Labor picks up a point in this week’s reading of Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average, which did not allow the Easter long weekend to interrupt its schedule. The major parties exchange a point on the primary vote, with Labor up to 37% and the Coalition down to 36%, while the Greens and One Nation hold steady at 10% and 8% respectively.
Also included are approving ratings for cross-benchers Senators, which I like to think they asked because I suggested it to them a few weeks ago, and it’s turned up the finding I was fishing for when I did: namely, that Jacqui Lambie, at 32% approval and 30% disapproval, is more popular than the overrated Pauline Hanson, at 32% and 48%. Still less popular are David Leyonhjelm, with 9% approval, 28% disapproval and a forbiddingly high “don’t know about them”, and Cory Bernardi, whose respective numbers are 10%, 34% and 41% (“not sure” accounts for the balance). At the top of the charts is Nick Xenophon, at 35% approval and 25% disapproval, followed by Derryn Hinch at 35% and 27%.
The poll also records 38% support for allowing superannuation to be accessible when buying a home, with 50% opposed, and has a suite of questions on the American intervention in Syria: 41% approve of last week’s bombing with 36% opposed; 37% say they would support US ground troops being sent, with 39% opposed; and 31% saying they would approve of an Australian contribution, with 50% opposed.
Dan,
Also, if the robots can do everything cheaper shouldn’t that provide a dividend for everyone? I would much rather be given the money to go surfing than be subsidised to keep a job a robot could do better for less.
Socrates
Friday, April 21, 2017 at 4:00 pm
Briefly
….Great sequence….immortal…
DG
Then it wouldn’t be ‘Universal’ i.e. it would then be targeted social security.
Note the rear vision mirror in Dutton’s FU Holden!
dan gulberry @ #750 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 6:44 pm
Do you question Andrew Leigh’s arithmetic?
It seems pretty irrefutable to me, but I am sure the rules of maths are different on planet Guytaur.
Whatever else happens, we will need to construct around 500,000 dwellings (at an average of 2.5 persons per dwelling) just to keep pace with net migration over the next five years.
Labour in power eroded the NHS by entrenching user pays and private sector mechanisms for health care. It would be better for Labour to undergo wholesale internal reform, with the members getting candidates who actually represent their priorities, than to continue with the present stupidity of arrogant spivs-on-themake Blairite MPs wanting to elect a new membership and a new public.
John Reidy
Friday, April 21, 2017 at 6:33 pm
“Julie Bishop has enormous attraction, is popular with her colleagues & would be a tremendous opposite to Bill Shorten”
This is ridiculous. Anyone who’s seen Bishop up close knows she would fall apart after 2 weeks as PM. She also knows it. She’s popular precisely because she poses no threat to anyone.
Boerwar
And more patience as the roads get “cloggier” .
lizzie @ #738 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 6:27 pm
Congrats! The laugh of the day.
We all know that the only way Labor deserves to form government anywhere is if it is de facto a Greens government.
Anything less is impure, unworthy and deserving of eternal life in opposition while the racists, reactionaries, thugs and thieves plunder the people and the planet.
Guytaur,
As we see today the ” Safety Net” is failing miserably. Change thinking with UBI to a reasonable standard to live.
Many have previously commented on both your stubbornness and/or your cluelessness in the face of clear explanations and evidence. You are displaying both in spades here.
If, the single age pension (currently $23,000, including supplements), is more than if ‘we got rid of all our current cash transfers and replaced them with a flat-rate universal basic income. Current spending would support a payment of around $6000 per person’, what’s to like about that!?!
Or, looking at replacing $23000/year pensions with a UBI, ‘ That would require an increase in taxes of $17,000 per person, or around 23 percent of GDP’, just so you could give millionaires and billionaires $23000/year from the public purse! That’s just nuckin’ futs!
P
Yep.
So a FU Holden? with an Abbott rear view mirror? NIce touch from David Rowe I think
Nicholas
Exactly . Blair was the one who sent them down the current path, all the Tories have done is carry on with his work.
Bemused
Less money for the Trump’s cabinet in the US. Less money for the Gina Rinehardt’s of the world.
The current system can and should be changed so the rich are less rich and let the bottom people live a life.
The Social Security safety net has failed in this.
With UBI every voter has a stake so its harder to keep the income below the poverty line.
FWIW
I heard Shorten interviewed by Raf Epstein on Melbourne Drive program this afternoon on Labor’s proposed changes re: housing affordability.
O.K.. I’m biased to Labor, but I thought he went very well. Not making promises he knows he can’t necessarily keep, and explaining the policy clearly as well as expected outcomes.
I don’t know why people, apart from Rex, bag him. Raf is a very good interviewer, in my view, and Shorten came across as authentic, and clearly able to articulate the difference between Labor and the Coalition’s position on 457 visas.
To which I might add, that Dr Andrew Leigh grew up in a poor family, so he is viscerally aware of inequality and also what it takes for a family on the lower rungs of society’s ladder to survive. Without upsetting the apple cart that sees the wealthier contribute their taxes to support those below them.
Cat
You tax business. Especially the erich multinationals. As long as you don’t kill the golden goose it can be done.
When people like Robert Reich and Peter Martin talk seriously about it its not airy fairy nonsense.
Bill Gates did suggest taxing the Robots
boerwar @ #756 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 6:56 pm
It was pointed out earlier today that to buy something vaguely affordable in Sydney you have to accept a long commute.
This is confirmation of what I have been thinking, that location is one of the major drivers of housing prices.
The only way to put more people in desirable locations is to replace houses with multi-story apartments. Which many are reluctant to accept.
There are three other solutions I can see.
1. Spend big on public transport to provide fast commuting from far outer suburbs.
2. Develop alternate business centres such as Parramatta in Sydney, Box Hill in Melbourne and also make them a public transport hub easily accessible from surrounding suburbs.
3. Develop regional centres with fast fail connections to the CBD.
These are not mutually exclusive.
Nicholas
Friday, April 21, 2017 at 6:58 pm
It would be better for Labour to undergo wholesale internal reform…
Labour missed an historic opportunity to make themselves relevant during the Brexit plebiscite. Instead of choosing to campaign for the Remain case, they essentially abstained. They still do not have a coherent position on Brexit. As a result, they are irrelevant. They have nothing to say about the future of the UK. They can reform or not reform themselves. It will make no difference as long as they refuse to contest the great issues with the Tories. In this election, Labour have even less to offer than the Lib-Dems or the Gs. The Trots have finally got what they have always wanted – A Labour Party that even working people will not support.
ML
The Coalition hate Shorten with a passion. Tick.
The Greens hate Shorten with a passion. Tick.
His MPs have stuck with for four long years in Opposition. Tick.
The Australian, the DT, Bolt, Jones and Hadley loathe him. Tick.
Hanson despises him. Tick.
Shorten is playing with Turnbull’s mind by leading on policy. Tick.
Shorten is going to make a reasonable prime minister.
He may even make a great prime minister.
But ‘reasonable’ is all that I aspire to, these days.
Guytaur,
With UBI every voter has a stake so its harder to keep the income below the poverty line.
With taxes every wage and salary earner has a stake in supporting those who cannot support themselves.
With UBI forced on them there would be a massive flight of capital and tax minimisation because people would jack up at having to pay $17000 more in tax per year. How much do you reckon the unemployed and pensioners would get then?
That’s reality, guytaur, whether you approve of it or not.
Better to just increase Newstart.
There are some very interesting stats in this link
https://www.border.gov.au/ReportsandPublications/Documents/statistics/nom-september-2016.pdf
Mari
Rowe on a roll at the mo !!!
Briefly,
The Trots have finally got what they have always wanted – A Labour Party that even working people will not support.
I think you mean the Tories. 😉
C
You would need to explain why Labor is heading towards the Mother of All Electoral Baths.
Yes, CTar1, interesting, but numbers only mean something when in context. Especially wrt 457 Visas. As in, how many of them were used to pay Workers < Aussies doing the same job? Or, how many of those 457 jobs could have been filled by suitably-qualified Aussies?
Boerwar
I’ll settle for reasonable as opposed to George “let’s lurch to the right” Trumble.
Labor also continue to display a unified team, as opposed to the NSW infighting.
Much mirth was had on the Drive program News Therapy session about the Lib. infighting about who should be head prefect between Abbott and Trumble.
Feedback from callers about Trumble and the Libs. was scathing, predominantly
Sorry, my last comment should have been addressed to Boerwar. 😳
Cat
Not the reality.
Why? Individuals while still taxed would be taxed less. Its business you tax. The whole idea is lots more carrot to work as less jobs are available.
Its either that or go back to the dark ages with nobles and peasants.
Due to AI the job loss to automation is greater than most people are thinking and its not that far off in time.
Facebook yesterday announced they are working on wireless brain to Computer inputs. So no more typing.
We have self driving cars now. The delay is two things. How long before software is good enough to avoid unexpected accidents and till we humans get comfortabe with cars driving themselves.
Thats not taking into account factories that will be automated with 3D printing. AI taking away clerical style jobs. Bookkeepers. Maybe even accountants.
Its going to be a very different ball game
Monica Lynagh,
Did anyone even mention Julie Bishop’s name as a potential Liberal Leader?
Briefly above re Bishop as OL, you are correct, I was being very, very disingenuous.
[ @ABCthedrum
“Julie Bishop has enormous attraction, is popular with her colleagues & would be a tremendous opposite to Bill Shorten” #TheDrum #auspol ]
Seriously? What idiot said that?
C@t…I mean the Trots!
The left in the UK have always despised Labour and wanted to supplant them. They are about to be supplanted all right…but not from the left. The Tories will the beneficiaries of leftist delusion. We’ve seen the rise of Scottish Nationalism in the North and the practical extinction of Labour. In England the Tories are the Nationalist Party. They also look to extinguish Labour. We are seeing the rise of Nation and the dissolution of Class as the fault line in British politics.
So much for class consciousness in the UK. Before long, we may see the revival of the 19th century divide between the Tories and the Liberals.
I understand the all Liberal MPs are going to be sent to a re-education camp.
The curriculum will include a ‘Unity Despair Workshop.’
Apart from a bit of rah rah for nuclear war with NK, Ms Bishop has been rather circumspect recently.
Guytaur,
The work environment is always fluid. Doesn’t mean we have to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Such that, as per your scenario, if we try and make businesses pay, lots, more tax in Australia, what little we get out of them now will just evaporate overnight.
Those that can take their business overseas to a low tax jurisdiction will, and those that can’t will take it out on the employees they still do have by cutting into their wages and conditions even more than they do now. Business people are not charities. They are not the Benevolent Society.
I wouldn’t worry too much about AI and Robotics. We will adapt and new jobs in new human interface businesses will be created.
According to the link provided above there are only about 50,000 457s.
Australia has around 13,000,000 in the labour market.
Which makes 457s smallish beer.
bemused @ #755 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 6:56 pm
I’m not doubting Dr Leigh’s arithmetic at all. I’ll repeat I’m not pro- or anti-UBI at this stage, however having a discussion and taking into account all points of view and various models is exactly what needs to be happening right now. That way we might be able to develop a system that manages the massive rise in unemployment that is (not might be) going to happen.
Anyway, I’d appreciate an answer to one of the questions I raised in my original post: How much are taxes going to have to rise to pay for the increase in the number of people receiving Newstart?
At this stage there are no right or wrong answers to that question, which is why I asked it – to open up a discussion on the matter.
Briefly,
Ah, now I get you. 🙂
Australian Labor have broached that issue much more successfully than their English counterparts, don’t you think?
C
‘The work environment is always fluid. Doesn’t mean we have to throw the baby out with the bathwater.’
I get it.
Bathwater is fluid.
But isn’t that a spiral argument when it comes time for the water to drain down the plughole of life?
C@Tmomma
No mention of BishopJ at all. The focus was on the stoush between the Abbott and Trumble.
I wonder if Pence has learned Trumble’s actual name as yet for this weekend’s meetings?
It would be very funny if Malcolm had to keep correcting him.
Malcolm is suffering from relevance deprivation syndrome on so many fronts. It must smart.
John Reidy
Friday, April 21, 2017 at 7:23 pm
🙂
Cat
You should worry about AI and robotics. The combination is at the start of the mobile phone stage. That is. Not that long ago we had mobiles in briefcases. Then we got smartphones.
Ai is on a similar track to improvement. If we crack quantum computing that increases exponentially.
Its no joke to say that humans will be like the Nobles of rome. AI and automation will be the slaves.
guytaur @ #766 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 7:02 pm
Perhaps you have discovered some kind of quantum accounting where money can be in multiple places at once.
I will rely on Andrew Leigh’s calculations.
C@Tmomma
Friday, April 21, 2017 at 7:31 pm
Labor in Australia has generally had a much better record than UK Labour….from the earliest of days.
http://www.gaystarnews.com/article/hillary-clinton-calls-trump-chechnya/
More on the concentration camps
The core problem seems to be that at some time or other the unwork masses will go from being downtrodden and thoroughly browned off to arming themselves with pitchforks.
IMO, a form UBI is almost inevitable as we enter a largely post-work society.
It will require a fundamental rethink of the meaning of work, society and life.
How do we incentivize people not to work?
How do we live a work-free but meaningful life?
Where does status come from when more than half the population does not do a day’s work in its whole life time?
It will also require a fundamental rethink of the role of capital.
Starting with current arrangements for social security is, IMO, starting with an anachronism.
monica lynagh @ #767 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 7:04 pm
I heard that and thought Raf just asked some exceptionally dumb questions such as by what percentage or how many dollars will the price of a house fall?