Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

After a career-threatening result for Malcolm Turnbull three weeks ago, Newspoll records the Coalition bouncing back to near-competitiveness.

Newspoll records a much improved result for the Coalition, with Labor’s two-party lead cut from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 37%, Labor is down two to 35%, One Nation are steady on 10%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and down two on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down one to 29% and up one to 57%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has improved from 40-33 to 43-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1819. Report from The Australian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 19
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  1. The question BB raised yesterday also answered by Danny Price (advisor to SA Govt):

    In spite of the paucity of information about how the proposal will operate, many people, including environmental groups, reacted enthusiastically. This was surprising and premature as Snowy 2.0 will represent a massive load on the system, equivalent to a large aluminium smelter. This is because Snowy 2.0 will probably use about 30 per cent more electricity pumping water up a hill than it generates letting it flow back down a hill

    The truth is that Snowy 2.0 breathes new life into coal.

    AFR (Paywall): http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/snowy-20-is-halfbaked-and-damaging-answer-to-the-energy-crisis-danny-price-20170319-gv1bva?utm_source=TractionNext&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Worm-Subscribe-200317

    or Google whatever bits of the link you need to bypass the wall

  3. Haha, subtle.

    Guardian correspondent Paul Karp asks Turnbull why not go a step further and ban payments from companies to political parties (if you think secret payments have a corrupting influence on outcomes)?

    You are not seriously suggesting to me that a corrupting benefit should be allowed as long as it is disclosed? Is that what you are putting to us?

    Why do you assume (political donations) don’t impact on public policy outcomes?

    I wouldn’t have thought there would be anybody here actually defending employers paying bribes to unions, but there it is. It is a broad church. Chris Uhlmann?

    Turnbull refuses to answer any further questions from Paul and goes to Chris…

  4. “This is why you need a competent Attorney General, to advise ministers when they are being idiots.”
    I’d settle for an incompetent one who did not mislead parliament.

  5. re Toad of Toad Hall’s diary. From BK’s link. How convenient.

    A spokesman for Brandis said Dreyfus had been told some meetings would not have appeared in the diary because they were scheduled at short notice.

  6. PhoenixRed
    “He beat off a whole field of Republican challengers ”

    Trump is still beating off. Just look at his wire-tapping allegations against Obama.

  7. It will be interesting to see how the statement by Senator Cash plays out given that Bill Shorten was cleared of any wrong doing by the very RC that she is using yo justify the new legislation.

    Cheers.

  8. Lenore Taylor was dismissed by Stutchbury when she argued that Japan was getting our gas cheaper than we are.

    Treasurer Scott Morrison last year declared he would urgently look into the matter. He’s called a review to get to the bottom of why soaring exports have coincided with a halving in the resources rent tax collections.

    Verrender sets out the whole disaster for him in plain words.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-20/ian-verrender-how-the-free-market-failed-australia/8368032

  9. .@TurnbullMalcolm says the power of ‘cashed up militant unions’ is getting greater and the ‘lawless culture’ is taking over Labor movement

    Where’s his proof?

  10. lizzie @ #108 Monday, March 20, 2017 at 10:33 am

    Verrender sets out the whole disaster for him in plain words.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-20/ian-verrender-how-the-free-market-failed-australia/8368032

    Thanks, lizzie! Just how bizarre is this …

    The upshot is that we now are paying more than Japanese manufacturers for our own gas. In fact, power company AGL is actively considering buying Australian gas in Japan and shipping it back home. And why not? It’s cheaper there.

    You have to laugh, because the only alternative is to weep.

  11. kakuru
    Monday, March 20, 2017 at 10:31 am
    PhoenixRed
    “He beat off a whole field of Republican challengers ”
    Trump is still beating off. Just look at his wire-tapping allegations against Obama.

    *****************************************
    Yep – he is a liar, a snake oil salesman, a horrible slew of personality disorders, an embarrassment blah blah ……. but he is bit by bit implementing all the **nasties** that the Republicans stand for – and until he is used up his ‘usefulness’ to them and goodwill towards his dedicated public followers who still believe his BS – they will do nothing to relieve him of his post ….

  12. ‘Penalty rates were a key factor for voters in the recent Western Australian state election, a new exit poll commissioned by the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) shows.

    More than half (52.2%) of voters considered the penalty rates decision either somewhat important or very important to how they cast their vote.’

    ‘… of serious concern to voters was the worry that the cuts would spread further than retail, pharmacy and hospitality, with 68.1% of voters saying penalty rate cuts will spread to other industries.’

    Move along, nothing to see here, the election was fought purely on state issues….

    http://www.actu.org.au/actu-media/media-releases/2017/penalty-rates-cuts-devastating-for-coalition-in-wa-new-poll-shows

  15. Jim Chalmers MP‏Verified account
    @JEChalmers

    Ordinary Australians will be disgusted to learn Malcolm Turnbull wants them to foot a $4b interest bill on his $50b big business tax cut

    Chalmers has put out a media release about the extra interest charges.

  16. Zoomster

    Go figure. Who would have thunked it! No wonder the perennial opportunist Sen X has changed his mind on penalty rates!

  17. frednk @ #32 Monday, March 20, 2017 at 6:39 am

    We lost because we didn’t privatize western power?
    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/mike-nahan-drops-bombshell-about-colin-barnett-and-why-the-libs-lost-20170319-gv1bzc.html

    Someone needs to put a service call in for the water cooler at Liberal HQ.

    They think they lost the last election because they didn’t break enough promises or make enough unpopular decision? Good luck with that attitude at the next election.

  18. Lizzie

    I’ve only heard the Vanstone hour a couple of times (‘Counterpoint’ on RN)

    That it’s called ‘Counterpoint’ says it all.

  22. zoomster @ #112 Monday, March 20, 2017 at 10:42 am

    ‘Penalty rates were a key factor for voters in the recent Western Australian state election, a new exit poll commissioned by the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) shows.
    More than half (52.2%) of voters considered the penalty rates decision either somewhat important or very important to how they cast their vote.’
    ‘… of serious concern to voters was the worry that the cuts would spread further than retail, pharmacy and hospitality, with 68.1% of voters saying penalty rate cuts will spread to other industries.’
    Move along, nothing to see here, the election was fought purely on state issues….
    http://www.actu.org.au/actu-media/media-releases/2017/penalty-rates-cuts-devastating-for-coalition-in-wa-new-poll-shows

    I have my doubts about this Zoomster. I live in an outer suburban seat with a much higher than state average unemployment rate and the penalty rates issue was never brought up with me while I was door knocking. The reason for that may be that Metronet, the centrepiece of Labor’s reelection platform immediately benefited this seat more than any other in Perth, so it may have sucked all the available oxygen for penalty rates or other issues.

    Briefly or others who were active on the campaign trail during the election may be able to provide some better insight into the issues that commonly came up in seats that were not as directly affected by a major election promise.

  24. lizzie @ #115 Monday, March 20, 2017 at 10:47 am

    Ordinary Australians will be disgusted to learn Malcolm Turnbull wants them to foot a $4b interest bill on his $50b big business tax cut

    I think I have spotted Mal’s re-election strategy. Last week he promised to spend $2 billion and got a lift of 2% in the polls.

    He obviously now thinks that if he spends $54 billion, he will get a lift of 54% in the polls, which will be enough to get him to just over 100%

    He has obviously confiscated Joe Hockey’s old calculator from Scott Morrison.

  25. itzadream @ #119 Monday, March 20, 2017 at 10:59 am

    I admire this woman enormously. After 30 years as director of the Kirkcton Road Centre, a Kings Cross centre providing health care to the marginalised, drugs users, and health care workers, Prof Ingrid van Beek calls for drug use to be decriminalised.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-19/time-for-drug-decriminalisation-says-health-provider-van-beek/8367808

    I had a run in with painkiller addition after a serious motor vehicle accident years ago. I was lucky to have a GP who had the good sense to treat it as a health problem. It does not surprise me in the least that the approach of the justice system has been a catastrophic failure in treating addition.

    The sooner we accept that drug addition is a serious medical problem and not a character failing, the sooner we can stop pissing billions up against the wall on approaches that don’t work.

  26. Comey confronts an angry Congress

    The FBI director testifies Monday as members of both parties accuse him of being less than forthcoming about Russia-related probes.

    He’s expected to be asked to confirm or deny the existence of criminal investigations into Trump or his campaign aides over ties to Moscow, though several committee members said Comey will likely decline to comment because doing so could undermine active probes.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/james-comey-testifies-congress-russia-probes-fbi-236189

  28. Guytaur,

    Now is the time to email Liberal MPs, and we’ve launched a new, targeted campaign to make it easy for you: http://www.demandafreevote.com.au

    According to news reports, Government MPs are at loggerheads over the issue with MPs who oppose marriage equality attempting to silence supportive MPs.

    We want the Liberals to have a free vote so marriage equality can pass.

    That’s why we have a new campaign urging Liberals who support marriage equality to speak up.

    Already, half a million Australians have seen the campaign and 100,000 have shared it online.

    Please send an email through http://www.demandafreevote.com.au and share our campaign online.

    PLEASE SEND AN EMAIL TODAY FOR MAXIMUM IMPACT.

    You can use this form as often as you want. For example, you can use it to send MPs important pro-marriage equality news articles from your area.

    You can keep the pressure up AND keep MPs informed on the issue.

    We understand how frustrating it is that we still have to campaign for marriage equality when so many other countries have already achieved the reform.

    But we won’t win equality unless we keep the issue in front of politicians so they can’t ignore it.

    A great way is to start using http://www.demandafreevote.com.au

    Thanks for your support and here’s a to quick resolution to the marriage equality campaign.

    Best wishes,

    Rodney Croome, just.equal
    Shelley Argent, PFLAG

  29. On the drug debate. Kennett speaking on 24 about it now. He just praised Bob Carr for his courage in establishing the Kings Cross injecting room

  30. victoria,

    Cash is very selective in her recollection of a lot of things. Investment house what investment house !

    Anyway, this was never going to be a easy fight but I would rather have my money on Shorten, labor and the union movement than on pissant Cash and co.

    Just the battle Shorten has trained and engaged in his whole working life.

    Cheers.

  31. Apparently Turnbull has said he’ll make it a criminal offence for a union to accept donations ‘with a corrupting motive’.

    I don’t know where to start with that one…

  33. zoomster

    Its a good thing Labor are on the front foot regarding corruption having listened (I know Labor has been slower than the Greens on this but they are on the right page)

    Now Labor can argue lets target all corruption not just that in unions. Starting with real time disclosure and limiting donations to $3000 or less for individuals.

    Strong response putting starkly the hypocritical IR dog whistle status front and centre.

  35. Zoomster

    Limiting donations for individuals makes it harder for the likes of Kerry Packer to make large donations. Its making an equal playing field so Millionaires have to really work to get more influence than the average voter.

  36. I remember the days when the political fight was all about winning the 10 per cent undecideds – the remainder were 45 per cent rusted ons to both majors.
    Today the undecideds, or uncommitted, are closer to 30 per cent – with the majors hovering just over 30 per cent each.
    It’s become personal. Who do we want as Premier – Colin or Mark, Campbell or Anastasia, Daniel or Matthew and so on. Who do we want as PM – Kevin or John, Julia or Tony, Malcolm or Bill?
    I don’t think it’s wether we want a Liberal or Labor Government. It’s about who we want as Leader.
    That’s why PPM polling is relevant and central to politics. It’s not everything, but it has consequence.
    If by years end the 2pp is around 50/50 – not out of the question – and PPM still has Turnbull in front, there will be speculation, commentary, questions and pressure on Shorten.
    For the Gallery, it’s what they live for – leadership stories. And for one reason – click bait, eye balls and personal relevance. It always conquers the ebb of the daily political news and gossip and someone ” slamming” someone, that most Australians flick past.

  37. guytaur

    Limiting the amount individuals can put in makes chasing the corporate dollar more attractive, which I would have thought would have been more of a threat than Kerry Packer.

  38. zoomster

    Chasing the corporate dollar is always more attractive. Sure have a uniform donation level. I have no problems with that.

  39. Its making an equal playing field

    Exactly this.

    Limiting the amount individuals can put in makes chasing the corporate dollar more attractive

    Which is why in addition to limiting individual contributions you also need to have an outright ban on corporate donations (and union donations, and [any other non-natural-person sourced] donations). A corporate entity doesn’t get to cast a vote in elections; they don’t need a political voice.

    The individual members of the corporation (or union, or whatever else) are of course free to contribute to whatever political cause they wish, as individuals and subject to standard individual donation limits. Then you have a level playing field for everyone, and large concentrations of capital don’t give a small number of people an unfair advantage or a disproportionately loud voice.

  40. AR

    Good point.

    However donations to unions community organisations to run political advertising must be an exception. Otherwise the corporations get advantaged in the advertising space.

  41. victoria @ #114 Monday, March 20, 2017 at 10:45 am

    Doyley
    Has Cash forgotten about the millions of dollars spent going after Shorten in the RC?

    I would imagine that her “evidence” is the stuff from the Royal Commission which found most accusations, and all against Shorten, baseless.

    Basically, recycled crap.

  42. A look at why Trump is getting what he wants re claims such as the wire tap..

    How News Organizations Inadvertently Spread “Alternative Facts”

    Behavioral science suggests that despite Trump offering no substantive facts for his claim, the mainstream media’s current coverage will get him what he craves. …………….To understand why current coverage helps Trump get what he wants, let’s consider some typical examples of how the accusations have been covered

    https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/how-news-organizations-inadvertently-spread-alternative-facts/

  45. But that is a technical question – what is the least amount of gas use required to maintain a stable network?

    For dynamic stability (frequncy, voltage and small-signal), with the current technology mix (i.e. no verified delivery of synthetic inertia), you need at least 20% of power delivered by rotating mass.
    Whether that is driven by steam, gas or water doesn’t matter.

    For reliability (backup) it really does depend on where you are talking and the details of the generation mix.

  48. Also from Scientific American not renewableeconomy.

    Amid fears of rolling blackouts across the nation’s second-largest metro area and beyond, utilities like Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric latched on to a solution that for years had been quietly deployed, but needed an event like a looming gas shortage to be thrust into prime time.
    The solution was large-scale battery storage.
    Thanks in part to California’s crisis, but also improving economics and new state policies, the technology is preparing for unprecedented growth in the United States over the next several years. As much as 1,800 megawatts of new energy storage — mostly from lithium-ion batteries — is expected to come online by 2021, according to GTM Research, which tracks the sector for the Energy Storage Association.
    That’s eight times larger than total U.S. installed energy storage capacity in 2016 and should translate into nearly 5,900 megawatt-hours of stored electricity that can be dispatched quickly to address power outages, shave peak demand charges or simply enhance grid reliability, according to experts.
    Energy storage is also critical to solving the intermittency challenges associated with renewable energy. That’s because batteries can smooth the ebbs and flows associated with wind and solar power by supplementing the grid when those resources are not available.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/battery-storage-poised-to-expand-rapidly/

  49. Basically, recycled crap

    Yep, usual sordid recycle crap to try and blunt the upping of the penalty rate attack from Labor today.

  50. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has improved from 40-33 to 43-29.

    That’s a terrible result for Shorten.

    So terrible the left will soon have no choice but to act on this long running leadership problem with Shorten.

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