BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor

Poll aggregation records a slight trend in favour of the Coalition ahead of Tuesday’s budget.

Before we proceed, please note posts below on British and French elections, and a bumper post on Tasmania that encompasses newly published federal and state electorate boundaries, today’s three elections for seats in the state’s upper house, and a state poll result that provides good news for the new Labor leader, Rebecca White.

The only new addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate this week is the usual weekly Essential Research result, an all too common state of affairs in Newspoll’s off weeks that should finally be rectified with YouGov’s imminent entry to the Australian polling caper. The trendline is now doing something it hasn’t done since the election – bending back slightly in favour of the Coalition. The Coalition have also picked up two this week on the seat projection, one apiece in Victoria and South Australia. The other trend worth noting is that One Nation are down for the seventh week in a row. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

I’ve had two paywalled articles this week in Crikey, which is well worth your subscriber dollars if the state of the Australian news media is of concern to you, as it should be. One of these tackled Peta Credlin’s revisionism concerning the electoral gender gap:

In defiance of the conventional wisdom, Credlin sought not just to dispel the “myth” of the Tony Abbott “woman problem”, but also to argue that the charge could more properly be levelled at his successor. The implications of Credlin’s claim run well beyond the small matter of the Turnbull-Abbott rivalry, as gender has been the most volatile demographic element in the federal electoral equation since the knives came out for Kevin Rudd on June 23, 2010.

The other considered One Nation’s recent fadeout and its implications for the looming Queensland state election:

The One Nation renaissance is once again inviting comparisons to Groundhog Day, as the party faces the possibility of deregistration in Queensland over irregularities in its legal structure. The latest development adds to an accumulation of bad news not just for One Nation, but also for Queensland’s Liberal National Party opposition, which has been hoping that One Nation will provide the key to a quick return to office after its shock defeat in January 2015.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,881 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.4-47.6 to Labor”

Comments Page 32 of 38
1 … 31 32 33 … 38

  1. Not very original, but “firm and fair” have already come out for a a run for the Budget, while Jobsengroath might just be waiting on the side line.
    I think “family”, “future”, “affordable housing”, “good debt”, “bad debt”, “infrastructure” and “reviews” (many times over) are all to be heard I suspect.

  3. Words you won’t hear in the same sentence.
    “Cost benefit analysis” and “public service decentralisation”. 🙂

  4. I wonder if they are really going to commit to the inland rail project, try to keep the Nats happy with another study.

  11. itzadream @ #1555 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 6:07 pm

    Gillian Triggs today in Melbourne:
    * 457 visa changes have a racist look to them
    * that Labor add was a worry
    * doctors and others working with detainees can influence public debate
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/may/09/gillian-triggs-says-coalitions-457-visa-changes-appear-to-be-motivated-by-racism

    Triggs second point is wrong, but the advertisement can be interpreted that way unfortunately.

  13. bemused @ #1561 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 6:13 pm

    itzadream @ #1555 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 6:07 pm

    Gillian Triggs today in Melbourne:
    * 457 visa changes have a racist look to them
    * that Labor add was a worry
    * doctors and others working with detainees can influence public debate
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/may/09/gillian-triggs-says-coalitions-457-visa-changes-appear-to-be-motivated-by-racism

    Triggs second point is wrong, but the advertisement can be interpreted that way unfortunately.

    That should be first point.

  14. itzadream @ #1557 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 6:10 pm

    1.5 degrees looks certain, possible as early as within the next decades and the oceans hold the clues.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2017/may/09/planet-could-breach-15c-warming-limit-within-10-years-but-be-aware-of-caveats
    So what’s the betting on Climate Change even getting a mention tonight.

    1.5 degrees is a pipedream. So is 2 degrees. 3-4 degrees is what is expected to occur even if all countries meet their Paris targets. If they don’t well … the dinosaurs get to keep their record as the planet’s most successful animals.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/03/world-on-track-for-3c-of-warming-under-current-global-climate-pledges-warns-un

    And yes, I agree it will probably not even get a mention! : (

  15. 1. The ad was bad.
    2. The Greens Far Left were silent, absent, on the genocidal tendencies of the Front National but dropped their guts on a single Labor ad.
    3. Typical.

  16. **Not whisky. Shiraz**
    Do peeps still drink Shiraz?

    The key word tonight is ‘extra’. Who in the MSM will pick up on the phrase “extra billions” and pick apart what is additional to already planned (or previously promised) expenditure and what is just re-badged, re-branded, card shuffled, smoke and flatulence?

  19. “the government might actually be funding some of the desperately needed rail upgrades in capital cities rather than yet more freeways.”
    Socialists!

  20. I wonder if this Surplus predicted to happen in 2021 will be made to magically appear by wishing away all the ‘Good Debt’?

  23. Cat,

    Apparently the budget will have a total projected debt approaching $600 billion. No wonder Morrison was rushing around screaming ” good debt ” !

    Cheers.

  24. Itza – **might be passed onto customers**
    With buzzwords the topic of the evening I am wondering when the term “interest rates” will come up again considering they are already on the rise while pay is not.

    Directly on your topic – it is pure Coalition to make ordinary customers pay the cost of Bank indiscretions.

  26. I welcome this government’s apparently dramatic conversion to fairness, equity and public transport.

    I also look forward to the media howling ‘where’s the money coming from’ at every opportunity.

    Er sorry, was just having an aspirational dream.

  28. Timely report, with the story of the dying lady with maggots in her mouth.

    The Dutch may be renowned for tulips and Edam cheese, but these days it’s their innovative district nursing and homecare model that is exciting global interest. Buurtzorg, which translates as “neighbourhood care”, is seen by its many enthusiasts as a key part of the solution to challenges facing healthcare systems across the world.

    From Aberdeen to Shanghai, the Buurtzorg approach is being seized on by policy-makers as a means of enabling people with care needs to live independently with much less formal support. Potential cost savings of up to 40% have been calculated.

    At the same time, the model is said to be hugely popular with the nursing teams who run it because it frees them from management control and unleashes their entrepreneurial creativity. And it is very simple.

    Buurtzorg was founded 10 years ago by a 56-year-old nurse, Jos de Blok, and started with an initial team of four. The system that evolved deploys teams of up to 12 nurses, who are responsible for between 40 and 60 people within a particular area. There are now around 900 teams in the Netherlands, supported by no more than 50 administrators and 20 trainers.

    The principle underpinning the model is that the nurse acts as a “health coach” for the individual and their family, emphasising preventive health measures but also delivering necessary care themselves or calling on others to do so. The golden rule is that nurses must spend 61% of their time in direct contact with the people they support.

    An evaluation by consultancy KPMG in 2012 found that although the care might be costlier per hour than under a traditional approach, it was of higher quality and better appreciated by those in receipt. Crucially, only half as much care was typically required.

    https://www.theguardian.com/social-care-network/2017/may/09/buurtzorg-dutch-model-neighbourhood-care?CMP=soc_568

  31. Re the ” billions for rail projects ” in the budget. I believe I would be confident in suggesting that any funding will be on Turnbull government terms and given the employment resume of Turnbull in a previous life any funding would be contingent on a set rate of return back to the Commonwealth ie it would conditions attached and would be more a loan than direct funding. It s all in the small print just like any Turnbull policy.

    Cheers.

  32. simon aussie katich @ #1566 Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 6:24 pm

    **Not whisky. Shiraz**
    Do peeps still drink Shiraz?
    The key word tonight is ‘extra’. Who in the MSM will pick up on the phrase “extra billions” and pick apart what is additional to already planned (or previously promised) expenditure and what is just re-badged, re-branded, card shuffled, smoke and flatulence?

    A double if it’s replacing a previous budget cut with less money than was already allocated when they took office. 🙂

  33. I heard a few weeks ago when the Train Infrastructure idea was bubbling to the surface that it will likely be a condition of funding by the Commonwealth that each project include a Value Capture component.

    So the Liberals spiv mates can make a killing on each project.

  37. Budget 2017..

    A GREAT BIG NEW TAX on broadband & bank customers..

    A GREAT BIG INCREASE in student income tax..

    A GREAT BIG CONTINUATION of the high income earners levy..

    A GREAT BIG STICK to punish the un-employed..

    ..I smell a GREAT BIG TORY BUDGET FAILURE!!..

  40. A sensible perspective on the Labor Ad by Possum Comitatus:

    Possum Comitatus‏ @Pollytics 3m
    Ethnicity based messaging in political campaigns is actually an interesting thing in Australia. Mostly because of who complains about it.

    Possum Comitatus‏ @Pollytics 2m
    But also because of who doesn’t – and why it has rarely been a problem in organised politics

    Possum Comitatus‏ @Pollytics 1m
    hint – it’s rarely been a problem, because it’s rarely been an actual *problem* – you know, something that actually hurts people

    Possum Comitatus‏ @Pollytics 46s
    Running campaigns in the Chinese media, using Chinese families as props, with messages crafted that correlate with that identity are regular

    Possum Comitatus‏
    @Pollytics
    Running campaigns in Indigenous media or on the ground in communities, doing the exact same thing is regular.

  42. “ad” not “add”, “rein in” not “reign in”, “should have”, not “should of”.
    Whatever ever happened to Colton?

  44. C@t:

    The other thing about using a mish mash of cultures in advertising is that you run the risk of your ad looking like an iStock photo – totally fake.

  45. On my visit to Barcelona last year saw graffiti telling tourists to fark off. Didn’t notice any back in 2014.

  46. Puff, The Magic Dragon.
    Tuesday, May 9, 2017 at 6:49 pm
    What is wrong with a good shiraz?

    It’s just about all I drink.

Comments Page 32 of 38
1 … 31 32 33 … 38

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *