Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor

The Coalition crashes in the latest entry of a poll series that is coming in unusually high for the Greens.

The Fairfax papers have an Ipsos poll that belies last week’s improvement for the Coalition in Newspoll. The report identifies Labor’s two-party lead as 55-45, but it features a chart showing Labor to be leading 56-44 “by overall preference flows”, whatever that means. The primary votes are Labor 34%, Coalition 33% and Greens 16% – a high Greens apparently having become a feature of this series. Malcolm Turnbull is down five on approval since November to 40% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 35% and steady at 53%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 51-30 to 45-33. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

776 comments on “Ipsos: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. I’d love to know if William has had any conversations with the Crikey management over this past year of blunders and stuffups. At best this blog was usable but still clunky. The schoolboy errors kept turning up almost every day. Seriously, its 2017 now. There’s millions of blogs that get it right. Its not rocket science. I just hope William right now is having a few words with Crikey.

    I just can’t believe its come to this. The changes to the mobile version many months ago were pathetic. Surrendering a whole column to the gravatar so your finger wears out scrolling. And automatic back links for replies are not rocket science.

    The boss just needs to get some new coders.

  2. Cud Chewer

    Trog, WordPress has its faults but there’s lots of blogs that use it that are a lot more professional than this.

    Having built 30 or 40 WordPress sites, I would have to agree.

  3. OK – I kept hitting ‘Load More’ on the assumption that I would see the newest posts, only to find I’ve gone backwards.

    Difficult to work out where you are without time stamps!

  4. Snowjob 2.0 is dead in the water. I’ll give it another month before the mainstream cotton on.
    Three problems:
    1) It’s too expensive to run
    2) It’s viability relies on a high price differential between high and low daytime prices that will eventually disappear
    3) Not enough water

    OPINION
    Snowy Two: Turnbull’s pipe is full of holes
    Illustration: Sturt Krygsman

    Ron Pike
    The Australian
    12:00AM March 28, 2017
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    Decked out in hard hat and fluoro vest as a modern-day, can-do Man from Snowy River, Malcolm Turnbull recently sought to bolster his leadership by basking in the aura of pride that still surrounds the Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme.

    Sixty-eight years earlier a visionary prime minister, Ben Chifley, announced the start of the Snowy scheme with these words: “This plan is the greatest single project in our history — it will provide vast supplies of water and power to drive decentralisation of industry and population. This is a plan for the nation and it needs the nation to back it.”

    The nation did and the building and commissioning of the Snowy scheme changed Australia from a mostly British agricultural society to a proud multicultural and industrial country.

    For those desperately fleeing a war-torn Europe, seeking a new life, and the people of this vast and sparsely populated (and at that time power and water-starved country), the Snowy scheme, the work it offered and the resources that flowed following its completion made both man and nation.

    The other day our present Prime Minister stated: “I am a nation-building prime minister and this is a nation-building project.”

    The two statements and the plans they prefaced could not be more dissimilar but they have one thing in common: that although these statements were made so many years apart, the national situation in each case is quite similar.

    At both times we have a huge influx of people seeking safe haven, but we are desperately short of resources to generate jobs and we are carrying unsustainable national debt.

    There the similarity ends. Notice first that a true visionary like Chifley speaks about the people, their future and his country, whereas Turnbull speaks about himself — because his vision apparently does not go beyond keeping his job.

    As a retired executive officer, strategic engineering, from the Snowy Mountains Authority, Max Talbot, told the ABC last week: “This appears to be no more than a thought bubble about something we rejected as too expensive over 20 years ago.”

    Talbot explained: “Pumped storage hydro requires about 20 per cent more energy to pump the water than is returned to the system when that water is used to generate electricity. PSH is a net user of energy from the system. For example, 100 megawatt hours of pumping returns 80MWh of generated power.

    “Therefore it is only commercial when the differential between peak and off-peak prices (is) far greater than 20 per cent.”

    As a result, Turnbull’s so-called Snowy 2.0 can never be a solution to our power needs. It makes us wonder where the Prime Minister is getting his advice.

    As part of the announcement, Turnbull claimed that this was the part of the Snowy scheme that was never built.

    But it was never part of the Snowy scheme. As Talbot pointed out, this scheme was considered and dismissed in the 1980s.

    “It was uneconomical,” he explained. “Because without reducing flows from Tantangara to Eucumbene, there was insufficient water in Tantangara to provide for further hydro power production. It would have been robbing Peter (Tumut 1 and Tumut 2 power stations) to pay Paul (Turnbull’s proposed new hydro stations).”

    Turnbull’s plan is so build tunnels from Tantangara Dam to Talbingo Dam with two power stations along the way. The water that would power these units is the same water that now goes from Tantangara to Eucumbene and then through two power stations into Talbingo Dam. So, same water, same drop and..

    Google the GG:
    opinion/snowy-two-turnbulls-pipe-is-full-of-holes

  5. zoomster
    “12.02, btw – perhaps if we preface our comments with our own time stamp, we can keep track of what’s going on.”
    As long as we know what State the “time was stamped” 🙂

  6. I notice that 30000 houses without power in Queensland. Wonder if Turnbull and Freudenberg will make any comment and whether they make the distinction between transmission and generation source that they didn’t make in South Australia’s case in September last year.

  7. FalconWA

    Where are the other 651 comments and the ability to navigate to various pages? Is Malcolm to blame for this?

    I blame Bill Shorten.
    And renewable energy.

  8. 12:45 28.3.17 For goodness sake Crickey, stop letting the work experience student play with The PB site. Where are the adults in your organisation? Time for them to take over.

  9. Some words of wisdom on the problem from Bushfire Bill:

    bushfire bill @ #362 #362 Saturday, December 3, 2016 at 3:58 pm
    The relevancy of your life is inversely proportional to the amount of time you spend whingeing about not being able to log onto Crikey.

  10. I am not going to comment directly about Ian Turnbull dying in prison.

    This belief that your land is your castle is a gross simplification of law and completely misunderstands the meaning and purpose of unalienable rights.

    There exists a constant push for individualism and small government, often chanted by rightwing populists, leading towards some sort of individualist anarchy. The social contract is being twisted and screwed and instead of giving the individual more power will only benefit the few at great cost to the many. It is really pissing me off.

    This urge for a battle between the individual and the state is merely a patsy for those on the right to push for permanent power. The individual in a functioning democracy has nothing to fear from the State. In fact, I would far rather deal with a government run entity than a big multinational as that entity, if properly set up, is directly responsible for and accountable to the individuals it serves. Suspicion of the state is a good thing but something best resolved through public institutions and the ballot box, not by eroding the fundamental building blocks of our social system.

  11. Crikey is scrambled but I will persevere. The report by AEMO into the SA power failure in part blames the control settings of wind generators in SA (not the fact that winnd power was being used). Then it says this:
    “AEMO said changes made to turbine control settings shortly after the event has removed the risk of recurrence given the same number of disturbances.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-28/wind-farm-settings-to-blame-for-sa-blackout-aemo-says/8389920
    So a simple change to control settings removed the risk of this happening. Why then, wasn’t it done BEFORE the blackout? In other words, was this blackout due to management inadequacies of the network? To what extent was the cause of the blackout AEMO itself?

  12. SK

    This belief that your land is your castle is a gross simplification of law and completely misunderstands the meaning and purpose of unalienable rights.

    10.4 on that.

  13. “I am not going to comment directly about Ian Turnbull dying in prison.”

    If an old man commits a serious crime and as a result dies in prison from his otherwise reasonable sentence, I blame the old man.

  14. Speaking of which, listening to AM every morning is actually quite instructive because, you tend to get the government’s agenda for the day, direct from the source.

    So the topics today were getting the government’s agenda through the senate, company tax cuts, and energy policy.
    Joyce was the chosen spokesperson of the day, whose job was basically to blame Labor, State Govts and renewables for everything.

    For a follow up hit, for those who needed some reinforcement, we had an extended interview with the new head of the Business Council.

    Promoting the government’s agenda this morning took more than half the program.

    I suspect that AM is in breach of the ABC’s charter, but who gives a stuff about that piece of fiction.

  15. Sorely tempted to code something up that scrapes article and comment content from this blog and then republishes it with a UI that’s actually usable.

    What are the odds the Crikey would sue me for copyright infringement if I did that?

  16. No QT on ABC24 today. But on standard ABC TV.

    I haven’t watched for a while but today I will to see how Turnbull looks after his latest debacle. 😀

  17. You have to wonder about American coders who don’t understand that the user base is in a time zone 18 hours ahead of them, we will have to wait 18 hours for the pixies to come in and fix their mess

    Who in Crikey specified/signed off on these changes?

  18. Someone wrote the other day how the Turnbull government might have a good day or a few hours before they stuff it up big time. It appears as though this position has had a reset because this morning they were saying how important the extradition treaty with China was, and then a few hours later cancelled the vote. Mind you it did give them a chance to blame Labor. What a shambles!!

  19. SKY having great fun playing Julie Bishop this morning stressing how crucial it is (after ten years) to ratify the extradition treaty with China and then a few hours later saying it’s been scrapped.

  20. Socrates,
    I partly blame some members of the National party who have for a long time been fostering anger in farmers regarding enforcement of environmental laws on their land.

  21. I was wondering a bit if they were trying to fix the mobile display problems but after trying on my Windows phone I see that the most recent comment at the top and only 6 displayed. So the same as on my Windows lap top.

  22. Simon Ravi Katich

    Barnyard at the time said that while not condoning the farmer’s action he understood there was a lot of anger out there because of the laws. My opinion of that sort of statement involves many swear words.

    Check out this as well from Joyce at the time.
    Mr Joyce went further over the weekend, telling The Northern Daily Leader: “You have this crazy situation where you don’t own the vegetation on your land, the state government does, and many people have had enough … I’m calling on the state government to repeal it, get rid of these laws … they shouldn’t be the responsibility of anyone to try and enforce.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/a-death-in-moree-no-cause-no-justification-20140806-1017yt.html

  23. Helen Razer is right on the money with this comment on why the public has less respect for scientific reason than it used to:

    we can blame the dwindling of respect for scientific reason on the technocrats. These are the people who employ the language of reason to deny what we can feel daily and most keenly with our senses. These are the people who say that unemployment is at a manageable level, that wages are fair and that what the market gives us is not a crisis of housing affordability, but an opportunity for great capital growth and rental yield. The liberal experiment has never failed, say the technocrats. The only reason that your kid will never leave home or use that vocational degree that had become redundant by their third year of study is the variable of avocado on toast.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/03/28/paleo-pete-talks-shit-but-so-do-our-alleged-leaders/

  24. ‘The only reason that your kid will never leave home or use that vocational degree that had become redundant by their third year of study is the variable of avocado on toast.’

    Sorry, what?

  25. Trog,

    Like all good zealots, I’m sure you and your kindred souls are certain of the “truth’ of your ideology and beliefs. However, Bandt is a politician with aspirations to gaining widespread support from the broader community. So, for me, taking advantage of a group of people in distressed circumstances to lecture and bully them and every one else about the meaning of your life is bad manners, bad politics and a total waste of time.

    But, I’m sure you will carry on regardless.

  26. Do you pay your chief programmer or is he/she a kid on work experience? If the latter tell him/her not to stress you will get it right in the end; if the former; you have hired the wrong guy.

  27. ABC saying BishJnr saying now she’ll still keep trying to get the extradition treaty with China ratified.

    But after this morning ‘she would say that, wouldn’t she’

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