ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia

A new poll conducted in WA records very substantial federal wash-up from state Labor’s landslide last weekend.

The weekend edition of The West Australian has results of a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia, presumably conducted on Thursday night. It shows Labor with a lead of 53-47, which if borne out would amount to a 7.6% swing compared with last year’s election. I’m not sure about a federal poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of a state election, but there it is. More detail to follow.

UPDATE: After exclusion of 3.2% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 38.7%, Nationals 5.1%, Labor 35.7%, Greens 11.6% and One Nation 5.3%. The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 54.5-45.5 as preferred prime minister; Turnbull rated very good or good by 29.3%, average by 37.2% and poor or very poor by 33.5%; Shorten respectively coming in at 27.7%, 36.7% and 35.6%; and 75.5% rating it very important, 17.0% somewhat important, 5.6% “indifferent” and 1.9% not at all important that Western Australia get a bigger share of GST revenue. The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 1554.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

813 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia”

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  1. See this. Not a joke. My best guess. It could mean, in the event of Rupert’s death, the ABC could suggest to the govt that it might put in an offer if it looks like or only real national newspaper might otherwise close. It is probably only a contingency plan, may not be likely.
    Matthew Knott‏ @KnottMatthew
    *Rachel Maddow voice*
    In tomorrow’s SMH & The Age: the secret plan for the ABC to buy The Australian newspaper.
    8:08 PM – 17 Mar 2017

  2. The Trump administration gave its clearest signal yet that it would consider taking military action against North Korea, with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson saying Friday that “all options are on the table” to deter the threat from Pyongyang.

    Tensions are running high in northeast Asia, with North Korea making observable progress toward its goal of building a missile that could reach the United States mainland and China incensed over South Korea’s decision to deploy an American antimissile battery.

    Tillerson’s remarks, ruling out diplomatic talks and leaving the door open to military action, will fuel fears in the region that the Trump administration is seriously considering what are euphemistically called “kinetic” options in Washington.

    The problem with Team Trump is that you don’t know where the playing chicken ends and the seriousness begins.

  3. C@tmomma @ 2291 and 2292 on previous thread,
    Thank you – but no apology needed. Dave was kind enough earlier this evening to explain the use of the term ‘bludger’ – I just didn’t make the link between my lurking nickname and the name of the site. Sometimes I can be just too literal, it must be the lack of a ‘right sided brain’ capacity – too much left sided digital thinking perhaps.
    All is good and thank you again.

  4. The Australian already provides the talking points for ABC radio in the morning.

    This plan would just formalise the arrangement.


    George Osborne appointed editor of London Evening Standard
    MPs and media pundits express surprise after newspaper’s owner Evgeny Lebedev names former chancellor as its new chief
    Esther Addley and Anushka Asthana
    Friday 17 March 2017 23.51 AEDT

    George Osborne has been appointed as the new editor of the London Evening Standard, in a move that has astonished political commentators and media-watchers alike.

    Evgeny Lebedev, the owner of the daily paper, announced the appointment on Twitter, saying he was “thrilled” at the news, and described the Cheshire MP as “London through and through”. Osborne, who has no significant journalistic experience, plans to continue as MP for Tatton.

    The former chancellor described his new job as a “huge honour”, adding that he was “proud to be a Conservative MP” but that as the paper’s editor, “our only interest will be to give a voice to all Londoners”.

  6. On bludgers, this is where I first learned the origin of the phrase were thugs in the 1800s who went around with clubs bludgeoning innocent people and robbing them blind. Still has to be my favourite use of it.

    “As the night was slowly falling over city, town and bush, From a slum in Bludgers Alley slunk the Captain of the Push, And his whistle loud and piercing woke the echoes of The Rocks, And a dozen ghouls came sloping round the corners of the blocks…”

    From Henry Lawsons The Captain of the Push.

    This goes into a bit more detail about how the meaning of the name has changed over time.

  7. I see very little commonality between the US Democratic Party and the Australian Labor Party. They have their own unique histories, and their own unique future ahead of them.

    It only ever seems to be the anti-Labor forces that wish to conflate the two.

  8. Umm, I was planning to tally up every booth from the state election & translate it to the federal electotates, saueeze through an old mangle in the backyard, and see what comes out.
    Wouldn’t this be fairly accurate?

  9. Ah, if only the US intel agencies had half the balls of their UK counterparts, maybe Trump would knock it off already:

    A senior administration official told CNN that Spicer and McMaster offered what amounted to an apology to the British government.

    Earlier Friday, a spokesman for British Prime Minister Theresa May said senior UK officials had protested to the Trump administration after the claims were repeated by Spicer.

    “We’ve made clear to the US administration that these claims are ridiculous and should be ignored. We’ve received assurances that these allegations won’t be repeated,” May’s spokesman said.

  10. Give McGowan three months to wear his welcome out, as he looks set upon doing. Retreads like Michelle Roberts, Laura Norder types like Quiggin…his Cabinet’s looking pretty ordinary, so far! Then, of course, there’s the inevitable train of “We didn’t realise how far in the hole WA was!” broken promises which will come over the next 4-6 weeks…

    But nevermind any of that – we’ve played our role in this kabuki play! When’s the next circus to distract we merry proles?

  11. BC @11:51 – The phrase might be, but the reality really isn’t! Today’s Labor Party can’t even bring itself to defend the ACTU – how they can claim to be a party of democratic socialism is beyond me!!

  12. Trump Administration Formally Apologizes to Britain for False Wiretapping Accusation

    The Trump administration through Sean Spicer and National Security Advisor General H.R. McMaster have apologized to Britain’s intelligence service, Government Communications Headquarters, or GCHQ, for falsely accusing it Thursday night of wiretapping Donald Trump at the request of President Obama.

  13. Trump Trashes Fox News In Front Of The World While Sticking To Claim Obama Spied On Him

    Donald Trump threw Fox News under the bus by claiming that it was Fox’s fault that his press secretary reported the claim that the UK helped Obama spy on him during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

    America’s conspiracy theory president is making enemies of out of allies and trashing the cable news network that supports him.

    Oh, and he also still believes that Obama wiretapped him.

  14. Secret Service agent’s laptop containing Trump Tower intel stolen from parked car in Brooklyn

    A laptop computer containing floor plans for Trump Tower and other national security data was stolen from a Secret Service agent’s vehicle.

    Police have been “scrambling like mad” since the computer containing “highly sensitive” information was swiped Thursday morning from a parked car in Brooklyn, reported the New York Daily News.

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This is definitely a Saturday blockbuster!

    Land tax in lieu of stamp duty is on the table again bur although it would decrease the sticker price of a house it would not necessarily reduce the weekly cost of ownership when added to mortgage repayments.
    Ross Gittins on how the two speed economy worm has turned.
    Another issue of The Australian devoted to ideology and bigotry. Just look at the story headers!
    Is Australia getting near to the end of the two party system?
    Simon Cowan writes that PHON is unlikely to become a genuine right wing alternative.
    And Karen Middleton says that Hanson is setting up PHON as a cash cow pyramid scheme. Ouch!
    Peter Hartcher pulls the wings off Turnbull’s Snowy Scheme butterfly.
    Phil Coorey has quite a good spit here, starting with the making of the energy crisis. Google.
    David Wroe writes that the Iraqi army is very close to taking back Mosul. Or what’s left of it.
    To me this fast growing franchise operation has all the signs of heading for a demise. It’s one of those trendy, too good to be true things.

  16. Section 3 . . .

    The Victorian Liberal Party is facing financial crisis before the next election. Let the in-fighting begin!
    In a sad announcement Wacka Williams lets people know that he has been diagnosed with Parkinsons Disease. He is one of the good guys in parliament.
    Turnbull’s dismissal of Sally McManus as a “lunatic” with whom he would not work smacks of desperation.
    NSW letter writers come out strongly in support of Weatherill’s shirtfront.
    Katherine Murphy says the government had it coming with Weatherill’s outburst.
    The outcome of the South Australian government’s bold energy policy could be key to the future of renewable energy throughout the nation.`
    An excellent Article from Paul Bongiorno on the SA/Feds enmity over energy.
    Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) has announced that he will vote against the Republican health care bill. Heller is the third Republican to oppose the bill. If all Democrats vote against the legislation along with the Republicans, Trumpcare will be dead.
    Sensitive employment data on another 53,000 federal public servants may have been supplied to a private firm conducting workplace ballots without the knowledge or consent of the workers.
    Paula Matthewson on why Turnbull has finally stepped into the penalty rates fray.

  17. Section 5 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1

    Theresa May has been accused by the Scottish National party deputy leader of “arrogant bluster” for trying to block an independence referendum.
    George Pell could turn key witness against the Catholic Church on behalf of sexual abuse victims. I wonder . . . Google.
    Trump has shown he can smile for the cameras while sitting next to world leaders he doesn’t exactly see eye to eye with. But when it came to shaking hands during a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday … game over. Petulant prick!

    Alan Moir and Turnbull’s leadership problems.

    A nice little dig at Turnbull here from Mark David.

    Broelman and another pumped hydro scheme.

    Cathy Wilcox and the role of working mothers in parliament.

  18. Section 2 . . . &(*&(*& try again!

    “Ethical investment” is on the rise. Google.
    Consumers are being left with home loans larger than they need or can afford because the mortgage broking industry is rife with conflicts of interest, a new report reveals.
    Hello hello. What’s Gerry Harvey been up to here? Google.
    Barnaby Joyce has leapt on to Jay Weatherill’s plan to divert 10% of royalties to landowners to dismantle CSG objections.
    This was a near disaster for a Saab aircraft flown by Rex. Most probably it was a metal fatigue failure of the propeller shaft.
    The Medich murder trial takes a strange turn as a juror is suddenly and mysteriously discharged.
    Paul McGeough pronounces Trump’s ideological bombshell budget dead on arrival. And, in a long contribution, tells us why.
    And Robert Reich writes that Trump’s “bonkers budget” is just the opposite of what is needed.
    Fox News wasted no time firing back and President Trump after he tried to blame the cable network for his claim that the British helped Obama spy on him. Fox made Trump look nuts by saying there is no evidence that Trump was wiretapped. They made him look like the lunatic that he is.
    In his first move as West Australian premier, Mark McGowan has asked Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to remove Perth from the Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme.

  19. Section 4 . . . (*^$ I’m getting sick of this!

    Paula Matthewson on why Turnbull has finally stepped into the penalty rates fray.
    In a very long article Jack Waterford writes that Turnbull is preparing for his final throw of the dice.
    Adam Morton says depending on who you listen to, Malcolm Turnbull’s proposed $2 billion expansion of the Snowy Hydro Scheme is a bold piece of nation-building by a Prime Minister who had found his mojo, or a cynically timed thought-bubble that is years away at best.
    More and more issues with the NSW RSL are coming to light as the fraud squad gets busy.
    The BCA has made its usual pre-budget plea.
    Amy Remeikis tells us how Turnbull has finally come out and said that the government supports the penalty rate cuts.
    In front of the three by-elections in NSW Elizabeth Farrelly writes that we need more independents like Ted Mack.
    Business leaders have hit back at Immigration Minister Peter Dutton for attacking their support for gay marriage, accusing the Coalition of being “out of touch” and saying chief executives had a duty to speak up about social issues that had an impact on their employees. Google.
    Anne Summers says that voters quickly realised in the months after Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott in the nation’s top job, he does not have it in him. He is clinging, not leading, she infers.
    Adele Ferguson says that when it comes to financial advice we don’t just have a few bad apples. Rather it’s a whole dodgy advisor orchard.

  20. Morning all

    Thanks BK for today’s offerings. Turnbull as PM, Is well and truly turning out to be the dud I expected. Whether it be on energy, IR, housing affordability. It is a big fail wherever you look.

    And thanks for the latest on the Trump imbroglio.
    Trump also continues to behave as expected. Sigh.
    He is well on his way to wrecking the joint. It is getting to the point where he needs to be stopped in his tracks. Time is of the essence

  21. Sceptic

    Trump has only been President barely two months and it is obvious to even those at Fox, that it is going to end badly.
    Trump’s shady business dealings over the years and his collusion with the Ruskies is on its way to being fully exposed.
    Did he really think that trying to throw an ally such as the UK under the bus, was a good move,

  22. BC

    ‘Bernie Sanders is the most popular politician in the United States, but the Democratic party continue to reject him, his ideology and his policy platform…’

    To be fair, he rejected them first.

    You really can’t play the “I’m not one of you guys, because spit on all you stand for” line and then expect to be embraced with open arms when you decide it’s to your advantage to get on board.

    If Sanders thinks he’s so sh*t hot, he should run as an independent.

  23. BC

    ‘Those of you who support labor in Australia, but have a problem with Sanders for some reason may be interested to know that the phrase ‘democratic socialism’ is very prominent on the ALP members card for 2017.’

    Can I break this to you gently — 1. Australia is not America. 2. The Labor party is not the Democratic party. 3. Supporting Labor in Australia and not having much time for Sanders (for a variety of reasons) can thus be a perfectly consistent stance. 4. Supporting democratic socialism (which I think you’ll find Australian Labor was doing before Sanders was even a twinkle in his daddy’s eye) and supporting Sanders are not necessarily the same thing.

  24. SM

    ‘Wouldn’t this be fairly accurate?’

    I used to do this (over many elections) in Indi.

    It can be useful as an indicator of potential votes v. actual (this booth swung in the State election, therefore there are people in that area who are willing to vote Labor).

    Depending on the area, you need to be very aware also of the effect of certain local issues (in Indi, which is a relatively big electorate, a burning local issue can totally skew the vote in one area and not impact at all in another), the candidates (again, a ‘hometown’ independent can skew results; the area covered by a Federal seat can cover several state electorates, whose MPs performance affects the vote – so a popular Coalition MP will depress the Labor vote, for example) and a few other variables.

    If you take it as indicative of the possible Labor vote, it might be a useful exercise. If there’s a distinct pattern (for example, a slight move to Labor over each election) that can be useful too.

  25. “George Pell could turn key witness against the Catholic Church on behalf of sexual abuse victims. I wonder . .”

    Is he terminally ill and planning a deathbed conversion?

  26. Zoomster

    If Sanders thinks he’s so sh*t hot, he should run as an independent.

    Yep. He is not part of the US Democratic Party. But he’d just love them to support him instead of their own.

    How surprising they don’t.

  27. Victoria – Turnbull has never really led an organisation in his life. He’s always been protege and inside-trader. Now he is fully exposed and totally hopeless.

  28. And the laptop that got stolen with highly sensititive information. And the secret service are freaking out. Really?

    Seems like this laptop was meant to land in someone’s lap. Pardon the pun!

  29. Anton11

    I don’t know how people got sucked in by Turnbulll. The Godwin Grech saga should have been more than enough of a clue

  30. Oh dear someone else has work out the bleeding obvious; I tell you as a policy it will not last more than a week:

    The site’s editor, Giles Parkinson, wrote: “By promoting pumped hydro, Turnbull is effectively signing the death knell for any new coal or gas fired generation built by the private sector, and is paving the way for a 100 per cent renewable energy grid, driven mostly by wind and solar.”

  31. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    As always, BK’s links are a mine of useful information. Such as this outing of the location of a former Coalition Minister (he has certainly fallen on his feet):

    Bruce Billson, head of the Franchise Council of Australia, backs growth in the sector.

    As to Billson’s comment, it is interesting to note that he is advocating growth in a sector which has proven it’s lawlessness, time and time again. I guess he’s okay with it, because I haven’t noticed him coming out to condemn it, or the miscreants within the sector, such as 7-11 or Dominos.

    One would also imagine he is quite happy with the very low levels of union membership, and hence high levels of employee exploitation, in that sector.

  32. Oh dear P1 will not be happy:

    He cited an ANU expert, Andrew Blakers, in support: “It’s game over for gas, it’s game over for nuclear. Solar PV and wind have won the race.”

    Come on down P1; go read a few climate change denial sites; you should be able to get a few hints from them on how to counter the experts. I await your post with interest; I won’t respond, but I won’t scroll on by either.

  33. One of the busiest jobs in the Trump administration seems to be apologising, explaining (or trying to explain) and generally cleaning up the mess made by Donald and a few of his cronies.

  34. Citizen

    Who can ever believe a word that comes out of Trump’s mouth? He is the biggest fraudster and traitor to ever lead the free world. The sooner here departs the scene, the better for us all. If he had an ounce of any decorum, he would resign immediately

  35. Jake Tapper rips Trump: ‘Damn sure’ not defending national security or US credibility with dubious wiretap claim

    CNN’s Jake Tapper on Friday issued a brutal takedown of Donald Trump’s claim that Barack Obama wiretapped Trump Tower during the 2016 election, arguing the White House is “damn sure” not defending national security or American credibility with his unrelenting accusation.

  36. Talking about franchising, I keep getting online advertisements calling for people to become Muffin Break franchisees. That’s interesting because two Muffin Break outlets in my area closed in the last few months and were dismantled. They seemed to be popular with customers.

    Franchising seems to be a fairly ruthless business with pressure on franchisees and their employees. (I’m not saying this was the case for the two Muffin Break stores that closed). The other issue is the pressure that shopping mall owners put on shop owners.

  37. silentmajority @ #9 Saturday, March 18, 2017 at 12:28 am

    Umm, I was planning to tally up every booth from the state election & translate it to the federal electotates, saueeze through an old mangle in the backyard, and see what comes out.
    Wouldn’t this be fairly accurate?

    It would be valid for what it was, but that is a record of how people voted in a State Election when, presumably, they were focused on state issues and personalities.
    I would place greater reliance on that poll.

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