Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another status quo result from Essential Research, as a new entrant in the Australian polling market prepares to take the field.

The latest Essential Research poll, conducted for The Guardian Australia, has two-party preferred steady at 53-47, with both major parties up a point each, to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 37% in Labor’s, and the two biggest minor parties down one, leaving the Greens at 9% and One Nation at 7%. Other findings:

• Compulsory voting has the support of 66% of respondents, which is down five points since the question was last asked in October 2013, with 27% opposed, up two. Eighty per cent say they would have been likely to vote if it were not compulsory, versus 12% for unlikely.

• Economic sentiment has improved since December, with 30% now describing the state of the economy as good (up seven) and 29% as poor (down seven), and 29% thinking it headed in the right direction (up three) against 41% for the wrong direction (down four).

• A question on budget priorities find respondents want spending increased on nearly everything, with the exception of defence, foreign aid and business assistance, with health care, education and age pensions at the top of the chart. Respondents expect the budget will most favour business and the well off, and least favour “older Australians” and “you personally”.

• Contrary to expectations earlier in his career, respondents are confident that Malcolm Turnbull can deliver on “tougher citizenship requirements”, “tighter regulations for foreign workers” and “secure borders”, but not a strong economy, jobs and growth, a balanced budget and, most of all “action on climate change”.

In other polling news, there will shortly be a new entrant into the market in the shape of British market behemoth YouGov:

A new nationally representative political poll launches and goes into the field for the first time this week — a partnership between leading international research and polling firm YouGov and Australian engagement and communications agency Fifty Acres.

YouGov is an international online market research firm, headquartered in the UK, with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Australia …

The poll will be a fortnightly online survey conducted amongst 1,000 Australians aged 18+. The poll sample is nationally representative with quotas based on age, gender and region.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,698 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Ahhh, our wonderful BCA:
    In their report, Inside Job, CAI identified six major business or trade organizations with poor records on fighting climate change, which will have delegates at the UNFCCC. Three of them are based in the United States and are all are groups with ties to the fossil fuel industry: the US Chamber of Commerce, the National Mining Association, and the Business Roundtable. The other organizations are FuelsEurope based in Brussels, the Business Council of Australia, and the International Chamber of Commerce based in Paris.
    http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/05/big-polluters-un-climate-talks

  2. I note that The Oz is extolling the wonders of the Trump/Turnbull meeting.
    Did they discuss Duterte’s mass murder?
    Did they discuss Trump’s serial groping of women?
    What?

  3. Bemused
    The problem with people “joining the dots” is that a number “see” so many dots they end up being able to draw any pattern that takes their fancy.

  4. It seems the gas industry may be getting a little worried …

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-05/woodside-issues-gas-invite-to-east-coast-as-shortage-continues/8501956

    Now they are prepared to supply as much gas as we need for use on the east coast … but at a price. Still, this is half the battle won – a gas reservation policy (whcih means they have to sell a certain amount domestically) will do the rest. The sooner the domestic gas market is sorted out, the better for all of us!

  5. Watching the news one would assume the sum total of the US/Australia relationship was one of getting involved in wars together. On that basis I’d advocate a more arms length approach.

  6. and gas is the fastest way to reduce our C02 emissions.

    There you go again P1.

    Asserting (by implication) something that simply isn’t factual. And you wonder why I called you an idiot?

  7. Tom
    That makes four of them. The one I was thinking of shat in his mate’s shoe. Doylie ID’s the perp.

  8. Well, I was just about falling about the place laughing on the reports of the meeting between George Trumbull and Trump this evening on PM.
    First, an ex-ambassador saying making Trumbull wait for 2 hours for a truncated meeting wasn’t a snub. WTTE, oh no, no, not at all, I recall Hawke being made to wait and being diverted to other officials at one time, due to domestic politics, and the defeat of Obamacare was tewwibly important to Trump.
    Then, Trump praising Australia’s healthcare, in blind ignorance of what it is…no comment, though perhaps, none was needed.

  9. cud chewer @ #1561 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 7:19 pm

    and gas is the fastest way to reduce our C02 emissions.

    There you go again P1.
    Asserting (by implication) something that simply isn’t factual. And you wonder why I called you an idiot?

    I called it out as an idiot long ago.
    Good to see others are catching on too.

  10. Today has been a bad day for WA’s coal industry with Synergy announcing the decommissioning of one of its coal-fired power plants and Collie coal miner Griffin Coal going into voluntary administration for the third time. Must be fake news because the coalition and their cronies at the MCA keep telling us that coal has a bright future.

    Synergy (largest generator and retailer in WA) announced that is decommissioning two units of the 240MW coal-fired Muja AB power plant on 30th September 2017 with the remaining two units being retired on 30th September 2018.

    Also, bad news for the gas industry with Synergy also announcing plans to decommission 196MW of gas-fired peaking plants. Synergy and the WA government must have not got P1’s memo on the importance of gas to future energy supply.

    Links:
    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/wa-taxpayers-foot-huge-bill-for-botched-power-project/news-story/469ee6522576a7be3007efb11b156095
    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/parent-company-of-collie-miner-griffin-coal-put-into-administration-20170505-gvz31b

  11. Re the discussion on Left and Right, the following at the top of this thread is relevant:

    ” • A question on budget priorities find respondents want spending increased on nearly everything, with the exception of defence, foreign aid and business assistance, with health care, education and age pensions at the top of the chart. Respondents expect the budget will most favour business and the well off, and least favour “older Australians” and “you personally”.”

    The electorate is apparently fairly left on economic issues. The same is true on many social issues as well, e.g. same sex marriage. Yet at election after election they vote Coalition. The conversation is all too often on the Coalition’s preferred turf – boats, jihadis and alleged “welfare bludgers”.

    Labor needs to change the conversation around election time. Do people really hate brown people on boats so much, are really so scared of deranged idiots playing at being “holy warrior” that they’re prepared to sacrifice Medicare, health, wages and education? Judging by voting patterns, many do.

  12. Might I add, I am utterly disgusted by the current US administration’s, for want of a better word, attitude to healthcare.
    No help for people subjected to rape or domestic violence, abortion unlawful, millions without access to affordable health care.
    They are despicable and not too far away from Putin’s world view. and application of same.
    They are going to have to be fought.

  13. itzadream @ #1526 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 5:47 pm

    The major problems we face as a species cannot be solved if we take these attitudes.
    If one believes in Darwinism, then that which initially ensured survival of individuals and groups of individuals (tribes and nationalism) needs to be transduced into survival of the species.

    Darwinism doesn’t say anything about the future it just says that if a change is of benefit now, it is likely to survive and propagate into the next generation.

    So a larger group of people working together provided more security and allowed the group to benefit from each others’ output.

    The major block to this quantum step is capitalism. It is not only the prime cause of the destruction of the necessary conditions for planetary survival, it is deliberately obscuring the data and blocking the processes needed to correct the trajectory as well as vigorously attempting to sideline those who have made the mature leap in understanding. It, capitalism, is completely self-defeating and anti-Darwinian.

    I disagree here, I see capitalism as completely Darwinian.

    Once you have a reasonably secure society, capitalism provided a means to secure your position and power within that society.
    The problem here is a large wealth divide is created.
    To support this power (force) was used along with bonded labour (slaves, serfs, class systems …).

    Now, it is in developed countries where we have broken away from Darwinism.

    In placing rules and regulations on capitalism we endeavour to temper the worst excesses and redistribute wealth to the overall benefit of the society.

    The destructive forces

    Wrt species survival, whatever is needed to be learned and incorporated into group thought may well not come till much of the species is lost. Maybe that’s what is needed.

    The Right argue for lower taxes and less regulation for business, a return to Darwinism and further social inequality and environmental damage.

    Where the evidence suggests, that with the growing levels of inequality in our society and the state of our environment, that a more anti-Darwinian approach of tighter controls on business through rules and regulations is needed.

    One path leads social upheaval and to a natural possibility of Darwinism, potential extinction.

    While the other has the potential to start addressing the problems.

  14. Steve777
    That’s why Labor are going around the MSM, going directly to town hall meetings and the like.
    The Coalition are only in power by one seat.
    Abbott is going to continue to cause division.

  15. Yup the Americans’ attitude to healthcare is appalling for such a rich country. Just watched Maddow talking to 2 people who’d got “on TV commitments from their Rep reps” that they’d NOT vote for repeal because it might mean their or a loved-ones early death (saw both). Yet both congressmen did vote t repeal anyway. Tragically sad for these people.

    Ridiculous that Trump commended our system which is cheaper and universal, though I suspect his knowledge of it is about as thorough as it is of his own country’s history (i.e. damned ignorant!)

  16. I wouldn’t vote for Le Pen in this election. I would abstain because neither candidate is acceptable to me. But Le Pen is the lesser of two evils because her election would weaken the power of the pro-austerity establishment.

  17. jenauthor
    Trump is as intelligent and has as much knowledge as a bag of hammers.
    Turnbull looked like a simpering sycophant today, notwithstanding the need to try and smooth things over.

  18. nicholas @ #1573 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 7:56 pm

    I wouldn’t vote for Le Pen in this election. I would abstain because neither candidate is acceptable to me. But Le Pen is the lesser of two evils because her election would weaken the power of the pro-austerity establishment.

    This is just so typical. You won’t vote, and then you complain about those who end up in charge.

  19. nicholas @ #1573 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 7:56 pm

    I wouldn’t vote for Le Pen in this election. I would abstain because neither candidate is acceptable to me. But Le Pen is the lesser of two evils because her election would weaken the power of the pro-austerity establishment.

    Contemptible avoidance of responsibility.

  20. BIGD
    H. sapiens survives as a species statistically if its population stays above 30 breeding pairs.
    Once you get below that level, inbreeding, stochastic events, diseases and the like, render species survival less than an even chance.
    The current and foreseeable distribution of resources hardly bears on the minimum 30 breeding pairs scenario.
    It is hard to see any social, economic or political system that bears on the minimum 30 breeding pairs scenario.
    Even social upheavals that lead to the deaths of billions (sic) are hardly likely to bear on the 30 breeding pairs scenario.
    Unless ecosystem services are degraded beyond all comprehension, a population based around 30 breeding pairs is likely to have to invest very, very little in gathering/hunting food, keeping warm and dry, and gaining access to fresh water.
    While successful gene propagation by individuals is likely to vary enormously within any possible political, social or economic systems, this is unlikely to have significant impacts on the probability of survival at the species level.
    There are other relevant considerations, including the length of our telomeres.
    And the forthcoming collision between the Andromeda and Milky Way galaxies and/or the Sun turning into a Red Giant.
    Finally, it is likely that issues of species survival will be raised as individuals (and their genes) are more and more integrated with material from other species and with inorganic bits and pieces – including an ever-more sophisticated and intrusive array of computer driven stuff.

  21. Barney

    Thanks, I was going to respond to Itza but I think you did it better!

    I would repeat what I’ve said previously, that capitalism evolved naturally; it is simply what happens when people buy and sell.

    Being something human, it has the flaws and virtues of all human creations; and like all ‘-isms’ it doesn’t work at all if you try and make it a ‘pure’ system. It has to be hedged around with regulations.

    If capitalism isn’t ‘working’, it’s because the regulations placed on it are out of whack and need re jigging.

    Capitalism can be made to work to tackle issues such as climate change (indeed, we know pretty much what we need to do to make it do this). Movements such as nationalism can’t, because of their anti global attitudes.

  22. ML
    Apart from the Rabid Right over in The Oz which is slavering over the Trump/Turnbull stuff, I can’t see Turnbull gaining anything out of consorting publicly with a known sleazebag.
    As for Di Natale and Sanders, they will be pretending it has nothing at all to do with them.

  23. grimace @ #1566 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 7:24 pm

    Also, bad news for the gas industry with Synergy also announcing plans to decommission 196MW of gas-fired peaking plants. Synergy and the WA government must have not got P1’s memo on the importance of gas to future energy supply.

    LoL! Even when your state economy is tanking and you find yourselves with an oversupply of electricity, the government had to direct its own state-owned supplier to close its own fossil-fueled power plants. Yes, this certainly sounds like renewables are commercially viable on their own, doesn’t it? Actually, to be fair, what it really says is that both our electricity and gas markets are completely corrupted. But by all means keep trying to prevent the logical solution to reducing C02 emissions. You might even succeed … right up until we get an emissions intensity scheme in place. Then may the best solution win.

  24. There should be a ‘None of the Above’ option on voting cards. I came to that opinion in the 1980’s in a state vote. WA Inc was at its most ‘Inciest’ and looking down the ballot paper in a by election the choice was between a ‘corrupt’ Labor candidate, an F’wit Lib, religious loons, a right wing nutter party, a racist knob or someone i had never heard of. Let people have the option of telling pollies they suck in a way that will give them the message. Earn my vote don’t think you have a right to it.

  25. P
    Yep. Sometimes there is no real choice.
    But I would argue that Bush/Gore; Trump/Clinton; Shorten/Turnbull and Le Pen/Macron were/are real choices.

  26. Monica – at least the bag of hammers has a purpose in the world.

    Trump, not so much.

    Joking aside though, Trump may ultimately prove to be a boon for the progressive side of politics. Nothing restores common sense more than a blatant example of stupidity. The issue is whether they can be rid of him and the reactionary right before he plunges the world into total disaster.

    It is a shame that we have a sham PM of our own at the moment. If ALP had won in 2016, I dare say there would not be the obsequious kowtowing we saw today.

  27. boerwar @ #1577 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 8:04 pm

    BIGD
    H. sapiens survives as a species statistically if its population stays above 30 breeding pairs.
    Once you get below that level, inbreeding, stochastic events, diseases and the like, render species survival less than an even chance.

    Maybe slight hyperbole, my main point here is that Darwinism doesn’t mean that what has a benefit now will result in something that is of benefit in the future. 🙂

  28. poroti @ #1581 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 8:18 pm

    There should be a ‘None of the Above’ option on voting cards. I came to that opinion in the 1980’s in a state vote. WA Inc was at its most ‘Inciest’ and looking down the ballot paper in a by election the choice was between a ‘corrupt’ Labor candidate, an F’wit Lib, religious loons, a right wing nutter party, a racist knob or someone i had never heard of. Let people have the option of telling pollies they suck in a way that will give them the message. Earn my vote don’t think you have a right to it.

    Fine if people were prepared to take responsibility for the outcome.
    But they don’t.

  29. Boerwar

    What I like about the “None of the Above” option is that it would show the pollies that there is a “market” out there that is not being addressed and give them an incentive to try and win those votes.

  30. Watching Turnbull’s pathetic, grovelling and sycophantic effort with Trump today I felt ashamed to be an Australian.

  31. Barney

    Thanks for taking the time.
    I think we’re saying the same thing with inverted terminology – that restrictions are needed on the excesses of capitalism for survival. I would call that a Darwinian step in that I categorise anything that enhances the prospect of survival same. I’m happy to be wrong on terminology, which matters nought in the face what we are dealing with – “potential extinction”.

    I am a closet pessimist. As I said, I think this has come upon us so quickly and the consequences so yet to be sufficiently acknowledged or absorbed as detrimental to survival, it will be/ is already too late to alter outcomes. I was clumsily attempting to note that the time arc of climate change and the time arc of adaptation are not synched enough for adaptation to be effective.

  32. J
    I get the theory.
    In the meantime the Supreme Court will be stacked for the rest of our lifetimes with anti-choice judges.
    Emboldened by the Gorsuch appointment, there is a raft of anti-choice legislation reaching state legislatures. The legislation tends to feature no choice even after rape or incest and even at times at risk to the woman’s life.
    In the meantime the US environment in particular is taking an absolute pizzling.
    In the meantime the US national debt is going to go through the roof.
    In the meantime some tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths are likely to be caused by the repeal of ObamaCare.
    In the meantime global action on global warming is being stymied.
    The Sanders voters who sat it out… and there were enough of them to make a difference… are busy pretending to themselves that Clinton would have been same same.
    D’Oh.
    Just like kooks are going to sit out the French election because they can’t see daylight between Le Pen and Macron.
    Jesus wept.

  33. poroti @ #1581 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 8:18 pm

    There should be a ‘None of the Above’ option on voting cards. I came to that opinion in the 1980’s in a state vote. WA Inc was at its most ‘Inciest’ and looking down the ballot paper in a by election the choice was between a ‘corrupt’ Labor candidate, an F’wit Lib, religious loons, a right wing nutter party, a racist knob or someone i had never heard of. Let people have the option of telling pollies they suck in a way that will give them the message. Earn my vote don’t think you have a right to it.

    I would only agree if it had some meaning in the election.

    i.e. if no candidate received more than 50% of the vote and the “none of the above” vote was above a certain percentage then it would would make the election void. 🙂

  34. Bemuse

    I’m happy to accept. Just as I am happy to accept “schadenfreudeingly’ the shit that will hit my state, WA, because the turkeys here turned to the Libs when the good times rolled into town and the Libs set out on their “Hey, let’s increase the State debt by 1000% ” policy . The piper will be paid.

  35. This is just so typical. You won’t vote, and then you complain about those who end up in charge.

    If there are only two choices and both are appalling, it is a legitimate choice not to vote. In the first round I would have voted for Melenchon. I think centrists are just lazy when they claim without substantiation that Macron is the lesser of two evils in the second round. Austerity is a very great evil, and centrists do far more damage to societies than far-right fringe parties. The fact that austerity proponents can avoid overt racist statements doesn’t make what they do any less evil.

  36. BK
    Watching Turnbull’s pathetic, grovelling and sycophantic effort with Trump today I felt ashamed to be an Australian

    It was the desperation in the reach for the handshake, almost leaving his chair, that was the most sickening. I’ve been uncertain about pride in country since Howard, since children overboard actually. I can pinpoint it.

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