ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia

A new poll conducted in WA records very substantial federal wash-up from state Labor’s landslide last weekend.

The weekend edition of The West Australian has results of a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia, presumably conducted on Thursday night. It shows Labor with a lead of 53-47, which if borne out would amount to a 7.6% swing compared with last year’s election. I’m not sure about a federal poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of a state election, but there it is. More detail to follow.

UPDATE: After exclusion of 3.2% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 38.7%, Nationals 5.1%, Labor 35.7%, Greens 11.6% and One Nation 5.3%. The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 54.5-45.5 as preferred prime minister; Turnbull rated very good or good by 29.3%, average by 37.2% and poor or very poor by 33.5%; Shorten respectively coming in at 27.7%, 36.7% and 35.6%; and 75.5% rating it very important, 17.0% somewhat important, 5.6% “indifferent” and 1.9% not at all important that Western Australia get a bigger share of GST revenue. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 1554.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

813 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia”

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  1. The problem for the press gallery. You keep promoting the denialist lines on climate change and reality catches up with you.

  2. Lizzie
    If you were a pissed tanker captain who drove his vessel onto the Reef affecting maybe a few hundred meters, you’d maybe end up in jail, but at the very least your company would get fined a few million.
    Palaszczuk and the Feds are aiding and abetting the destruction of the entire reef by supporting the Adani mine – and according to half the population, that’s OK.
    Queenslanders will really start screaming when the tourism industry goes down the gurgler.
    Palaszczuk should be working her arse off to promote sustainable industries in these areas, not supporting the mine.

  3. zoomster:

    I didn’t hear her interview, only saw comments about it here. Her reaction does seem somewhat defensive though.

  4. Nicholas
    Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 10:52 am

    This is a rant. What it does is to validate the proposition that workers’ problems are caused by “the others” – by the spectre of competition from abroad. This in fact echoes the rants of Trump and the Brexiteers and, perversely, justifies the repressions they advocate.

  5. TurnbullMalcolm: And sadly, I can also assure you that you can always rely on Bill Shorten to lie.

    Oh dear as twitter has reacted.

    rdhinds: @TurnbullMalcolm Oh dear. Someone has advised Malcolm to get Trumpy with his tweets. Won’t end well.

  6. Confessions

    Sorry redoing.

    Calling people trolls for pointing out your mistake days after it happened is very defensive.

  7. Trog

    My concern is that the Adani mine will be given legal rights just before the fate of the Reef is taken seriously by Qld-ers. Oh dear, how sad. 🙁

  8. There have been several instances of US + UK agencies getting around restrictions on spying on their own citizens by getting each other to do it .

    [Citation(s) Needed]

  9. Was Canavan asked on Insiders about energy policy?

    Only story I can find was him talking about dutton and ME.

    If that’s the case dutton’s outburst achieved what I suspect was its aim: diversion tactic.

  10. Sabra Lane‏Verified account @SabraLane 20h20 hours ago
    Ok Trolls. Yes, I said wind was a “non-renewable resource” during an i/v – an obvious misspeak. But knock yourselves out.

    Gee, good to know that should a politician come on her program and ‘mis-speak’ (twice), Saaaaaabraaaaa will be manning the barricades to defend said polly from all the ‘trolls’ that wanted to tear them apart.

    [/sarcasm]

  11. TurnbullMalcolm: And sadly, I can also assure you that you can always rely on Bill Shorten to lie.

    The funny thing is that Turnbull still thinks there are more than half a dozen people in the world (outside of the CPG) who treat anything he says seriously.

  12. [Confessions
    Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 10:50 am
    Before the election, Trump told his base that they would get something better than Obamacare.
    He didn’t just say they’d get something better, but that it would be cheaper and cover more people. And he said this repeatedly.]

    This sounds just like the Liberals’ promises over Fraudband.

  13. poroti @ #459 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 10:29 am

    Don
    Many of them would have got the impression from their media that Obamacare was sending the US down the path to socialism and they “know” the US has “the best healthcare system, in the world” so no changes needed.

    I have an American based in Ohio working for me, and I know a number of them casually/socially. They really are convinced that their healthcare system is the best in the world.

    Over the years I’ve had a number of discussions about healthcare, and universal healthcare, it really is unbelievable what the average American believes about healthcare. For many Amercians, everything they know about universal healthcare has been told to them by people and organisations who have a vested interest in the status quo. Compounding that problem is a culture of extreme individualism.

    In one memorable and perfectly civil discussion about healthcare, one American acquaintance said wtte “…how about you pay for your own healthcare and I’ll pay for my own healthcare”.

  14. Malcolm Turnbull
    37 mins ·
    A report today that the government is cutting the aged pension is false and we outright reject it.

    I can assure all aged pensioners the measure reported will NOT be in the Budget.

    We assured the journalist too, but she insisted on writing the story.

    And sadly, I can also assure you that you can always rely on Bill Shorten to lie.

    One to watch for in the budget to see what they actually do, rather than what they say.

  15. Of course, Malcolm meant to put it like this:

    ‘Shorten has HUGE problems, the number of lies he tells. Sad.’

    He’s progressing – given up channeling Churchill and moving Trumpwards.

  16. fess

    Oh dear – I hadn’t seen the full quote. The media lies, Bill Shorten lies, only Turnbull tells the truth — further down the Trump road than I thought!

  17. Nicholas
    Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 10:59 am
    Even the World Bank’s conclusion about the role of external trade in lifting millions of Chinese people out of poverty is:

    No clear evidence that greater external trade openness brought rapid gains to the poor.

    What factors HAVE contributed significantly to poverty reduction in China?

    1. reducing population growth
    2. increasing domestic industrial production
    3. increasing government-provided social benefits to citizens
    4. land re-distribution reforms that transferred land to poor farmers who previously had little or no land

    This seriously romanticises the actual process of economic development in China, a process that has been driven by the forced resumption of agricultural land and very rapid urbanisation of the population. Hundreds of millions of agricultural workers who had some form of locally-recognised economic security have been transformed into an industrial, urban labour force with virtually no social, political or industrial rights of any kind. It is as if all of feudal Europe from the Caucasus to the Atlantic, from the Arctic Circle to Sicily to had been industrialised and introduced to 19th-century capitalism in a single lifetime.

    In relation to land “re-distribution”, I can mention one gentleman I know. He is retired now. While employed he held the position of Administrator of Titles in the bureaucracy of a small city in South China. He was responsible for the confiscation of agricultural lands around this city and its subdivision and re-release for urban development on behalf of the municipal government. He was able to take a significant share of the monetary value created by this process by virtue of his office. More than 1/2 a million peasants were dispossessed and turned into landless migrant labour in the environs of this city. He is the wealthiest person I will likely ever meet, being worth a reputed US$8 billion when I met him in 2012. He was a bureaucrat in a titles office. Good work if you can get it.

  18. He’s progressing – given up channeling Churchill and moving Trumpwards.

    But he’s still doing it wrong. That’s Trump’s campaign strategy. His leadership strategy would be to dismiss the paper as fake news:

    More fake news from DISHONEST MEDIA. No changes to pension. Don’t believe lies!!!

    Poor Turnbull, can’t even tell the difference between running an election campaign and leading a government anymore.

  19. A R

    Will try and track it down. It was several years back and was either Wikilieaks or Greenwald. One of the agencies was by US law unable to spy on US citizens and it was how they got around it.

  20. rossmcg @ #470 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 10:43 am

    State Government stitched up in deal with property developer
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/hundreds-of-millions-unaccounted-for-from-kew-cottages-20170317-gv0ljn.html
    Fancy that

    There was massive opposition to that proposal from the parents and guardians of the Kew Cottages residents.
    I thought at the time it smelt bad as just another looming example of poor implementation of “de-institutionalisation” and indeed, the flawed concept of it.
    I also felt it would be unlikely to see the promised financial benefits to the government.

  21. And look at the property developer’s friends.

    Indeed.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/hundreds-of-millions-unaccounted-for-from-kew-cottages-20170317-gv0ljn.html

    A one-time regular Sunday morning coffee companion of ex-NSW Labor MP, Eddie Obeid

    A major political donor, tipping more than $2 million into Liberal and Labor parties nationwide since 1999 including $100,000 to Victorian Labor in Sept 2006 just before signing of Kew Cottages contract

    Has used politically connected lobbyists and consultants including former Labor senator Graham “Richo” Richardson and Victorian Liberal powerbroker and ex-Places Victoria chairman, Peter Clarke

    ::::
    The Andrews government has also refused to open the books.

    :::
    From the outset the government’s partnership with Walker, who was announced as preferred bidder in mid-2005, was controversial. More than a year after the announcement, negotiations with Major Projects bogged down and with a state election looming, Walker tipped $100,000 into ALP coffers, the company’s first gift to Victorian Labor since 2000.

    A contract was signed on the last day before the caretaker period ahead of the state election that year. In 2007, The Age also revealed intervention in the Kew scheme by NSW Labor-right heavy-turned lobbyist and Walker associate, Graham “Richo” Richardson.

    Through the Bracks years the Coalition opposition declared the Kew deal was dodgy, vowed to scrap it and, later, to make Kew the first investigation by its promised anti-corruption commission, IBAC.

    But after winning power in 2010 the Liberals went quiet, the silence coinciding with big Walker donations to the Liberal party.

    Political donations from developers and vested interests to the two major parties.

    Te revolving door between politicians from the two major parties and vested interests and big business.

    Once again it’s the ordinary taxpayers who are screwed.

  22. Interesting that Turnbull decided ,firstly ,it was up to him to personally refute the ” fake news ” re pension cuts and ,secondly , the best forum to do do was Twitter. No release of formal statement from the government, just the PM ranting on social media.

    In contrast the silence is deafening from the relevant Minister (s).

    Interesting.

    Cheers.

  23. Doyley

    There could be doublespeak going on here, as the cuts are targeted and not universal. Whatever they say, I don’t trust them.

  24. kevjohnno @ #468 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 10:41 am

    I try Maccas every few years to see if it really is as bad as I remembered it. It always is. Many people have different tastes to mine though so that’s ok. Plenty of KFC hasn’t turned me into a bigoted RWNJ though, just made me a bigger person 🙂

    I too occasionally make the same mistake with McDonalds. I’ve also been told by several people that McDonalds in the US is even worse than Australia.

  25. Interestingly Turnbull hasn’t disputed the cuts, just that they won’t be in the budget.

    Makes me think that they were going to be in the budget, but because of the article, they’ve been taken off the table in panic.

  26. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/news/greens-aim-to-outlaw-political-donations-from-property-developers/news-story/8e2307591412c14b46fef8ee403bfb93

    LAWS banning property developers from making political donations and harsher penalties for candidates who abuse the donation system will be put to State Parliament before the next election.

    The Greens will reintroduce donation legislation in a bid to fix what they describe as “rife developer corruption” at local and state level.

    Similar legislation was voted down last year by both major parties.

    Melbourne Greens MP Ellen Sandell said the influence of developers was “phenomenal” and should not be underestimated.

  27. Bemused

    I was a fan of the writing of Ken Davidson in The Age. He was a vehement opponent of governments getting into bed with private enterprise.
    Viewed from afar it seemed to happen a lot in Victoria and the benefits to the taxpayer usually fell far short of what was promised.
    Kew Cottages would seem to be another example.
    I can understand coalition governments doing deals with their supporters and I only hope that the new team in WA can keep the spruikers, shonks and spivs at arm’s length.

  28. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden · 13m13 minutes ago
    Samantha Maiden Retweeted Malcolm Turnbull

    Re PM’s fired up denial. Story is accurate Dept DID cost the idea. Government point is they didn’t ask for it. Won’t do it.

  29. TPOF,

    “One of the most useless and pointless metrics there is. Temperament and judgement are far more important than pure IQ, which does not measure these values.”

    I largely agree. But in the context of ‘Hilary is the most intelligent presidential candidate ever because she has a better academic record than JFK’ it’s quite germane.

  30. Player One

    I agree that the influence of developers and their donations should be reined in. I wish Labor would work on it.

  31. Makes me think that they were going to be in the budget, but because of the article, they’ve been taken off the table in panic.

    That’s exactly what it looks like to me too.

  32. ‘fess

    A report today that the government is cutting the aged pension is false and we outright reject it.

    Note the word used is ‘cut’ – weasel!

    But they could be considering decreasing the indexation rate.

  33. grimace @ #527 Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 12:22 pm

    I too occasionally make the same mistake with McDonalds. I’ve also been told by several people that McDonalds in the US is even worse than Australia.

    Years ago I worked with a number of American scientists on an extended project in Townsville.

    As the project was winding down a few commented that they couldn’t wait to get home to get a decent hamburger, complaining that we put too much fresh salad on ours. 🙂

  34. “Ok Trolls. Yes, I said wind was a “non-renewable resource” during an i/v – an obvious misspeak. But knock yourselves out.”

    The irony of a journalist complaining about someone pouncing on a mistake is so obvious only a journalist would fail to see it.

  35. Ratsak – Malcolm doesn’t do grace under pressure. He’s just going to get nastier and nastier and his ship sinks. This is going to be fantastic to watch. Worth all the shit we had to put up with when people thought he was a God.

  36. The origin of the pension proposal story is a interesting story in itself. From the reaction of Turnbull it is obvious the story has legs and at the very least costing so were done by treasury.

    Who leaked it ? Must have been a cabinet minister and one would think a member of the expenditure review / razor gang. Who could it be ?

    Turnbull is obviously shitty about the leaking and as others have noted he does not deny costings were done.

    Turnbull just cannot help himself. The story now has even more legs. He will have yo confirm or deny eventually whether costings were done by treasury. Then, who will the liar be ?Turnbull is a idiot.

    What else will bubble up. Blowing up in his face already and it is only Sunday.

    Cheers.

  37. Oops,

    Missed the tweet by Sam Maiden. Thanks for posting it lizzie.

    Now Turnbull will be caught up in a week of semantics.

    Cheers.

  38. GeorgeNegus‏Verified account
    @GeorgeNegus
    @TurnbullMalcolm stop ignoring the truth of your fake “energy crisis” Face the real facts!! It’s the chaos of a privatised energy market !!!

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