Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

This week’s Essential Research offers results on Tony Abbott and 457 visas, along with yet another boring set of voting intention numbers.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average maintains its recent habit of shifting between 53-47 and 54-46, the latest instalment going from the latter to the former. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 37% and Labor is down one to 36%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 10% and 8%, so that the result is in all respects identical to the week before last. The poll also finds 40% think Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, 17% that he should stay on the back bench, and another 17% that he should be given a position in the ministry. This is worse for him than when the same questions were posed in August last year, when the respective results were 37%, 21% and 25%. Other findings relate to the tightening of 457 visas: 16% said they went too far, 28% not far enough, and 39% that they were about right; 59% approved of allowing visa holders to apply for permanent residency, against 23% disapprove; 78% agreed that those applying for permanent residency should first be put on a probationary visa, against only 10% for disagree.

The Australian also had extra questions from Newspoll, which found that 70% favoured the government prioritising spending cuts over 20% for increasing taxes, but that only 30% favoured cuts to welfare payments with 61% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Lizzie
    Thursday, April 27, 2017 at 7:54 am
    I’m pleased that it will be the Coalition redefining spending rules. If Labor did it (and I believe they’re considering it), there would be screeches of anguish all around.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/federal-budget-2017-new-rules-allow-scott-morrison-to-boost-infrastructure-spending-20170426-gvsirc.html

    Me too Lizzie. I’m hoping Labor will use it to finally give us the superlative NBN the Liberals have fought so hard to destroy.

  2. For any Labor staffers. A golden opportunity. Trump budget tax reform is corporate tax cuts. Turnbull tax reform is corporate tax cuts.

    Time to hammer the unpopularity home.

  3. Michael Koziol‏Verified account @michaelkoziol · 12m12 minutes ago
    Dutton on @2GB873: “We are concerned about some allegations of sexual behaviour by the asylum seekers toward girls and women on Manus.”

    Dutton is now beating up his theme to sustain his lies.

  4. Lizzie

    Dutton now saying he is responsible and should have listened to Professor Gillian Triggs report on exactly this in Senate Committee hearings.

  5. Guytaur

    Dutton now saying he is responsible

    Really?? Has he been on the road to Damascus, or is he just trying to retrieve his position as Leader in Waiting?

  6. Lizzie

    I don’t think Dutton realised that he just admitted he as Minister was responsible. That would require some recognition of reality.

  7. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/25/vote-labour-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may?CMP=share_btn_tw

    An excellent article. Thanks for linking it Lizzie.

    No doubt most of the turkeys will go out and thoughtlessly vote for Christmas. But at least Monbiot has made a very insightful and excellent case for those on the left with half a brain to consider.

    The likes of Corbyn and Sanders may not win, but their ideas for a better inclusive society will never be more relevant than they are today.

  8. Did he really say this? Turnbull is becoming more Trumpian as his meeting approaches.

    Tao de Haas‏
    @TaodeHaas

    Turnbull says he has rescued the NBN from Labor and all is going well. OMG, this is all with a straight face. Turnbull is a joke! #auspol

  9. AshGhebranious: How telling. Someone asks Truffles about the NBN and his minders wind up the interview #auspol #abcnews #breakfastnews

  10. Gt

    Dutton now saying he is responsible and should have listened to Professor Gillian Triggs report on exactly this in Senate Committee hearings.

    A link for this?

  11. lizzie @ #59 Thursday, April 27, 2017 at 9:45 am

    Michael Koziol‏Verified account @michaelkoziol · 12m12 minutes ago
    Dutton on @2GB873: “We are concerned about some allegations of sexual behaviour by the asylum seekers toward girls and women on Manus.”

    Dutton is now beating up his theme to sustain his lies.

    Well who’d have thunk it.

    Lock up a group of predominantly young males and some act inappropriately to their sexual urges.

    This is a direct result of the Government’s policy.

  12. 1petermartin: Hang on to your hats. Morrision plans to redefine the concept of “deficit” so he can borrow big goo.gl/uKYM9q @smh @theage #auspol pic.twitter.com/qXRzJ1S9UU

    https://twitter.com/1petermartin/status/857334047340613632

    TheKouk: Morrison has lost control of the budget it seems – so let’s classify the problem away. twitter.com/1petermartin/s…

    TheKouk: Morrison also seems to be saying borrow more when interest rates are low… Yikes! Fails the Eco 1001 rule book

  13. Player One @ #30 Thursday, April 27th, 2017 – 8:51 am

    you have forgotten to include the payback time, assuming that much of their manufacturing will currently come from fossil-fueled energy.

    Perhaps, though if you’re going to do that, you have to apply the same principle on both sides. Manufacturing a traditional vehicle will also consume fossil-fueled energy and produce emissions that are comparable to those involved in manufacturing an EV instead. The battery pack adds about 1 ton of CO2 to a figure which ranges from 6 to 35 tons depending upon the sort of vehicle being produced.

    And then you’d also have to factor in the emissions involved in extracting, refining, and transporting fuel for the petrol vehicle. And the counterpoint to that would be that you’d also have to take into account the emissions generated in mining and transporting coal (or gas, or uranium). The whole thing becomes unwieldy. Though I don’t think any of the conclusions change.

    Even taking the numbers from Victoria (which significantly underperform global averages in terms of CO2 emissions per kWh, therefore saying more about problems in Victoria than problems with EV’s), the worst case gives less than a 10% handicap to the EV (with no allowances made for rooftop solar or other mitigating factors). Considering that worldwide average CO2 per kWh emissions are closer to half what’s reported in Victoria (and will only improve further as more renewables are added to the mix), I still see nothing to support the idea that EV’s will make things worse in the short term.

    At worst they’re neutral; they won’t solve the problem, but they won’t doom us all either. And as the energy mix becomes greener they’ll help doom us a bit less than if everyone just keeps driving petrol vehicles around.

  14. Trump Spent Just Five Minutes In Major Meeting About Stopping A Nuclear War With North Korea

    In a rare, closed-door meeting with the entire U.S. Senate regarding the increasing threat posed by North Korea, the tough-talking commander-in-chief left after just five minutes.

    According to one report from ABC News, Trump gave a few opening remarks before heading back to his office to presumably watch cable news and fire off some tweets.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/26/trump-spent-minutes-major-meeting-preventing-nuclear-war-north-korea.html

  15. ‘We learned nothing’: Senator who attended Trump’s North Korea briefing confirms it was all for ‘optics’

    Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), who attended a White House meeting on North Korea Wednesday, all-but-verified that the gathering was for show. On CNN’s “Erin Burnett Out Front,” the Democratic senator told the host that lawmakers “learned nothing [about North Korea] you couldn’t read in the newspaper.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/we-learned-nothing-senator-who-attended-trumps-north-korea-briefing-confirms-it-was-all-for-optics/

  16. PhoenixRED

    According to one report from ABC News, Trump gave a few opening remarks before heading back to his office to presumably watch cable news and fire off some tweets.

    I hope this hopeless POTUS isn’t getting paid for this shambles. 😉

  17. The GOP need two things to happen before they give Trump the heave ho. Tax cuts and abolishing Obamacare. Too bad if in the meantime, he nukes something. Sigh…..

  18. zoomster @ #35 Thursday, April 27, 2017 at 9:04 am

    I’ll just throw this out there, however – if my excess solar presently goes into the grid, but I produce less excess solar because I’m charging my car, doesn’t that mean that more coal fired electricity is being used?

    If you have enough rooftop solar, yes. Perhaps we should mandate that anyone who buys an electric car must also buy sufficient rooftop solar and feed it to the grid to compensate, or perhaps also buy not only rooftop solar but also buy a battery so they don’t recharge their car from the grid.

    This would only add about $20,000 – $30,000 to the cost of the car.

  19. Lizzie
    Sorry about the emoji post.
    I typed the WordPress wink and my post was then truncated.
    I meant to ask how you did your “Winking Face”.
    😂 Face with tears of joy.

  20. I think people writing off Corbyn are getting a bit ahead of themselves.
    No of course I don’t think Labour can win in terms of getting a majority. The SNP own Scotland so a Labour majority in the Commons is pretty much impossible.

    But with the start of some strategic thinking from the Greens and hopefully followed by LibDems and Labour I wouldn’t discount the Tories losing their majority.

    That would be the end of May and who knows where that could lead. Certainly Corbyn would be greatly enhanced by such a result.

    As hopeless as Corbyn seems in the House he has proven to be an excellent campaigner on the hustings. A few more polls showing Labor picking up votes and images of lines of people trying to get into Corbyn speeches on the news could quite quickly turn the conversation to how he has the ‘momentum’. He won’t get a break from the media obviously, but if enough Bregretters decide a Labor, Lib Dem, SNP majority offers the best chance of reducing the pain if not stop Brexit then the Cons will struggle.

    If Corbyn doesn’t perform as he did in the leadership votes, and/or the LibDems and Labor split the anti Tory vote in seats which one of them would have a chance without the other then May will romp it in. But neither of those are a given for mine.

  21. a r @ #80 Thursday, April 27, 2017 at 10:46 am

    At worst they’re neutral; they won’t solve the problem, but they won’t doom us all either. And as the energy mix becomes greener they’ll help doom us a bit less than if everyone just keeps driving petrol vehicles around.

    I can agree with this. Electric vehicles are in theory a “good thing”, but they won’t solve the problems we currently face. But they become worth investing in if we also solve our C02 problems using other means.

  22. KayJay
    Someone explain upthread that the small bit emojis are acceptable, but the complicated ones aren’t. Sad that I can no longer

  23. lizzie @ #92 Thursday, April 27, 2017 at 11:21 am

    KayJay
    Why do I care? It comes out from a ; and a ) – as always.

    Sorry Lizzie, its just that I have spent a lot of time trying to work out the problems with posting emoticons.
    Most of the WordPress images will not post using the full test method and I am now looking at the text method such as the one you used for the wink.
    ☮ ✌ 😎

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