Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest result from Newspoll lands slightly at the upper end of the government’s recent form.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest result from Newspoll records Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, down from 53-47 in the last poll (which was three weeks ago rather than the usual two, owing to Easter). Labor and the Greens are both down a point on the primary vote, to 35% and 9%, with the Coalition and One Nation steady on 36% and 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 32% and down two on disapproval to 57%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 33% and down one to 53%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 41-32 to 42-33.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,209 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. zoomster @ #938 Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 11:38 am

    ‘We are faced today with a question that has never before arisen in our history. From January 1788, when the First Fleet sailed into Botany Bay, to 2008, during the Global Financial Crisis, we’ve had first Britain and then the USA as both trading partner and strategic ally.’
    Well, this is bollocks to start with – between 1974 and 2005 Japan was our largest trading partner.
    If we’re purely talking exports —
    ‘Australia’s largest merchandise export market remained the United Kingdom up to 1965-66. Japan became the largest market in 1966-67, and remained so until the late 2000s when it was overtaken by China.’
    The USA was our most important market for one year only, 1941-2.
    http://dfat.gov.au/about-us/publications/Documents/australias-trade-since-federation.pdf
    The rest of the article seems to be a series of ‘what ifs’ with very little real evidence to back any of them – e.g ‘China may decide to “kill the chicken to scare the monkey” – sink an Australian vessel to warn off the United States Navy’.
    Australia seems to be doing what Australia has done best throughout its history – gradually switching its alliance from one major to another without upsetting either.

    I can’t see an alliance with China replacing the alliance with the US anytime soon. Notwithstanding Trump’s antics.

  2. GG – So many untruths and so little time. I would much rather go into the garden and watch a butterfly or stare at a raindrop meandering down a window, or listen to my 4yo tell me why she more than I do than spend time on PB proving a point, defending a stance, correcting a wrong, winning an argument or being offended.

    But I am from the apathetic slacker generation.

  3. Greensborough Growler,
    Sometimes you just have to go to bed and accept that someone, somewhere posted something that was untrue on PB.

    As I said before, it’s not that but the torrent of abuse that accompanies the pointing out of outrageous assertions or falsehoods(proven with facts). I don’t need it, no one does, and PB has been a much more civil place since it ceased happening.

  4. Cat

    I said could not would. If Ghichui is so in tune with those policies she would have been happy with the merger. People can and do change minds. With someone like the ACl people when they change their minds they will be just as zealous on the new view as they used to be on the old.

    Its not likely on ME. However on environment unions etc could be very interesting change to numbers if she really puts family first

  5. guytaur Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 11:39 am
    The big thing about Flynn is that it raises questions on the competency of VP Pence. He was in charge of the Transition team when Flynn was appointed as NSC advisor. Thus the buck stops with him on getting security clearance and vetting candidates as well as Trump.

    So not only should Trump go but so should Pence. A Paul Ryan Presidency won’t be popular but at least it would be competent.

    *******************************************
    There was some report last week or so, Guytaur – regarding Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell being on tape discussing ‘laundering’ of funds into the campaign ….. so maybe he is on the hit list ? …….there is so much innuendo and speculation – its impossible to know exactly who is a goodie or a baddie ( as our own Abbott would say )

    BREAKING: Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell Busted Working With Russia (DETAILS)

    http://bipartisanreport.com/2017/04/18/breaking-paul-ryan-and-mitch-mcconnell-busted-working-with-russia-details/

  6. PR

    Thats why I was specific about the Flynn part. Thats based on what has been said in public by Congressmen from both sides of the aisle on one of the committee doing the investigating.

  7. @ Guytaur – I’d lower your expectations.

    Yes, she will be more difficult to negotiate with than Bob Day was. But Day was a more faithful voter than some in the Coalition so that doesn’t mean much (disclaimer, probably not literally true, cbf Googling).

    But don’t expect her to change her tune and suddenly care about people. She will continue to oppose welfare, and have her policies guided by her religious views.

  8. Liberal Party civil war:

    Potential new challenges

    Liberal insiders say there is a real prospect of tit-for-tat preselection challenges between the conservative and moderate wings of the Liberal Party — and not just in Victoria.

    Mr Abbott is facing a possible challenge in his Sydney seat of Warringah and the former Prime Minister’s staunch ally Kevin Andrews will likely face a fight for his safe Victorian seat of Menzies, ironically once touted as a seat fit for Ms Credlin.

    “I think that the suggestion that Kelly O’Dwyer might be challenged by Tony Abbott’s former chief of staff, Peter Credlin, might have broader implications which goes like this: that if someone’s going to challenge Tony Abbott’s preselection in Warringah, then there might be a whole bunch of counter challenges against Turnbull supporters,” Mr Mayne said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-24/push-to-unseat-kelly-odwyer-while-on-maternity-leave/8468322

  9. Trump Humiliated Again After Failed Trade Battle With Mexico Costs U.S. $163 Million

    That’s right: Trump just lost a trade battle with Mexico – over tuna fish.

    According to a Tuesday report from CNN, the president was just handed another humiliating defeat. The latest Trump loss will cost the U.S. $163 million a year in the form of sanctions imposed by the World Trade Organization.

    More from CNN:

    Mexico and the US have fought for years over tuna. The US insists that any Mexican tuna sold in the US must be “dolphin safe,” meaning dolphins weren’t killed by tuna fisherman, which was once common. Mexico says its fisherman play by the rules. The US government disagrees.

    On Tuesday, the World Trade Organization ruled in Mexico’s favor, allowing it to impose trade sanctions worth $163 million a year against the US. The WTO says that’s how much money Mexico has lost from the US unfairly penalizing Mexican tuna.

    He set up astronomical expectations, and he’s epically failing to meet them.

    While there are very few, if any, redeeming qualities about this administration, it’s a beautiful thing to watch the ridiculous rhetoric of his campaign catch up with the realities of, you know, actually running the country.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/25/trump-humiliated-u-s-loses-trade-battle-mexico.html

  10. Guytaur,
    I agree on the Environment and Unions, however, if you really believe in a higher being then the environment is in their hands, not human hands to change.

  11. Phoenix red…

    The claims about Ryan and McConnell sound like pure disinformation, doubtless generated by others also accused of collaboration with Russia.

    It beggars belief that either would wittingly accept foreign donations, knowing that would be illegal and be discovered….

  12. Cat

    It all comes down to why she chose not to join the Family First Bernadi merger.

    Don’t worry I am not having high expectations of a major change away from religion. I do however see lots of difficulty for the LNP coming. Of course thats nothing new really as you tweeted so well its not changing much in politics really. So not the big news the media is making out other than showing the divide is increasing on the right.

  13. greensborough growler @ #961 Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 12:11 pm

    bemused @ #955 Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 – 12:05 pm

    greensborough growler @ #942 Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 11:40 am

    Don’ worry bemused. A response full of nothing from you is hardly anything I haven’t seen before.

    And ‘nothing’ is more than you warrant.

    Perhaps. But, the good news is that I inspire you to write endless screeds of nihilistc nothingness and you have become so good at it.

    Your literary criticism is as off the mark as your other bizarre thoughts.

  14. Just when you think they have reached peak low

    adamgartrell: Libs in Vic have told @samanthamaiden they don’t like the way Kelly O’Dwyer “holds her baby like a Gypsy” – ie, ready to steal your wallet

  15. briefly Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 12:15 pm
    Phoenix red…
    The claims about Ryan and McConnell sound like pure disinformation, doubtless generated by others also accused of collaboration with Russia.

    It beggars belief that either would wittingly accept foreign donations, knowing that would be illegal and be discovered….

    **********************************************

    I guess, did they or didn’t they ???? – and is the crux of the whole Russian collusion/funding matter that could be equally applied to a whole multitude of characters – Flynn, Stone, Carter Page ……… all the way up to Trump himself

    …… only time will tell *** who *** did what …..

  16. Talking about sweeping stuff under the carpet, Dutton’s ongoing travails with the truth on Manus are being completely ignored by Mr Murdoch’s minions.
    Dutton’s immediate problems appear to be:
    1. He has stated that there is an ongoing investigation by the police. The police deny this. Further, the police deny that Dutton and/or the Department have even made a referral in relation to Dutton’s boy story.
    2. He has stated that his story has not changed ‘a bit’. It has. By more than a bit.
    3. He has stated that the information he has is ‘classified’. If so, he controls the classification. He can unclassify it any time he wants to.
    4. There are apparently two potential triggers for the hail of bullets fired in the general direction of refugees, guards and contractors. The first is the incident purported by Dutton. Basically, Dutton’s scenario appears to be that the refugees got what they deserved because they were paedophiles. If this version has any basis of fact the problem for Dutton is that, if it did happen, it happened a fortnight before the fusillade. The second potential incident happened during a game of footy immediately before the fusillade.
    5. This may turn out to be the last in a rather long line of incidents in which the Department and/or Dutton have proven to be lying through their teeth.

  17. P….if, as is likely, the accusations against Ryan and McConnell are baseless and go nowhere, similar accusations against others will also likely be discounted…This smells like a ruse to me…

  18. Guytaur
    “Bullying so natural for the LNP”

    I thought the LNP wanted more free speech. I guess this is selective (i.e., the right to free speech is reserved for privileged white blokes).

  19. Boerwar @ #972 Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 – 12:37 pm

    Talking about sweeping stuff under the carpet, Dutton’s ongoing travails with the truth on Manus are being completely ignored by Mr Murdoch’s minions.
    Dutton’s immediate problems appear to be:
    1. He has stated that there is an ongoing investigation by the police. The police deny this. Further, the police deny that Dutton and/or the Department have even made a referral in relation to Dutton’s boy story.
    2. He has stated that his story has not changed ‘a bit’. It has. By more than a bit.
    3. He has stated that the information he has is ‘classified’. If so, he controls the classification. He can unclassify it any time he wants to.
    4. There are apparently two potential triggers for the hail of bullets fired in the general direction of refugees, guards and contractors. The first is the incident purported by Dutton. Basically, Dutton’s scenario appears to be that the refugees got what they deserved because they were paedophiles. If this version has any basis of fact the problem for Dutton is that, if it did happen, it happened a fortnight before the fusillade. The second potential incident happened during a game of footy immediately before the fusillade.
    5. This may turn out to be the last in a rather long line of incidents in which the Department and/or Dutton have proven to be lying through their teeth.

    BW,

    I doubt it will be the last!

  20. Boer…lying about refugees is normal practice for Dutton. For him, it’s already mission accomplished. He has further vilified the outcasts and tainted anyone who might defend them.

    He is an utterly succesful LNP camp guard.

  21. bemused

    ‘I can’t see an alliance with China replacing the alliance with the US anytime soon. ‘

    Hence my use of the word ‘gradually’.

  22. Please could someone explain this to me? I’m obviously ignorant about how ‘decent white folks’ hold their babies.

    adamgartrell: Libs in Vic have told @samanthamaiden they don’t like the way Kelly O’Dwyer “holds her baby like a Gypsy” – ie, ready to steal your wallet

  23. zoomster @ #979 Wednesday, April 26, 2017 at 12:58 pm

    bemused
    ‘I can’t see an alliance with China replacing the alliance with the US anytime soon. ‘
    Hence my use of the word ‘gradually’.

    Gradually is a very imprecise term. What sort of a time horizon did you have in mind? Years, decades, centuries?
    The great sticking point at present is vastly different political systems. Should that ever change, then alliances could similarly shift and quite rapidly. Given the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union, this could catch us by surprise.

  24. Yassmin had a valid point. It’s a pity she withdrew.

    Notably, Joyce reduces his argument to “culture”. One Culture does not permit dissent. On the contrary, it demands submission.

  25. Don’t know whether Peter Dutton is an orchid fancier, but does anyone else see the resemblence between him and Peter McReedy character, the Norsefire party boss in the 2005 movie “V fir Vendetta” (played by Tim Piggot-Smith)?

  26. The usual self-promoters assert that Yassmin was putting Manus etc ahead of Anzac without any basis but her precise point was not clearly expressed.

  27. lizzie, if it is coming from the blue ribbon vic lib set, then I assume they are concerned she is holding it without the use of the expected baby carrier – ie, a nanny.

    When they find out she her own breasts to feed the thing they will go apoplectic. Oh, the shame of it all!

  28. On Yassmin

    This concocted mass debate, like those before it and those to come (Newspoll-permitting), shows that we, as a nation, have no bloody idea about our values. Indeed, those who beat their chests the most tend to know the least. The irony of the most nationalistic papers is that they are almost exclusively owned by a man who gave up his Australian citizenship to become an American. Did he, by doing so, increase the average IQ of both our respective nations? Who knows?

    IRFAN YUSUF
    Lawyer, author and commentator

  29. Shellbell, I think the point is that ANZAC can only be used to validate the Official Line. The LNP have re-politicised the commemoration of loss. They will discredit the whole thing.

  30. John Wren‏ @JohnWren1950 · 6m6 minutes ago

    and by the way RWNJs, the photo of @yassmin_a in @dailytelegraph with 2 finger salute was taken in 2015. Nothing to do with #ANZAC. #auspol

  31. Lizzie
    “Please could someone explain this to me? I’m obviously ignorant about how ‘decent white folks’ hold their babies.”

    They hand them over to nannies.

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