Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A better result for the Coalition from Essential Research this week brings the pollster back into line with the 53-47 consensus.

As I should have reported yesterday, this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has ticked in favour of the Coalition, who gain a point on the primary vote at the expense of Labor to lead 38% to 36%, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, as the Greens rise a point to 11% and One Nation falls one to 5%. Most of the supplementary questions this week are less clearly framed than they might be, but a question on the Trans-Pacific Partnership suggests respondents are less inclined to think it stacked in favour of big business than they were when the United States was on board. Another question repeats an exercise from October last year in gauging opinion on major policy decisions of recent decades, finding overwhelming support for compulsory superannuation and Medicare, pluralities in favour of the GST, free trade agreements, floating of the dollar and reducing car manufacturing subsidies, and better-than-usual responses to privatisation, breaking in favour of Qantas and against Telstra and the Commonwealth Bank.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

884 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Apart from their blatant stupidity, the neo-liberals like to ignore the following…. that the City almost drove Britain into oblivion in 2008, and have since received many billions in taxpayer funded bailouts. Most of these taxpayer’s funds went towards paying the Chaps bonuses, not back into the economy.

    That all happened under the “centrist” government of war criminal Tony Blair.

  2. Dan

    ‘That all happened under the “centrist” government of war criminal Tony Blair.’

    Well, not if you’re referring to events post-2007… (your post is a bit ambiguous…)

  3. boerwar @ #797 Friday, June 2, 2017 at 8:45 pm

    Far from austerity, Cameron and May have desperately pumped around 50 billion quid of public monies into trying to artificiaaly stimulate the UK economy.
    Of course neither the far right nor the far left Brexiteers get it…
    …there is a massive private capital strike happening in the UK…

    Good fucking grief. They have ripped the guts out of the NHS, schools and social programs while granting tax cuts to the wealthy and corporates.

    I can now see why you and your cephalopod alter-ego were campaigning for Turnbull’s mob last election. You equate taking billions from the have-nots and giving it the have-plenties as “economic stimulus”.

    Of course there’s a capital strike going on. Why should anyone invest (ie risk) their capital when they can get risk free handouts from the neo-liberals for nothing.

  4. This is such an interesting time and so much to discuss, and this forum is an excellent meeting place for exchange of information.
    Which is why I am puzzled by why so many people on this site waste their and everybody else’s time by engaging with P1. She/he has demonstrated over and over and over and over again that she/he share a lot of the same personality and rationality traits as Senator Roberts.
    It is easy enough to just skip all the P1 posts but it makes me want take a break from this forum when so many have the same old back and forth with P1, why bother? You all know that logic and reason are not going to get anywhere, just ignore P1 and this site will go back to being a forum for interesting information exchange and rational people

  5. dovey @ #809 Friday, June 2, 2017 at 9:05 pm

    Which is why I am puzzled by why so many people on this site waste their and everybody else’s time by engaging with P1. She/he has demonstrated over and over and over and over again that she/he share a lot of the same personality and rationality traits as Senator Roberts.

    What is it with you people and your gratuitous insults? How about trying to win an argument with logic and reason instead? Ok, I accept that might be difficult unless you are willing to at least learn a little about the subject, but you could at least try!

  6. Almost Advance Australia unFair

    Verse 1
    Australians all let us rejoice,
    For we are young and free; (aside: Unless you’re a young Aboriginal.)
    We’ve golden soil and wealth for spoil;
    Our home is girt by sea;
    Our land abounds in nature’s gifts
    Of beauty rich and rare;
    In history’s page, let every stage
    Advance Australia Fair.
    In joyful strains then let us sing,
    Advance Australia Fair.

    Verse 2
    Beneath our radiant Southern Cross
    We’ll spoil with pick and shovel;
    We’ll give this Commonwealth away
    To rich without trouble;
    For those who’ve come across the seas
    We don’t give a toss
    Unless you’re white and Christian
    You’re journey is a loss
    In joyful strains then let us sing,
    Advance Australia Fair.

    Apologies to the original lyricist and anyone who takes this sh!t seriously.

  7. Raaraa:

    If you are here, British Columbia finally has a government. New Democratic Party – Green minority government with one seat to spare. Joint agreement includes ban on corporate, union and outside BC donations as well as committing to a referendum on changing the voting system in 2018.

  8. As originally published, Advance Australia Fair had four verses. The first was basically the verse we still have, now rendered gender neutral. The second said Cook raised “Old England’s” flag here (St Georges Cross?) and “Britannia still rules the waves”. That has since had to be dropped because of changes in political geography.

    The third place says the descendants of English, with the help of those of Scots and Irish, will create a shining Southern star with will make all those bloody foreigners jealous. And finally, the last verse says that if any of those said foreigners arrive with hostile intent, they’ll get their areses seriously kicked.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advance_Australia_Fair#Development_of_lyrics

  9. Steve777

    The full kiwi national anthem reads pretty darn hippy kumbaya.

    God of Nations at Thy feet,
    In the bonds of love we meet,
    Hear our voices, we entreat,
    God defend our free land.
    Guard Pacific’s triple star
    From the shafts of strife and war,
    Make her praises heard afar,
    God defend New Zealand.
    2
    Men of every creed and race,
    Gather here before Thy face,
    Asking Thee to bless this place,
    God defend our free land.
    From dissension, envy, hate,
    And corruption guard our state,
    Make our country good and great,
    God defend New Zealand.
    3
    Peace, not war, shall be our boast,
    But, should foes assail our coast,
    Make us then a mighty host,
    God defend our free land.
    Lord of battles in Thy might,
    Put our enemies to flight,
    Let our cause be just and right,
    God defend New Zealand.
    4
    Let our love for Thee increase,
    May Thy blessings never cease,
    Give us plenty, give us peace,
    God defend our free land.
    From dishonour and from shame,
    Guard our country’s spotless name,
    Crown her with immortal fame,
    God defend New Zealand.
    5
    May our mountains ever be
    Freedom’s ramparts on the sea,
    Make us faithful unto Thee,
    God defend our free land.
    Guide her in the nations’ van,
    Preaching love and truth to man,
    Working out Thy glorious plan,
    God defend New Zealand.

  10. Which is why I am puzzled by why so many people on this site waste their and everybody else’s time by engaging with P1.

    Well I can’t speak for everyone else, but I’ve only ever found P1 to be benign and reasonable.

  11. A bit of thought and reflection required on that post, Davidwh …
    What does it say about the least abused poster here – you?

  12. Boerwar
    Friday, June 2, 2017 at 8:41 pm
    Apart from their rather nasty xenophobia the far left Brexiteers like to ignore the following…that pre-Brexit City pays 65 billion quid in taxes a year.
    Most of this will migrate into the EU.

    i think Beorwar is obsessed with reds under the bed.. I assume he/she will soon get a knighthood or peerage for services to general right-wing bastardry

  13. I am a wee bit partial to this:

    Oh Flower Of Scotland,
    When will we see, your like again
    That fought and died for
    Yer wee bit hill and glen
    And stood against him
    Proud Edward’s army
    And sent him homeward
    Tae think again
    The hills are bare now
    And autumn leaves lie thick and still
    For land that is lost now
    Which those so dearly held
    And stood against him
    Proud Edward’s army
    And sent him homeward
    Tae think again
    Those days are past now
    And in the past, they must remain
    But we can still rise now
    And be the nation again
    That stood against him
    Proud Edward’s Army
    And sent him homeward
    Tae think again
    The hills are bare now
    And autumn leaves lie thick and still
    For land that is lost now
    Which those so dearly held
    Oh Flower Of Scotland
    When will we see
    Yer like again
    That fought and died for
    Yer wee bit hill and glen
    And stood against him
    Proud Edward’s Army
    And sent him homeward
    Tae think again

  14. Anyone watching Turnbull speech, im a bit confused about the fish sizes…

    Are we the middle fish, the little fish or the shrimp ?
    Who is the big fishes, he didnt mention them, or the crayfish…

  15. P1,
    What is it with you people and your gratuitous insults? How about trying to win an argument with logic and reason instead?
    I only say this watching from the cheap seats, but sometimes it seems like arguing with smoke. Or is that gas? 🙂

  16. Norwester:

    The one issue Arnie can claim the high moral ground on from his gubernatorial term is addressing the reduction of GHGEs.

  17. Confessions…. haha

    yes, its all about Proud Edward (an enemy king from a country to the west of France).

    i don’t think it is suitable as a Scottish National Anthem …. but it is popular.

  18. [Well I can’t speak for everyone else, but I’ve only ever found P1 to be benign and reasonable.]

    On energy, P1 has been largely right for few months. The rest – Trog in particular – have also been largely correct for the last few months.

    Problem is they are talking about different things, and don’t seem to get it…

  19. confessions @ #840 Friday, June 2, 2017 at 10:40 pm

    Norwester:
    The one issue Arnie can claim the high moral ground on from his gubernatorial term is addressing the reduction of GHGEs.

    I like the emphasis he placed on the word *boomed* when he described how the California economy had performed since those initiatives.

  20. Col. Chris Hadfield
    17 mins ·
    ‪Ignoring our changing climate is like sticking fingers in our ears & yelling “La La La” while the problem grows. We have just one, shared world.‬

    I still love Macron’s ‘let’s make our planet great again’ response. But Chris Hadfield’s will suffice.

  21. On the anthem, Labor used a very smart slogan during campaigning for 2016 election. That being “Advance Australia”.

    I liked the way it demanded the reader to immediately conjure ‘fair’ in their own mind. A nice piece of subliminal marketing.

  22. LU:

    I have not engaged in the electricity wars, so cannot comment. My observation from scrolling by however, is that P1 does cop a lot of flak, some of which has been totally OTT and unnecessary.

  23. Fess,
    Yep, I’ve opted out of it all recently, although that’s mainly by necessity. From what I see, P1’s talking about what to do over the next 0-5 years with the tech that’s proven and available now, while most of the others are arguing about what to do over the next 3-15 years, based on tech that is in various states of maturity. There’s a remarkable amount of overlap in those plans, and a large amount of uncertainty in any plans for the latter.

    For example, the comment P1 made about being able to swap gas for coal tomorrow, or maybe next week, if the prices were right, is spot on. We have excess gas generation capacity in the NEM, so if it can be dispatched at below the marginal cost of coal, then part of the job of reducing emissions is done. This is something that can be achieved by the stroke of a pen; without going through the appalling process of AEMC rule change proposals; without raising finance; without building one new plant or transmission line.

    She got heckled for it, but I have no idea why. Probably something to do with verisimilitude.

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