Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

After a career-threatening result for Malcolm Turnbull three weeks ago, Newspoll records the Coalition bouncing back to near-competitiveness.

Newspoll records a much improved result for the Coalition, with Labor’s two-party lead cut from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 37%, Labor is down two to 35%, One Nation are steady on 10%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and down two on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down one to 29% and up one to 57%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has improved from 40-33 to 43-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1819. Report from The Australian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 19
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  1. Antonbrucken:

    Precisely what I was referring to. I wonder if he will start doing it to Lenore Taylor or Gabrielle Chan.

  2. Cud

    I’ll just try to mention some very standard bits about it there –

    * Getting it to Manchester/Liverpool will happen. Just stalled because of Brexit;

    * Going up the west coast from Liverpool to Glascow (220 miles) provides bugger all return for the English tax-payer but would be hugely advantageous to Scotland; and

    * In the S-E there are problems re’ moving people/freight between HS1 & HS2 (and Heathrow and Southampton).

    Everybody sees ‘fast trains’ and thinks passengers … but it’s about the freight!

    Current thought is now about after HS2, that’s up the Pennines to Leeds. Bridges on the way up (almost all passengers) but tunnels back so a huge amount of power can be captured on the downhill. So some different train design will be needed.

  3. @Grimace

    Flow batteries don’t suffer degradation in their storage capacity over their useful working life and are designed to go to 100% depth of discharge without damage, but have worse round trip efficiency than lithium batteries.

    Flow batteries do degrade somewhat, though not exactly capacity wise, however, they have moving parts that needs replacing and the layer separating the two solutions needs to be checked every once in a while. This adds to the maintenance cost.

  4. MarkDiStef: Labor are going to use MPI for 18C, so expect a lot of MPs to give very honest stories about their experiences with racism this afternoon.

  5. Even Fox News Abandons Wiretapping Lie, Fires Analyst That Pushed Trump’s Claim

    According to a report from the Los Angeles Times, the right-wing “news” organization has fired senior judicial analyst Judge Andrew Napolitano after perpetuating Trump’s false wiretapping claim during a series of segments last week.

    Fox News appears to have given up on the bogus wiretapping allegation – leaving Trump with nobody left to cite.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/03/20/fox-stand-wiretapping-lie-fire-analyst-pushed-trumps-claim.html

  6. Just when the union-bashing thing was starting to get traction (with McManus’ gaffe providing an easy opening), the govt switches focus and hands the ALP a gift: 18C.

  7. Main difference between harass and the terms intended for repeal, is that harass requires repeated actions.

    So you can insult, offend or humiliate 100 different people once, but if you insult, offend or humiliate one person 100 times, there will be protection.

    But aside from how idiotic a policy this is, I’m just going to focus on the idiotic politics of it.

    1) Why the fuck would you announce it on Harmony Day? Idiots.

    2) Why would you announce it, knowing full well it will not pass the Senate?

    3) Why say ‘this is not a big priority for us’, knowing full well it will not pass the senate, and the only possible way to pass it is with substantial, lengthy negotiations with NXT and the other crossbenchers.

    At a guess, the right just want to ensure that the 52 Newspoll result is a blip so that PM Dutton has enough time to implement his agenda before being booted out at the next election.

  8. Trog, I had forgotten the problem of breakdown of transmission lines as occurred in SA. Therefore batteries should be closer to the end users. The batteries could still be owned by the generators, but not co-located with the actual generator.

  10. That’s a maximum figure, as stated in the report. The same report gives solar a 28-32% maximum capacity figure (depending on technology), and wind a 42% maximum capacity figure. The sensitivity of the costing to the capacity factor is discussed extensively in the report.

    Yes, and the difference between LCOE for wind and CCGT was what, $2? And $7 to wind?

    Given that there is much greater uncertainty around capacity factors for the thermal technologies that are increasingly used for balancing, CCGT is hardly a clear-cut winner on bulk energy provision terms (which LCOE is used for).

    Add to that the operational effect of significantly reduced emissions from coal in the presence of storage, due to less thermal cycling of coal generators, which could also be put towards balancing renewables, and I think it is clear that gas is not a panacea. Moreover, its greater capital cost and exposure to carbon pricing makes it a higher risk option than storage + renewables.

    And that’s it for today.

  12. Kakuru,

    The government have been pounding Shorten with their “Union thug” cannon to no avail for years. They really had to support the penalty rate decision to keep the cannon maintained. Apart from some Trumpy thumping in parliament, I don’t think it’s a winner.

  13. * In the S-E there are problems re’ moving people/freight between HS1 & HS2 (and Heathrow and Southampton).

    Otherwise known as Victorian-era red brick bridges!

    This time I’m really going.

  14. Question Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 1:45 pm
    Kakuru,
    The government have been pounding Shorten with their “Union thug” cannon to no avail for years. They really had to support the penalty rate decision to keep the cannon maintained. Apart from some Trumpy thumping in parliament, I don’t think it’s a winner.

    ********************************************
    ….. but does it bleed some votes ????? …… or deter some otherwise ALP type voters ????

  15. Q
    “The government have been pounding Shorten with their “Union thug” cannon to no avail for years. They really had to support the penalty rate decision to keep the cannon maintained. Apart from some Trumpy thumping in parliament, I don’t think it’s a winner.”

    It gave the government an opportunity to go into attack mode, instead of being on the defensive (its default setting).
    I do agree with you on the broader point. If a full-blown RC couldn’t bring Shorten down, these skirmishes over his union ties won’t cut the mustard.

  16. Like I said, doesn’t this mean that, this week, the Liberal-Nat TPP must have been about 43% That’s a hell of a long way from newspoll

  17. peebee @ #673 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 1:05 pm

    JayKay, you have very amazing and fecund grass. I have only mowed my lawn twice in three months and it is still looking trim.

    We must have the same sort of grass as KJ. I am on the mower most days. We have had a lot of rain up here, and no really cold nights to tell the grass to switch off its growing phase.

    Roll on winter.

  18. Love that some media knob has finally woken up to the plebiscite hole Turnbull dug himself into. Now we just need someone to ask him what he has against democracy.

  19. Trog Sorrenson Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 1:05 pm

    Good points about battery efficiency.
    If you had pumped hydro co-located with wind or solar, then this would be the best of both worlds. Once you have to transmit/trade energy through the market then efficiency – both electrical and financial – drops considerably.
    Or, as Trump would say, bigly.

    I’m all for rolling out renewables, including solar and wind, as fast as possible. I’m also interested in pumped storage as a complement to them. However, I’m not sure there’s much scope for co-location. It’s my guess that the benefits in locating each at their optimum location would often exceed any transmission losses between generation and storage.

  20. Raaraa

    Essential
    Has a good team of leaders LIB 33% ALP 41% DIFF -8

    Low numbers, but it puts the PPM into perspective. Shorten is good at the team stuff.

    All of that table is good reading…

    Looks after the interests of working people LIB 30% ALP 61%

  21. libertarian unionist @ #710 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 1:42 pm

    Yes, and the difference between LCOE for wind and CCGT was what, $2? And $7 to wind?

    You are missing the “+ storage” part of Trog’s claim …

    Ex Hazelwood boss says solar + storage already cheaper than gas

    This is the part that really blows the claim out of the water. Worrying about a few dollars of generation cost is neither here nor there – it partly, as you point out – depends on the capacity factor. But (again using AEMO figures) storage adds between $161 (battery) and $216 (pumped hydro) per MWh delivered.

  22. Said before he got the job that Turnbull would be a worse PM than Abbott.

    Anyone want to argue against that? Thoroughly rotten louse. God there are a lot of wood ducks out there to get sucked in by such an obvious fraud.

  23. Agreed PhoenixRED & Kakuru.

    I think it’s mainly playing to the base, but I’m confident penalty rates will win more votes for the ALP than L-NP.

  24. Ratsak,

    Turnbull’s “All things to all people” has quickly morphed into “what in hell does he stand for?” At least with Abbott you knew.

  26. TimWattsMP: Do you think this is how Malcolm Turnbull imagined it would be to be the PM? Passionately championing the right to be a bigot? #qt

  31. question @ #728 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 2:07 pm

    Again in Essential.
    More L-NP voters support a gas reservation than ALP or GRN? Bloody socialists : )

    Interesting, but there is pretty overwhelming approval right across the board. A few percent between the parties when there is overall 75% approval probably means little, but perhaps there are more actual labor voters who depend on the coal industry for a living?

  33. I think there must be an error in the gas reservation numbers (my last post). The total number is lower than all the “by vote” numbers on the table. My guess is the L-NP number should be lower.
    Total approve 75% (impossible average of other numbers)
    ALP 76%
    L-NP 82%
    GRN 79%
    OTH 77%

  37. LU

    Otherwise known as Victorian-era red brick bridges!

    This time I’m really going.

    Some very silly bits of real estate got sold off, that is the problem.

  38. KJBar: PM Turnbull: ‘My Government – and I believe all Australians are absolutely opposed to racism in any form.” #qt #18c

  39. dkrolph: Re: the removal of ‘humiliate’ from 18C, it is still defamatory under Australian law to expose someone to ridicule. #auslaw

  40. I do think there needs to be some change to the wording as the current law seems to base an offense on someone else’s subjective state. I would remove the word “offend” or qualify it with the Clapham omnibus test. But to replace it with harrass completely changes the meaning and intent.

  42. TimWattsMP: Do you think this is how Malcolm Turnbull imagined it would be to be the PM? Passionately championing the right to be a bigot? #qt

    Do you think Malcolm cares a jot? He just wanted to be PM. It is, was, and always will be a vanity project. Who he had to stomp on to get there, how much destruction he caused before, during, or after. None of this even registers with the flea.

    Malcolm got to BE PM. That makes him better than all you peasants. The only consideration now is to make it last as long as possible.

  43. According the Guardians website the last time the Coalitions primary vote was an equally low 34%, was December 2009, so lowest coalition primary in 7years and 3m according to Essential

  44. shiftaling @ #740 Tuesday, March 21, 2017 at 2:32 pm

    I do think there needs to be some change to the wording as the current law seems to base an offense on someone else’s subjective state. I would remove the word “offend” or qualify it with the Clapham omnibus test. But to replace it with harrass completely changes the meaning and intent.

    The only reason why a change of wording is even an issue is that it has been co-opted by the IPA and the right wing ideologues as a weapon in their culture wars. The only demonstrable problem with sections 18C and 18D now are the procedures. There is no problem, other than purely theoretical and ideological ones, with the language as it stands.

  48. Bug1,
    According the Guardians website the last time the Coalitions primary vote was an equally low 34%, was December 2009, so lowest coalition primary in 7years and 3m according to Essential

    I seem to remember that was just prior to Malcolm getting the Royal Order of the Boot last time.

  49. Our treasurer really is clueless

    “They want to see small businesses pay more tax. They want to say medium-sized businesses pay more tax. They want to put a tax on jobs and a tax on incomes.”

    Labor supports the tax cuts for small-medium businesses. They have not advocated for more taxes for large businesses – their policy is ‘unchanged’ taxes for large businesses.

    The only way a ‘tax on jobs’ has meaning is referring to payroll tax. To the best of my knowledge, Labor and the Liberals have no policy on payroll tax other than business as usual.

    The idea of Labor wanting to ‘put a tax on incomes’ is hardly terrifying? I thought we already had one, called the ‘income tax’. Good to know that I don’t have to pay this under the Liberals. I wonder if I can get a refund on all my tax returns since the Libs got in?

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