ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia

A new poll conducted in WA records very substantial federal wash-up from state Labor’s landslide last weekend.

The weekend edition of The West Australian has results of a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia, presumably conducted on Thursday night. It shows Labor with a lead of 53-47, which if borne out would amount to a 7.6% swing compared with last year’s election. I’m not sure about a federal poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of a state election, but there it is. More detail to follow.

UPDATE: After exclusion of 3.2% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 38.7%, Nationals 5.1%, Labor 35.7%, Greens 11.6% and One Nation 5.3%. The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 54.5-45.5 as preferred prime minister; Turnbull rated very good or good by 29.3%, average by 37.2% and poor or very poor by 33.5%; Shorten respectively coming in at 27.7%, 36.7% and 35.6%; and 75.5% rating it very important, 17.0% somewhat important, 5.6% “indifferent” and 1.9% not at all important that Western Australia get a bigger share of GST revenue. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 1554.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

813 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia”

Comments Page 13 of 17
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  1. I think Clinton was a very good candidate. Certainly better than any alternative in 2016, and more experienced than many recent candidates, including her husband. It does seem a bit of a stretch to say she was the most highly qualified candidate ever, though.

    Johnson had 3 years as vice-president, 6 years as Senate majority leader and over 20 years in congress behind him.

    Eisenhower had been Supreme Commander of the Allied forces in Europe during WWII, and then the first commander of NATO.

    It would be hard to argue that anyone since has been better qualified than either of these two.

  2. Once Turnbull has to admit costings were done then it will all blow up on him. All Turnbull had to do was stay quiet and leave any response to the relevant Minister (s).

    Morrison is in Baden-baden doing G20 stuff and you can bet Corrmann will be saying ‘zip’ after last weekends Lib master plan was ‘executed’.

  3. Of course, since Obama made the claim that Hillary was the most qualified candidate ever (the silly man), there are a HUGE number of articles analysing the question, just a google away.

    Whatever your bias is, there’ll be one to suit.

  4. PP

    I think Herbert Hoover is hard to beat, too — but he didn’t make a particularly good President!

    As I said earlier, it’s actually not hard to refute the argument using actual examples, I was just a bit amused that that wasn’t really attempted…

  5. b.c. @ #402 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 1:45 am

    I don’t know if anyone has linked to this in the past. It’s a really interesting piece on why left economics won’t defeat racism and nationalism. It also explains why the US has so little social welfare.
    No easy answers: why left-wing economics is not the answer to right-wing populism http://www.vox.com/world/2017/3/13/14698812/bernie-trump-corbyn-left-wing-populism

    Thanks B.C. Frustrating read, but it made a fair bit of sense.

  6. Turnbull’s Twitter Tirade ® reminds me of his comment on Weatherill during the week: I understand that the Premier’s conduct spoke volumes about the Premier’s state of mind at the moment.”

    I wonder what you would say about someone who consistently projects a particular image while a minister and then when becoming PM renounces that completely becoming someone else.

  7. Great to see the Hillary stuff rolling on and the Hillary haters twisting themselves in absurd nonsense trying to avoid the obvious and objectively fair conclusion that Clinton is and was one of the top tier best qualified candidates for President. Not alone in that class, but definitely in the class.

  8. wwp – I don’t even know what “qualified” means in the context of being president. You’ve either got it or you don’t. Qualifications don’t matter.

  9. Here’s the link to the leak.

    A leaked costings measure for the May budget shows pensioners would lose out under a proposal to cut payments and remove concession cards from some welfare recipients.

    News Corp has reported the government considered the savings measure, which would target anyone who received a fortnightly payment of less than $20.02.

    Pensioners on a payment this low is entitled to the Pensioner Concession Card which provides lower-cost medicines and discounts on motor vehicle registration, drivers’ licences and council rates.

    If the costings measure was passed it would mean these pensioners would no longer be able to use the concession card.

    I have a little sympathy for the government here. I don’t see why the comparatively rich should have all the same concessions as the really poor.

    https://startsat60.com/trending/news/government-document-reveals-plans-to-cut-age-pension

  10. One comment only from me on Clinton – what was under estimated was a desire for change.

    Clintons’ offering was ‘more of the same’ and she would have won over a ‘standard’ Republican candidate.

    But a good percentage of those motivated to vote were ‘sick’ of more of the same and her luck in vote distribution finished her off.

    ‘Cards’ thrown in the air.

  11. Turnbull is probably right in saying there is no plan to “cut” the age pension.

    The plan is to make it harder to qualify for. Slight difference.

    Many of those receiving a small part pension wil have already had it reduced as a result of the asset test changes in place since January.

    For them it won’t be about the 20 bucks but the loss of fringe benefits like concession cards.

    Good luck trying to sell that idea to people who are already feeling aggrieved.

  12. ” I don’t even know what “qualified” means in the context of being president. You’ve either got it or you don’t. Qualifications don’t matter.”
    Yeah, nah. In common with every other job anywhere ever, there are a set of skills and ability and a knowledge base that makes one able to do the job well (ie qualified).

  13. Rossmcg

    You’re right. The fringe benefits far outweigh the $20.
    Which government allowed all this? Sound like Howard?

  14. cupidstunt @ #592 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 1:45 pm

    The way of the future instead of penalty rates?? http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/coles-manager-asks-staff-to-work-for-pizza-on-a-sunday-weeks-after-penalty-rates-were-cut/news-story/fe2a0f73af792e49e20bb5462c045606

    Years ago, I was 15 working for a national fast food chain one of the managers bought me a bottle of bourbon to do a 3 hour shift for him. I haven’t been near bourbon since.

  15. a r @ #595 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 1:53 pm

    The premise you need to prove, however, is that there is a Presidential candidate out there who, as a package (not one arbitrary metric), is/was ‘better’ than Clinton.

    I think that has it backwards. Since Clinton is one candidate out of many, all other things being equal then statistically speaking the default premise should be that Clinton is not the best candidate ever.
    If the claim is that one specific candidate is better than all the others, then that’s what needs to be proven because it’s less plausible than the alternative. You don’t need to show that there’s one candidate better than Clinton, you need to show that Clinton is better than every single one of them.

    I think we can all agree that comparing candidates between elections, decades and centuries is pointless. I does fill a lot of empty column inches and slots on 24 hour news networks though.

    Its just as annoying as comparing sport players between era’s.

  16. Watching Stutchbury on iView late this afternoon. I can see why he is an ‘Insider’. He seems to be completely inside the Murdoch ideological mindset and can’t see his way out even when shown some sensible, rational commentary by Lenore Taylor.

  17. So in addition to the child care ‘reforms’, the government also wants to pass the company tax cuts. Should be interesting.
    I assume that due to the lack of coverage, the legislation hasn’t been revealed yet.

  18. Rossmcg

    During the Labor years ANYTHING that was proposed, suggested or even hinted at which affected the self funded retirees demographic had the outrage dial turned up to 11. Especially on shoutback radio stations like 2GB.

  19. lizzie @ #611 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 2:32 pm

    Here’s the link to the leak.

    A leaked costings measure for the May budget shows pensioners would lose out under a proposal to cut payments and remove concession cards from some welfare recipients.
    News Corp has reported the government considered the savings measure, which would target anyone who received a fortnightly payment of less than $20.02.
    Pensioners on a payment this low is entitled to the Pensioner Concession Card which provides lower-cost medicines and discounts on motor vehicle registration, drivers’ licences and council rates.
    If the costings measure was passed it would mean these pensioners would no longer be able to use the concession card.

    I have a little sympathy for the government here. I don’t see why the comparatively rich should have all the same concessions as the really poor.
    https://startsat60.com/trending/news/government-document-reveals-plans-to-cut-age-pension

    So giving the pension the salami treatment is OK?
    Just pare it back one slice at a time.

  20. It sounds like Malcolm is a bit nervous about spending 2 weeks with his party colleagues. Why might that be. Anyone thing that a bad newspoll and he’ll be rissolled?

  21. From what I understand, if your only getting 20 a week in pension, and you lose your concession card, it would be a massive blow. Be MUCH better to lose the pension itself. Pensions in that territory would be up in arms.

  22. bemused @ #597 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 1:59 pm

    grimace @ #588 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 1:37 pm

    pegasus @ #554 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 12:43 pm

    Given the lack of resonse to my question earlier, I take it Albanese has not publicly aired his views re the Sally McManus furore?
    Unionists might be a tad dismayed that a supposed self-described warrior for the workers has no spine.

    I’ve had a couple of days to think over Mcmanus’ comments regarding breaking unjust laws and have come around to agreeing with them.
    The problem for her is that she made the comments in the context of a media environment which focuses on simplistic “gotcha” moments and this leaves Shorten, Albanese et al. in a difficult position.
    My immediate response was the comment was a bad look, I then went on to think about it and realised that there have been very few advances in the rights of the common person that have occurred without both violent and non violent civil disobedience. Ask yourself, where would female or Aboriginal emancipation be without both violent and non violent civil disobedience? Does anyone really think female or Aboriginal emancipation would have happened if they had just asked nicely to be given the vote, to be paid wages at all, to be paid equal wages, to be allowed to own property etc?

    She should simply have used the word ‘oppose’ instead of break.
    She fell into a simple trap where her whole message was lost in a lot of hyperventilation over one word.
    Also a major distraction for the ALP and Shorten.

    Agree its a major distraction for the ALP and Shorten. Turnbull and the Liberals were in the midst of another clanger and one word wrong has sucked oxygen from that discussion. Fortunately the energy discussion (it hasn’t been a debate for a long time)is a slow burn issue that will continue to hurt the Liberals all the way to the next election.

    Fortunately we didn’t have to wait long for the next clanger from Liberal HQ.

    I do realise that you should never interrupt with your opponent when they are in the process of destroying themselves. Its a problem for Labor that if they followed this strictly then they’d very rarely get to say anything.

  23. “I don’t see why the comparatively rich should have all the same concessions as the really poor.”
    This is the trick. Don’t measure need, or quality of life and determine whether the poorest are being looked after ok (they aren’t by international developed world standards we are way at the nasty stingy end of the league table) and at what levels of income and wealth it is appropriate to scale back the support as unnecessary and over generous. No don’t actually think. Which is Christian Porters key skill, not thinking just attacking.

  24. peter piper @ #601 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 2:09 pm

    I think Clinton was a very good candidate. Certainly better than any alternative in 2016, and more experienced than many recent candidates, including her husband. It does seem a bit of a stretch to say she was the most highly qualified candidate ever, though.
    Johnson had 3 years as vice-president, 6 years as Senate majority leader and over 20 years in congress behind him.
    Eisenhower had been Supreme Commander of the Allied forces in Europe during WWII, and then the first commander of NATO.
    It would be hard to argue that anyone since has been better qualified than either of these two.

    Completely disagree on Eisenhower. When you are a General in the military everyone has to do what you say regardless of their own personal feelings. Just like a successful career in business (and in particular closely held private businesses) is often not a good indicator of future success in politics.

  25. john reidy @ #606 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 2:26 pm

    Turnbull’s Twitter Tirade ® reminds me of his comment on Weatherill during the week: I understand that the Premier’s conduct spoke volumes about the Premier’s state of mind at the moment.”
    I wonder what you would say about someone who consistently projects a particular image while a minister and then when becoming PM renounces that completely becoming someone else.

    Turnbull is busy attacking others personally and without reference to a policy disagreement. A clear indication that he knows the numbers are being done in the background and his days are numbered.

    Pass the popcorn.

  26. Pegasus,
    I agree that the influence of developers and their donations should be reined in. I wish Labor would work on it.

    Such a blinkered, Victoria-centric view. Or is it simply that The Greens pamphleteer is blissfully and ignorantly overlooking the fact that NSW Labor have had a legislated ban on Developer donations for over a decade now?

    Can’t let even a sliver of an enlightened and balanced perspective in on these matters, can we, Pegasus? Congratulate Labor for something? Heaven forfend!

  27. antonbruckner11 @ #625 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 2:50 pm

    From what I understand, if your only getting 20 a week in pension, and you lose your concession card, it would be a massive blow. Be MUCH better to lose the pension itself. Pensions in that territory would be up in arms.

    It’s a matter of security. Older people can be terrified of potential medical costs. They may not use the health care card for some years, but it provides security that they won’t be stripped of all their savings if a medical emergency arises.

  28. C@Tmomma

    I can’t let Pegasus be blamed for something I wrote. I was unaware that NSW Labor already have a developers’ ban.

  29. Anton,

    Exactly.
    Self funded superannuants will more likely live in Liberal seats. The advantage of the Pension for these people regardless of the modest payment is about the perks. History has shown that this cohort is definitely keen to preserve their privileges whether deserved or not. They have lots of spare time and can reek havoc within the Lib party and their community.

  30. The irony of the pension plan is that it would attack part of the coalition’s core constituency.

    Anyone receiving only $20 a fortnight in age pension will have substantial assets. They will most likely have benefitted greatly from the superannuation tax changes brought in by Howard and Costello and it is widely perceived they still vote coaltion in gratitude.

    I have a few former colleagues whose part pension was reduced when the asset test was tightened in January and they swear they will never vote coalition again. One Nation is a likely home for them.

  31. Grimace

    Just like a successful career in business (and in particular closely held private businesses) is often not a good indicator of future success in politics.

    You’r not thinking of Truffles and Trump are you ? 😆

    But seriously, you are right. In their business’ they are in effect dictators, surrounded by people wholly beholden to them, people who have an incentive to keep the boss happy. “Yes boss , great idea boss”.

  32. TPOF – Lots of the older people I know seem to spend most of their days in specialist’s waiting rooms. So it means $400 here and $500 there. That can turn into really big dough.

  33. https://www.yourlifechoices.com.au/government/centrelink/how-do-i-know-which-concession-card-i-am-eligible-for

    Concession cards are as valuable as any income support payment you will receive – the discounts offered by governments, local councils, utility companies and private businesses can amount to considerable savings over the year.
    You can save on the cost of prescription medication, car registration, public transport, rates, energy bills and be eligible for bulk billing by medical practioners and these are just a few of the concession offered. As local governments and councils, and private business offer many of the concessions available, they will vary depending on where you live.

    In victoria, ambulances are free to pensioners.

  34. Lizzie,
    I can’t let Pegasus be blamed for something I wrote. I was unaware that NSW Labor already have a developers’ ban.

    Okay. 🙂

    It’s exactly that ban which ensnared so many Liberal MPs and got them hauled before ICAC in NSW. Also led to the diversion of Property Developers’ donations to the Foundation which is located in Canberra, then back up to NSW.

    All of which has been uncovered by investigative journalists.

    So a very effective piece of legislation.

  35. Late Riser

    No easy answers: why left-wing economics is not the answer to right-wing populism

    One thing that should be taken into account in this debate is the rising power of the elites concomitant with the rise in inequality. They have taken control of the media and the politics – a good example being the Citizens United decision in the US which ultimately led to the election of Donald Trump.
    Once the people get kicked in the guts – as Trump voters are about to be in the US – then they will stop taking the conservative Kool AID and be more inclined to listen to the progressive economic agenda.

  36. C@Tmomma
    🙂
    It’s not just developers, although they have caused immense planning (social) harm. Miners, too… and… and…

  37. So, the Turnbull government want to keep the $20 or less Pension Payment but eliminate the Concessions that the people who get that amount or less, get? Such that it allowed Turnbull to say the story which said an Aged Pension cut was on the cards was not true? Hmm. Interesting semantic defense.

    In the same week that the Turnbull government is demanding that Labor and the parliament pass the $50 Billion Tax Cut for their Business mates and donors? Hmm, chutzpah timing to the max!

  38. Grimace,

    People may have to do what you tell them in the military, but you still have to do a good job if you want to get elected. If Germany had have defeated the Allies, I am quite sure Eisenhower wouldn’t have become President.

    Eisenhower had 2 landslide victories and is unquestionably one of the best US Presidents ever.

  39. Market Forces‏ @market_forces · 21h21 hours ago

    As @Barnaby_Joyce goes into bat for coal seam gas, remember that @SantosLtd have donated $568,857 to the LNP since 2010 #CSG

  40. poroti @ #635 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 3:01 pm

    Grimace

    Just like a successful career in business (and in particular closely held private businesses) is often not a good indicator of future success in politics.

    You’r not thinking of Truffles and Trump are you ? 😆
    But seriously, you are right. In their business’ they are in effect dictators, surrounded by people wholly beholden to them, people who have an incentive to keep the boss happy. “Yes boss , great idea boss”.

    Truffles and Trump in this category? Never!! 😀

    One of the reasons we end up with so many lawyers and union representatives in parliament is that they spend their entire working lives negotiating, so their skill set is a natural fit in politics where you almost always have to negotiate to get what you want.

    The left and its union representatives have always been better at negotiating because the entirety of their working lives have been spent negotiating from a position of weakness, so when they end up in Parliament and are in a position where the person they are negotiating with has a vested interest in not giving them what they want, they have vast experience in persuading them to move their position to something more acceptable.

    Trump, Turnbull and others have always been in the position of dicators and have rarely had to negotiate to get what they want, thus the problems that this tpye of person has in politics.

  41. Trog Sorrenson
    But where will they turn ? Perhaps even more extreme pollies .There are shrines to Bill Clinton and Tony Blair in boardrooms across The City and Wall St. So for those two countries the “natural” party of the left is not such a clear cut alternative.

  42. Lizzie,
    Developers is a good place to start, and, as we found in NSW, a lot of Developers also bought into Mining, so we killed 2 birds with one stone! 🙂

  43. peter piper @ #643 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 3:15 pm

    Grimace,
    People may have to do what you tell them in the military, but you still have to do a good job if you want to get elected. If Germany had have defeated the Allies, I am quite sure Eisenhower wouldn’t have become President.
    Eisenhower had 2 landslide victories and is unquestionably one of the best US Presidents ever.

    Good officers in the military do not rely on throwing orders around. That is not leadership but bullying.
    I saw a documentary on the German raider, the Emden. The Captain of the Emden was never known to have issued a direct order. He just made his wishes known and his crew willingly complied.
    That is leadership.

  44. momma,

    I suspect the Tax cuts for big business are just more “Zombie” legislation that the Government knows will never be passed but they can show they are true believers to their party membership.

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