Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

This week’s Essential Research offers results on Tony Abbott and 457 visas, along with yet another boring set of voting intention numbers.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average maintains its recent habit of shifting between 53-47 and 54-46, the latest instalment going from the latter to the former. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 37% and Labor is down one to 36%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 10% and 8%, so that the result is in all respects identical to the week before last. The poll also finds 40% think Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, 17% that he should stay on the back bench, and another 17% that he should be given a position in the ministry. This is worse for him than when the same questions were posed in August last year, when the respective results were 37%, 21% and 25%. Other findings relate to the tightening of 457 visas: 16% said they went too far, 28% not far enough, and 39% that they were about right; 59% approved of allowing visa holders to apply for permanent residency, against 23% disapprove; 78% agreed that those applying for permanent residency should first be put on a probationary visa, against only 10% for disagree.

The Australian also had extra questions from Newspoll, which found that 70% favoured the government prioritising spending cuts over 20% for increasing taxes, but that only 30% favoured cuts to welfare payments with 61% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. darn @ #399 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 9:11 am

    If you get the chance have a listen to Turnbull on 3aw this morning trying to explain to an old age pensioner who can’t afford to keep her heater on in the cold weather because the gas costs too much. Her name is Greta and Mitchell asked Turnbull if he can guarantee that Greta’s bills will go down as a result of his negotiations with the gas companies.
    As far as I could discern from the interminable waffle, his answer was wtte that a small portion of Greta’s bill (about 20% of it he said) MIGHT fall by an indeterminable amount. I’m sure while she is shivering in the cold this winter that will give her great comfort.
    As with all of Turnbull’s attempts to convince us that he has the answers to Australia’s problems, this one has disaster written all over it.

    I’m sure the amount could be roughly determined if actual modelling was performed.
    What about the other 80% of her bill?
    This I imagine would cover delivery costs and profit amongst other things.
    How much will they rise by?

  2. ‘1. Emphasizing what she was against, not what she was for.’

    Exactly what Trump did. Even promises this writer portrays as ‘positive’ Trump messages – ‘building walls, banning Muslims, scrapping trade deals, blowing up alliances and building up the military’ – are about being ‘against’ not ‘for’.

    ‘2. Relying on identity politics rather than mass persuasion…’

    Again, as I’ve noted above, Clinton did mass persuasion better than Trump did. That’s how she got 3 million more votes.

    Trump also did identity politics. For some reason, however, when someone goes after disaffected working class voters, racists and misogynists, that’s not seen as ‘identity politics’.

    This is another example of right wing framing of issues – if I’m abusive, I’m exercising my right to free speech; if you abuse me back, you’re impinging on my right to free speech; if you support same sex marriage, you’re playing identity politics; if I’m against it, I’m not.

    ‘3. Remaining deaf to the message that “inside” is out.’

    Which is a huge concern.

    My big problem with Obama was that he boasted about not being a Washington insider. Which immediately said to me that he would be steamrolled on most of his agenda, because he simply didn’t know how to negotiate the intricacies of the political system. (His repeated pledges on Guantanamo being a case in point).

    Political ‘outsiders’ can promise the world. Sometimes they do so in all innocence – as Obama did – thinking they’ll be able to deliver. Sometimes it’s more cynical than that; they know they can’t deliver but also think it’s worth pretending.

    Regardless, rejecting ‘political insiders’ out of hand can mean rejecting the people who make promises knowing how difficult they can be to deliver; who rely on evidence over wishful thinking and who have the skills and expertise to negotiate their way through the system.

    Obama didn’t deliver according to expectations; Trump seems to be going the same route. This is precisely because they were (to varying extents) political outsiders, who thus made promises they had no hope of delivering and lacked the skills, contacts and expertise to deliver on ones which were achievable.*

    *Obama did get health care up.

    The media-driven hype about outsiders (which naive optimists such as Nicholas blindly accept – a little more cynicism in the right places is a good thing here) is because pragmatic, sensible, evidence based politics is boring. Outsiders offer colour and movement – but they rarely can deliver, and when they do, often that leads to worse outcomes than doing nothing.

  3. victoria Friday, April 28, 2017 at 9:07 am
    phoenixRed
    If you are about. In addition to Jason Chaffetz announcing last week that he would not recontest in 2018, what do you make of his reasoning for being away from Congress for next four to six weeks? It all rather smells………

    *********************************************
    Hi Victoria – I am sure Maxine Waters knows a lot more about this imbroglio that I do so I will post her thoughts about it :

    Maxine Waters: Jason Chaffetz Might Have Ties To The Kremlin…Because He’s Acting Strange Or Something

    Yet, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) decided to go on MSNBC this week and throw a hand grenade into the mix by suggesting that Rep. Chaffetz may be involved in what’s happening with Russia because he’s acting strange, or something. For Waters, people are saying this, so it must be true, even though she admitted to not having a scintilla of evidence to back it up.

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2017/04/27/maxine-waters-jason-chaffetz-might-have-ties-to-the-kremlinbecause-hes-acting-strange-or-something-n2318979

    ALSO – there is a LONG article in Mother Jones outling his very ambitious political aspirations – and there is some thought that he is trying to escape getting tied too closely to Trump lest he goes down with Trump :

    Chaffetz, a canny political operator, has surely read the tea leaves, wagering that it is in his best interests to sit out the bruising political fights of the Trump administration’s first term lest Trump bring Chaffetz down with him. Given Chaffetz’s talent for self-promotion, it’s likely that he won’t veer too far from the public eye. Talk on Capitol Hill is that he may take the path of other high-profile members of Congress and nab a lucrative contract with one of the networks, where he can maintain his visibility, build up his bank account, and bide his time for the right moment to get back in the political game

    But even as he announced that he was stepping away from politics, Chaffetz and his supporters seemed to be quietly planning his political future. In early April, his campaign committee registered the domains Jason2028.com and JasonChaffetz2028.com.

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/04/jason-chaffetz-oversight-chairman-retiring-congress-trump

  4. McGowan was on the news the other night talking tough about the feds accessing gas resources from here to help eastern states, trying to leverage it for improving WA’s share of the GST.

    Not sure if a state can do that, but it does seem to me like the Turnbull govt’s energy wars are coming back to bite it now the colder months are upon us.

  5. Victims of international money-laundering schemes are being targeted by Australian police in a bid to seize their funds, in a strategy that could have a “disastrous impact” on victims, a former officer has warned.

    “Cuckoo smurfing” schemes launder money by duping innocent parties into being account holders for a series of seemingly legitimate financial transactions known as “structured deposits”.

    The schemes have often targeted migrants from south-east Asian countries who seek to establish a bank account in Australia.

    Australian federal police, who took over proceeds of crime cases from the commonwealth director of public prosecutions several years ago, use restraining orders under the Proceeds of Crime Act to freeze funds and recover them. But they are increasingly targeting funds from innocent parties of smurfing operations.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/28/afp-under-fire-seizing-funds-from-victims-money-laundering

  6. Lizzie, re’ this-

    Guytaur @ #60 Thursday, April 27, 2017 at 9:46 am

    Lizzie

    Dutton now saying he is responsible and should have listened to Professor Gillian Triggs report on exactly this in Senate Committee hearings.

    The podcast is here-

    http://www.2gb.com/podcast/the-ray-hadley-morning-show-full-show-april-27th/

    There’s about 2 hrs of it.

    If Dutton had said what was suggested by Gt I think we’d have heard so from lots of others.

    I’m not going to listen to 2 hrs of Hadley’s demented broadcasting to find out.

  7. PhoenixRed

    Thanks for feedback. I hadn’t seen Maxine Waters latest statements.
    Remember he was person who made Comey’s letter to the house public at the time? Mensch and others have already said in pasyt he is involved in the Trump imbroglio. It certainly feels as if he is deliberately staying away from congress during next month using his old foot injury as cover. As I said, it all stinks

  8. victoria Friday, April 28, 2017 at 9:48 am
    PhoenixRed

    . It certainly feels as if he is deliberately staying away from congress during next month using his old foot injury as cover. As I said, it all stinks

    ***************************************************
    ANYTHING or ANYONE connected to Trump and his administration STINKS !!!! …….as his 100 day FAILURES get highlighted this coming weekend, the stench will spread and his polls will sink lower than they are historically now…..

  9. ctar1 @ #407 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 9:47 am

    Lizzie, re’ this-

    Guytaur @ #60 Thursday, April 27, 2017 at 9:46 am
    Lizzie
    Dutton now saying he is responsible and should have listened to Professor Gillian Triggs report on exactly this in Senate Committee hearings.

    The podcast is here-
    http://www.2gb.com/podcast/the-ray-hadley-morning-show-full-show-april-27th/
    There’s about 2 hrs of it.
    If Dutton had said what was suggested by Gt I think we’d have heard so from lots of others.
    I’m not going to listen to 2 hrs of Hadley’s demented broadcasting to find out.

    If a tree falls in forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound? 🙂

  10. Now that the government has finally realised that there is good debt and bad debt and that borrowing is going to go up, up and up, I am just wondering if the Greens still believe that their support to increase the credit limit of government borrowing, was a good idea? I don’t have a problem with good debt but my concern is that the government loses billions when giving tax cuts to big businesses. This money has to come from somewhere and it is from the borrowing. Easy to hide it as good debt.

  11. The Failure of Trump’s First 100 Days Is a Win for America

    This weekend marks the end of President Trump’s first 100 days — a chance to evaluate not only his progress (or lack thereof), but how the nation will change under a Trump administration.

    It’s good news that Trump thinks governing is as easy as picking up a phone and calling room service at a Trump hotel. The more lazy, ineffectual, and incompetent he is, the less damage he can inflict. The most patriotic act he can perform is to play more golf.

    While the White House busily promotes the sheer number of executive orders the president has signed since January 20, a Washington Post fact-checker found that of the 60 promises candidate Trump made in his self-proclaimed “contract” with Americans, he has kept five, broken five, and taken no action on 34 others. In other words, that “contract” has roughly the same value as a diploma from Trump University: It’s a scam designed to bamboozle a credulous public while he and his family pick its pockets.

    I know people who claim they can turn Trump off and tune him out, and I congratulate them on their self-discipline and mental health. For the rest of us, living through the chaotic first hundred days of his presidency has often felt like standing under an enormous fire hose raining down a nonstop deluge of raw sewage.

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/04/the-failure-of-trumps-first-100-days-is-a-win-for-america.html

  12. CT

    I thought I made clear that was my interperation.

    My reply to Lizzie to do that Dutton would have to be in touch with reality. As I said yesterday I was commenting on the tweet Lizzie posted.

    That was the quote. Not my reply which was interpretation.

  13. Nicholas

    ‘Donald Trump’s desperate bid to get any legislative accomplishment before his first 100 days are up was dealt a crushing blow as his new attempt at an Obamacare repeal bill is already being opposed by 21 House Republicans.’

    Note: this is what happens when you elect someone because they’re a ‘political outsider’.

  14. trog sorrenson @ #392 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 8:50 am

    Domestic solar and batteries to lead the charge to zero emissions, with no expanded role for gas.

    You’re a real sucker for this RenewEconomy stuff, aren’t you? Luckily, it looks like saner heads are finally beginning to realize the critical role gas is likely to play in reducing our C02 emissions in the coming decades. Oh, and I see your article lauds SA for generating 50% of its power from renewables – but have you looked at the SA NEM market today? Yet again renewables are contributing only insignificant amounts of power, with gas generation providing about 80%. No wonder SA is putting more money into gas generation.

    Reality is just such a pain, isn’t it?

  15. Gt

    So rather than “Dutton now saying he is responsible and should have listened to Professor Gillian Triggs report on exactly this in Senate Committee hearings”

    Should be read as “Dutton now saying he is responsible.

    I think he should have listened to Professor Gillian Triggs report on exactly this in Senate Committee hearings.”

    Fine.

  16. CT

    Yeah good thing. I think the quote was fairly early though from when tweets were posted. So at least it would not have been the full two hours.

  17. So after lots and lots of clarification the Government is saying we can have as much gas as we like as long as we’re prepared to pay for it?

  18. President Trump just made a comment “There is a chance of major conflict with North Korea” in an interview according to CNN

    Will post story when I see it.

  19. guytaur Friday, April 28, 2017 at 11:15 am
    President Trump just made a comment “There is a chance of major conflict with North Korea” in an interview according to CNN

    Will post story when I see it.

    ***********************************************
    Just saw this, Guytaur :

    Trump says he’s open to ‘major, major’ conflict with North Korea: Reuters exclusive

    US. President Donald Trump said on Thursday a major conflict with North Korea is possible in the standoff over its nuclear and missile programs, but he would prefer a diplomatic outcome to the dispute.

    “There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea. Absolutely,” Trump told Reuters in an Oval Office interview ahead of his 100th day in office on Saturday.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/trump-says-hes-open-to-major-major-conflict-with-north-korea-reuters-exclusive/

  20. ‘They know it’s dumb’: Republicans in Congress hate Trump’s wall just as much as Democrats

    Republicans in Congress recognize that President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful wall” is “dumb” and they have no intention of ever supporting it.

    A new Politico report alleges that Trump will lose his pet project, but not because of Democrats, because of Trump’s own party.

    “Republicans in Congress don’t want the wall. And that is the most under-reported aspect of this whole skirmish,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI). “Republicans in the leadership of both chambers actually hate that idea. They know it’s dumb.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/they-know-its-dumb-republicans-in-congress-hate-trumps-wall-just-as-much-as-democrats/

  21. Mark Latham running around filming people in West Sydney who can’t speak (or aren’t fluent in) English to ‘prove’ multiculturalism isn’t working.

    I think Latham has his definitions wrong.

  22. Rhttps://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/28/government-cant-guarantee-gas-prices-will-fall-with-export-restrictions?CMP=share_btn_tw

  23. Nicholas
    ‘“Republicans in Congress don’t want the wall. And that is the most under-reported aspect of this whole skirmish,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI). “Republicans in the leadership of both chambers actually hate that idea. They know it’s dumb.”’

    This is the problem with electing political outsiders.

  24. Eddy Jokovich‏
    @EddyJokovich

    (Frydenberg) just contradicted Turnbull in energy and gas again. Out of the Frydenberg and into the fire. #auspol

  25. Will Trump Release the Missing JFK Files?

    The answer must come within months. And, according to a new timeline offered by the National Archives, it could come within weeks.
    .
    Under the deadline set by a 1992 law, Trump has six months left to decide whether he will block the release of an estimated 3,600 files related to the assassination that are still under seal at the Archives.

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/27/will-trump-release-the-missing-jfk-files-215079

  26. Lizzie
    Friday, April 28, 2017 at 11:30 am
    Mark Latham running around filming people in West Sydney who can’t speak (or aren’t fluent in) English to ‘prove’ multiculturalism isn’t working.

    I think Latham has his definitions wrong.

    Mark Latham running around proving he has lost his mind.

  27. lizzie @ #437 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 11:30 am

    Mark Latham running around filming people in West Sydney who can’t speak (or aren’t fluent in) English to ‘prove’ multiculturalism isn’t working.
    I think Latham has his definitions wrong.

    Latham running?

    Obviously these people must be wandering around aimlessly, lost in their inability to integrate into the society.

  28. P1

    None of it is happening overnight. I accept we need the existing coal power stations to be gradually taken off line as their economic life ends.

    Same for gas. I just differ from you in the speed of the transition.

    Thats why I and I think you as well as most not in LNP accept a carbon price. Fastest way for economics to move as efficiently as possible to renewables.

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