Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

The latest Essential Research poll finds less than no evidence for the Coalition bounce recorded by Newspoll.

The Essential Research fortnight rolling average result departs firmly from the Newspoll script in recording a two-point jump to Labor, who now lead the two-party preferred by 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition drops one to 34%, Labor is up one to 37%, One Nation is down one to 10% and the Greens are steady on 9%. Also from this survey:

• A series of questions on power costs records 77% saying they have increased over the last few years, compared with 2% who clicked on the wrong button; 75% approving of a policy to reserve gas for domestic use, versus 6% disapproval; 29% apiece favouring more government control and more government ownership of energy production, versus 17% favouring “more private power companies to increase competition”; 68% approving of the South Australian government’s plan to build, own and operate a new gas-fired electricity plant along with a battery storage plant, with only 11% disapproving (59% and 17% among South Australian respondents, although there were fewer than 100 of these); 25% favouring banning coal seam gas mining, 31% favouring its restriction on farming land, and 14% believing current regulation to be sufficient.

• An occasional series of questions in which respondents are asked about the attributes of the two parties, which finds Labor increasing by three to five points on most positive indicators since last June, whereas the Liberals are down about five on most positive indicators and up about five on negative ones. Worst of the bunch by some margin is “divided”, on which the Liberals have shot from 52% to 68%. They have also dropped nine points on “has a good team of leaders”, on which Labor now leads 41% to 33%.

Elsewhere:

• A ReachTEL poll of Peter Dutton’s outer northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, conducted for progressive think tank the Australia Institute, finds Dutton with a two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-48, essentially unchanged from his 1.6% winning margin in 2016. However, the primary votes are shaken up by the arrival of One Nation on 17.6% (after including responses for a follow-up question prompting the undecided), with Dutton on 38.2% (down 6.4%), Labor on 30.2% (down 4.7%) and the Greens on 9.7% (down 0.2%). The poll also finds 60.5% opposed to public funding for the Adani Carmichael coal mine, with 17.5% in support; and 65.2% in favour of a 50% renewable energy target for 2030, with 22.8% opposed. It was conducted last Wednesday from a sample of 726.

• Courtesy of the ACTU, we have a second set of ReachTEL poll numbers on federal voting intention in Western Australia. After including results of a follow-up question prompting the initially undecided, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 31.7%, Nationals 5.6%, Greens 6.8% and One Nation 4.2%. The poll also finds 29.3% rating the penalty rates cut as very important in helping shape their vote; 23.2% somewhat important; 18.4% somewhat unimportant; and 29.0% as very unimportant. On the question of whether the federal government should legislate to protect penalty rates, 61.6% said yes and 38.4%. The poll was conducted Tuesday from a sample of 1471.

• A separate finding on the impact of penalty rates on the WA result comes from a poll by Labor-aligned lobbying group Campaign Capital, which finds 62.6% out of 1800 respondents across eleven marginal seats saying they opposed the cut.

I’m continuing to lag with the BludgerTrack updates – what’s below is what I should have published last week, without the latest numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research. The latest update will, I promise, be published in good time at the end of the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,927 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 39
1 2 3 … 39

  1. Regarding the survey dates of Essential, I bothered to go and read the Peter Lewis article and he is saying that it was too late in the preparation to be turned into a question for the poll.

    And while it was too late to put it in the field last week, we would expect the prime minister’s plans to increase the capacity of the Snowy hydro-electric scheme would also likely meet with widespread support.

    However, there should be no difference on the amount of influence the Hydro plan had (if any) on the TPP of Essential and Newspoll.

  2. question @ #51 Wednesday, March 22, 2017 at 12:02 am

    Regarding the survey dates of Essential, I bothered to go and read the Peter Lewis article and he is saying that it was too late in the preparation to be turned into a question for the poll.

    And while it was too late to put it in the field last week, we would expect the prime minister’s plans to increase the capacity of the Snowy hydro-electric scheme would also likely meet with widespread support.

    However, there should be no difference on the amount of influence the Hydro plan had (if any) on the TPP of Essential and Newspoll.

    Of course there will be wide public support. It sounds great. But it is not even a project – just a feasibility study. People will have forgotten it by the time of the next Newspoll, because the only activity on the project will be in the offices of accountants and engineers – not in the ‘real world’.

  3. Fully Agreed TPOF,

    The point of all that late night date checking and crappy explaining was to point out that the Hydro scheme cannot explain the difference between Essential and Newspoll. The Essential survey period was a day later, not before the scheme was announced.

  4. And while it was too late to put it in the field last week, we would expect the prime minister’s plans to increase the capacity of the Snowy hydro-electric scheme would also likely meet with widespread support.

    Yes. I see no reason not to do both the government’s plan and South Australia’s. It’s not like they’re mutually exclusive ideas.

  5. @AR

    Except that LNP hates renewable, regardless of snowy 2.0 (sounds like LNP version of writing down policy on s napkin).

    LNP won’t go ahead with it.

    Like NBN they delay much of it and study

  6. Oops some how cut off there…

    Like NBN they delay much of it and release a review that goes against it.

    Or if they go ahead with this more funding will be cut from social sections of the community.

  11. ‘‘There’s a smell of treason in the air’: Historian Douglas Brinkley analyzes ‘mind-boggling’ Comey hearing
    Monday’s House Intelligence Committee hearing with FBI Director James Comey is still causing shock waves throughout the political world, and historian Douglas Brinkley believes that it’s an unprecedented moment in American politics.
    “This is the most failed first 100 days of any president,” he said. “To be as low as he is in the polls, in the 30s, while the FBI director is on television saying they launched an investigation into your ties with Russia, I don’t know how it can get much worse.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/03/theres-a-smell-of-treason-in-the-air-historian-douglas-brinkley-analyzes-mind-boggling-comey-hearing/

  12. Comey Disclosures Leave Trump Alone on Island of Conspiracy Theories

    It’s become clear that things in the nation’s capital are boiling down to this:

    Leaders in Congress, law enforcement, and intelligence are struggling to convince one man that an investigation he imagined never existed and that another probe that he refuses to acknowledge is real.

    The surreal dynamic reached its zenith on Monday, as FBI Director James Comey and NSA Director Mike Rogers confirmed there’s no evidence to back up President Donald Trump’s accusation that President Barack Obama illegally ordered a wiretap of Trump Tower. “I have no information that supports those tweets and we have looked carefully inside the FBI,” Comey said.

    In a more explosive revelation, Comey also said the FBI was investigating potential links between the Trump campaign and Russian hacking in the 2016 election, an issue Trump tweeted just that morning was “made up” by Democrats to excuse their loss in November.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/comey-disclosures-leave-trump-alone-island-conspiracy-theories-n736101

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    When is Turnbull going to realise that he is totally stuffed until he can nobble the right wing rump?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-reassures-ethnic-leaders-in-bid-to-contain-18c-fallout-20170321-gv33vr.html
    Mark Kenny is singularly unimpressed by the 18c moves and their motives.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/racehate-law-changes-gesture-politics-from-the-people-who-claim-to-be-above-it-20170321-gv2vri.html
    Katherine Murphy attempts to explain the inexplicable when it comes to the government’s moves on 18c. She gives The Australian and Fox Lite (aka night time on Sky News) a good serve.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/21/deutsche-bank-that-lent-300m-to-trump-linked-to-russian-money-laundering-scam
    Michelle Grattan nails it as she writes “Malcolm Turnbull is now, it seems, wholly owned by the conservatives in the Liberal Party and their strident media allies. His capitulation to them over 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act has been as revealing as it has been dramatic”.
    https://theconversation.com/conservatives-have-captured-turnbull-for-culture-war-crusade-74954
    Counter-terrorism expert Anne Aly, Australia’s first female Muslim MP, has warned that watering down race hate laws could have an impact on national security as the Turnbull government proposes changes to the Racial Discrimination Act.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/03/21/anne-aly-18c-racial-discrimination-act/
    The SMH editorialises that we should all be concerned at the sustained push by the complementary medicine industry for advertising self-regulation. If anything, the current rules do not have enough bite. The TGA and ACCC’s role in regulating the advertising of complementary medicines should be strengthened with greater penalties for non-compliance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/strong-regulation-is-healthy-for-complementary-medicines-20170321-gv2v7t.html
    Ross Gittins examines the future for full time jobs.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/fulltime-work-is-going-to-the-dogs–and-itll-keep-getting-worse-20170320-gv2mph.html
    Public servants at the pesticides authority are hoping they can leave their makeshift office at MacDonald’s Armidale behind, launching a search for a real office in the northern NSW town where they are being forced to move. It’s an abject farce!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/byebye-wifi-as-apvma-public-servants-leave-maccas-20170320-gv2ons.html
    Adele Ferguson, with some glee, writes that come tomorrow a royal commission or commission of inquiry into the scandal-ridden banking sector will be a genuine live issue in the Federal Parliament. From that point, the sword of Damocles will dangle precariously over Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s head, waiting for the right moment to fall.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/sword-of-damocles-hangs-over-pm-turnbull-20170321-gv37qa.html

  14. Section 2 . . .

    The Independent Australia says “Who would have thought that scarcely five weeks after Treasurer Scott Morrison paraded a chunk of coal in Parliament, planning for Australia’s energy needs would be dominated by renewables, batteries and hydro?”
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/coal-versus-musk-no-contest,10130
    Paul Bongiorno says that even with a spring in its step after the latest NewsPoll the government is still on life support.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/03/20/tunbull-government-life-support/
    Poor Gerry Harvey. Our hearts bleed.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/gerry-harvey-says-people-are-just-making-things-up-20170321-gv2ulj.html
    The Fair Work Commission’s slashing of penalty rates exposes the powerlessness of Australia’s underclass: its casualised workforce.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/work/2017/03/21/penalty-rates-underclass/
    Has Dutton been working behind the scenes to get SSM legislation through this parliament?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-dutton-working-behind-the-scenes-to-legislate-samesex-marriage-before-ceo-spray-20170320-gv2lcq.html
    Peter Lewis says that people aren’t irritated about failing energy policy – they’re angry!
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/21/australians-arent-irritated-about-failing-energy-policy-theyre-angry
    Michael Gordon reckons Turnbull is going to lose out both ways over 18c.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malcolm-turnbull-stands-to-lose-both-ways-on-18c-changes-20170321-gv35gp.html
    Laura Tingle writes that Arthur Sinodinos has likened denying the threat of climate change to the anti-vaccination lobby, saying the only credible response to these positions is “scientific fact” and that his responsibility is to promote the government’s commitment to science. Is this a good career move by Arthur? Google
    /news/politics/arthur-sinodinos-likens-climate-change-denial-to-antivaxxers-pushes-for-more-science-20170321-gv34sm
    “Last week was just another bad week for Commissioner of Taxation, Chris Jordan. How many more bad weeks can he have before he resigns?”asks John Passant.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/should-the-commissioner-of-taxation-resign,10129
    The Guardian has revealed that the German bank that loaned $300m (£260m) to Donald Trump played a prominent role in a money laundering scandal run by Russian criminals with ties to the Kremlin.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/21/deutsche-bank-that-lent-300m-to-trump-linked-to-russian-money-laundering-scam

  15. Section 3 . . .

    Cadbury’s has been forced to slap down furious complaints from misinformed customers that its Easter eggs are Halal-certified.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/03/21/cadburys-slaps-down-racist-morons-over-halal-easter-eggs_a_21904094/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    The CA Royal Commission has been hearing that not all of the Church of England dioceses can agree on a national sexual abuse policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/anglican-dioceses-fail-to-agree-on-national-sex-abuse-policy-royal-commission-hears-20170320-gv2ly0.html
    More rampant nepotism from Trump.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/03/20/new-reports-raise-questions-about-ivanka-trumps-white-house-rol_a_21903729/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Stephen Koukoulas wonders why Shorten and Labor seem to be scared to run on the economy.
    https://thekouk.com/item/476-why-are-bill-shorten-and-labor-scared-to-run-on-the-economy.html
    Five things one shouldn’t say to a friend going through a divorce.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/four-things-you-shouldnt-say-to-a-friend-going-through-divorce-20170320-gv2jbn.html
    The Defence Force’s much-hyped Joint Strike Fighter would struggle to hit a moderately slow moving target such as a car used by Islamic State ¬for a suicide bomb attack. From The Australian of all places. Google.
    /national-affairs/defence/17bn-joint-strike-fighters-couldnt-hit-a-moving-car/news-story/23b728e0a69a290fbbac563e289f231e
    Tom Ballard writes that the abolition of the gay panic defence proves that if we try, our political action can change things for the better and explains the role he played in it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/i-stood-sidebyside-with-a-catholic-priest-to-overturn-queenslands-homophobic-law-20170321-gv3dcb.html
    Jeff Kennett lauds Julia Gillard’s appointment to head up BeyondBlue. Google.
    /news/opinion/jeff-kennett-gillard-ideal-for-beyondblues-next-chapter/news-story/c6288966e4fa7c6feecd1f57a9b49d30
    A new count of no votes found that even with Trump lobbying Republicans, he still lacks the votes to get the health care bill passed in the House.
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/03/21/republicans-total-free-fall-trump-votes-pass-health-care-bill.html

  21. ‘There is no adult in charge’: Robert Reich hammers Trump for ‘tweeting lies to prop up his ego’

    “We have as president an unhinged narcissistic child who tweets absurd lies and holds rallies to prop up his fragile ego, whose conflicts of financial interest are ubiquitous,” Reich wrote, “and whose presidency is under a “gray cloud” of suspicion (according to the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee) for colluding with Russian agents to obtain office in the 2016 election.”

    “His cabinet is an assortment of billionaires, CEOs, veterans of Wall Street, and ideologues, none of whom has any idea about how to govern and most of whom don’t believe in the laws their departments are in charge of implementing anyway,” he continued before turning his sights on the Republican Party.

    He concluded, “As a result of all this, the most powerful nation in the world, with the largest economy in the world, is rudderless and leaderless.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/03/there-is-no-adult-in-charge-robert-reich-hammers-trump-for-tweeting-lies-to-prop-up-his-ego/

  24. PhoenixRed
    Reich is correct.
    The most sensible thing for Trump to do would be to resign in the national and international interest. Won’t be holding my breath though!

  25. According to Brandis, the ANZACs fought and died so that Bolt and Murdoch can engage in racial vilification with impunity (ABC political blog today):

    Senator Brandis added:
    We don’t want to have a country in which freedom of speech, one of the things the ANZACs fought for is not considered one of our core social values.
    So this is something worth fighting for and we’re up for the fight.

  28. It looks like Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberal Party’s dominant hard right faction have come to an accomodation. Until the hard right can find someone electable as leader, they will let Malcolm be Prime Minister. In exchange, Malcolm will effectively be their front man, their barrister in the court of public opinion, arguing their case regardless of his personal beliefs.

  33. Bob Brown interview on ABC RN Breakfast program:

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/environmental-groups-form-alliance-to-oppose-adani-coal-mine/8375468

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/22/former-greens-leader-bob-brown-to-launch-coalition-to-oppose-adani-coalmine

    The former Greens leader Bob Brown will launch a new alliance of 13 environmental groups opposed to Adani’s Carmichael coalmine on Wednesday in Canberra.

    The Stop Adani Alliance will lobby against the coalmine in northern Queensland, citing new polling that shows three-quarters of Australians oppose subsidies for the mine when told the government plans to loan its owners $1bn

    .

  36. Predictably Neil Mitchell thinks Julia Gillard is a bad choice for Beyond Blue. He hasn’t explained why yet and I can’t be bothered listening to him to find out.

    He took a set against her when she was PM because she refused to subject herself to his stupidity and rudeness by going onto his program. Arrogant people like him become very vindictive when someone chooses to just ignore them

  37. citizen @ #75 Wednesday, March 22, 2017 at 8:13 am

    According to Brandis, the ANZACs fought and died so that Bolt and Murdoch can engage in racial vilification with impunity (ABC political blog today):

    Senator Brandis added:
    We don’t want to have a country in which freedom of speech, one of the things the ANZACs fought for is not considered one of our core social values.
    So this is something worth fighting for and we’re up for the fight.

    Well Citizen if you look at the actual behaviour of some of our ANZAC’s while they were on leave overseas you could make a strong case to support the good Senator’s premise.

  38. darn @ #86 Wednesday, March 22, 2017 at 8:59 am

    Predictably Neil Mitchell thinks Julia Gillard is a bad choice for Beyond Blue. He hasn’t explained why yet and I can’t be bothered listening to him to find out.
    He took a set against her when she was PM because she refused to subject herself to his stupidity and rudeness by going onto his program. Arrogant people like him become very vindictive when someone chooses to just ignore them

    Labor MPs should all boycott ‘red-neck radio’ and the Murdoch gutter press.

  39. Journos love calling for MPs to be sacked from Parliament, whilst conveniently ignoring the fact that it’s a very difficult thing to achieve in practice.

  40. http://insidestory.org.au/housing-first-takes-second-place

    A stralia’s shocking homelessness statistics – one in every two hundred people homeless at any one time, and a staggering one in eight without a home at some point in their lives – are a reminder that the homeless are not just the people we see on the streets. Around 7000 individuals might be sleeping rough on any given night, but many more have ad hoc arrangements with family and friends or are in boarding houses or other temporary or substandard dwellings.

    Ultimately, what is needed in Australia is a recognition by politicians and the public that growing inequality is contributing to the lack of progress on homelessness and its consequences. Policy-makers and bean-counters at all levels of government need to examine what poor housing and homelessness are costing their budgets, taking a wide view to cover health, welfare and social justice costs, and adding a large measure of compassion and forward vision. Then we might see some action on this blight to our society.

    Tackling homelessness is not a political priority because it does not change the vote of the swinging voters in marginal electorates

  41. …it certainly isn’t something even the Premier can just ‘do’. Andrews has gone as far as he can by expelling Nardella from caucus.

  44. Morning all. On the energy mess, one of the proposed solutions advocated by the past has been nuclear power. I have been interested in this for some time as Finland has been building an advanced nuclear reactor that will produce much less waste. Unfortunately, after more than five years of delay, the claims of the nuclear industry are proving false. They can make Gen II reactors safe but not cheap. That hope appears to be an illusion. The French builder Areva is being broken up. John Quiggin sums up the issues here.
    http://johnquiggin.com/2017/03/20/hope-springs-eternal/

    Given the real costs it is clearly better to stick to renewables, which are now far cheaper. We could update to a smart grid that accomodated the frequency stability issues for far less cost than building a nuclear reactor.

  45. The Right think they own the memory of the Anzacs and are able to conscript them to whatever cause they currently have a bee in their bonnet about.

    Isn’t that slightly outrageous? The usual question – just imagine the furore if Labor tried it.

  47. C@Tmomma
    Wednesday, March 22, 2017 at 8:58 am
    The Greens Gestetner is on the early shift this morning.

    Actually I agree with Pegasus on the issue of Nardella and Languiller. They are an ongoing distraction to the government at the moment and it would help a lot if they would just do the decent thing and bugger off. (and in Nardella’s case, pay the money back).

    The Andrews government is a good Labor government (it must be, even Rex approves) and Victoria cannot afford to end up with another Liberal mob in power by default in two years time, who will no doubt try to wreck Tafe again and generally run the state for the benefit of their spiv mates like they did last time.

    The Andrews government has been through some very difficult times over the last year or so and these two clowns are not making it any easier.

  48. Pegasus
    #83 Wednesday, March 22, 2017 at 8:51 am
    Bob Brown interview on ABC RN Breakfast program:

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/environmental-groups-form-alliance-to-oppose-adani-coal-mine/8375468

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/22/former-greens-leader-bob-brown-to-launch-coalition-to-oppose-adani-coalmine

    The former Greens leader Bob Brown will launch a new alliance of 13 environmental groups opposed to Adani’s Carmichael coalmine on Wednesday in Canberra.

    The Stop Adani Alliance will lobby against the coalmine in northern Queensland, citing new polling that shows three-quarters of Australians oppose subsidies for the mine when told the government plans to loan its owners $1bn

    I don’t blame Bob Brown for giving up on the Greens. They are totally useless with Di Natale as leader.

    Tom.

  49. I must agree with Pegasus too. Languiller’s case is sad and due to an unfortunate combination of personal circumstances and their timing. He has paid the money back and I accept there was nonintention to defraud. But Nardella appears to have quite cynically worked the system for years, taking up to $200,000. This is where the sense of entitlement shows up. People who did that in non-parliamentary or CEO careers would be savked by now.

  50. steve777 @ #95 Wednesday, March 22, 2017 at 9:09 am

    The Right think they own the memory of the Anzacs and are able to conscript them to whatever cause they currently have a bee in their bonnet about.
    Isn’t that slightly outrageous? The usual question – just imagine the furore if Labor tried it.

    I just love it when they bleat that the diggers “fought and died for ‘this’ flag” meaning the current Australian flag.
    Fact is that even in WWII the Union Jack was widely flown and the Australian flag was the ‘Red Ensign’. Our current flag became official only in 1953.

Comments Page 2 of 39
1 2 3 … 39

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *