Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

As Labor picks up a point, Essential Research finds Nick Xenophon, Derryn Hinch and Jacqui Lambie to be more popular than Pauline Hanson, David Leyonhjelm and Cory Bernardi.

Labor picks up a point in this week’s reading of Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average, which did not allow the Easter long weekend to interrupt its schedule. The major parties exchange a point on the primary vote, with Labor up to 37% and the Coalition down to 36%, while the Greens and One Nation hold steady at 10% and 8% respectively.

Also included are approving ratings for cross-benchers Senators, which I like to think they asked because I suggested it to them a few weeks ago, and it’s turned up the finding I was fishing for when I did: namely, that Jacqui Lambie, at 32% approval and 30% disapproval, is more popular than the overrated Pauline Hanson, at 32% and 48%. Still less popular are David Leyonhjelm, with 9% approval, 28% disapproval and a forbiddingly high “don’t know about them”, and Cory Bernardi, whose respective numbers are 10%, 34% and 41% (“not sure” accounts for the balance). At the top of the charts is Nick Xenophon, at 35% approval and 25% disapproval, followed by Derryn Hinch at 35% and 27%.

The poll also records 38% support for allowing superannuation to be accessible when buying a home, with 50% opposed, and has a suite of questions on the American intervention in Syria: 41% approve of last week’s bombing with 36% opposed; 37% say they would support US ground troops being sent, with 39% opposed; and 31% saying they would approve of an Australian contribution, with 50% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,057 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 22
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  1. Briefly

    Same tune now being played as in the 2013 election. The MPs have been so destabilised by Abbott and his cronies that they are in desperation to save their seats, so they turn to the destabiliser who has won before. They called it “saving the furniture” in 2013, but it failed. Will the Libs panic in the same way?

  2. Grimace…I think the Libs face all-but certain defeat in both Hasluck and Pearce. Despite the demographic shifts, both Swan and Stirling are winnable for Labor in the current context. Canning is also vulnerable on the State results. In the regions where the Tory vote has weakened more than in the city, Durack and Forrest are also prospects for Labor.

    Of the remaining Lib-held seats – Curtin, O’Conner, Tangney and Moore, only Moore is a possible contest.

    The Libs have taken their franchise for granted. I think WA will swing very strongly to Labor at the next election, giving expression to a pent up desire for change and resentment of Federal neglect of WA interests.

    (The case in point….There is nothing so irrelevant to WA as the current brawling between the Sydney boys over who should be school captain……)

  5. Grimace
    “I don’t follow property prices much and was stunned to see discussion on PB of the Sydney metropolitan property price being $1.15m. That valuation seems to be so out of whack with reality that I question whether it’s true or not (I live in Perth).”

    Yes it is out of whack with reality and yes it is (sadly) true. There was a recent article (non-fiction) highlighting what french chateaus you could buy for the price of a Sydney house.
    https://www.domain.com.au/news/forget-australian-house-prices-buy-a-french-chateau-for-less-20170316-guz980/
    Why has it gotten so bad? I argued here during the period Labor was in government that housing cost was a problem but neither Rudd nor Gillard fixed it. Why? I think this is the only plausible explanation. Personal greed by half of parliament.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-20/australian-politician-property-ownership-details/8453782

  6. The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, and the immigration minister, Peter Dutton, are correct to point out that Australia can do so much better at binding new migrants to our Australian community and its values.

    But they are so wrong in their approach.

    The Turnbull government’s changes to citizenship requirements lack sophisticated thinking about who we are as a nation and how we best invite new migrants to join us.

    Instead, Turnbull and Dutton are appealing to nativist, xenophobic and racist attitudes for base political purposes. Their newfound concern for citizenship requirements is disingenuous: Turnbull didn’t mention changing citizenship requirements in his National Press Club address in February when he set out his priorities for the year. The new questions are designed to stoke fear and instil suspicion. These measures will be ineffective and, most likely, counter-productive.

    If this is the best that Malcolm Turnbull can offer, well, Australia, we’ve got plenty to worry about, mate.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2017/apr/21/its-hard-to-integrate-into-australian-society-even-as-an-english-speaking-white-woman?CMP=share_btn_tw

  7. @ Bemused
    I’d go so far as to say Labor had pencilled in Swan, Hasluck and Pearce.

    With Swan, between the existing Labor base in the middle of the seat and the urban infill going on in the north east of the seat (Forrestfield and High Wycombe) I think Labor can pencil that one in.

    The impact of the end of the mining boom on Durack will be interesting, I would think this would push the seat back towards Labor. A determined push with the Aboriginal communities to get out the vote would very likely get Labor over the line if it’s a close contest.

    The urbanisation of Forrest is concentrating voters in the larger towns on the coast, which is advantageous for Labor. Most of my yearly childhood holidays were in the South West, and having not visited them during my 20’s I can’t believe the growth in Bunbury and Busselton, and their surrounding suburbs, they are both major centres now.

  9. @ Bemused
    Where did you campaign during the state election? I just did Ellenbrook, Aveley and The Vines (Swan Hills).

  12. Hmmm, this may be interesting – or not.

    Insiders ABC‏Verified account
    @InsidersABC

    On #Insiders, @barriecassidy interviews @PeterDutton_MP. On the panel: @PhillipCoorey, @murpharoo & Niki Savva. Loads to discuss! #auspol

  15. CTar1
    I hope that Cassidy has the facts so he can argue with Dutton. I get very angry when journos allow lies to fly over their heads, and Dutton is guaranteed to lie.

  19. Have the libs done fed preselections yet? I’d be stunned if Porter contested Pearce, he’ll be looking for Julie to retire or something similar.

  24. Immigration Minister Peter Dutton is facing claims he has spread “children overboard” style misinformation by appearing to blame asylum seekers for last week’s violent outburst at the Manus Island detention centre.

    Dutton says one thing, local authorities say something else. Who to believe? Based on his past form, anyone but Dutton, who seems to see disparaging has charges as part of his job description (maybe it is, unofficially, of course).

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/png-officials-refugees-dispute-peter-duttons-account-of-manus-island-violence-20170421-gvpdu4.html

  31. Grimace @5:11
    I blame my employer, they are making me work when I’d much rather be doing other things.
    This causes a phenomenon called ‘Pay Day’

  34. Guytaur,
    You may not be so enamored of Dr Andrew Leigh when you read this:

    Why a universal basic income is a terrible idea
    Using social policy to reduce inequality is almost precisely the opposite of the suggestion that Australia adopt a “universal basic income”. Here’s an illustration of how that might work out. Suppose we got rid of all our current cash transfers and replaced them with a flat-rate universal basic income. Current spending would support a payment of around $6000 per person.

    Every millionaire and billionaire would be thousands of dollars better off. But every pensioner would be in abject poverty — barely able to buy food, let alone pay their bills. Australia’s social safety net reduces inequality by 10 Gini points, while a universal basic income — by design — has zero impact on inequality. So scrapping the social safety net in favour of a universal basic income would increase the Gini by 10 points — making Australia as unequal as Latin America.

    Some argue that a universal basic income should be paid for by increasing taxes, rather than by destroying our targeted welfare system. But I’m not sure they’ve considered how big the increase would need to be. Suppose we wanted the universal basic income to be the same amount as the single age pension (currently $23,000, including supplements). That would require an increase in taxes of $17,000 per person, or around 23 percent of GDP. This would make Australia’s tax to GDP ratio among the highest in the world.

    So next time someone advocates a universal basic income, ask them how they’d like to pay for it: by making Australia the most unequal country in the world, or by making Australia the most highly-taxed country in the world.

    Andrew Leigh is the Shadow Assistant Treasurer. This is an extract of a speech delivered at the Australian National University on 20 April 2017, titled “How Can We Reduce Inequality?“

    🙂

  36. Did anyone hear Turnbull show off his apparent talent for speaking in French today? The commercial (2CC) news about noon had Turnbull speaking about the latest attack in Paris and then saying a sentence or two in French.

    I’ve never heard him do this before. Is it his way of communicating his “worldly persona” to those who consider him a flim-flam artist?

    His motive for doing this is a bit obscure

  37. Cat

    Mr Leigh cannot be right about everything. I know the LNP would try and keep it below the poverty line ala Centrelink. However I know with automation there will be greater numbers of people who will fall into the unskilled category.

    We need to plan for that reality and not cling to the gamble, so far failing as the unemployement rate shows, that more jobs will replace those lost.

  38. ABC The Drum‏Verified account
    @ABCthedrum

    “Julie Bishop has enormous attraction, is popular with her colleagues & would be a tremendous opposite to Bill Shorten” #TheDrum #auspol

  41. Socrates
    Friday, April 21, 2017 at 4:08 pm

    Why has it gotten so bad? I argued here during the period Labor was in government that housing cost was a problem but neither Rudd nor Gillard fixed it. Why? I think this is the only plausible explanation. Personal greed by half of parliament.

    It was a problem, but it has got much worse in recent years as investors struggle with where to park their money.

    Also, during and after the GFC trying to reduce housing prices would not have been good for confidence.

  42. Guytaur,
    Did you understand what Dr Leigh was saying!?! Apropos your questioning what will happen to jobs with robotics and AI in the future, he said that Australians will be best provided for with our current Social Safety Net and NOT UBI.

  43. Toorak Toff,
    Look at how easily FB bots divided Sanders and Hillary DEM’s. Look at how Blairites in the Labour party hate Corbyn.

    Shorten has the ALP united. A miracle for a Left leaning leader in period of worldwide nationalist populism.

  44. “Julie Bishop has enormous attraction, is popular with her colleagues & would be a tremendous opposite to Bill Shorten”
    I think she would be an excellent (opposition) leader, opposing Bill as PM.
    Is that what they were talking about?

  45. Cat

    Just more excuse for LNP to cut. Thats already failing as Pensioners let alone the unemployed are below the poverty line.

    To have an equitable socirty we need to tax business to support all citizens, not just a wealthy few at the top of the tree.

    As we see today the ” Safety Net” is failing miserably. Change thinking with UBI to a reasonable standard to live.

  46. Regarding Abbott and Turnbull.
    If I was a RW nutter it would be more fun to go off the cliff with some fool who thinks he can fly rather than some fool who can’t decide between the accelerator and the brake.

  48. Grimace….

    Cheers…I’m occasionally also bemused by what I hear or see 🙂

    I think the mood in WA is similar to the early 1980s, when a decrepit State Liberal government was overwhelmingly rejected by the electorate and then WA voters helped remove an ineffectual, self-absorbed and incompetent Federal Liberal Government. In 1983, WA recorded one of its very few pro-Labor 2PP majorities. The same thing is possible whenever the next Federal election is held. The electorate is quite disenchanted with the Liberal Party, who have repeatedly failed WA’s interests and continue to do so. I think voters were close to moving this way in 2016 and were partly checked by the Lib campaign effort. Next time, nothing will stop the migration from Liberal to Labor, leading to Labor gains in seats all around the State.

  49. Lizzie
    Friday, April 21, 2017 at 3:51 pm
    Briefly

    .. Will the Libs panic in the same way?

    Time will tell, lizzie. I think the odds are 50/50 and improving for Abbott all the time.

  50. c@tmomma @ #742 Friday, April 21, 2017 at 6:29 pm

    Guytaur,
    Did you understand what Dr Leigh was saying!?! Apropos your questioning what will happen to jobs with robotics and AI in the future, he said that Australians will be best provided for with our current Social Safety Net and NOT UBI.

    I’m not taking sides in this argument, but with increased automation and mass unemployment, at what point does the Newstart allowance become a de facto UBI? Won’t rising unemployment mean that to cover a huge increase in the number of people receiving Newstart, taxes will have to rise anyway? What about means testing UBI?

    Like I said, I’m not taking sides, just throwing some questions out there for discussion.

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