Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

This week’s Essential Research offers results on Tony Abbott and 457 visas, along with yet another boring set of voting intention numbers.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average maintains its recent habit of shifting between 53-47 and 54-46, the latest instalment going from the latter to the former. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 37% and Labor is down one to 36%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 10% and 8%, so that the result is in all respects identical to the week before last. The poll also finds 40% think Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, 17% that he should stay on the back bench, and another 17% that he should be given a position in the ministry. This is worse for him than when the same questions were posed in August last year, when the respective results were 37%, 21% and 25%. Other findings relate to the tightening of 457 visas: 16% said they went too far, 28% not far enough, and 39% that they were about right; 59% approved of allowing visa holders to apply for permanent residency, against 23% disapprove; 78% agreed that those applying for permanent residency should first be put on a probationary visa, against only 10% for disagree.

The Australian also had extra questions from Newspoll, which found that 70% favoured the government prioritising spending cuts over 20% for increasing taxes, but that only 30% favoured cuts to welfare payments with 61% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Socrates

    The Productivity Commission was the brainchild of Costello

    So a “Dollar Sweetie” creation then. Dollar Sweetie also a founding member of the HR Nicholls Society so I think we know the ideology which would have been hard baked into the PC.

  3. trog sorrenson @ #457 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 12:25 pm

    You’ve lost the argument, so why don’t you just go back to constructing new emoticons or whatever it is that you do, rather than flogging a dead horse.

    You should try actually reading reports before you post them. Also, you should not rely on RenewEconomy for facts – they are a partisan site that routinely distorts and misleads for their own commercial purposes.

    If you can’t interpret the graphs in the report correctly (as it appears you cannot) then here it is in plain english on page 26 in the section on “Carbon Abatement”

    “Gas and non-hydro renewable power generation increase to achieve the abatement target”

    Also, have a careful look at the following figure (figure 10), which shows a substantial increase in gas generation by 2030 under all the scenarios considered by the report.

    Your apology for your gratuitous insults will then be graciously accepted.

  5. On Monday, the office of the immigration minister, Peter Dutton, said the changes would apply to all citizenship applications, including those involving New Zealanders. That would have forced New Zealanders to wait another three years before qualifying for citizenship.

    But English’s office released a statement on Friday, saying the New Zealand prime minister been assured otherwise by Turnbull.

    A spokesman for English said he had been assured the changes would not affect New Zealand citizens who had moved to Australia between February 2001 and 2016.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/28/malcolm-turnbull-tries-to-reassure-new-zealand-over-citizenship-fears?CMP=soc_568

  8. Good afternoon all,

    Considering the vigour with which Bill Shorten prosecuted the case for no government money for Adani I am very comfortable in saying there is more to come on this front.

    Cheers.

  9. GG

    bemused’s refusal to specify who he is talking about is causing confusion. PBers are slightly paranoid, so they tend to assume that unspecified slurs are intended for them personally.

    Of course bemused should show a little more courage and ‘name names’. From what I can work out, however, this is actually impossible, because – despite the wording of his posts – they’re not actually addressed to anyone here at all.

    I have come to this conclusion after several attempts to get him to clarify exactly who he is talking about or to, but he doesn’t seem to really know himself.

    In the meantime, I provide a public service to PBers here by assuring them that he isn’t referring to them.

  10. I think Westpac’s decision makes it almost impossible for the Federal Government to stump up the requested $1B. They would make themselves an absolute laughing stock. Canavan knows it too – that’s why he’s gone so over the top about it.

    If they DO come up with the money, Shorten and Labor will drive a Mack truck right over them.

  12. zoomster @ #509 Friday, April 28th, 2017 – 2:26 pm

    GG

    bemused’s refusal to specify who he is talking about is causing confusion. PBers are slightly paranoid, so they tend to assume that unspecified slurs are intended for them personally.

    Of course bemused should show a little more courage and ‘name names’. From what I can work out, however, this is actually impossible, because – despite the wording of his posts – they’re not actually addressed to anyone here at all.

    I have come to this conclusion after several attempts to get him to clarify exactly who he is talking about or to, but he doesn’t seem to really know himself.

    In the meantime, I provide a public service to PBers here by assuring them that he isn’t referring to them.

    And, more power to your community spirited arm.
    However, as Mahatma Gandhi once said, “Ignoring and not engaging trolls is the best defence”.

  13. Another thought. Westpac’s decision was couched in the form of not lending for any coal mining of coal that is below a very high standard of purity (which apparently the Galilee basin doesn’t meet). That gives the Queensland Government a possible way out from under its support for the project. Anyone would think that Shorten, Queensland Labor and Westpac got together on the substance and timing.

    Provocative thought – perhaps they did! ! wouldn’t be surprised if business is starting to factor in working with a Shorten government and relationship-building is going on behind closed doors.

  14. ajm @ #510 Friday, April 28th, 2017 – 2:28 pm

    I think Westpac’s decision makes it almost impossible for the Federal Government to stump up the requested $1B. They would make themselves an absolute laughing stock. Canavan knows it too – that’s why he’s gone so over the top about it.

    If they DO come up with the money, Shorten and Labor will drive a Mack truck right over them.

    I reckon that this is all about he Government funding infrastructure to assist the interests of Rhinehart in the end.

  15. ajm @ #513 Friday, April 28th, 2017 – 2:35 pm

    Another thought. Westpac’s decision was couched in the form of not lending for any coal mining of coal that is below a very high standard of purity (which apparently the Galilee basin doesn’t meet). That gives the Queensland Government a possible way out from under its support for the project. Anyone would think that Shorten, Queensland Labor and Westpac got together on the substance and timing.

    Provocative thought – perhaps they did! ! wouldn’t be surprised if business is starting to factor in working with a Shorten government and relationship-building is going on behind closed doors.

    There’s also the owners of the Port of Newcastle frothing over sovereign risk.

  16. GG
    I’m sure Rhinehart’s interests are in the equation but they need cover to do that and if Adani can’t provide it, the Rhinehart will just have to miss out.

  17. zoomster @ #509 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 2:26 pm

    GG
    bemused’s refusal to specify who he is talking about is causing confusion. PBers are slightly paranoid, so they tend to assume that unspecified slurs are intended for them personally.
    Of course bemused should show a little more courage and ‘name names’. From what I can work out, however, this is actually impossible, because – despite the wording of his posts – they’re not actually addressed to anyone here at all.
    I have come to this conclusion after several attempts to get him to clarify exactly who he is talking about or to, but he doesn’t seem to really know himself.
    In the meantime, I provide a public service to PBers here by assuring them that he isn’t referring to them.

    Clearly you are aspiring for inclusion in my mental list.

  18. JTI has a look over Truffles’ “values” effort.

    Jack the Insider: Australian values — a user’s guide

    ……..our Prime Minister, resplendent in an electric blue suit, equivocated in response to what were some fairly mild inquiries on his thoughts on Australian-ness and what he considered might be Australian values.

    …………….The long answer is if you’re standing on a piece of dirt anywhere between the Indian and the Pacific Ocean somewhere south of Indonesia, you can take it for granted you’re Australian…………….I think we should leave at it that, really, and avoid veering into the perilous practice of stereotyping 25 million people into the space of three or four words.

    And when you’re asked about what Australian values are, the only correct answer is no one knows and it doesn’t matter anyway.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/blogs/jack-the-insider-australian-values-a-users-guide/news-story/1f4c9cde1a674d56d5141f2c1799158c

  19. ajm @ #516 Friday, April 28th, 2017 – 2:39 pm

    GG
    I’m sure Rhinehart’s interests are in the equation but they need cover to do that and if Adani can’t provide it, the Rhinehart will just have to miss out.

    She won’t be pleased then because once this gets to Parliament, then very close scrutiny of the deal will join the dots of who actually gains from the deal and who actually loses.

  20. poroti @ #517 Friday, April 28th, 2017 – 2:40 pm

    JTI has a look over Truffles’ “values” effort.

    Jack the Insider: Australian values — a user’s guide

    ……..our Prime Minister, resplendent in an electric blue suit, equivocated in response to what were some fairly mild inquiries on his thoughts on Australian-ness and what he considered might be Australian values.

    …………….The long answer is if you’re standing on a piece of dirt anywhere between the Indian and the Pacific Ocean somewhere south of Indonesia, you can take it for granted you’re Australian…………….I think we should leave at it that, really, and avoid veering into the perilous practice of stereotyping 25 million people into the space of three or four words.

    And when you’re asked about what Australian values are, the only correct answer is no one knows and it doesn’t matter anyway.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/blogs/jack-the-insider-australian-values-a-users-guide/news-story/1f4c9cde1a674d56d5141f2c1799158c

    If you have to explain a joke to someone, they still won’t get it!

  25. zoomster

    You might be interested in this Wikipedia definition of a troll. (Actually, they take a number of forms, but I think this one fits the bill on PB).

    In Internet slang, a troll is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people, by posting inflammatory … messages in an online community…with the intent of provoking readers into an emotional response

  28. The Coalition seems to be in free fall.

    Today we have Canavan telling Qld’ers that they should boycott Westpac because they won’t lend money to Adani (I assume the other banks have declined earlier).

    Yesterday we had Turnbull looking panicky while making the latest of his big announcements, only to find like all his big announcements, they are exposed as meaning nothing in less than 24 hours. Pathetic ‘Kick Me’ Frydenberg out this morning to say ‘Mal didn’t really mean to say that’.

    And then there’s Dutton who before his latest imbroglio on refugees has spent about a month critising big business because they are making their views known on carbon emissions trading, SSM and lots of other subjects. They clearly have the view that this government doesn’t have a clue where they’re heading.

    And then there’s Abbott …

  29. Re Socrates @1:54PM: It is beyond satire. What is the coalition motive for dealing with Adani? This is bordering on Royal Commission territory.

    I’d say the border’s been crossed and it’s disappearing in the rear view mirror. The whole relationship between the Coal-ition Government and Coal needs looking into, including the War on Renewables. Maybe it could be included in the terms of reference of a Royal Commission into future energy needs and climate change called by an incoming Labor Government.

  30. CTar1 @ #528 Friday, April 28th, 2017 – 3:01 pm

    The Coalition seems to be in free fall.

    Today we have Canavan telling Qld’ers that they should boycott Westpac because they won’t lend money to Adani (I assume the other banks have declined earlier).

    Yesterday we had Turnbull looking panicky while making the latest of his big announcements, only to find like all his big announcements, they are exposed as meaning nothing in less than 24 hours. Pathetic ‘Kick Me’ Frydenberg out this morning to say ‘Mal didn’t really mean to say that’.

    And then there’s Dutton who before his latest imbroglio on refugees has spent about a month critising big business because they are making their views known on carbon emissions trading, SSM and lots of other subjects. They clearly have the view that this government doesn’t have a clue where they’re heading.

    And then there’s Abbott …

    I’m hoping for the Headline for this debacle after Matt is sacked.
    “The dogs may bark, but the Canavan moves on!”

  31. Since zoomster is floundering around for something worthwhile to say, perhaps she can comment on this:

    Sophie Mirabella sues country paper, editor over claim she shoved Cathy McGowan

    Former Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella has launched a defamation action against a small Victorian country newspaper and a well-known former ABC journalist over a story claiming she shoved political rival Cathy McGowan at a photo opportunity during last year’s election.

    Ms Mirabella filed a writ in the Victorian County Court last week against Benalla Newspapers Pty Ltd, publisher of the Benalla Ensign, and former ABC presenter Libby Price, the paper’s editor.

    The action centres around a story the Ensign ran on page four in April last year under the headline “Awkward encounter”, which alleged that Ms Mirabella had “very publicly pushed” Ms McGowan at a photo opportunity.

    The story, which was also published online, came in the lead-up to last year’s federal election, in which both Ms Mirabella and Ms McGowan were competing for the regional seat of Indi.
    —
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sophie-mirabella-sues-country-paper-editor-over-claim-she-shoved-cathy-mcgowan-20170427-gvtmkj.html

    Has BK assured the puff adder he stands ready to provide character evidence?

  34. Simon @2:57PM: I am not familiar with him but just looked him up. He’s apparently following the common path from young ‘liberal’ to old conservative in reverse. He said things like “Bad government is the natural product of rule by those who believe government is bad”.

  36. To be fair to Mirabella, I think they’re both right.

    What I think happened is that both women moved towards the visiting dignitary at the same time, and that Mirabella (who admitted after the QandA incident that her vision isn’t the finest) was so single mindedly focussed on the Minister that she brushed McGowan out of the way without realising it.

    So McGowan was pushed, but it wasn’t intentional.

    *I have re enacted this scenario a couple of times for people, using them as props. (I need a life…)

    ** I came up with this scenario because I’ve done it myself a couple of times, with the difference that I realised what had happened almost immediately. Mirabella is more single-minded than I am.

  38. zoomster @ #536 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 3:12 pm

    To be fair to Mirabella, I think they’re both right.
    What I think happened is that both women moved towards the visiting dignitary at the same time, and that Mirabella (who admitted after the QandA incident that her vision isn’t the finest) was so single mindedly focussed on the Minister that she brushed McGowan out of the way without realising it.
    So McGowan was pushed, but it wasn’t intentional.
    *I have re enacted this scenario a couple of times for people, using them as props. (I need a life…)
    ** I came up with this scenario because I’ve done it myself a couple of times, with the difference that I realised what had happened almost immediately. Mirabella is more single-minded than I am.

    So it happened but was unintentional.
    Sophie may find it hard going to argue it didn’t happen.

  39. bemused @ #531 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 3:04 pm

    Since zoomster is floundering around for something worthwhile to say, perhaps she can comment on this:

    Sophie Mirabella sues country paper, editor over claim she shoved Cathy McGowan
    Former Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella has launched a defamation action against a small Victorian country newspaper and a well-known former ABC journalist over a story claiming she shoved political rival Cathy McGowan at a photo opportunity during last year’s election.
    Ms Mirabella filed a writ in the Victorian County Court last week against Benalla Newspapers Pty Ltd, publisher of the Benalla Ensign, and former ABC presenter Libby Price, the paper’s editor.
    The action centres around a story the Ensign ran on page four in April last year under the headline “Awkward encounter”, which alleged that Ms Mirabella had “very publicly pushed” Ms McGowan at a photo opportunity.
    The story, which was also published online, came in the lead-up to last year’s federal election, in which both Ms Mirabella and Ms McGowan were competing for the regional seat of Indi.
    —
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sophie-mirabella-sues-country-paper-editor-over-claim-she-shoved-cathy-mcgowan-20170427-gvtmkj.html

    Has BK assured the puff adder he stands ready to provide character evidence?

    BK is anxiously awaiting the phone call – anxious in many ways!

  40. An interesting contribution from Latika.

    Right-wing ideology in tatters as Turnbull joins peers intervening in market

    London: When Malcolm Turnbull dismayed east coast gas producers by imposing export controls, he joined a growing list of conservative leaders prepared to interfere with free markets in response to the populist backlash reshaping global politics.

    Despite the gas companies describing this week’s decision to tackle surging domestic gas prices with tough export controls as “alarming”, Turnbull was clear. “The market has not been working as it should,” he said on Thursday.

    While state intervention is hardly new, the increasing tendency for those on the conservative side of politics to react to consumer and political problems with the stick of regulation reflects an important shift in the way market-based solutions are viewed.

    “Sometime during the 1990s the centre-right stopped making the argument for the free market,” says John Roskam, who heads up the Institute of Public Affairs, a free market think tank based in Melbourne. “The centre-right was winning the economic debate until the global financial crisis (GFC) and in the mind of the public that argument has been lost.”
    —
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/rightwing-ideology-in-tatters-as-turnbull-joins-peers-intervening-in-market-20170427-gvu78z.html

  41. Steve777
    I have come across several of his articles and always found them interesting. I was wondering if his books are good enough to maintain my interest. Especially the one about Kansas.

    I was also wondering if he is related to Andre Gunder Frank who I have read a lot while at uni… but I am pretty sure they are not related.

  43. **the centre-right was winning the economic debate until the global financial crisis (GFC)**
    And growing inequality, and huge voter disenchantment with politics, and the crumbling of the 4th estate….
    So to reword Roskam; The centre right was winning the economic debate… until it lost.

  44. Ctar1
    “DG – Hadrian was Spanish.”

    Yes Hadrian came from an Italian family that settled in Roman Spain, and made a fortune.
    However, it’s not known exactly where Hadrian was born – might have been Spain or Italy. But he was certainly raised in Spain – and (to Italian ears) developed a ‘rustic’ Italo-Spanish accent, like his predecessor Trajan.

  45. Interesting to have one of the CPG explain why she couldn’t see what many of us could.

    Even though I wrote quite a bit about the extraordinary sexism Julia Gillard faced as prime minister, the truth is I didn’t do enough professionally to call it out.

    I still wrestle with this failure to call out sufficiently what was right in front of me; the “why” of that plagues me.

    It’s not that I couldn’t see it, or I was intent on somehow over-complicating it, or excusing it, or I was afraid or ambivalent about critiquing the gendered dimension of the response to Gillard.

    I think the main problem was I couldn’t quite believe it was happening.

    The sheer magnitude of bitch, witch and chaff bag took some time to settle on me.

    Before Gillard, I was naively of the view that Australian women were in striking distance of real equality; that while sexism certainly persisted, most men in powerful positions were capable of sharing power and tolerating dissent.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/apr/28/if-good-women-conform-and-gillard-was-a-witch-then-im-ready-for-a-fight

  46. Seems like the absolutely vile blatant plus coded crap directed at a female conservative politician has finally jolted Katharine Murphy into realising what the male power elite really think, as distinct from their political dissembling.

  47. ctar1 @ #528 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 3:01 pm

    The Coalition seems to be in free fall.

    …………………………..

    Yep.

    Scrott’s BS didn’t last until the weekend.

    The ‘Good Debt’ v ‘Bad Debt’ thingy is already getting yellow and/or red cards – plus a lecture on how debt is assessed and rated.

    Embarrassing –

    Moody’s and S&P caution Treasurer Scott Morrison on debt

    Any surge in government borrowing with so-called “good debt” could potentially weaken Australia’s hold on its AAA credit rating because the agencies gauging the nation’s budget credibility are more concerned about servicing costs than the quality of assets underpinning its debt.

    The judgment of both Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global is ultimately dependent on the overall government debt burden as well as its capacity to pay interest costs, according to the agency’s policy documents and a statement to AFR Weekend.

    Furthermore S&P warns in its documentation that it is particularly attuned to attempts by governments to shift debt “off budget” to flatter headline deficit numbers.

    For that reason, the agency states in its key ratings policy document that changes in the “general government debt stock” as a percentage of GDP is a better indicator of “fiscal performance” than the reported deficit.

    “In addition, the headline deficit is sometimes affected by political and other considerations, possibly creating strong incentives to move expenditures off budget,” S&P says in its formal global sovereign rating methodology, which was last updated in late 2014.

    The policy document underscores how Mr Morrison’s scope to ramp up borrowing for infrastructure remains heavily constrained by the need to retain the AAA rating.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/policy/budget/moodys-and-sp-caution-treasurer-scott-morrison-on-debt-20170428-gvuhko#

  49. So to reword Roskam; The centre right was winning the economic debate… until it lost.

    So to reword the reworded Roskam: The lunar right was getting away with bullshit until reality smacked everyone upside the head.

  50. lizzie, yes a good article by Murphy.

    Read more as a bunch of excuses and justifications to me.

    Oh I didn’t believe the gross sexism at the heart of the attacks on Gillard was real because it was so all pervasive and vile.

    Perceptive much? Useful skill for a political reporter to have. What will be next?

    “Oh I didn’t believe Abbott would be a disaster as PM, his stupidity and dishonesty was just too obvious”

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