Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A better result for the Coalition from Essential Research this week brings the pollster back into line with the 53-47 consensus.

As I should have reported yesterday, this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has ticked in favour of the Coalition, who gain a point on the primary vote at the expense of Labor to lead 38% to 36%, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, as the Greens rise a point to 11% and One Nation falls one to 5%. Most of the supplementary questions this week are less clearly framed than they might be, but a question on the Trans-Pacific Partnership suggests respondents are less inclined to think it stacked in favour of big business than they were when the United States was on board. Another question repeats an exercise from October last year in gauging opinion on major policy decisions of recent decades, finding overwhelming support for compulsory superannuation and Medicare, pluralities in favour of the GST, free trade agreements, floating of the dollar and reducing car manufacturing subsidies, and better-than-usual responses to privatisation, breaking in favour of Qantas and against Telstra and the Commonwealth Bank.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

884 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. guytaur @ #599 Friday, June 2, 2017 at 1:09 pm

    He was backing Ford Apple Mars Unilever Johnson and Johnson to name a few being for the Paris agreement

    So it is back to being “the greatest moral, economic and social challenge of our time”? I guess that’s good … but I’d ask him again tomorrow.

  2. Brexit has nothing to do with the UK’s economic woes. Those are due primarily to fiscal and regulatory decisions by the national government.

  3. Meant to add on past form the MSM in general have given reluctant coverage of Climate science and action under Turnbull. Their boy has to be protected.

    However, th MSM love dissent and the government will provide that in spades over coming days.

    Yes, the MSM will cover this issue but for the wrong reasons.

    Cheers.

  4. Doyley.

    Yeah. Thats basically how I see it too. Plus when international media report locals tend to follow.

  5. Does anyone know when the final Finkel report is expected to be released? I believe it is soon, but I don’t have an actual date. All it says on the website is

    The Final Report will be submitted to the Council of Australian Governments by the middle of 2017.

  6. I see that all the Sanders supporters who refused to turn out for Clinton can now take pride in their bit in enabling a Trump win… and for their bit in enabling the US to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
    Their first resonse?
    ‘It has got nothing to do with us!’
    Their second respose?
    ‘It does not really matter anyway.’
    This same crowd barracked for the SYRIZANS while they wre ked Greece.
    They refused to turn out for Macron… implicitly backing Le Pen.
    The did their best for Turnbull…(you will all recall how Labor and the Coalition are the ‘same’… a prime delusionary trend amongst the Greens far leftiez…
    …and now they throw their weight behind Corbyn when almost any sane centrist Labor leader would have smashef May…
    …oh, and when they don’t like the message, their coping mechanism is to start sniping at the messenger.

  7. Does anyone know when the final Finkel report is expected to be released? I believe it is soon, but I don’t have an actual date.

    Best I’ve heard is “June.”

    I note Frydenberg (resisting the temptation to alliterate, for now) was out muddying the waters yesterday, so I guess it is imminent.

  8. https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/06/01/essential-research-53-47-labor-11/comment-page-13/#comment-2591412

    The vast majority of Sanders supporters turned out for Clinton.

    The vast majority of Melonchon supporters turned out for Macron.

    SYRIZA were out negotiated/blackmailed by Brussels into supporting what the other parties running Greece had been doing at Brussels`s request since the crisis came.

    A centrist “Labour” politician would not be making greater inroads against the Tories because they would not be inspiring young people to vote for change.

  9. player one @ #609 Friday, June 2, 2017 at 1:18 pm

    Does anyone know when the final Finkel report is expected to be released? I believe it is soon, but I don’t have an actual date. All it says on the website is

    The Final Report will be submitted to the Council of Australian Governments by the middle of 2017.

    I think I heard today that he will release it late next week.

  10. “A centrist “Labour” politician would not be making greater inroads against the Tories because they would not be inspiring young people to vote for change.”

    True, but what some see as ‘centrist’, I see as rightist with a Labour veneer.

  11. BK

    I think I heard today that he will release it late next week.

    On the Friday before the long weekend? That fits!

  12. ABC24 gave Mark MacGowan 5 or so minutes of air time answering ad hoc questions on WA after Shorten finished the ‘joint’ bit.

    He seems to be able to hold his own.

  13. adrian @ #619 Friday, June 2nd, 2017 – 1:32 pm

    “A centrist “Labour” politician would not be making greater inroads against the Tories because they would not be inspiring young people to vote for change.”

    True, but what some see as ‘centrist’, I see as rightist with a Labour veneer.

    Labor and Labour are centrist parties because that’s where the votes are. Woolly rhetoric and gesture politics may keep the inner fire burning. But, in a democracy, if you don’t turn up to vote, then nothing changes.

  14. Point me to anywhere I have said any such thing.

    Exactly P1. A cornerstone of your intellectual dishonesty is never actually directly stating that you believe that solar/battery is too expensive and always will be. Instead you quite happily come to conclusions as if this core belief is self evident fact.

  15. I think that IOPL and LKIV is likely to have a far higher impact on the price of LOG moving forward, but only if you factor in the supply side equation of WSLP as % of FRQW.

    Covfefe?

  16. cud chewer @ #627 Friday, June 2, 2017 at 1:43 pm

    Point me to anywhere I have said any such thing.

    Exactly P1. A cornerstone of your intellectual dishonesty is never actually directly stating that you believe that solar/battery is too expensive and always will be. Instead you quite happily come to conclusions as if this core belief is self evident fact.

    That’s because I don’t believe any such thing. Like most of your arguments, this notion makes sense only within your own fevered imagination.

  17. Your opposition to an EIS indicates…

    Misrespresentation of other people’s views is also a cornerstone of your intellectual dishonesty (and self decript). You’ve also done this regularly to others.

    For the record I am in favour of an EIS. An EIS may make coal less competitive to gas. But it also makes renewables more competitive to gas.

    One thing you don’t get is that this isn’t a system run by decree. Its a market. And investors won’t invest in the sort of baseload gas power you fantasise about because its too risky. They too can see solar/storage continuing to fall in price. You can’t. That’s your problem.

  18. Former NSW Labor minister Ian Macdonald will join his one-time political ally Eddie Obeid in prison after the Supreme Court jailed him for a maximum of 10 years for criminal misconduct for giving a lucrative coal exploration licence to a former union boss.

    Macdonald, 68, is the second Labor figure to be jailed after explosive corruption inquiries that kicked off in November 2012.

    These things take too long to play out.

    http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/former-nsw-labor-minister-ian-macdonald-jailed-for-up-to-10-years-over-doyles-creek-coal-deal-20170601-gwhyp5.html

  19. I’m glad MacDonald and Maitland have been put away. But they shoulda thought bigger and called it all “privatisation”. Then they would be scot-free living the high life.

  20. Boerwar,
    I agree with you on Trump, which is why I disagree with you on Corbyn.
    My attitude is that I support the leader who closest matches my views. After decades of tax cuts, which have primarily benefited the rich, the rise in inequality, the current sluggish global economy, and the impacts of globalisation on lower and middle incomes needs to be addressed. I would argue that the shrinking of the spending base is in large part the cause of the economic malaise. Not to mention there is a real danger that popular nationalism will restrict trade and damage the economy further.
    Once the Democratic party chose Hillary I supported her because her policy did more to address inequality than Trump (Although we are always having to guess with that idiot).
    The MSM here seem totally blind to what LNP tax policy is attempting to do, and then spew “Labor Budget” nonsense and that the ALP should support it. Wilfully ignoring how it will increase inequality and benefit only the 1%.
    While not being fully versed in the feuds of UK Labour, mainly because I couldn’t think of anything less interesting, Corbyn’s policies seem generally similar to much of what Shorten has been suggesting.
    I think any left leaning person slagging off Corbyn during his campaign is no different to slagging off Hillary or Shorten.
    Sure, deciding leaders is arbitrary, and we may all have our own personal preferences, but once that decision has been made it is a waste of time to bitch about it, the alternate is worse.
    In all 3 cases they have better policies, and not just on taxation, but climate change, health etc…

  21. P1

    That’s because I don’t believe any such thing. 

    “The cost of renewable energy with storage will continue to fall”

    True or false.

    No bullshit. Yes or no.

  22. My attitude is that I support the leader who closest matches my views.

    What I should have said there is “I support the policy that closest matches my views”.

  23. The climate change deniers within the coalition are already out and about.

    Sounding like a bunch of angry old men well-practised in the art of yelling at clouds.

  24. cud chewer @ #634 Friday, June 2, 2017 at 1:51 pm

    For the record I am in favour of an EIS. An EIS may make coal less competitive to gas. But it also makes renewables more competitive to gas.

    Good. Then we agree. Now if you would just stop misrepresenting my views then there is no need to argue further.

  25. P1
    I agree – I was pleased to see the sentences (10 yrs and 4 yrs) given that we are harassing welfare recipients for simple mistakes. What Maitland and McDonald did gives a bad name to politics generally. If Labor wonders why it is so hard to “cut through” on some policies, it is because of this. Hopefully Obeid’s case will be resolved soon too.

  26. A respected University of Western Australia expert has urged the public and the government to “ask harder questions” in the wake of a “catastrophic” fish kill that left 30,000 fish floating on the Murray.

    The dead fish include bream, whiting, flounder, crabs and mulloway around the South Yunderup area, and downstream of Forrest Highway towards the river mouth. An investigation into the “event” was launched with fish and water samples collected for testing. …
    “Thirty thousand fish dying is not an ‘incident’. It is not business as usual. It is a reminder that the system is fragile.”

    Professor Ghadouani, executive director of the Cooperative Research Centre for Water Sensitive Cities, said he was not criticising the government, but gave the analogy of the need to go to a specialist when a blood test at the GP showed a major abnormality.

    “The official line is we are monitoring, we are measuring,” he said.

    “Monitoring doesn’t cut it. A better understanding of the systems is needed. They are doing it by the book but we need more than a textbook reaction. We need serious attention.”

    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/massive-catastrophic-murray-fish-kill-sparks-big-questions-20170601-gwikih.html

  27. So, your like those guys in “waiting for Godot”,

    or those guys and gals in the gallery waiting for the Budget Bounce and the Real Malcolm

  28. This lady is really smart (sarcasm).

    The department’s boss Kathryn Campbell told the committee that DHS was hiring a private firm to provide 250 call centre operators to answer phones, but that they would be mostly taking the “simpler” inquiries.

    “Hopefully if they were ringing, for example, 20 times a day, if we’re able to take them on the first occasion, that would mean the other 19 calls wouldn’t occur,” she said.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/public-service/smartphones-blamed-as-centrelink-sends-out-42-million-engaged-signals-20170602-gwiskh.html

  29. No P1. We are quite definitely not in agreement about the effect of an RIS. You are a master of misrepresentation.

  30. These things take too long to play out.

    Speaking about, ‘Waiting For Godot’…I’m still waiting for charges to be laid against the corrupt NSW Liberal miscreant MPs!

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