BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

As the weeks go by, so do the opinion polls.

The Coalition had relatively good numbers this week from Essential Research, but unchanged ones from Newspoll. The first of these is cancelled out by the fading impact of the Coalition’s improved result from the post-budget poll from Ipsos, so BludgerTrack once again goes nowhere this week. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have the net approval trends improving for Malcolm Turnbull but deteriorating for Bill Shorten, but the opposite is true on preferred prime minister, so take your pick really.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. player one @ #1100 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 8:05 pm

    don @ #1083 Monday, June 5, 2017 at 7:28 pm

    In absolute figures, it got to 806,968,301 MWh in 2010, and in 2016 it was 805,327,221 MWh.

    We’ve already discussed this one – e.g. see my post #982. Just like the rest of the world, nuclear generation took a dive in 2011 immediately following Fukushima, and has been rising again every year ever since. In fact, as you pointed out, it has very nearly risen back to it’s highest ever levels, and will probably exceed them next year, with 5 new nuclear plants under construction in the US.
    There is no way you could call this a ‘decline’.

    Would it be so hard for you to say ‘ you were right, I was wrong about US electricity being on the increase?’

    Thought so.

    Bait and switch is what you do, time after time after time.

    I caught you out badly, and you don’t have the decency to admit it.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Essential now has it at 52/48.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/06/voters-care-more-about-power-prices-than-emissions-guardian-essential-poll
    The problem of home grown terrorism in the UK.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/salman-abedis-path-to-jihadism-in-manchester-began-in-libya-and-ended-bloodily-in-britain-20170529-gwfxix.html
    Idiot Trump has another Twitter dip at the Mayor of London.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-lashes-out-at-london-mayor-sadiq-khan-in-twitter-tirade-20170605-gwl2y2.html
    The UK Guardian has gone so far as to call for the rescinding of the invitation to Trump to visit the UK. It says that Theresa May has been too quick to dodge public confrontation with Donald Trump, and she’s sidestepped the difficult questions on whether police cuts have undermined national security.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/05/the-guardian-view-on-trumps-state-visit-to-the-uk-his-invitation-should-be-rescinded
    Mark Kenny on “teenage Trump”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/donald-trumps-emotional-bluster-cuts-through-the-word-cloud-of-platitudes-20170605-gwkk02.html
    Paul Mc Geough asks whether Trump can be blamed for the two deaths in the name of “fee speech” in Portland.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/two-murdered-in-the-name-of-free-speech-can-donald-trump-be-blamed-20170605-gwkkka.html
    Meanwhile our own Cory Bernardi is ramping up the Islam rhetoric.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cory-bernardi-says-we-need-to-talk-about-islam-insults-muslims-with-offensive-graphic-20170605-gwkt71.html
    IS has just claimed it was behind the Melbourne murder and siege.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/vic/2017/06/05/man-dead-hostage-melbourne-brighton/
    Theresa May’s “tough” line might be backfiring on her.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/london-terror-police-hope-to-charge-attackers-accomplices-20170605-gwkx1p.html

  3. Section 2 . . .

    Another multiple shooting in the US. Has Trump tweeted on it yet?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/multiple-fatalities-in-florida-shooting-sheriff-says-20170605-gwl2k6.html
    Peter Beattie writes that Pauline Hanson is just another politician.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/06/05/pauline-hanson-scandal-peter-beattie/
    Peter Martin looks at the continued growing disparity between profits and wages.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/company-profits-rise-per-cent-in-march-quarter-20170605-gwkl4k.html
    “Spoilsport” Greg Jericho opines that on Wednesday, the March GDP figures will mark 103 quarters without Australia’s GDP falling in two consecutive quarters. But we should not get too excited about this length of time without a “technical recession”. Not only is such a definition of a recession meaningless, the real focus should be that Australia’s economy is growing far too slowly to generate well-paying jobs.
    \https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/jun/06/if-you-want-to-get-technical-recession-records-are-nothing-to-brag-about
    Hopes that political rorts might be curbed by a chastened PM after last year’s narrow election win have been dashed. Alan Austin updates the tawdry Coalition record.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/coalition-corruption-thrives-under-turnbull-no-shame-whatsoever,10365
    Abbott has been saying that Islamophobia has killed nobody. He’s wrong says Josh Butler.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/06/05/tony-abbott-says-islamophobia-hasnt-killed-anyone-hes-wrong_a_22125659/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    New accounting standards are shedding unwanted light on many conglomerate companies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/retail-food-group–retailer-behind-gloria-jeans-donut-king-and-crust-pizza–sees-shares-dumped-20170605-gwkjot.html
    Andrew Street says that Turnbull’s carbon capture plan has one big problem.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/malcolm-turnbulls-carbon-capture-plan-has-one-big-problem-20170605-gwkfiv.html
    Michaela Whitbourn was in court yesterday to see Eddie Obeid’s latest vain attempt to get out of jail.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/no-duty-to-act-in-public-interest-eddie-obeids-lawyers-tell-court-20170605-gwkia6.html

  4. Section . . . 3

    In an interesting editorial the SMH indicates how terrorism has transformed the UK election into a defiant stand in defence of democracy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/terror-transforms-british-election-into-a-defiant-stand-in-defence-of-democracy-20170605-gwkk55.html
    Troy Bramston writes on the woeful campaign by the Tories. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/troy-bramston/uk-election-thatcher-legacy-is-ditched-as-bygone-battles-resurface/news-story/51b70e16b3c8fc7b7dbe51a08e95c2a5
    The US has vowed there will be no escape for Australian foreign fighters from the battlefields of Syria and Iraq under its new approach of hemming in the Islamic State terror group and killing its fighters, known as “annihilation”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-foreign-fighters-will-have-no-escape-from-islamic-state-heartland-us-vows-20170605-gwkrm5.html
    James Massola tells us how Frydenberg has hit the phones to the Coalition backbench to calm growing concerns about the federal government’s climate change review, and to stress the need for Australia to remain in the Paris agreement. He names the six ratbag MPs.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/josh-frydenberg-hits-the-phones-to-keep-government-mps-in-line-over-climate-paris-deal-20170605-gwkm4e.html
    At fiery and, at times, personal Senate hearings, Catholic education authorities also opened up a new front in the school funding debate by warning the Turnbull government’s changes could lead city dioceses to break away and form their own systems so they don’t have to send money to schools in poorer regional areas. Matthew Knott reports.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/for-the-common-good-catholic-sector-defends-funnelling-money-between-schools-20170605-gwkonm.html
    Andrew Robb walked straight out of Parliament last year and into an $880,000-a-year job with a billionaire closely aligned to the Chinese Communist Party and its key trade policy. A bit smelly?
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/investigations/liberal-andrew-robb-took-880k-china-job-as-soon-as-he-left-parliament-20170602-gwje3e.html
    Are major sporting events about to disappear from free to air TV?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/sport-focus/2017/06/05/sport-events-watch-free-air-tv/
    Revealing the secret identifies behind shell companies and opaque trusts is the “new frontier” in fighting tax evasion, says the OECD’s head of tax Pascal Saint-Amans. It should be a no-brainer!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/ending-secret-identities-is-the-new-frontier-in-fighting-tax-evasion-oecds-head-of-tax-pascal-saintamans-20170605-gwko4p.html
    The great property liquidation by embattled mining magnate-turned politician Clive Palmer is well under way. Google.
    /business/property/clive-palmer-portfolio-hits-the-block/news-story/b14962eab81b98b8330d760984dbbc76

  5. Section 5 . . .

    A Queensland judge has found comments made by the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, about Clive Palmer and the demise of Queensland Nickel “could well be viewed” as a suggestion the mining magnate had acted fraudulently. This could play out interestingly!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/05/malcolm-turnbulls-remarks-about-clive-palmer-could-have-implied-fraud-judge-finds
    This professor explains the paradox of public housing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/the-public-housing-paradox-by-helping-only-the-neediest-we-undermine-the-entire-system-20170530-gwgoza.html
    Australia’s consumer watchdog carried out a sting operation against Apple which it says caught staff repeatedly misleading iPhone customers about their legal rights to a free repair or replacement after a so-called “error 53” malfunction, court documents reveal.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jun/05/apple-error-53-sting-operation-caught-staff-misleading-customers-court-documents-allege

  6. Section 4a . . .

    Labor and The Greens are demanding greater transparency over the $5b Northern Australia Infrastructure Fund. Surely we can trust Canavan!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-greens-demand-more-transparency-over-multibillion-fund-20170605-gwkr3i.html\
    There’s trouble at the CPA and ASIC should do something about it. Google.
    /business/accounting/asic-examines-cpa-accounts-20170605-gwko5i
    Macron will have his work cut out to keep the lid on the rage that has been building up within France.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/audacious-macron-must-succeed-lest-french-rage-tear-the-republic-apart-20170531-gwhcts.html
    This former senior public servant says that when Australian leaders speak about tax, their words tend to be utter tosh and tells us why.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/our-impoverished-debate-on-the-bank-levy-and-on-tax-in-general-20170602-gwj81p.html
    Are we spending for spending’s sake on defence?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/david-johnstons-last-laugh-defence-policy-is-now-about-spending-for-spendings-sake-20170605-gwkjtf.html

  7. Section 4b . . .

    How will Australia’s new Ombudsman, somewhat controversially appointed, turn out?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/will-michael-manthorpe-be-the-commonwealth-ombudsman-the-government-needs-or-the-one-it-wants-20170601-gwi2uk.html
    Oh dear! An SAS trooper’s secret evidence criticising the military’s torture resistance program has been mistakenly distributed to civilian organisations and the defence department.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jun/06/sas-soldiers-secret-senate-evidence-on-torture-resistance-accidentally-released
    Jenna Price is pissed off with people “going commando” with their mobile devices.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/please-wear-headphones-we-dont-need-to-hear-every-one-of-your-life-moments-20170605-gwkqqb.html
    What’s going on here? Victorian Liberal Party president Michael Kroger has hired prominent barrister Robert Richter and other Queens Counsel to potentially sue the Cormack Foundation, a fund that is the party’s primary funder. Google.
    /news/politics/michael-kroger-hires-qcs-to-get-75m-from-liberal-donor-20170601-gwi7i6

  8. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 1

    Alan Moir and the stoicism of the British.

    Another dig at Dutton from Cathy Wilcox.

    Mark David on Turnbull’s “strident” comments about Trump pulling out of the Paris accord.

    Broelman on the London Bridge attack.

    And Trump has the GALL to use the London attack to defend guns! Look at the trajectories of these measures.

  9. Section 7 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    In a shop in the Barossa Valley.

    David Rowe does not hold back with his latest Trump imagery.

    Ron Tandberg contrasts Bronny and Pauline.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Have a look at what David Pope has done to Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Mark Knight cuts to the chase on Turnbull’s terrorism remarks.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/040e7f7f226d4a08d8abe60ab9872c59?width=1024
    Pat Clements on Pauline Hanson. Ouch!
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b7bb83d099485399ced68edc84137a89

  10. Morning all and thanks BK for a bumper edition. I love today’s Rowe! His Trumps are getting more and more grotesque with every cartoon.

  11. Chinese strategists predicted that the countries of the region would have a three-stage reaction to its expansion into the South China Sea. Initial resistance would give way to accommodation. Reconciliation on China’s terms would follow.

    Where are we up to now? Mohan Malik says that the Asia-Pacific region has now entered the second phase – accommodation. The Philippines, the country that brought the case against China to The Hague, has since capitulated. Malaysia, another rival claimant, seems to have acquiesced, too. Unless a posse does indeed emerge, China has defied the rules with impunity. A rules-based order? Clap if you believe.

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/china-has-defied-the-rules-with-impunity-20170605-gwkphb.html

  12. Thanks, BK!

    Mark Knight is spot on today, to be sure.

    As in, alleged terrorism incident in Brighton, Melbourne last night. On Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. Turnbull hasn’t prevented these things occurring and more or less than a Labor government.

  13. Grimace

    ‘That’s because you’re a VIP, any problem related to your case is a migraine waiting for a victim.’

    I’ve long said that my Centrelink and similar files should have emblazoned across them “Do not mess with this woman” but have had too many bad experiences to believe they have that much sense of self preservation!

  14. BK
    Re “IS has just claimed it was behind the Melbourne murder and siege”. I doubt they had much/anything to do with it as the guy rang channel 7 and said it was “for IS and Al Qaeda” and those two groups do not like each other at all.

  15. frednk – I once had one IT guy ‘interrupt’ power supply to one of my Unix servers by tripping over while dusting. He landed on the cables coming out of the back of the server …

    (The server was running an Oracle database and it was at peak transaction time of the day. It was a mess to restore!)

  16. So far it has been reported that this guy was involved in the terror plot to blow up The Army barracks in NSW. Has also been in prison for other violent crimes. And in a not so surpising aspect, an Ice Addict. Sigh

  17. poroti @ #1218 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 8:11 am

    BK
    Re “IS has just claimed it was behind the Melbourne murder and siege”. I doubt they had much/anything to do with it as the guy rang channel 7 and said it was “for IS and Al Qaeda” and those two groups do not like each other at all.

    To quote Deming, “There’s no such thing as a fact if it’s only what somebody reported”.

  18. CTar1

    In the early days of personal computers in schools, I worked out how I could write my reports on computer and then print them off on to the report forms.

    Feeling immeasurably chuffed with myself, I sat down in the staffroom and wrote something like fifty reports.

    A friend sat down beside me to see what I was doing, and kicked out the power lead to the computer…

    I think it took me half an hour before I was able to speak again.

  19. Events have a way of catching up to idiots very quick these days.
    One of Trump’s more stupid tweets referred to guns not being used in terror incident. Very next day half a dozen people shot at office in Florida.
    @facepalm@

  20. ‘”Two of the policy principles on which he compromised to buy the leadership were swallowing his pride on Direct Action, and on the plebiscite for same-sex marriage plebiscite. If he goes back on either, this would cause major concerns in the party room.”‘

    Did we actually know this before, or was it just something we worked out must have been so from Malcolm’s behaviour?

    You’d think that the CPG would make more of comments like this – surely the deals a PM did to get the position are important in understanding not only the reasons for current decision making but the nature of the person.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/josh-frydenberg-hits-the-phones-to-keep-government-mps-in-line-over-climate-paris-deal-20170605-gwkm4e.html

  21. Islamic State has claimed responsibility for Monday’s incident, that left an employee of the Brighton serviced apartments where the siege occurred dead.

    Police have confirmed the gunman was Yacqub Khayre, who was killed in a shootout with police.

    ‘The attack in Melbourne, Australia was carried out by a soldier of the Islamic State in response to the call for targeting the subjects of the coalition states,’ the group’s Amaq news agency said.

    IS blamed the attack on Australia’s membership in the US-led coalition against the militant group.

    Mr Ashton said Khayre had been linked to the Holsworthy army barracks terror plot in 2009.

    He had taken a prostitute hostage and forced her to ring the Seven Network’s Melbourne newsroom on Monday afternoon.

    She said she was in a hostage situation before man came on the line saying ‘This is for IS, this is for al-Qaeda’.

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2017/06/06/police-probe-melbourne-siege-terror-link.html#sthash.xhYcU1XI.dpuf

  22. ‘Deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce, a climate change sceptic….’

    I didn’t think this was true any more – again, an issue which (under someone like Gillard) would have occupied the media for days.

  23. We had a problem where all of our critical systems failed because they were on a UPS, as it failed. Other systems were unaffected.

  24. zoomster @ #1217 Tuesday, June 6, 2017 at 8:05 am

    Grimace
    ‘That’s because you’re a VIP, any problem related to your case is a migraine waiting for a victim.’
    I’ve long said that my Centrelink and similar files should have emblazoned across them “Do not mess with this woman” but have had too many bad experiences to believe they have that much sense of self preservation!

    They mostly do. Anytime they don’t has more to do with incompetence as a result of having staff turnover rates so high they would make the average fast food outlet manager blush with shame.

    One particular client at my wife’s office got himself onto the VIP list by directing his feedback about the quality of service he received via his local MP.

  25. Four corners last night was interesting. As per BK link above re Andrew Robb and his new role immediately resigning as MP, was reported on the show.
    I recall at the time, something being mentioned as to a conflict of Robb being Trade minister, negotiating the China agreement, and then he leaving parliament to take this role. Frankly it smells.

  26. AshGhebranious‏ @AshGhebranious · 11h11 hours ago

    It appears the China Free Trade agreement Andrew Robb negotiated benefited Andrew Robb. And his party let him profit. Corrupt as #auspol

  27. Good grief! And she thinks gay people in relationships are a danger to children!

    As Ms. Court, a tennis superstar who holds the record for the most singles titles in the sport, took the pulpit, she set aside her prepared message, saying she had “a word from the Spirit.” She led the audience in speaking in tongues — what she calls a language only God understands — for several minutes.

    “It is like picking up the phone to God,” she told the congregants at the Pentecostal church. “The Devil doesn’t understand it, man doesn’t understand it, but God understands it.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/05/world/australia/margaret-court-same-sex-marriage.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

  28. The outcome of 4C report should be that donations from foreigners are banned.
    Can’t see that happening, even though I believe USA has that principle.

  29. I see that Donald Trump has not challenged Sadiq Khan to an EQ test. He knows he would fail miserably.

    And speaking of Donald Trump and Sadiq Khan, it occurred to me that, and in a development that would be surprising to approximately no one, Donald Trump, politician, is using many of the tropes that Donald Trump, Reality TV Producer, employed, to varying degrees of success.

    In this particular instance he is trying to turn Sadiq Khan into the resident ‘Villain’ of his pathetic attempts to ‘Other’ Muslims. Every Reality TV series since ‘Survivor’ burst onto our screens has scripted someone to act as the focus of the audience’s ire, to gin their intestinal juices up and keep them watching. Otherwise there wouldn’t be the tension created to propel the show forward.

    So we observe Trump trying to do this when painting the Muslim community with a very broad dirty brush. Maybe simply in his tiny mind to give his Presidency some sort of focal point for his supporters to grab onto and create the momentum to keep his Presidency one step away from completely crashing and burning, because it maintains the support of the White Working Class Base he so relies on.

    He is also doing it with the Mainstream Media.

    Actually, now that I think about it, literature of one form or another has always scripted a villain, hasn’t it? Trump is just updating it from the Reality TV genre and over into the way he ‘governs’.

  30. Corbyn got 10,000 to a rally in Gateshead in the pouring rain.

    Because he held a rally in the pouring rain. That’s how committed he is. That’s the real message people ‘get’.

  31. Antonbruckner11

    Lizzie – we’re the only country in the world that doesn’t ban foreign donations.

    Then how unsophisticated are we? Not fit to play in the big boys’ yard.

  32. Robb is getting $880,000 a year from just one Chinese billionaire.

    Which would cover a LOT more legal advice than Sam Dastyari could ever hope to afford, should Robb need it.

  33. Good morning all,

    Labor has legislation in Parliament to ban foreign donations, reduce the amount to $1000 for doners to be named and real time donation reporting.

    The legislation was introduced by Bill Shorten earlier this year. The government continues to fart arse around.

    Cheers.

  34. Trump’s Worst Nightmare Comes True As CBS Will Air James Comey’s Testimony Live

    CBS has announced that they will be airing James Comey’s testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee live on broadcast television, which means that the Russia scandal has grown from cable news to full-scale broadcast network television.

    The notion that the Russia scandal is fodder for the left has been put to rest as more and more mainstream outlets realized that there is a real story or several stories in the Russia scandal. The White House won’t take the news well, but the decision by CBS is a sure sign that the scandal has grown in stature and significance. It wouldn’t be surprising if ABC and NBC also decide to carry Comey’s testimony live.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/06/05/trumps-worst-nightmare-true-cbs-air-james-comeys-testimony-live.html

  35. Top US diplomat in China quits over Trump climate policy

    David Rank, the chargé d’affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, has left the State Department over the Trump administration’s decision to quit the 2015 Paris agreement to fight climate change, a senior U.S. official said on Monday.

    A State Department spokeswoman confirmed Rank’s departure, but said she was unable to verify Twitter posts that said he resigned as he felt unable to deliver a formal notification to China of the U.S. decision last week to quit the agreement.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/top-us-diplomat-in-china-quits-over-trump-climate-policy/

  36. Olbermann apologizes to UK: ‘Trump is not of sound mind, we are working to correct the problem’

    In the latest segment of GQ’s “The Resistance,” host Keith Olbermann apologized to the United Kingdom for President Donald Trump’s divisive reactions to the recent London terrorist attacks.

    “Amid all the he creates — mass confusion, charges of corruption, hints at collusion, there is a stark reality. In almost any other job in this country, assuredly in any other private sector job…Donald Trump would have been fired by now,” Olbermann argued.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/olbermann-apologizes-to-uk-trump-is-not-of-sound-mind-we-are-working-to-correct-the-problem/

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