Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another status quo result from Essential Research, as a new entrant in the Australian polling market prepares to take the field.

The latest Essential Research poll, conducted for The Guardian Australia, has two-party preferred steady at 53-47, with both major parties up a point each, to 38% in the Coalition’s case and 37% in Labor’s, and the two biggest minor parties down one, leaving the Greens at 9% and One Nation at 7%. Other findings:

• Compulsory voting has the support of 66% of respondents, which is down five points since the question was last asked in October 2013, with 27% opposed, up two. Eighty per cent say they would have been likely to vote if it were not compulsory, versus 12% for unlikely.

• Economic sentiment has improved since December, with 30% now describing the state of the economy as good (up seven) and 29% as poor (down seven), and 29% thinking it headed in the right direction (up three) against 41% for the wrong direction (down four).

• A question on budget priorities find respondents want spending increased on nearly everything, with the exception of defence, foreign aid and business assistance, with health care, education and age pensions at the top of the chart. Respondents expect the budget will most favour business and the well off, and least favour “older Australians” and “you personally”.

• Contrary to expectations earlier in his career, respondents are confident that Malcolm Turnbull can deliver on “tougher citizenship requirements”, “tighter regulations for foreign workers” and “secure borders”, but not a strong economy, jobs and growth, a balanced budget and, most of all “action on climate change”.

In other polling news, there will shortly be a new entrant into the market in the shape of British market behemoth YouGov:

A new nationally representative political poll launches and goes into the field for the first time this week — a partnership between leading international research and polling firm YouGov and Australian engagement and communications agency Fifty Acres.

YouGov is an international online market research firm, headquartered in the UK, with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Australia …

The poll will be a fortnightly online survey conducted amongst 1,000 Australians aged 18+. The poll sample is nationally representative with quotas based on age, gender and region.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,698 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. P1, whatever it is that you personally might prefer to do, consider what the gas extractors are already doing – and that is ignoring the already available home market demand for their products.

    You re hitting on something their.

    The gas market doesn’t have access and supply coupled, you have to buy each separately. Electricity links network access to supply costs – least generation cost gets the access.

    We beat off an attack from the majors and networks for “firm” access to electricity networks a few years back. That would have given the networks ridiculous market power in an ostensibly “contestable” market, and limited competition to the major generators.

    Gas always was this way, however, so it’s harder to force through the market power-limited changes required.

  2. P1

    No. You keep arguing as if gas is the only answer. You keep butting in to put the brakes on the renewables enthusiasm.

    Just as I have pointed out to you that I think gas is a political solution.

    I am sorry but I have not seen you say lets decommission existing coal power plants. I am sorry if I missed that.

    We both agree on the market being the solution. My argument is that brakes are being put in the way of renewables. Your arguments have been to favour gas when you are presented with evidence solar should be the logical choice on emissions grounds.

    This is why I agree the market should decide. That the market should have every carrot and stick to force zero emissions as quickly as possible in cost and technology terms.

    This requires the kind of policies we saw in the Gillard government.

    Updated for today.

  4. Lizzie

    I agree. We should be taking a war emissions approach.

    Just like everyone mucked in during world war II. Even those on the home front.

  6. Don -**I am just asking on behalf of a friend.**
    My friend warned me that eating the stuff causes a slow absorption that whacks you out for ages.

  7. Libertarian Unionist
    Friday, May 5, 2017 at 3:21 pm

    In some ways we can compare the fossil-fuel/renewable industrial choice with political analogues – the choice between aristocratic and democratic forms. The former is characterised by concentrated power, constructed privilege and necessarily limited access; while the latter features dispersed power and universal access and the abolition of privilege.

    It’s no wonder the monopolists, who thrive on high capital density (their existential strength is in capital management), dislike the renewables sector, which is relatively capital-thin.

  8. So scrott doesn’t have a revenue ‘problem’ ?

    An analysis of the 13 largest foreign and Australian-owned alcohol producers shows five paid no corporate tax in 2013-14 and 2014-15, while two paid well below the statutory rate of 30%.

    Researchers led by the University of Technology Sydney analysed the effective tax rates of the companies from Australian taxation data and compared this data with the companies’ financial statements.

    The researchers then measured the difference between the amount of tax that was paid and the amount that would have been paid if the statutory tax rate was applied to reported profits, finding hundreds of millions of dollars in foregone revenue. The report also noted, however, that “Although there may be legitimate reasons for making consistent losses and paying little tax, it can also be an indicator of tax aggressive behaviour.”

    The wine industry stood out. Researchers found only one wine company made any corporate tax contribution in the past two years.

    …The chief executive of the Winemakers’ Federation of Australia, Tony Battaglene, criticised the research and said it was “outrageous” to suggest wine companies were not paying their fair share of tax.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/may/05/corporate-tax-analysis-reveals-five-alcohol-companies-paid-nothing-from-2013-15

  9. Simon Aussie Katich

    I know of an elderly lady who had a hip replacement and couldn’t sleep, so she used mj cookies and found them an excellent ‘sleeping pill’. I assume with a cookie you can vary the amount you eat – don’t have to scoff a whole plateful!

  10. c@tmomma @ #1358 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 12:18 pm

    Marijuana is able to be dried and ground up like flour then incorporated into food. You could probably even make tablets out of it and boy would it be a better antidepressant than some on offer these days. The codicil, of course, would be that it would be better off being delayed as such until full genetic testing of prospective patients can be carried out to see if they were at risk of schizophrenia and/or psychosis as there is a definite link between consuming marijuana and inducing latent schizophrenia. I’ve seen it first hand.
    One of my sons went to school with a guy whose father had schizophrenia and it seemed as though he was okay until he fell in with a crowd who smoke the devil’s lettuce. Then, before we knew it he had had a full-blown psychotic crisis and ended up an inpatient at the local Mental Health Unit. Since that time he has developed full-blown schizophrenia himself. Sad really. He was likely to have developed it anyway but I think the marijuana precipitated it’s onset.
    Sure did scare my boys away from trying it!

    He was one of the lucky ones.
    Others have suicided.

  11. Good afternoon all,

    I find it intriguing that so many commentators across the board are getting their rocks off on how great it is to take money away from state, independent and Catholic schools. Every school ( minus the group of 24 which appear to be well taken care of ) across the country are going to be adversely affected, state independent and Catholic to the combined total of at least $22 billion over 10 years. Not all of the Catholic schools and independents are ” elite schools ” with the majority being lower end fee charging schools and or schools currently receiving the correct funding levels as per the negotiated agreements in place. The whole concept of Gonski centres around the student not the school they attend with each student to receive the same base subsidy. Further subsidies are then added for individual students with disabilities and so on. The government now wants to reduce the funding levels to the tune $22 billion for these schools over the next ten years, break negotiated, signed and sealed agreements with the states, territories, independent and Catholc sectors with no forward notice and expect a pat on the back and loud and prolonged praise. Students across the education sector will be worse off yet people sit back and rant about how this is a master stroke by Turnbull that will deliver ,at long last, equity in education funding. They are deluded. This whole exercise has been undertaken simply to give positive spin to the fact this this all about getting this issue off the table ( Gonski 2.0 and the wheeling out of David Gonski are the giveaways ) and the hit to ” elite overfunded schools “, all 24 of them, is simply to mask the fact that instead of slashing $30 billion from the education budget that Abbott tried in 2014 Turnbull wants to slash $22 billion.

    The whole thing is absurd.

    Cheers.

  12. The Russian jounal that reported the persecution of gays in Chechnya has had a “fatwa” issued against it.

    Muslim clerics in Chechnya “announced jihad against all the staff of Novaya Gazeta” over the report, which sparked a global outcry.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/chechnya-gay-men-russian-reporter-hiding-detention-torture-elena-milashina-novaya-gazeta-100-men-a7703471.html

    It comes after Britain’s deputy foreign secretary revealed Chechnya’s President Kadyrov wanted the elimination of gay men in the region before Ramadan.

  13. Lizzie, you dont HAVE to scoff the whole plateful. But can you imagine stopping at 1 hash timtam?

    In my friends experience, the potency varies substantially. Not just in the raw material used but also in the cooking method. It would be wise to have half a cooky and wait a whiles. Dont just jump in and eat half a cake like another friend did and then spend the whole night lying in the middle of a cricket oval reading the stars and pondering what that wet feeling is on your face (sprinklers).

  15. Two new companies associated with the legal medical use of Marijuana listed on the ASX yesterday –

    CANN GROUP LIMITED (CAN) – Cultivation of cannabis for medicinal & research

    THE HYDROPONICS COMPANY LIMITED (THC) – hydroponic equipment for medical cannabis

  16. C@t: Your snide insinuation aside, I was specifically responding to the accusation that Marine Le Pen is anti-Semitic in her outlook. As a general principle, Macron is lucky that his opponent is so extreme – it’s the only reason much of the French Left will vote for a candidate who advocates neoliberalism on steroids. So, it looks like it’s President Macron, who is at least not as bad as Le Pen.

    Though how Macron thinks he can sack 120,000 public-sector employees out of a labour force of 30 million whilst simultaneously cutting the unemployment rate by 2.9% (both of which he has promised to do) is beyond me!

  17. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/04/council-local-general-election-mayoral-results-england-scotland-wales

    It’s Theresa May who’ll be having the jolliest breakfast, though, with the Conservatives so far making chunky gains in councils across England and Wales.

    (Important interruption: Scotland doesn’t begin its count until a civilised 9am. We’ll catch up with those results later.)

    Of 10 councils declared in England, the Tories have nabbed nine of them; the other – Cumbria – is under no overall control. In Wales, it’s helped itself to Monmouthshire. Labour has held on to Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and Newport. But the loss of Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil to independents will sting.

    With plenty of authorities still to tot up the totals, it’s the country-wide plusses and minuses that are the ones to watch. At time of writing, the Tories are +105 councillors in England and +31 in Wales. Labour is -45 and -71, respectively. The Liberal Democrats are down by single digits, but currently lord it over Labour in second place overall in England.

    Disappearing act of the night, though, belongs to Ukip. Down 39 seats in England and two in Wales, it currently has a tally of zero and has so far saved not one of the seats it held. Ukip’s Lisa Duffy said she “won’t use the word ‘disaster’”. Everyone else will use the word “disaster”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/05/ukip-faces-electoral-wipeout-after-losing-every-seat-it-had-held

    Ukip faces being wiped out at the ballot box after failing to hold onto a single seat at the local elections.

    The Tories have not drained the swamp. They have become the swamp.

  18. In anthropology they talk a lot about transition. Transition from woman to Mother. From child to adult. From living to death. These transitions are often elaborately celebrated and often the normal rules of society are put aside.

    An example is death rituals. There is a tradition society in Indonesia where once a year at harvest time they drag out all the people who died that year and rebury them in a massive death festival – anything goes. Drugs, infidelity, orgies…

    It is also accepted that a teenager will briefly go through a period of time when they dont follow rules as they near adulthood. Then there is the adulthood ceremony (which can be quite wild but usually with strict rules and supervision) and then it is time to conform to society again. It has been postulated that in Western culture, the teenagers are not firstly allowed to rebel enough and then not encouraged enough to conform. Effectively the transition is not distinct and thus drawn out too long.

  19. Briefly: That does seem to be the way the parties of the Right are “handling” the resurgence of the alt-right – by mainstreaming it.
    This is a disturbing trend…

  21. Simon Aussie Katich Friday, May 5, 2017 at 4:04 pm

    It is also accepted that a teenager will briefly go through a period of time when they dont follow rules as they near adulthood. Then there is the adulthood ceremony (which can be quite wild but usually with strict rules and supervision) and then it is time to conform to society again. It has been postulated that in Western culture, the teenagers are not firstly allowed to rebel enough and then not encouraged enough to conform. Effectively the transition is not distinct and thus drawn out too long.

    **************************************
    Simon, I have read of the Amish in the US where the youth go through a process called Rumspringa translated as ‘running around” As adulthood looms in an Amish adolescent’s life, he must make a crucial decision that will affect the rest of his life: To be or not to be Amish. This experience allows the Amish teen to be cast out in the Non-Amish world of electricity and other vanities. When Amish children turn 16, the rules change. They’re encouraged to experiment and explore. The idea is that teens will come back to the church after tasting the modern world. For most, this means a tentative foray — a trip to the local movie theater, or driving lessons. But for some, the experience, is all about sex, parties and fast cars. Although Amish families handle the practices that lead to adulthood differently, often 80-90% of Amish youth join the Amish church.

  22. Matt
    Friday, May 5, 2017 at 4:00 pm
    C@t: Your snide insinuation aside, I was specifically responding to the accusation that Marine Le Pen is anti-Semitic in her outlook. As a general principle, Macron is lucky that his opponent is so extreme – it’s the only reason much of the French Left will vote for a candidate who advocates neoliberalism on steroids.

    neo neo neo.

    The pop-left should explain why neo-Liberal (if that’s what they are) Germany has had such a different trajectory from neo-Liberal (if that’s what they are) Spain or France or Italy. They might explain why the ECB is an instrument of austerity when they have been prepared to buy unlimited quantities of State debt. They might like to explain why neo-Liberal (if that’s what they are) Ireland managed to both boom and bust and then recover all within one framework. They might further like to explain what the difference is between the Russian economy (which is not the EU) and, say, Poland, which is. While you’re at it, explain why the neo-Liberal (if that’s what they are) UK will be better off leaving the (neo-Liberal, if that’s what they are) Eland trying to prosper in the neo-Liberal (if that’s what they are) WTO-defined trading environment.

    In other words, WTF is this neo-Liberalism? Is neo-Socialism a relevant response? How can it be that neo-Fasiscm is an acceptable alternative to neo-Liberalism?

    FFS, when will some historical and intellectual rigour be applied by the pop-left!!!!

  23. Matt
    Friday, May 5, 2017 at 4:09 pm
    Briefly: That does seem to be the way the parties of the Right are “handling” the resurgence of the alt-right – by mainstreaming it.
    This is a disturbing trend…

    It is a trend that is enabled by the pop-left.

  24. simon aussie katich @ #1468 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 4:04 pm

    In anthropology they talk a lot about transition. Transition from woman to Mother. From child to adult. From living to death. These transitions are often elaborately celebrated and often the normal rules of society are put aside.
    An example is death rituals. There is a tradition society in Indonesia where once a year at harvest time they drag out all the people who died that year and rebury them in a massive death festival – anything goes. Drugs, infidelity, orgies…
    It is also accepted that a teenager will briefly go through a period of time when they dont follow rules as they near adulthood. Then there is the adulthood ceremony (which can be quite wild but usually with strict rules and supervision) and then it is time to conform to society again. It has been postulated that in Western culture, the teenagers are not firstly allowed to rebel enough and then not encouraged enough to conform. Effectively the transition is not distinct and thus drawn out too long.

    But what are we expected to conform to?

    Yes, we should conform to the laws of a society but outside that you are impacting on a persons individualism and creativity.

    Aren’t these the qualities that lead to change and the development of new ideas?

    To me, too much conformity is the path to stagnation and a far too structured society.

  26. Player One
    Friday, May 5, 2017 at 4:23 pm
    briefly @ #1473 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 4:19 pm

    It is a trend that is enabled by the pop-left.

    Wait … is the pop-left the same as the alt-left?

    Is LNG the same as piped gas?

  27. This presidential contest has two horrible candidates, and the lesser of two evils in this case is Le Pen. When there is an opportunity to weaken neoliberal economic mythology, it should be taken. Le Pen won’t have a parliamentary majority, so there will be scope for the left to get organized and shape what happens next. If (as he probably will) Macron wins, there will just be another five wasted years of austerity and the necessary changes will be delayed.

  31. P1
    Christ you’re a devious little bastard P1 with your pea and thimble.
    You quote this (from the article on grid based battery storage, unrelated to the actual subject which was new solar being cheaper than old coal by 2032)

    Redman even invited his audience to imagine a 100 per cent renewable energy scenario in the year 2050, just a year or so after AGL closes its last brown coal generator

    When the actual context of the statement was this:

    Redman even invited his audience to imagine a 100 per cent renewable energy scenario in the year 2050, just a year or so after AGL closes its last brown coal generator, Loy Yang A. (AGL is working on the assumption that its generator is the last one standing, but the reality is – and it knows this – that Loy Yang A will close well before then).

  32. until renewables can be deployed at scale

    Until P1 realises the simple factual error here, nothing P1 has to say is of any consequence

  33. nicholas @ #1477 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 4:26 pm

    This presidential contest has two horrible candidates, and the lesser of two evils in this case is Le Pen. When there is an opportunity to weaken neoliberal economic mythology, it should be taken. Le Pen won’t have a parliamentary majority, so there will be scope for the left to get organized and shape what happens next. If (as he probably will) Macron wins, there will just be another five wasted years of austerity and the necessary changes will be delayed.

    So if Le Pen doesn’t have a parliamentary majority how will she be able to implement any change?

  34. P1
    Show me the new gas power plants that are signed off. If they’re cheaper and quicker to build, then there must be at least 3 Gigawatts of them. Like the 3 Gigawatts of solar/wind signed off as at April 17th.

  35. Nicholas
    Friday, May 5, 2017 at 4:26 pm
    This presidential contest has two horrible candidates, and the lesser of two evils in this case is Le Pen.

    This is the deluded view of one who will not have to face the consequences of being rendered stateless in one’s own country; of one who will not have to face racially-defined destitution and deportation; of one who will not have to lift a finger for liberty, dignity or prosperity.

    The pop-left, jealous of the success of others, downcast by their own irrelevance, have been seduced by the neo-fascists. At least in the Europe of the 1920s and 30s the left – the entire left – had the good sense and the courage to oppose the madmen. In falling in with Le Pen and the others, the left have declared bankruptcy. Who should ever trust them again!

  36. Ph_Red
    In Australia we have the Rugby League faith where men are encouraged to be children well into their 30’s.

  38. Cud Chewer
    P1 needs to suck on a few less hash brownies. Allow the new brain stem cells to make a start.
    The gas ones seem to have quite a lot of connections.

  39. trog sorrenson @ #1481 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 4:33 pm

    Christ you’re a devious little bastard P1 with your pea and thimble.

    I acknowledged that. Like guytaur, you need to read what I actually post, not what your prconceptions make you think I post.

    Anyway, it seems to have forced you to read the article, so that’s a plus. Next time, try reading it before you post it.

  40. I preface this with: I abhor Turnbull …. but … I quite understand why he did not dispute Trumps’ lies about THAT phone call …

    I expect he has been told by diplomats to NOT create a scene under any circumstances. Like the German PM, he should probably have simply ignored what Trump said instead. But being a schmoozer like Trump, he probably couldn’t help himself by going that one step further and agreeing.

    For men like this, EVERYTHING is all about making the sale … and in this case the sale is diplomacy.

  41. trog sorrenson @ #1484 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 4:37 pm

    Show me the new gas power plants that are signed off. If they’re cheaper and quicker to build, then there must be at least 3 Gigawatts of them. Like the 3 Gigawatts of solar/wind signed off as at April 17th.

    Well, SA has just signed off on a new one, and is also re-opening Pelican Point. More will follow if an emissions intensity scheme is implemented.

    Why are you so afraid of gas, and why do you continue to propose that we must burn coal instead?

  42. What is Victoria going to do with all the undug brown coal?
    When Coal was King in the Latrobe Valley, it used to be boasted, “At the present rate of mining, the brown coal deposits will last for 200 years……………….”. Looks as though they are going to last for ever. I don’t think anyone in the Valley will miss the pollution which has been going on since the 1920s when the Yallourn power stations first cranked up.

  43. Simon Aussie Katich Friday, May 5, 2017 at 4:40 pm
    Ph_Red
    In Australia we have the Rugby League faith where men are encouraged to be children well into their 30’s

    ******************************************
    I think it happens in the AFL too, Simon ….. and into their 50’s sometimes i.e. Warwick Capper …..

  45. Barney – **But what are we expected to conform to?**
    I see no reason a society can not include provision of individuality and innovation within the rules. And some level of non-conformity can be tolerated unless survival dictates otherwise.

    So, if your chosen method of expressing your individualism causes real harm to others in society and the society itself, then surely it acceptable for that society to decide to make you conform – so long as they weigh up any benefit that individualism may create.

    But you are arguing with a Social Anarchist. I argue from a position that is completely unbalanced and confused.

  46. player one @ #1406 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 2:13 pm

    trog sorrenson @ #1397 Friday, May 5, 2017 at 1:53 pm

    “How much gas generation is under construction, or signed off, right now?”

    No, the question is why are you so implacably opposed to the one technology that can reduce our C02 emissions by 50% in just a few years? But don’t bother – I think we all know the answer to that one.

    The catch is that it would need to displace twice as much coal burning that renewables would!
    And after building that gas burning capacity, it would soon need to be displaced to approach zero emissions. So the capital would be wasted on white elephants.
    Crazy stuff!

  48. PhRed
    I see your Warwick Capper and raise you a Matthew Johns.
    But I was being unfair. There are a lot of Rugby League players with their heads screwed on properly.

  49. Students across the education sector will be worse off yet people sit back and rant about how this is a master stroke by Turnbull that will deliver ,at long last, equity in education funding.

    Doyley

    I assume the ‘people’ you are referring to are the commentariat. But we already know how useless they can be on big issues such as this, so we shouldn’t be surprised. The push back will surely come from the stakeholders – the schools, the state governments, the parents, the catholic church etc. With two years still to go until the next election there is more than enough time for the big con to be fully exposed – and IMO it will be.

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