Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

As Labor picks up a point, Essential Research finds Nick Xenophon, Derryn Hinch and Jacqui Lambie to be more popular than Pauline Hanson, David Leyonhjelm and Cory Bernardi.

Labor picks up a point in this week’s reading of Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average, which did not allow the Easter long weekend to interrupt its schedule. The major parties exchange a point on the primary vote, with Labor up to 37% and the Coalition down to 36%, while the Greens and One Nation hold steady at 10% and 8% respectively.

Also included are approving ratings for cross-benchers Senators, which I like to think they asked because I suggested it to them a few weeks ago, and it’s turned up the finding I was fishing for when I did: namely, that Jacqui Lambie, at 32% approval and 30% disapproval, is more popular than the overrated Pauline Hanson, at 32% and 48%. Still less popular are David Leyonhjelm, with 9% approval, 28% disapproval and a forbiddingly high “don’t know about them”, and Cory Bernardi, whose respective numbers are 10%, 34% and 41% (“not sure” accounts for the balance). At the top of the charts is Nick Xenophon, at 35% approval and 25% disapproval, followed by Derryn Hinch at 35% and 27%.

The poll also records 38% support for allowing superannuation to be accessible when buying a home, with 50% opposed, and has a suite of questions on the American intervention in Syria: 41% approve of last week’s bombing with 36% opposed; 37% say they would support US ground troops being sent, with 39% opposed; and 31% saying they would approve of an Australian contribution, with 50% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,057 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 18 of 22
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  1. [Anyway, I’d appreciate an answer to one of the questions I raised in my original post: How much are taxes going to have to rise to pay for the increase in the number of people receiving Newstart?]
    I’m not sure Treasury are even modelling this expected trend. If one starts with the pretty extreme distribution of wealth / inequality that the world does start with and you actually get significant under employed / unemployed poor, I think something big probably happens …

  4. Good evening all,

    Looks like there is a bit of argy bargy in Victorian liberal land. Apparently it is not just the NSW branch that is engaged in full on factional war.

    Kelly ‘ ODwyer is in the middle of a factional battle with Peta Credlin mentioned in despatches.

    The story should be up on Newscorp by now.

    Cheers.

  5. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/millionaires-try-to-draft-peta-credlin-to-unseat-higgins-mp-kelly-odwyer/news-story/d6b1ee15792c74f1a4c090789f7f5fb4 paywalled, google the URL for full story

    Millionaires trying to draft Peta Credlin to unseat Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer
    JAMES CAMPBELL and ROB HARRIS, Herald Sun
    23 minutes ago

    DISGRUNTLED millionaires are attempting to draft Peta Credlin to unseat federal Cabinet minister Kelly O’Dwyer in the blue-ribbon seat of Higgins.

    A powerful group of local Liberals want Tony Abbott’s former chief of staff to challenge Ms O’Dwyer in retribution for her role in an unpopular tax on their superannuation savings. When asked by the Herald Sun about the plan on Friday, Ms Credlin would only say: “I have not been formally approached to run for Higgins”.

    It’s understood the group of ­current and former Liberal branch members have made an unofficial approach and are willing to bankroll a challenge to the Revenue and ­Financial Services Minister because of their fury over the Turnbull ­Government’s changes to super.

  6. Dan G:

    Unfortunately for Jules he took the drama route, meaning his exit from the embassy is a mite difficult if the US do issue warrants for his arrest. He should’ve face the Swedish music years ago, most esp when the US made it clear they weren’t interested in him.

  7. poroti,
    There was a comment I read in the early 1980s that has always stuck with me. Computers were just starting to enter the workplace and fears of automation was a topic of the day . The comment by some computer expert at the time was that people will only be replaced in their jobs where people are being employed as robots.

    So it’s all C3PO and R2D2’s fault!?! 🙂

  8. Confessions,
    How hilarious! Assange pitches the mother of all drama, holes himself up for years in the Ecuadorean embassy in the UK supposedly scared out of his mind that Obama’s administration would come after him under cover of his extradition to Sweden on rape charges, bends over for the Russians only to see Trump elected, and in return Trump’s mob come after him.

    Karma’s a bitch, eh? 🙂

  12. Poroti
    Friday, April 21, 2017 at 7:12 pm
    Mari
    Rowe on a roll at the mo !!!
    Sorry was packing
    He sure is had another look I think could be Scottie in the back seat

  13. confessions @ #848 Friday, April 21st, 2017 – 8:39 pm

    bends over for the Russians only to see Trump elected

    I question this aspect of the phrasing. I think it’s more of he bent over for the Russians and Trump together, for the express purpose of seeing Trump elected. I think he knew exactly what he was doing, and what the goal was, and that he did it with the expectation (and perhaps even on the back of a promise) that a Trump administration would let him off the hook.

    Quid pro quo.

  15. I thought the most revealing part of the Credlin for Higgins story was this
    ‘and are willing to bankroll a challenge to the Revenue and ­Financial Services Minister because of their fury over the Turnbull ­Government’s changes to super.’

    Those super changes are the only worthwhile thing this government has done.

    Have I missed anything? Has Turnbull done anything else in the national interest?

  16. P
    I believe strongly in vision statements just like that.
    To do big things you need to think big.
    EnZedders are already world leaders in ridding islands of pest assemblages completely.
    I don’t think they will get all of the way with all pests.
    There are available technologies.
    For example, it is possible to add a species’ reproductive protein to a species-specific virus such that the own immune system of the individuals of the species renders the species infertile.
    The technical problem is not to achieve this in the lab.
    The technical problem is that the virus might just shape shift and jump species (as they are wont to do from time to time) and… er
    Anyway, who knows what additional tools will be added to the toolkit.
    Good on the En Zedders, I say.
    The Australian way, in contrast, is to cull part of a species some of the time. This just leads to endless rounds of colossal money wastage with absolutely no lasting environmental benefit.

  17. briefly @ #748 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 6:40 pm

    Grimace….
    Cheers…I’m occasionally also bemused by what I hear or see
    I think the mood in WA is similar to the early 1980s, when a decrepit State Liberal government was overwhelmingly rejected by the electorate and then WA voters helped remove an ineffectual, self-absorbed and incompetent Federal Liberal Government. In 1983, WA recorded one of its very few pro-Labor 2PP majorities. The same thing is possible whenever the next Federal election is held. The electorate is quite disenchanted with the Liberal Party, who have repeatedly failed WA’s interests and continue to do so. I think voters were close to moving this way in 2016 and were partly checked by the Lib campaign effort. Next time, nothing will stop the migration from Liberal to Labor, leading to Labor gains in seats all around the State.

    I agree the Federal government has neglected WA. Labor’s problem is what to do about it. Giving more money to WA via changes to the GST carve up means less money for someone else, and there are a lot more marginal seats on the east coast than there are on the west coast.

  21. boerwar @ #831 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 8:09 pm

    I do hope there is some sort of space between the transport engineers who design Canberra’s roads and the transport engineers who are over seeing the slaughter of trees as a preliminary to the Great Light Rail thingie.
    Yesterday morning I drove north along Northborne Road. It is, I believe, the city’s main transport artery.
    I came to a vast roundabout which had, for the past several years, been the scene of huge earthworks and roadworks and the like.
    It took me two sets of lights to get into and then out of the roundabout. (Of course both sets were red at arrival.)
    Is there anywhere else on earth that roundabouts have traffic lights, let alone multiple traffic lights?
    The net result is, of course, that it now takes at least three times as long to move along that particular bit of the City’s main exit artery.

    There are two roundabouts in WA that can think of which have traffic lights.

  22. HEAR YE HEAR YE
    SA CHAPTER KNEES UP
    SAT 06 MAY 2017
    in Kapunda SA.
    To get your invitations email me via
    tuckerboxdog@hmamail.com
    and you will be sent all the details.
    Remember, what happens in Kapunda stays in Kapunda
    Cheers
    Puffytmd.

  23. Can anyone confirm that O’Dwyer recently gave birth?

    If that is true then it indicates how nasty hings have become in the Liberal Party, for this leak to come out now. Argy-bargy would be an inadequate euphemism.

  24. AR:

    I hear you and can appreciate that POV. Trying to give the man some benefit of the doubt even though that doesn’t jive with me.

    Hard to see a way out of this for Assange if the US proceed with a warrant. Up until now he’s been able to pull his drama queen antics, but all reports would suggest that shit is about to get real for him.

  26. leroy lynch @ #855 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 8:51 pm

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/millionaires-try-to-draft-peta-credlin-to-unseat-higgins-mp-kelly-odwyer/news-story/d6b1ee15792c74f1a4c090789f7f5fb4 paywalled, google the URL for full story
    Millionaires trying to draft Peta Credlin to unseat Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer
    JAMES CAMPBELL and ROB HARRIS, Herald Sun
    23 minutes ago
    DISGRUNTLED millionaires are attempting to draft Peta Credlin to unseat federal Cabinet minister Kelly O’Dwyer in the blue-ribbon seat of Higgins.
    A powerful group of local Liberals want Tony Abbott’s former chief of staff to challenge Ms O’Dwyer in retribution for her role in an unpopular tax on their superannuation savings. When asked by the Herald Sun about the plan on Friday, Ms Credlin would only say: “I have not been formally approached to run for Higgins”.
    It’s understood the group of ­current and former Liberal branch members have made an unofficial approach and are willing to bankroll a challenge to the Revenue and ­Financial Services Minister because of their fury over the Turnbull ­Government’s changes to super.

    The Liberals are 6 points down in Bludgertrack, the L/NP are near broke, Mal has started a war with the unions who have promised Your Rights at Work mk2 in retalliation, Getup! have emerged as a left win campaign force, internal cohesion in the L/NP has been stretched to breaking point, there are several right wing splinter groups threatening to split the conservative vote and now the L/NP are burning what little finances they have left fighting over a safe Liberal seat.

    Unbelievable.

  30. john reidy @ #865 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 9:28 pm

    I thought the most revealing part of the Credlin for Higgins story was this
    ‘and are willing to bankroll a challenge to the Revenue and ­Financial Services Minister because of their fury over the Turnbull ­Government’s changes to super.’
    Those super changes are the only worthwhile thing this government has done.
    Have I missed anything? Has Turnbull done anything else in the national interest?

    He’s started so many political fights that couldn’t possibly win and consequently has turned the next election into a turkey shoot for the Labor party. On current trajectory the Labor party’s seat count will have a 1 in front it it.

  31. Is there anywhere else on earth that roundabouts have traffic lights, let alone multiple traffic lights?
    The net result is, of course, that it now takes at least three times as long to move along that particular bit of the City’s main exit artery.

    The UK is replete with them, in all their resplendent glory.

    Coming off the M3 into London from Hants along the A316 (Twickenham Rd, et al.) is a grand tour of the bastards.

  32. DQ:

    Yep absolutely. . I imagine the decision to replace O’Dwyer with another woman was a strategic one. Imagine if the challenger gunning for her was a male, not a good look.

  33. Socrates
    If you are around you might be interested in this story.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/box-hill-high-whitehorse-council-plan-for-buildings-up-to-30-storeys-20170421-gvpmxc.html

    Box Hill is a suburb growing up quickly, literally.

    The 36-storey Whitehorse Towers apartments and hotel is almost complete but, if a plan to be put to the state government by Whitehorse Council is anything to go by, locals haven’t seen anything yet.

    The proposal, to go before a panel of experts in June ahead of presentation to the planning minister, puts forward preferred building heights of up to 30 storeys in the popular retail, health and office precinct.

    Currently there is little guidance on the height limits that the council wants to built in the area.

    The council’s plan, which does not ask for mandatory height limits, proposes staggering buildings down from the peaks of between 20 and 30 levels, to eight levels closer to existing low-rise housing.

    Whitehorse mayor Denise Massoud said Box Hill had been declared Melbourne’s second CBD by the state government.

    Designated a metropolitan activity centre under the government’s Plan Melbourne strategy, Box Hill has grown from 15,600 residents in 2003 to almost 21,000 last year. This slow-but-steady growth has outstripped wider Melbourne’s growth.
    —

    Box Hill is in the Chisholm electorate which Labor lost at the last Federal Election after the retirement of Anna Burke.

    I can see several other suburbs heading in the same direction although maybe not to the same extent. Glen Waverley now has a 11 story building with shops and offices on the first 2 and apartments above. A 15 story building has been approved and will probably be similar in usage. I see more inevitably on the way.

    Suburbs like Essendon, Doncaster and Dandenong spring to mind and probably one or more out in the Western Suburbs.

    I just hope it is all accompanied by proper planning and in particular public transport.

  34. Since Credlin started writing in News Limited papers she has quietly built up a following. I have no doubt she is working towards a lower house seat. Her columns are syndicated in the Brisbane Sunday Mail, and on a recent trip there elderly family members (of the conservative ilk) were adamant she was the future of the Liberal Party.

    But I am unconvinced. Like most aspiring Liberals she suffers from an over-exuberant and unwarranted ego. Credlin is not quite as smart as she thinks she is. And knowing that she will not be willing to plough away in a junior or assistant shadow ministry, her entry into the Liberal caucus will no doubt be tumultuous.

    I can foresee her wanting to be the one who questions Prime Minister Shorten regularly and have her face in front of the cameras. On the other hand, safe seats like Higgins and their underperforming Liberal MPs might be the only ones left. So Credlin may have a rails run to shadow cabinet or leadership if that is the case.

    At any rate, this spells more bad news for the Liberal Party. So I will these watching these developments keenly.

  35. If millionaire Superannuants have enough money left after taking out living expenses to fund a political campaign, then they still have too much money and so the bastards should be taxed more until the bloody pips squeak!

  36. More bleats about the 457 changes on Lateline.
    But yet again it is all at the top end of the market where there are genuinely high level skills in limited supply and entry should be facilitated. It is an entirely different matter elsewhere in the employment market where there is no shortage of competent Australians available to fill jobs.

  38. bemused

    Box Hill is brilliant when it comes to public transport. My sons chose to live there for that reason, and now about eight of their friends have followed their example.

  39. zoomster @ #888 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 10:37 pm

    bemused
    Box Hill is brilliant when it comes to public transport. My sons chose to live there for that reason, and now about eight of their friends have followed their example.

    Very congested roads, mostly quite narrow.
    Good bus terminal with many services but running on those inadequate roads.
    Rail service OK for now but approaching capacity and needing extra tracks.
    Tram to the city is just too slow but OK if travelling to intermediate points.

  40. In today’s episodes of “Polly’s in the Wild” I can report a sighting of Julie Bishop in Sydney. (For some strange reason JBish is about the only polly I spot in Sydney).

    I’ve previously (forced myself not to deliberately) run into J Bish at the Shangri-La Hotel and it seems that must be her preferred stay when not slumming it outside of the 20xx postcodes.

    On this occasion she was just around the corner from the Shangri-la in Essex St, and I have to report our wonderfully well groomed gel looked like she was being exceptionally helpful to some lost lasses on the street. It looked very much as though she had the phone out with the google maps on helping to direct the ladies in question to wherever it was they were going (no doubt a pub being as it was in The Rocks).

    Wouldn’t vote for her in a pink fit, and perhaps the ladies recognised her and claimed to be Libs, but kudos to the Foreign Minister for being out on the street and taking the time to interact with the hoi polloi without so much as a camera or a security detachment within coo-ee. That’s the kind of thing I love about Australia.

  41. bemused

    I use the public transport in Box Hill regularly, and my sons use it daily.

    The buses are well routed and run regularly, and I’ve never encountered problems with rail – regular services and relatively uncrowded.

    As I said, with all of Melbourne to chose from, my sons’ friends – who go to Universities scattered across Melbourne – have chosen Box Hill, because it is convenient for all of them.

    Of course it could be better, but you can say that of any public transport system.

  42. zoomster @ #891 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 10:54 pm

    bemused
    I use the public transport in Box Hill regularly, and my sons use it daily.
    The buses are well routed and run regularly, and I’ve never encountered problems with rail – regular services and relatively uncrowded.
    As I said, with all of Melbourne to chose from, my sons’ friends – who go to Universities scattered across Melbourne – have chosen Box Hill, because it is convenient for all of them.
    Of course it could be better, but you can say that of any public transport system.

    Did you catch any peak hour trains? I doubt it.
    There is increasing patronage and population growth around Box Hill and further out. It takes time to build things so the time to start is now to cope with future demand.
    Labor State Govts have done some excellent work removing level crossings on that line which should allow more trains per hour during peaks. But I think tracks capacity will start to bite.
    I am more an enthusiast than someone with qualifications in this area, but I compare with other systems I know such as Sydney, and I see Melbourne trying to make do with 2 or 3 tracks where Sydney would have 4 which permits express trains in both directions.

    But there are worse lines than the Belgrave and Lilydale lines which run through Box Hill.

    You did not comment on the trams or roads.

    The tram is what it is and I can’t see any scope for improvements.

    Whitehorse Road narrows on the city side of Box Hill so if you want a reasonable trip to the city, you drive several Km north to get on to the Easter Freeway, or even further South to get onto the Monash Freeway. Box Hill is really not well served by roads at all, but rather than go down the path of building roads, I would prefer to see more investment in public transport to limit traffic.

    Your sons and their mates probably also enjoyed Box Hill Market and the many restaurants.

  43. bemused

    No, haven’t used the trams – neither (apparently) have my sons. The roads are congested, true, but so are most suburban roads.

    Once again, however, you bemuse me. You seemed to be posing a question about public transport in Box Hill, as if you were unaware of the state of it. I simply thought I was giving you information you were seeking – but no, as soon as I give it to you, you’re suddenly an expert in the field and start (apparently) fishing for an argument.

    If you knew all about Box Hill’s public transport, why write as if you didn’t? It’s just confusing.

  44. zoomster @ #893 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 11:21 pm

    bemused
    No, haven’t used the trams – neither (apparently) have my sons. The roads are congested, true, but so are most suburban roads.
    Once again, however, you bemuse me. You seemed to be posing a question about public transport in Box Hill, as if you were unaware of the state of it. I simply thought I was giving you information you were seeking – but no, as soon as I give it to you, you’re suddenly an expert in the field and start (apparently) fishing for an argument.
    If you knew all about Box Hill’s public transport, why write as if you didn’t? It’s just confusing.

    Where did I write as if I didn’t know about it?
    I know it from the point of view of someone who has used it and observed.
    I hold no professional qualifications in transport engineering as does Socrates and I originally started off simply drawing his attention to an article and offering some observations.

  46. The Russia Noose Tightens Around Trump As House Intel Committee Asks Sally Yates To Testify

    The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence announced that it sent letters inviting the testimony of many top current and former intelligence officials in regards to Russia’s active measures during the 2016 campaign, including Sally Yates. Yates is the big news here, as it was a hearing that she was scheduled to testify at that was abruptly canceled by Devin Nunes.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/21/house-select-committee-intelligence-invites-testimony-comey-rogers-brennan-clapper-yates.html

  47. A Majority of Voters Want To Toss Out Trump And Bring Back Obama

    Right when you might have been starting to really lose faith in your fellow citizens, here comes a PPP poll showing you are not alone. By a “51/43 split, voters would rather still have Obama than Trump as President overall.”

    Americans would rather have President Barack Obama back in the White House, not even 100 days in to the Trump presidency. This has to burn for Donald Trump, whose obsession with Barack Obama is unwavering even now that Trump managed to wiggle his way into the White House

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/04/21/majority-voters-barack-obama-trump-president.html

  48. It’s official: Top psychiatrists at Yale conference warn that Trump has a ‘dangerous mental illness’

    35 psychiatrists this week gathered at a conference at Yale to sound the alarm on what they believe is President Donald Trump’s “dangerous mental illness.”

    Per The Independent, the psychiatrists met at Yale’s School of Medicine on Thursday to talk about Donald Trump’s mental health, which they warned was frighteningly unstable

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/its-official-top-psychiatrists-at-yale-conference-warn-that-trump-has-a-dangerous-mental-illness/

  49. @bemused,

    Which pretty much the same for a lot of public transport in NSW… Redfern is one, usually up to 5 minutes lates, no Disabled access, no elevator, lots of people in peak hour traffic.

  50. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Our politicians wouldn’t be conflicted when it comes to considering changes to negative gearing and CGT would they?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/houses-of-parliament-politicians-own-an-estimated-370m-of-property-20170420-gvp2g5.html
    Jack Waterford and Turnbull’s crisis of legitimacy. Ouch!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-crisis-of-legitimacy-20170421-gvpaj4.html
    Laurie Oakes has a message for Turnbull. Abbott is not going away. Google.
    /news/opinion/laurie-oakes-tony-abbott-is-not-going-away/news-story/d941e668abeddc6ebe4b9b151b791ee7
    Elizabeth Knight looks at how top executives have been using 457s as a pathway to citizenship
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/forget-the-shearers-and-welders–corporate-executives-on-457-visas-20170421-gvpkkv.html
    Paul Kelly on the march of populism. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/paul-kelly/turnbulls-457-visa-ploy-risks-policy-for-populism/news-story/d5da41ff3e44d1078dd537ff2109a11d
    Kristina Keneally writes that Turnbull and Dutton are appealing to racist attitudes for base political purposes.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2017/apr/21/its-hard-to-integrate-into-australian-society-even-as-an-english-speaking-white-woman
    Paul Bongiorno says that Turnbull has “crossed the line” over 457 visas.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2017/04/22/malcolm-turnbull-crosses-the-line-457-visas/14927832004526
    Mike Pence’s visit will be a very “unTrump” affair.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/04/21/mike-pence-australia/
    There is a new disease in the US. Trumporrhoea .
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/worst-political-event-of-my-lifetime-lissa-muscatine-on-the-trump-ascendancy-20170421-gvpgye.html
    Turnbull has cooled expectations of an affordable housing “centrepiece” in the budget.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-dampens-talk-of-affordable-housing-focus-in-budget-20170421-gvph9r.html

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