ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia

A new poll conducted in WA records very substantial federal wash-up from state Labor’s landslide last weekend.

The weekend edition of The West Australian has results of a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia, presumably conducted on Thursday night. It shows Labor with a lead of 53-47, which if borne out would amount to a 7.6% swing compared with last year’s election. I’m not sure about a federal poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of a state election, but there it is. More detail to follow.

UPDATE: After exclusion of 3.2% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 38.7%, Nationals 5.1%, Labor 35.7%, Greens 11.6% and One Nation 5.3%. The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 54.5-45.5 as preferred prime minister; Turnbull rated very good or good by 29.3%, average by 37.2% and poor or very poor by 33.5%; Shorten respectively coming in at 27.7%, 36.7% and 35.6%; and 75.5% rating it very important, 17.0% somewhat important, 5.6% “indifferent” and 1.9% not at all important that Western Australia get a bigger share of GST revenue. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 1554.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

813 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia”

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  1. matt @ #14 Saturday, March 18, 2017 at 2:36 am

    BC @11:51 – The phrase might be, but the reality really isn’t! Today’s Labor Party can’t even bring itself to defend the ACTU – how they can claim to be a party of democratic socialism is beyond me!!

    Even getting their names right is apparently beyond you in your @13.

  2. phoenixRed

    Trump has only been President for less than two months and he and his cronies are wrecking the joint.
    My view is that if there is sufficient evidence that he is a crook and a traitor, they shouldn’t waste anymore time in dealing with Trump. Too much is now at risk.
    GOP Members such as John McCain and Lindsay Graham know what the stakes are. They are looking at the country above the party. Trump is a treasonous narcisstic meglomaniac. His Presidency needs to end

  3. “I think that President Obama is owed an apology”: GOP congressman calls on President Trump to apologize for wiretapping accusation

    The White House has grown increasingly isolated in its defense of Trump’s unsubstantiated claims

    Republican Rep. Tom Cole has not seen any evidence that suggests former President Barack Obama wiretapped the Republican nominee during the 2016 presidential election

    “It’s not a charge I would have ever made,” Cole told reporters. “And, frankly, unless you can produce some pretty compelling proof, then I think that President Obama is owed an apology in that regard because, if he didn’t do it, we shouldn’t be reckless in accusations that he did,” Cole said.

  4. I should also add the Trump making these accusations against Obama and UK intell etc. basically confirms that he knows what evidence they have on him. He is simply attempting to muddy the waters, and poison the well.
    He could save a lot of angst and resign forthwith

  5. If the ABC bought The Australian they would then have to sack 90% of the ‘journalists’ employed there. Otherwise it would immediately be guilty of breaching its Charter of fairness & balance etc.

  6. victoria Saturday, March 18, 2017 at 9:35 am


    Trump has only been President for less than two months and he and his cronies are wrecking the joint.

    Totally agree with your judgements, Victoria …… oafish buffoon Trump in DC/Miami …… Tillersonn ‘sabre rattling’ in Asia, upcoming budget that looks like punishing a lot of already poor Americans etc etc ……

    There are some signs of the natives getting restless – McCain, Graham, Cole …….. and now he has upset his source of news/policy – Fox News …… got the Brits Intel offside …… the list goes on and on

    I hope Mondays (US) meeting has enough ammunition to put a few more black marks against his name and give enough Republicans the spine to do something to turf him out of office

  7. Morning all.

    Real Time returns today after a week’s break. Looks like a good panel with Jake Tapper and Andrew Sullivan, along with a couple of current and former Democrat reps.

  8. Andrews government quid pro quo with Crown Resorts and developer:

    Crown Resorts saved itself millions of dollars under a special deal granted to it by Planning Minister Richard Wynne to build Melbourne’s biggest skyscraper.

    With the assistance of lobbyist and former Labor Party national secretary Karl Bitar, Crown and its development partner Schiavello withdrew an application through the normal channels to build the new hotel and apartment tower in Southbank.

    It resubmitted that application last year, and made a special request to Mr Wynne to change the planning rules that applied to the Southbank site, at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street.

    Mr Wynne and Premier Daniel Andrews obliged.

  9. PhoenixRed

    I have no sense yet whether Comey will make any important public statements when he comes before the hearing on Monday US time. My concern is that with the damage being done with each passing day

  10. ABC Newsradio have been playing repeatedly comments from Joel Fitzgibbon that the states should hand over policy making on energy to the Commonwealth. This does not seem like a smart comment for him to be making at this time. Of course, in a perfect world, this might be desirable. But 1-is it even practical and 2-could it not lead to some of the issues we’ve had with the national energy market on steroids? I should point out at this point that I am talking from South Australia, and of course we have been on the receiving end of national market failure. Politically though I can see this being used by Turnbull and the Liberals to push their idea of a national policy, with lower renewable energy targets etc. I might be right off the mark here, but his comments just seem unhelpful and poorly timed.

  11. PhoenixRed

    I should add that I have always felt that there is firm and incontrovertible evidence that Trump is a first class crook and a traitor to his country.
    I feel it more so now.

  12. The trend is there – ordinary citizens are pushing back against the political status quo.

    Nothing is permanent in politics, no matter how fundamental some things seem, and that includes the status and identity of the two major parties. The rising minor party vote is sending a loud and clear signal that voters are deeply unsatisfied with current political status quo. If the two major parties listen to that signal and respond with courage and tact, stability may eventually return. Ignore it and most of what we take for granted in our political system will be up for radical change.

  13. victoria Saturday, March 18, 2017 at 9:55 am

    I have no sense yet whether Comey will make any important public statements when he comes before the hearing on Monday US time. My concern is that with the damage being done with each passing day

    Going by comments on Louise Mensch’s site – its unlikely – at least in public – that Comey/FBI will confirm or deny anything ….. however observers that have seen Senators come out of private meetings with Comey say the Senators looked pretty grim …


    Senior opposition frontbencher Joel Fitzgibbon has sounded a warning to Labor colleagues about the planned closure of four coal-fired power plants in the NSW Hunter region, claiming an “urgent­” transition to gas rather than renewables is needed to avoid an energy crisis for jobs and manufacturing.

    Breaking ranks with Labor policy, the member for the seat of Hunter raised his concerns in the Labor caucus two weeks ago as the opposition faced pressure from the government over its 50 per cent renewable energy target and support for an emissions intensity scheme.

    Mr Fitzgibbon, the opposition agriculture spokesman, said Labor could not afford to “get ahead of the public” on the issue of renewable energy or engage in “overreach” on climate change.

    While backing plans for greater investment in renewable energy, he appeared to take a veiled swipe at state Labor colleagues over moratoria on the extraction of onshore gas reserves, claiming “we need to get more gas out of the ground”./

  15. Citizen,
    Franchising seems to be a fairly ruthless business with pressure on franchisees and their employees. (I’m not saying this was the case for the two Muffin Break stores that closed). The other issue is the pressure that shopping mall owners put on shop owners.

    Franchising sure is a ruthless game! Not only do Franchisees have to pay the Franchisor a cut of their store’s takings, but they have to pay for all the store livery up-front, not to mention the other normal costs and overheads of running a business.

    Which ties in with your second point. Greedy shopping centre owners. For example, since the beginning of this year we have had an independent butcher in our local shopping centre close down, even though they were busy and successful, because of a combination between Coles and Woolworths driving down the costs of their meat products, plus the Shopping Centre Management putting up the rent on their premises beyond which they could afford to keep their freezers running (on electricity or gas which have both had price hikes as we have been reading about), pay their staff and for the owners to make a reasonable profit. In the end the sums no longer added up.

    Same went for the local donuts and coffee franchise in the shopping centre. They were getting by, until the Centre Management raised their rent. Again.

    Another one bites the dust.

    Sure, it seems like the Economy is doing well, especially here in NSW, but all I can see is straws being loaded onto the camel’s back, and I think sooner rather than later the straw that broke the camel’s back will drop and it’s back-breaking demise will reverberate throughout the whole Economy.

  16. It has occurred to me that if you were to assume Turnbull to be absolutely clueless about science and technology it would explain a lot.
    – Granting money to a dodgy rain-making experiment
    – Saying that his NBN prescription would deliver
    – deserting carbon trading for stupid technological fixes
    – not even realising that his grand Snowy 2.0 effectively sinks fossil fuel power generation
    I’m sure there are other examples.
    Not great for someone who invented the Internet is Australia

    The only other explanation is that he doesn’t have any views at all apart from winning (as discussed much here recently) – in that case he would be the quintessential barrister, which (come to thiok of it) isn’t so different from my opening proposition (ducks to avoid the bricks thrown by the legal eagles).

  17. Good morning all,

    It should be a interesting week ahead in Canberra.

    It is obvious that Turnbull and co will be going hard at Shorten and at labor in general over its connections to the union movement after the ” shocking ” statements this week from Salky McManus. Amid all the hype and noise will be calls for Shorten to denounce McManus and the union movement etc etc etc.

    I do not know how successful this will be given that NAB and Westpac have raised rates outside of the RBA cycle.

    On one hand Turnbull screaming at Shorten to denounce the union movement over statements made by the head of the ACTU yet on the other hand Turnbull continues to protect the big banks and rejects calls for a RC. Add to this the governments now clear support for the penalty rate cuts thanks to Turnbull yesterday and a very clear difference in priorities is laid clear and plain.

    Interesting battle indeed awaits next week.


  18. The poll result is itself interesting, and not surprising. The federal coalition did amazingly little for WA under Howard and Abbott, yet they kept voting for them. Now the mining royalties are gone people finally realise they were being fleeced at state and federal level by team blue. Those lost taxes are not there to bail them out now the state economy is busted.

  19. PhoenixRed

    Yes I noticed Mensch’s comments re Comey. I am undecided as to whether it will play out in this way. It will ultimately depend if there is irrefutable evidence on the table.

  20. CNN Politics
    10 mins ·
    Coal lobbyist Andrew Wheeler was formerly an aide to Sen. Jim Inhofe, an outspoken climate change skeptic.

    And so of course Trump would be seriously considering him for the deputy head of the EPA!

  21. ‘ If the two major parties listen to that signal and respond with courage and tact, stability may eventually return. Ignore it and most of what we take for granted in our political system will be up for radical change.’

    Except the evidence appears to be that one major party is listening to the signal.

    And surely this should also be applied to the Greens – who are polling below expectations for this stage of the cycle.

  22. For those of you talking trash about Sanders.

    Sanders is part of the Democratic Party. His policy agenda was largely adopted.

    As for supporters attacking the establishment on Maddow or NPR (I forget which podcast it was) it was revealed that the attacks on Clinton by Sanders supporters metadata reveals they came from Eastern Europe.

    Part of the Russian operation to discredit the Democrats and Clinton.

  23. frednk @ #41 Saturday, March 18, 2017 at 8:56 am

    The site’s editor, Giles Parkinson, wrote: “By promoting pumped hydro, Turnbull is effectively signing the death knell for any new coal or gas fired generation built by the private sector, and is paving the way for a 100 per cent renewable energy grid, driven mostly by wind and solar.”

    Relying on RenewEconomy for unbiased reporting on renewables is like relying on the Daily Telegraph for unbiased reporting on … well … anything. I also note the wording change from “no new gas plants” to “no new gas plants built by the private sector. Those damned facts just keep smacking you guys in the face, don’t they?

    He cited an ANU expert, Andrew Blakers, in support: “It’s game over for gas, it’s game over for nuclear. Solar PV and wind have won the race.”

    I assume you are referring to Andrew Blaker’s ANU study that notoriously includes no time frame estimated to get to 100% renewables, except to point out that we will not get to 50% till 2030 (very bold prediction, since this is in fact ALP policy), and then beyond that predicts “It will take some time for wind and PV penetration to reach into the range 50-100% of annual energy in the NEM”. Very perceptive of him. What happened to “15 years”?

    Or perhaps you are referring to Andrew Blaker’s ANU study that notoriously assumes there will be no future increase in electricity demand and then goes on to predict large scale deployment of electric vehicles which will increase electricity demand by 40%? Nice to have a bob each way, isn’t it?

    Or perhaps you are referring to Andrew Blaker’s ANU study that says there are substantial cost savings to be made by “the occasional use of legacy coal and gas generators to charge the PHES reservoirs” in his “100% renewables plan”? This bloke just doesn’t want a bob each way, he wants to bet the whole bloody farm!

    Or perhaps you are referring to Andrew Blaker’s ANU study that says “… in some scenarios we assume that demand management (i.e. load shedding) is employed during critical periods, which are typically cold wet windless weeks in winter that occur once every few years. During these periods the PHES reservoirs run down to zero over a few days because there is insufficient wind and PV generation to recharge them, leading to a shortfall in supply.” and then recommends we reduce the NEM target for reliability to save money? Way to solve the “energy security” issue!

    Come on down P1; go read a few climate change denial sites; you should be able to get a few hints from them on how to counter the experts. I await your post with interest; I won’t respond, but I won’t scroll on by either.

    It’s endearing that you are so obsessed with me, but after your “peaking plant” howler, I’m not surprised you won’t respond.

  24. zoomster

    All those saying Sanders should run as in Independent have fallen for the Russian operation. Just like Clinton before him Sanders ran for President but accepted the party vote and backed Clinton for President.

    Its that simple.

    Saying Sanders should run as an independent because he is advocating for the policies accepted by the party is to trash talk him. Based on false news.

  25. Oh as an addition. The Russian operation also was used down ballot in states and congress so those Republicans in Congress suddenly learning their is more opposition in their ares as shown in Town Halls should not come as a surprise.

    People who may have not voted or voted for Trump because of false news have woken up. A good example is Healthcare. The truth that Obamacare and the ACA were one and the same did not get through to a lot of voters.

    Thats partly media coverage from the likes of Fox but its also false news operations.

  26. Thanks BK.

    One point in, I think Hartcher’s article, on the SA RET, is that it is purely aspirational, implying I assume, no subsidies at the state level. The investment in wind generation just happens to be concentrated in that state.
    It is as a consequence of the federal RET target. No wonder the SA government is so angry with the federals.
    That and Turnbull campaigning on renewables in the lead up to the last election.

    I think energy is close to becoming toxic for the Coalition, like Medicare and asylum seekers are for the ALP. It doesn’t matter what the issues are, when in the media, it is a net loss for them.
    It the ALP can achieve this it would be significant. A working federal energy policy would be better though.

  27. ‘Why do the agricultural minister and shadow seem so keen on gas ?’

    They understand the ‘minister’ part of the title just not the ‘agriculture’ part.

  28. Watching Trump with visiting leaders is like watching an episode of The Office…. or listening to nails on blackboard. I can not bear it. I have to turn it off.

  29. “peaking plant” howler,

    Bullshit semantics – typical look over here crap from P1.
    The plant is designed as a peaker and will be used as a peaker – because it also just exists as a threat to the market spivs and only cuts in as a peaker at specific price points, doesn’t mean it stops being a peaker.
    If I take a bag of spuds to the local market in the boot of my car, my car does not instantly become a “truck”. It is still a fucking car.
    What a complete waste of time dealing with this nutter – cluttering up the blog with a bunch of turgid crap that goes nowhere and completely failing to answer any specific questions. Feisty woman? Hardly. Feisty is a term I would reserve for someone who bravely stands up for a point of view, is prepared to admit mistakes, and is intellectually honest. “Intellectually honest” is not a term that can be applied to P1.

  30. Also as for Sanders being different than the Labor party.


    Universal Health Care.
    A proper Social Security system
    Regulations on Banks.
    Attacking tax cuts for multinationals.

    Just to name a few. Like it or not Sanders has a lot in common with the Labor party. I like it because it means the US is moving towards a more sane society that has a party that has support for attacking inequality

  31. @socrates, people of WA are not ‘finally realising’, they are protest voting.

    Like in QLD, they have gone back to LNP+PHON nutters.

  32. Dan Gulberry,
    Dragonista tried to come over all hip and early to the party on Twitter. She was exposed as just another Liberal mouthpiece looking for a steady income after the Howard government’s demise when she started Blocking Tweeps who didn’t fall under her spell. The Thin Dark Duchess masquerading behind a Morticia Adams gravatar was exposed as just another middle-aged Conservative White Woman carrying a little too much weight and not enough by way of a true challenge to the Coalition status quo. Hence I take what she now writes under her real name with the biggest grain of salt.

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