Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

This week’s Essential Research offers results on Tony Abbott and 457 visas, along with yet another boring set of voting intention numbers.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average maintains its recent habit of shifting between 53-47 and 54-46, the latest instalment going from the latter to the former. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 37% and Labor is down one to 36%, with the Greens and One Nation steady at 10% and 8%, so that the result is in all respects identical to the week before last. The poll also finds 40% think Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, 17% that he should stay on the back bench, and another 17% that he should be given a position in the ministry. This is worse for him than when the same questions were posed in August last year, when the respective results were 37%, 21% and 25%. Other findings relate to the tightening of 457 visas: 16% said they went too far, 28% not far enough, and 39% that they were about right; 59% approved of allowing visa holders to apply for permanent residency, against 23% disapprove; 78% agreed that those applying for permanent residency should first be put on a probationary visa, against only 10% for disagree.

The Australian also had extra questions from Newspoll, which found that 70% favoured the government prioritising spending cuts over 20% for increasing taxes, but that only 30% favoured cuts to welfare payments with 61% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden · 4m4 minutes ago
    Wow. Turnbull government really going hard on Westpac ruling out Adani. Canavan urging Queenslanders to take mortgage business elsewhere

    Mark Ludlow‏
    @M_Ludlow

    Nth Australia Minister Matt Canavan says Westpac’s decision to rule out funding Adani coal project is “un-Australian” and anti-QLD! #auspol

  2. “Republicans in Congress don’t want the wall. And that is the most under-reported aspect of this whole skirmish,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI). “Republicans in the leadership of both chambers actually hate that idea. They know it’s dumb.”

    Along with the astronomical cost, building “The Wall” will require private land to be seized by the government. That’s anathema to Republicans.

  3. One for the legal people here.
    Would Anne Aly have a case to sue the RWNJ who claimed she had refused to place a wreath on ANZAC Day. It might be one way to shut the fake news down, if possible

  4. P1

    And the report finds that we will need to use more gas on the way there.

    Rubbish.
    The main point of the whole CSIRO/ Energy Networks Australia report is that renewables and batteries on a distributed network will drive the transition.
    The total amount of gas used will stay roughly constant, while continuing to fall as a percentage of total generation sources. This does not imply any significant new gas generation capacity.
    See Fig ii in the document.
    You’ve lost the argument, so why don’t you just go back to constructing new emoticons or whatever it is that you do, rather than flogging a dead horse.

  5. ACCC prosecuting Murray-Goulburn, but it’s too late for farmers who have already lost their herds, their farms, or their livelihood.

  6. Lizzie
    Friday, April 28, 2017 at 12:17 pm
    Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden · 4m4 minutes ago
    Wow. Turnbull government really going hard on Westpac ruling out Adani. Canavan urging Queenslanders to take mortgage business elsewhere

    A Federal minister advocates a boycott of a business….Almost unbelievable.

  7. I predict that gas prices to the consumer will be lowered at about the same rate that GDP will be increased by the Turnbull government Tax Cuts. 😆

  8. briefly @ #461 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 12:41 pm

    Lizzie
    Friday, April 28, 2017 at 12:17 pm
    Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden · 4m4 minutes ago
    Wow. Turnbull government really going hard on Westpac ruling out Adani. Canavan urging Queenslanders to take mortgage business elsewhere

    A Federal minister advocates a boycott of a business….Almost unbelievable.

    All the more so when that bank is simply falling into line with the other major banks.

    Canavan is just nuts and reminds me a bit of Latham.

  9. Bree
    Friday, April 28, 2017 at 12:21 pm

    Smith is a troll. Are you Smith? You employ similar tactics of smear; assume we are all as stupid as you. The putrefaction of Liberalism is well advanced.

  10. Bemused,
    It seems trolls like P1 took a holiday as did certain other prolific posters who don’t necessarily add much. All quantity vs quality.

    Moi?? Do tell. 🙂

  11. Briefly,
    Bree could be Kim Vuga in drag. However, she doesn’t even seem to have the rat cunning of Vuga, just seems like some poor, deluded acolyte of all that is held in high esteem in RWNJ Land.

  12. briefly @ #461 Friday, April 28th, 2017 – 12:41 pm

    Lizzie
    Friday, April 28, 2017 at 12:17 pm
    Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden · 4m4 minutes ago
    Wow. Turnbull government really going hard on Westpac ruling out Adani. Canavan urging Queenslanders to take mortgage business elsewhere

    A Federal minister advocates a boycott of a business….Almost unbelievable.

    A very Courageous announcement by Minister Canavan!
    “Sir Humphrey: If you want to be really sure that the Minister doesn’t accept it, you must say the decision is “courageous”.
    Bernard: And that’s worse than “controversial”?
    Sir Humphrey: Oh, yes! “Controversial” only means “this will lose you votes”. “Courageous” means “this will lose you the election”!”

  13. briefly @ #461 Friday, April 28th, 2017 – 12:41 pm

    A Federal minister advocates a boycott of a business….Almost unbelievable.

    A Federal Coalition minister, no less. They’re supposed to love businesses. Especially big, obscenely profitable businesses of questionable ethics like banks.

    Suddenly taking up an anti-business stance (especially on this particular issue) seems like a surefire vote-loser for them?

  14. Government ministers advising businesses on what they should choose to invest in? Shouldn’t the government stick to it’s knitting?

  15. The implication is that, with EIRE maintaining the EU’s freedom of movement, and with the Scots also wanting to stay in the EU and therefore also committing to the EU’s freedom of movement, the English will have to build a bloody great wall around Northern Ireland as well as a bloody great wall between England and Scotland.

  16. Boerwar @ #478 Friday, April 28th, 2017 – 1:12 pm

    The implication is that, with EIRE maintaining the EU’s freedom of movement, and with the Scots also wanting to stay in the EU and therefore also committing to the EU’s freedom of movement, the English will have to build a bloody great wall around Northern Ireland as well as a bloody great wall between England and Scotland.

    Hadrian tried that!

  17. C@

    Whenever bemused says something derogatory about posters without naming them, he means confessions.

    What’s happened is that it’s got to the point where he realises his focus on her is obsessive. He can’t stop himself from commenting about her, so he just doesn’t specify who he’s talking about.

  18. C@Tmomma
    Friday, April 28, 2017 at 12:54 pm

    “Bree” is a morsel, a petit four. It is intended to prompt the appetite. It is never the main course…of which the less said the better…

  19. Boerwar
    Friday, April 28, 2017 at 1:09 pm
    Briefly
    Looks like EIRE does not want the UK’s discards.

    Really, the whole thing reeks of obsessions with the past. They have fallen in love with the own selfies….have become a parody of self-determination.

  20. boerwar @ #478 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 1:12 pm

    The implication is that, with EIRE maintaining the EU’s freedom of movement, and with the Scots also wanting to stay in the EU and therefore also committing to the EU’s freedom of movement, the English will have to build a bloody great wall around Northern Ireland as well as a bloody great wall between England and Scotland.

    Where’s Hadrian now that he’s needed.

    Oh, that’s right he was an “Eytie” so he wouldn’t be welcome in post-Brexit England.

    Perhaps Trump will have some bricks left over from the wall he’s building. I’m sure he could make a nice profit out of that.

  21. Government ministers advising businesses on what they should choose to invest in?

    FredNK alluded to the federal government falling into a Khemlani trap with it’s decision to fund the Adani Mine, but it seems to me that the Turnbull government are coming to recognise the mad, bad days of the Whitlam government, not in a good way, but when they were forced into a corner by circumstances and tried to find a way out. Not only that but that they have become hostage to some very ideologically-driven, out there Ministers. Especially in the Nationals/LNP camp, such as Canavan, Joyce and Nash. They are the tail wagging the Turnbull dog of a government.

    However, in another way they are resembling the worst Protectionist/Nationalist/Government Interventionist governments. Intervening in the Energy Market, considering a Big Pipeline from North or West to East, when Woodside’s CEO said what would be saner, and cheaper, would be the construction of a Regasification Plant on the Eastern seabord.

    Then there’s Canavan directing that Westpac give loans to favoured government intiatives.

    It all just seems to be gaining momentum into the sort of death spiral that took the Whitlam government down.

    And like Whitlam, Turnbull thinks he is the smartest guy in the room and will prevail. 🙂

  22. zoom,
    What’s happened is that it’s got to the point where he realises his focus on her is obsessive. He can’t stop himself from commenting about her, so he just doesn’t specify who he’s talking about.

    Ah… 🙂

  23. Adrian
    Friday, April 28, 2017 at 12:44 pm
    Canavan is a hard core ideologue with an intellect to match.

    He’s an escapee from the Productivity Commission. Really, if he is typical of their thinkers, the PC should be abolished.

  24. “He’s an escapee from the Productivity Commission. Really, if he is typical of their thinkers, the PC should be abolished.”
    The Productivity Commission was the brainchild of Costello… and I have questioned what it achieves before. the money would be better off going to a couple of decent Uni economics programs. But then the government could not direct it to its whims.

    As for Canavan, not so much an ideaolgue as idea-less.

  25. zoomster @ #480 Friday, April 28, 2017 at 1:14 pm

    C@
    Whenever bemused says something derogatory about posters without naming them, he means confessions.
    What’s happened is that it’s got to the point where he realises his focus on her is obsessive. He can’t stop himself from commenting about her, so he just doesn’t specify who he’s talking about.

    You are clearly innumerate. I used the plural form and confessions is an individual.
    It is you and confessions who keep going on about my supposed ‘obsession’ when I rarely respond to her.
    Get over it.

  26. GG
    “If Turnbull is the smartest guy in the room, he’s in the loo!”
    He could be in any number of rooms… Cabinet, Barnaby’ office, Abbott’s office, the Liberal Party Room. He could even be in the White House.

  27. My best advice is to ignore bemused. He’s clearly trolling and looking for attention. It will send him bonkers.

  28. Socrates @ #493 Friday, April 28th, 2017 – 1:47 pm

    GG
    “If Turnbull is the smartest guy in the room, he’s in the loo!”
    He could be in any number of rooms… Cabinet, Barnaby’ office, Abbott’s office, the Liberal Party Room. He could even be in the White House.

    Yeah, but in those other places it is a draw and they could always be interrupted by the tea lady and that would change the dynamics.

  29. The Adani story is remarkable. So out of four banks that have given million dollar housing loans to anyone in Sydney with a pin number, none of them will put money into Adani? Yet Canavan and Morrison are happy to dump a billion of taxpayers cash into Adani, while it is being investigated for fraud and bribery in India!!
    http://www.indiasamvad.co.in/investigation/customs-boss-who-exposed-5500-cr-scam-against-adani-group-shunted-another-officer-%E2%80%98fixed%E2%80%99-in-bribery-scandal-7365
    It is beyond satire. What is the coalition motive for dealing with Adani? This is bordering on Royal Commission territory.

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