision and Shorten has decided that federal labor will take a different course on the loan given it has no control over the mine approval process. The loan battle is one which federal labor may well be able to win at the federal level.

    Cheers.

  47. BTW,

    We all need to remember that Mr. Adani is as cunning as a rat. Announcing that the mine will go ahead is a lot different to actually digging the first earthworks. No finance has yet been approved and this announcement could well be a play for the $1 billion loan as well as a play to bankers and financiers who may still be hesitant to invest.

    The mine may well actually start but at the moment it is still all theatre from Adani.

    Cheers.

  48. Aha! It is my lack of Internet Explorer (because my nephew, who programmed my new computer, hates it) which is causing me problems with the NSW Department…

  49. B.C.

    May seems to be having some trouble giving a straight answer:

    FMD.

    But Trezza avoids everything else so more same, same.

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