ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia

A new poll conducted in WA records very substantial federal wash-up from state Labor’s landslide last weekend.

The weekend edition of The West Australian has results of a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia, presumably conducted on Thursday night. It shows Labor with a lead of 53-47, which if borne out would amount to a 7.6% swing compared with last year’s election. I’m not sure about a federal poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of a state election, but there it is. More detail to follow.

UPDATE: After exclusion of 3.2% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 38.7%, Nationals 5.1%, Labor 35.7%, Greens 11.6% and One Nation 5.3%. The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 54.5-45.5 as preferred prime minister; Turnbull rated very good or good by 29.3%, average by 37.2% and poor or very poor by 33.5%; Shorten respectively coming in at 27.7%, 36.7% and 35.6%; and 75.5% rating it very important, 17.0% somewhat important, 5.6% “indifferent” and 1.9% not at all important that Western Australia get a bigger share of GST revenue. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 1554.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

813 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia”

Comments Page 15 of 17
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  1. CTar1

    Slaughtering the residents of the town/village/city you just conquered was pretty SOP in the good old days. Good old Ghengis was a master at it. Crusaders weren’t to shabby either but then neither were their opponents

  2. PR@693:
    Interestingly, most of the BW research outside Japan & Russia was focused on animal disease (mainly anthrax & glanders) until well after WW2, hence the predominance of vets in the field. The last known deliberate use of BW agents was in the “tribal” regions of Zimbabwe during the civil war – when anthrax infected cattle cake developed in the UK & South Africa (Project Coast) was dropped in the field – resulting in a spike of human cases.

  3. rhwombat Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 5:36 pm
    PR@693:
    Interestingly, most of the BW research outside Japan & Russia was focused on animal disease (mainly anthrax & glanders) until well after WW2, hence the predominance of vets in the field. The last known deliberate use of BW agents was in the “tribal” regions of Zimbabwe during the civil war – when anthrax infected cattle cake developed in the UK & South Africa (Project Coast) was dropped in the field – resulting in a spike of human cases.

    **********************************************
    Maybe not biological – but there is still many lingering deaths/malformations with the US use in Iraq from ‘depleted uranium ”

    Fallujah, Iraq – Contamination from Depleted Uranium (DU) munitions and other military-related pollution is suspected of causing a sharp rises in congenital birth defects, cancer cases, and other illnesses throughout much of Iraq.

    IF you have the stomach to watch :

    Depleted Uranium birth defect epidemic IRAQ :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etR01pWgzVA

  4. PhoenixRED
    Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 3:36 pm

    Stone already preparing his excuse for destroying evidence, maybe the letter & email were sent via Moscow, that would account for the 1 month delay

    http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/324665-senate-panel-asks-trump-ally-roger-March 18..stone-to-preserve-russia-related-records
    ….Stone acknowledged that he received the letter this week even though it was dated Feb. 17, according to the Times, which said the letter was signed by Sen Richard Burr (R-N.C.), the chairman of the committee, and Sen. Mark Warner (Va.), the panel’s top Democrat.

  5. Aquasure need to remove this line from its website asap.
    “When not producing water, a comprehensive maintenance program guarantees the plant is available to produce water when the need arises”
    Totally contradicts what the Victorian Water Minister Lisa Neville has said today.

  6. Poroti

    Slaughtering the residents of the town/village/city you just conquered was pretty SOP in the good old days.

    Yep, and they weren’t so long ago.

    After Napoleon was defeated …

  7. So, is Malcolm still going to be PM at the end of this fortnight of sittings? The latest leak was a pretty biggie. Malcolm obviously wet himself when he saw it. We going to get a newspoll tonight?

  8. Aquasure chief executive Matt Brassington said it was “more rewarding” for staff at the plant to actually produce water rather than merely maintain the plant.

    Who gives a shit whether Aquasure staff find their job rewarding or not.

  9. C@t

    “Such a blinkered, Victoria-centric view.”

    The thread was about what was happening in Victoria.

    “Or is it simply that The Greens pamphleteer is blissfully and ignorantly overlooking the fact that NSW Labor have had a legislated ban on Developer donations for over a decade now?”

    I am well aware of this. The situation in NSW was irrelevant.

    fyi The Greens attempted to make amendments at the time, all of which were voted down by Labor and the Coalition.

    Since 2001 the New South Wales Greens have run a donations website, and its address is democracy4sale.org.

    ::::::::
    It has introduced two bills to ban donations from property developers to political parties, officials and candidates. In June 2008 the New South Wales Parliament passed two bills presented by the Labor government as the first stage of a political donations reform package. The Greens moved amendments to require continual disclosure of donations with the information set out on a public website, to ban corporate donations, place caps on election spending and require all candidates to continually disclose their donations in the two months leading up to an election, but the major parties combined forces to defeat these amendments.

    “Can’t let even a sliver of an enlightened and balanced perspective in on these matters, can we, Pegasus?

    The irony.

    Lizzie owned up to making the comment offending you so mightily. Just as well I don’t demand apologies for such personalised snark for something I didn’t even say. If the foot was on the other foot the howls of outrage would be deafening.

    Someone is “blinkered” but it isn’t me.

    Want me to broaden the scope relating to the issue under discussion. Here’s an update on what is recently occurred in NSW.

    12 May 2016: https://nsw.greens.org.au/news/nsw/labor-joins-liberals-oppose-banning-donations-mining-companies

    In light of Labor’s decision to vote with the Government against the Greens corruption risk reduction bill, Jamie Parker MP said it demonstrated a lack of political will to restore community confidence in political decision-making.

    The Member for Balmain, and Greens spokesperson on anti-corruption, recently introduced a private member’s bill aimed to reduce corruption in NSW by banning political donations from mining and petroleum companies. The state’s corruption watchdog, the Independent Commission Against Corruption, has previously highlighted the corruption risk faced by the mining and resource sector as it directly benefits from government decisions.

    The Mining and Petroleum Industry Political Donations Legislation Amendment (Corruption Risk Reduction) Bill 2015 extends to the mining and petroleum industry the current bans on political donations from the tobacco, alcohol, gambling and real estate development industries.

    Donations declared to the New South Wales Electoral Commission in the period 2003-14 include over $1 million donated from resources companies in general to Labor, Liberal and The Nationals; lobbyists donated $1.8 million; Minerals Council of New South Wales donated $120,000; AGL donated $123,000; New South Wales Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group donated $106,000; Sydney Gas donated $71,000; Nathan Tinkler donated $50,000; Santos donated $38,000; BHP donated $26,000; Xtrata donated $27,000; Centennial Coal donated $19,000 and Gugarat NRE donated $24,000.

  10. Maybe a little late, but can I give a candidate in the rather pointless debate about who was the most qualified Us president. James Buchanan, President 1856- 1861!
    He served as secretary of state , ambassador to both GB and Russia, and was a senator or congressman for most of the period 1814-1856! he was chairman of the House committee for the judiciary. A VERY qualified man!!
    He is regarded as one of the least competent Presidents, who supported the Dred Scott decision on Slavery, and whose administration was notably corrupt! Many regard his administration as bearing a heavy responsibility for the Civil war.

  11. PhoenixRed

    ‘depleted uranium’

    The weight carrying part of whacking armor plating – with a sharp hardened steel spear enclosed.

    You can get them in .50 to put a hole in most troop carriers.

  12. Up till now Truffles has continually called Shorten a hypocrite, but mostly in QT. I think we’ve moved a fair distance into panic mode (see also Weatherill 😉 ) when Truffles tweets that Shorten “always lies”.

  13. Taylormade @ 5.53 pm,

    I think it’s a good thing that a chief executive cares whether or not his staff find their job rewarding. I think productivity in general would improve if more CEOs took that much interest in their staff

  14. Increased stridency from Turnbull bespeaks a person under considerable stress. Who knows what’s going on in the background. Certainly not the CPG, or if they do know they’re not telling us so they can keep their insider credentials intact.

    Add in Dutton strutting his stuff during the week and I reckon there’s a fair chance of a leadership challenge in the wake of the Newspoll if it’s bad enough.

    Also Shorten, who probably DOES have a fair idea what’s going on in the background, has been ratcheting up the strength of his comments.

    It may all die away again, but I think there’s a fair chance of an explosion this time.

  15. “always lies”

    The hidden context is: “You know niggers, they always lie”.

    Such a stupid statement for Turnbull to make. Somewhere there is a dusty piece of paper from a focus group, conducted long ago. Turnbull may have it framed on the wall in his office. It sayssimply, “Any mention of Bill Shorten’s name is worth 2 points in Newspoll”.

    The naiveity of this stupid anti-Shorten,”Blame Bill For Everything” trope adds weight to my theory that Mark Simkin, ex ABC “impartial and fearless” political correspondent (now part ofTurnbull’s press battalion) is the “Brains” behind it.

  16. Bushfire

    The naiveity of this stupid anti-Shorten,”Blame Bill For Everything” trope adds weight to my theory that Mark Simkin, ex ABC “impartial and fearless” political correspondent (now part ofTurnbull’s press battalion) is the “Brains” behind it.

    I’d forgotten Simkin. Well, you would, wouldn’t you…

  17. I saw the pic of the tweets on the News Ltd article on Bill’s response.
    All that was incorrect was the time, the next Twitter Tirade ® will be at 3am.

    Bill’s response was good, Turnbull would not be happy.

  18. For those who missed Insiders.

    “We don’t have a base load station north of Rockhampton here. I want to continue to grow the economy … We’re going to want a base load power station at some time in the future.

    “We have got coal up here, the new clean coal technologies can {generate power} at a reliable price, affordable power and lower emissions. We should look at bringing those technologies in.”

    Despite Canavan’s enthusiasm for a coal power plant, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation has warned private investors are “very unlikely” to build them because coal plants are a risky investment and would therefore require direct subsidies from taxpayers.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/19/coalition-says-coal-subsidies-still-on-the-table-despite-snowy-hydro-plan?CMP=share_btn_tw

  19. Ajm,

    Whether he’s an extreme Blairite (whatever that is) or not, he did not miss and an his analysis of the situation is honets and unambiguous.

  20. Poroti – I think that, for most of the history, the rule has been that if a besieged city surrendered after a major breach in the wall, everyone would be spared; if it fought on, everyone could be massacred. In other words, you couldn’t force the besieger to suffer heavy losses and then put up your hands at the last moment. I can see the point of that.

  21. Talia‏ @2020fight · Mar 17

    Ivanka doesn’t work at the White House. She has no official job. She’s just the President’s kid. Yet, she’s sat in on 3 mtgs w/world leaders

    Perhaps her job is to read papers to Paw afterwards and explain the big words.

  22. Yep, killing everyone in a conquered city – although it did happen – wasn’t a common event. For most of history, you sold them as slaves. In that context, a dead body meant no profit.

  23. frednk @ #596 #596 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 1:57 pm


    briefly
    Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 10:41 am

    Don
    Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 10:36 am
    A11 and Poroti:
    As many have said of parts of the US population, ‘There’s no cure for stupid’.
    …and that is an example of elitist deprecation…In my opinion, it’s not possible to regard populations as innately stupid and still subscribe to democracy. As a democrat, the problem is to communicate with and persuade others. Belittling an audience is certainly unlikely to win their support.

    Any system of governance has to work with the fat that 50% of the population have below average IQ; by definition.

    Trump treated the majority of the US population as stupid, and he got to be POTUS.

  24. Lizzie – I don’t think there is any strategy behind blaming Shorten. Turnbull is a nasty shit who never takes responsibility for anything. This is Malcolm being himself.
    AJM – Yes, things are getting very febrile in the Liberal camp. The pensions leak was a big shot across Malcolm’s bow. Wouldn’t be surprised if someone does something very stupid very soon.

  25. Shorten is certainly playing the govt well. The Turnbull Experiment is in tatters and the coalition are not so silently tearing each other apart from the inside out.

    Even the Greens have lost the plot, with Di Natale losing a golden opportunity at the NPC to assert his party’s policy on renewable energy (in a week when politics was ALL about energy), and attack the craziness being offered by the govt, but chose instead to focus on a 4 day working week.

    The only rational party out there at the moment is Labor!

  26. ctar1 @ #684 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 4:34 pm

    On Military Tribunals: We kept on doing old fashioned ‘court-marshals’ on captured Japanese until 1949.
    That we stopped was a direct result of US intervention and their propaganda that most of the German people didn’t ‘know’ and that also they’d need to have bases in Japan to ward off the Russians (and mainland Chinese).

    …………………………………….

    Except many of them did know about ‘it’.

    Japanese newspapers carried graphic details of the rape of Nanking, including beheading completions between a number of murdering raping arseholes – all updated daily in “leading” Japanese newspapers with the count of chinese heads chopped off and who was leading the count.

    The newspapers even reported some of the murdering arseholes dropping from exhaustion from chopping so many heads.

    “Killing the Rising Sun: How America Vanquished World War II Japan” by Bill O’Reilly (yeah I know!) and Martin Dugard covers the above.

    Even after all this time many in Japan refuse to accept they did much wrong – as well know. Docos of IJA Vets cover ‘how much they enjoyed’ the above – no doubt also communicated to those at home in Japan.

    One of my favourite stories about the end of the war, was IJA troops waiting on docks to be shipped back home, bragging to the Chinese they’d be back, 5 years at the most. The Chinese shot them out of hand.

  27. Thanks for posting the transcript of Canavan. Seeing it in black and white is powerful.
    Given those comments from a member of cabinet, what chance of any meaningful response to the Finkel inquiry?

  28. Interesting how things have ramped up since the Snowy hydro ” nation building ” announcement from Turnbull.

    It would not surprise me that if very few within the government were aware it was coming or at the very least when. Caravan made the point today that coal was not forgotten in the governments energy plans.

    Perhaps a few within the government who are on the mining teat are not happy. Canavan is one who is upset and I wonder how Scott ” the coal man ” Morrison is feeling especially when Turnbull has ” lumped ” him with a plus $2 billion price tag to be added to the budget topay for hydro. The mining boys would not be happy.

    Cheers.

  29. Despite Canavan’s enthusiasm for a coal power plant, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation has warned private investors are “very unlikely” to build them because coal plants are a risky investment and would therefore require direct subsidies from taxpayers.

    That alone would mean they’d go for it. The coalition is rivaled only by the GOP in transferring funds from taxpayers to billion dollar investors, and for outdated industries.

  30. Who gives a shit whether Aquasure staff find their job rewarding or not.

    Aquasure staff, probably. And the entire management/executive team, if they’re halfway competent.

    Yep, killing everyone in a conquered city – although it did happen – wasn’t a common event. For most of history, you sold them as slaves.

    Which is still about as bad, ethically speaking, as just killing them all.

    Trump treated the majority of the US population as stupid, and he got to be POTUS.

    Yes, and Hillary treated them as intelligent enough to handle the truth, and got crucified for pointing out that some elements of the U.S. population aren’t actually that intelligent.

    Logic and politics don’t often go together.

  31. Pegasus,
    fyi The Greens attempted to make amendments at the time, all of which were voted down by Labor and the Coalition.

    Because they were claptrap. And likely Unconstitutional.

    ‘Ban corporate donations’

    The definition of ‘corporate’ from The Greens would be useful here. Is ‘Wotif’ a ‘corporate’? Is The Greens’ donor who used to own ‘Kathmandu’ a ‘corporate’, or now that she is the major shareholder in Bellamy’s Dairy Products, is that ‘corporate’ or not?

    Not to mention the number of Alternative Lifestyle businesses that no doubt donate to The Greens. How about ‘donations in kind’? What links are there and what support is given to The Greens from the likes of ‘Get Up’, the ACF, WWF, Sea Shepherd and other corporatised/incorporated organisations?

    Other than those, who would be exempt I am guessing from The Greens’ ban, am I right in surmising that The Greens want to ban donations from every other ‘corporate’ who doesn’t donate to them but donates to the Majors?

    ‘place caps on election spending’

    So that The Greens, who don’t get as many donations as the Labor, Liberal and Nationals parties, can surf along at election time on a guaranteed spigot of money and on the coat tails of the fundraisers in the other parties who have worked their butts off to raise funds for the party of their choice, such that those efforts are negated? Erm, no.

    require all candidates to continually disclose their donations in the two months leading up to an election

    So everyone donates in the 2 months + 1 day, in the lead-up to the election.

    Then there’s Jamie ‘The Watermelon’ Parker’s risible attempt at introducing legislation to ban the Mining and Petroleum Industry donating to political parties.

    They don’t need to! Although I note that they have in the past via your lumping in of all donations by them to, Labor, Liberal and National parties without any breakdown of which party got how much (knowing full well that most of that money went to the Liberals and the Nationals and not Labor, but hey, sleazy behaviour doesn’t end at the door of the Major parties, The Greens can smear with the best of them).

    As I said, in this instance, and has been demonstrated repeatedly in recent elections, the Mining and Petroleum Industry, like the Gambling Industry it must be added, don’t really need to donate to the political parties, they just run expensive campaigns at election time against whoever they want to.

    So how do The Greens propose to stop that? Because if they even try then, as I stated earlier, such prohibition would be Unconstitutional.

    Also, I will add for good measure, there is the ‘Implied Free Speech’ case which the Unions took all the way to the High Court and won against the government, which I am sure the ‘Corporates’ would take a close look at if The Greens ever tried to ban ‘Corporate donations’ to political parties or Corporate campaigns at election time.

    Finally, I do agree that real time donation transparency is a good thing. 🙂

  32. This seems like an obviously controversial choice:

    President Trump is expected to nominate the husband of White House counselor Kellyanne Conway, to run the Justice Department’s civil division, two sources familiar with the matter confirmed to CNN.

    If confirmed by the Senate, George Conway would lead an office that would handle legal challenges to major Trump administration initiatives, such as the controversial travel ban.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/19/politics/kellyanne-conway-husband-trump-role/index.html

    The U.S. needs better anti-nepotism laws.

  33. taylormade @ #706 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 5:48 pm

    Aquasure need to remove this line from its website asap.
    “When not producing water, a comprehensive maintenance program guarantees the plant is available to produce water when the need arises”
    Totally contradicts what the Victorian Water Minister Lisa Neville has said today.

    Your comprehension is worse that I had previously thought.

  34. Ratsak – I knew someone who was at high school with Malcolm when he was head prefect. He said that, on speech day, when Malcolm got up onto the stage, all the students booed!

  35. The U.S. needs better anti-nepotism laws.

    Trump is certainly testing what anti-nepotism rules they do have, isn’t he?

  36. Cat, don’t argue with Horsey over her cut and pastes. There’s no point.

    She hasn’t read them, just dutifully passed on undigested horse manure sent to her from Greenie Propaganda Headquarters.

  37. Dave

    It’s quite unfashionable to say so but the British C’wlth opinion on the Russians getting into Berlin first was the Germans get what they deserve (and so on Japan).

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