Western Australian election live

A thread for discussion of the Western Australian election count.

And they’re off. Polls have closed, and the first results should be in in half an hour or so. I’ll be part of ABC Radio’s coverage, which you can hear on local radio in Western Australia and around the country on News Radio. Here’s a thread for you all to discuss the action as it occurs.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

487 comments on “Western Australian election live”

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  1. This result gives me real hope for Qld.

    NSW might still be a bridge too far, although the Libs here are managing to piss off an awfully large number of people simultaneously.

  2. “McGowan needs to constantly remind the people of WA what a mess the great economic managers have made of that state. And I mean constantly. This myth needs to be hammered home until it is dead, buried and cremated.”

    Again & again & again & again
    $40 bil, $40 bil, $40 bil, everyday

  3. -age , the regional areas are very well suited to it politically and the same seat distributions that favoured the Queensland Nats will favour One Nation. That and the LNP may be dim enough to do another preference deal with them, though they are probably rethinking it considering that it hasn’t paid off for them in WA.

  4. Wow ! The folks of W.A didn’t have baseball bats,they had bazookas. !
    As an outsider from the east with only a passing interest in politics from the west, what an amazing night for the good guys. !
    So glad PHON had jack influence on the result. The libs federally will have to denounce them or forever be tied to them.
    Could be up to 40 seats won. Now if only the conservatives cop the same at the next federal election.!
    PHON could be the spoiler in QLD at the next federal ection, there’s no figuring out Qld’ers, they’re just weird.

  5. Aqualung – absolutely Labor must remind people who blew out the debt. They are going to have to do some unpopular things so they need to explain why. 90% of the debt was piled up under Barnett.

  6. Congrats to our WA brothers and sisters on the election result, the only problem is going to be the pain (and there will be some unfortunately) that will have to be endured to try and fix the problems created over the last 8 or so years but at least there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. As a dyed in the wool unionist and Labor voter congratulations to Mr McGowan and the Labor team and all the people that work behind the scenes. SOLIDARITY FOREVER!!!

  7. 2 more remarks before bed – yes Simon, basically whichever is the less.
    And Wakefield re Greens – Chrissy Sharp ex-MLC posted on Antony Greens’ site the other day, still defending her absurd idea of “eco-regionalism” which led them to support 6 members per region despite the huge differences in population back in 2005 (which have got worse since then of course). And SgtThursday said something similar on Kev Bonham’s blog – but then Sgt Thursday is a muppet after all. So let’s hope a few of the Greens now assign some value to people and not just “ecologies”. Night all!

  8. ABC LC the 6 undecided are Mining and pastoral, that hasn’t counted enough votes. The last 1 or two in all the other regions are a lottery, so unknowable at this low count.

  9. One Nation preferences seem to be electing a 3rd Liberal in Northern Metro even though Labor got almost 40% of the vote.

  10. Malapportionment is a fecking dumb idea. The more representative of Electoral intent a proportional chamber is , the better, it defeats the point otherwise. The WA Greens were wrong to do that.

  11. Must be some heroic assumptions in the ABC predictions. I suspect end result for Labor will be more like 34 or 35 seats. Joondalup, Kingsley, Murray-Wellington look vulnerable to postal votes etc.

  12. In terms of serving as a check and balance the proportional upper house is sufficient , it balances a better representation of the Electorates will with the less accurately representative but decisive majorotorian method used in the lower chamber for the sake of having a clear government.

  13. Wooooooooo!! A so, SO overdue and EXTREMELY well-earned win for the ALP and Mark McGowan! To quote McGowan:

    “Today West Australians voted for hope and opportunity over desperation and division.”

    Yes. Yes. YES!! Suck on it, Poorline! Go back to Queensland where you belong! We don’t want you or your politics of hatred, fear and division over here! Even the Liberals don’t want them! You’re done – a relic of our darker days, old, dusty and only occasionally relevant!

  14. One final comment psephologically. The last overall 2pp I saw tonight was Labor 54.5/45.5. That suggests both Reachtell and Newspoll were within 1% of the actual result, so pretty good.

  15. There’s clearly not enough of the vote counted in each of the Regions for the LC to be accurate it’s jumped from 0 to 2 PHON in 15 minutes. Might be worth a look tomorrow morning.

  16. Wonder what Christian Porter was doing tonight while the “sweaty junior navy lawyer ” was savouring a famous labor victory.

    A swing half as big in his seat of Pearce would see him gone.

  17. I have it on excellent authority that Pauline is celebrating her Party’s excellent performance in today’s election with a shindig at the Melville bowling club, in Alfred Cove.

    Anyone care to dance with a star?

  18. Bemused Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 11:44 pm
    jack a randa @ #314 Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 11:42 pm
    Tom, all booths start counting once the doors are closed. If they only have 50 votes to count, it’s quick. If they have 2000 it takes a while. So the tiny booths in West Hicksville Creek and suchlike always report early, and the Nationals look like they’ve had a yuge increase, which then diminishes over the first hour. Was ever thus. Don’t know what gave you a different idea.

    I think the more remote booths used to be slower reporting in the past, but not in recent times. Communications and processing the count have improved.

    As I recall It used to be , until the mid eighties, that rural booths would physically transfer their boxes to the Divisional offices, and they would be counted there. Then they changed to counting them in situ, and phoned the result through. Nedt reult was that the small booths were reported earlier than the large booths, instead of the other way round. Malcolm Mackerras lost his reputation as a psephologist for overlooking this and reporting one of Hawkes victories as a defeat, because he was evpecting a flood of anti labor votes which had already been counted.

  19. I believe you need half plus 1 to pass stuff though, traditionally in the Westminister system tied votes fail (ie the status quo holds).

  20. ShowsOn,

    It’s pretty early to say anything definite about the upper house, but it isn’t looking too bad for Labor. If there is a path for them to pass legislation with either the Greens or the Nats, then I think they are in a good position. I think there is a lot of potential for them to reach agreement with the Nats.

  21. [I think there is a lot of potential for them to reach agreement with the Nats.]
    Labor should definatley do a deal over mining royalty increase in order to start fixing the budget.

  22. Stunned. Simply stunned. The sentiment around was positive for Labor but this is just, wow. We were cheering when Collie-Preston was shown 60%+, finally Mick won a comfortable victory. We were celebrating when Don Punch knocked out Bunbury with a swing you wouldn’t believe if you hadn’t seen it and everyone was taking photos. Then Murray-Wellington came up as a Labor gain and the place went nuts.

    What a night.

    For the Liberal Party’s primary vote to be that destroyed across the board. No one could have seen. I can’t wait to see Cormann’s interview on Insiders. The only other person who had a more sleepless night would be Turnball.

    Finally, something to hold onto that can restore my image of my fellow West Australians. I thought we were another “Queensland”. Clearly not.

  23. Geeklections is always good for upper house counts: https://blog.geeklections.com.au/state/wa/2017/upper-house/2017/03/11/live-lc-count.html

    Looks like a huge result for Labor and a disaster for the Libs. Greens likely to remain at two, but a different two to the ones they currently hold. One Nation remain on track for two. (If the projection is correct and Labor wins 16, then with the Greens they would only need to convince one urban micro to finally end malapportionment. I am convinced the Greens would not be so stupid as to oppose it again.)

  24. When will Briefly, hic, and Grimace hic, burp, provide us with an update of the post election celebrations they attended?

    Where many marble tables destroyed?

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