A thread for discussion of the Western Australian election count.
And they’re off. Polls have closed, and the first results should be in in half an hour or so. I’ll be part of ABC Radio’s coverage, which you can hear on local radio in Western Australia and around the country on News Radio. Here’s a thread for you all to discuss the action as it occurs.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
martha farquahar @ #284 Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 11:31 pm
The seat I was calling was Mt Lawley which I am pleased to see was won.
Didn’t have a clue where it was or what it was like.
Nationals pref flow will be interesting. Has Green based this on prev election and his recent updates to predicted totals hint at Nats preffing ALP?
Almost 40 – 20 to Labor now!
Okay clearly others heard the same.
ON situation = open Cab Merlot
jimmydoyle @ #293 Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 11:34 pm
GOOD!
The person(s) I would really like to find are those who letterboxed the fake mosque planning proposal in Inglewood. And it will be interesting to see what comes out in the wash re the election day ‘robocalls’. Looking at the Liberal Primary vote across Perth I think the One Nation “alliance” has routed them. Arthur Sinodinos should be asked about One Nation’s ‘sophistication’ now! Clearly even Ron Boswell has more brains than Sinodinos, John Howard and the WA Liberals.
ALP win. Massive Swings. PHON gets bugger all?? Icing meet cake and bugger the diet. 🙂
Anthony said PHON an outside chance in 1 or 2 upper house seats only. But no certainties in any.
rocket rocket @ #306 Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 11:37 pm
What’s teh story on the robo calls?
Western Australia; you have dodged the bullet of electricity privatisation; I don’t need to inform bludgers what a total disaster that has been here in South Australia.
matt31 @ #310 Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 11:38 pm
Not real flash in Victoria either.
Antony just said ON will struggle to win any Upper House seats.
That is almost as good as Labor winning. I really think Pauline’s crazy anti-vaxxer, pro-Putin interview on Insiders last weekend did her a lot of damage. People who may be sympathetic to her protectionist, ‘bring back manufacturing’ policies have no time for this sort of nuttiness. They remember when polio and TB were very real threats to Australians.
As my dad said earlier in the week: “I think she’s lost the plot!”.
I belted down to Perth campaign HQ. Had 2 vino 2 party pies & watched John Carey claim victory.
Back home to watch Barney concede. Hope he cries.
Tom, all booths start counting once the doors are closed. If they only have 50 votes to count, it’s quick. If they have 2000 it takes a while. So the tiny booths in West Hicksville Creek and suchlike always report early, and the Nationals look like they’ve had a yuge increase, which then diminishes over the first hour. Was ever thus. Don’t know what gave you a different idea.
It will also be interesting to see what this does to PHON finances. Their $ per vote will be way down and if they get nobody in parliament the one federal senator will be the total of their resources in WA with little or no organisational base. I wonder what they spent on their campaign? Pauline won’t make any profit out of this one.
That’s why the ABC have been barred from attending the ON party.
Good grief! Labor ahead in Kingsley, where the previous Liberal margin was 14%!
I have a recollection that thes real focus on data and ground game was first applied here in a big way in QLD and that Possum had an involvement? Worked there and has been expanded and refined by the ALP at pretty much every election since.
jack a randa @ #314 Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 11:42 pm
I think the more remote booths used to be slower reporting in the past, but not in recent times. Communications and processing the count have improved.
socrates @ #315 Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 11:43 pm
I hope they spent up big, expecting 10 – 15% of the vote.
Might just bankrupt them.
Smashing stuff, WA Labor! Congrats to all who helped out.
And doubly good to see PHON’s diminishing vote.
Murray wellington result should not be used as a guide to anything
Local member mick Murray is like Albany’s Peter Watson, has been defying the doom sayers for quite a few years.
One nation candidates were picked on their willingness to fund their own campaigns.
Bemused
matt31 @ #310 Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 11:38 pm
Western Australia; you have dodged the bullet of electricity privatisation; I don’t need to inform bludgers what a total disaster that has been here in South Australia.
Not real flash in Victoria either.
I’m dreading the full consequences of electricity privatisation here in NSW.
Concession speech from Colin imminent. Been waiting years for this speech so I’m looking forward to it.
And Pauline Hanson has to go back to Canberra and deal with Rod Culleton’s Brother-In-Law, Peter Georgiou! 😀
Haven’t sighted Julie ‘Hollywood’ Bishop yet. 🙂
Julie staying well under the radar. “State issues”.
roger miller @ #323 Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 11:47 pm
Suckers!
Rossmcg – Mick Murray is the member for Collie-Preston. Labor has won Murray-Wellington off the Liberals.
Turnbull could learn a thing or two about losing election night speeches from Colin.
Colin giving Malcolm a bruising lesson in how to be gracious in an election night speech.
Barnett quite dignified I have to say, congratulating Macgowan on an “emphatic” victory. Fair enough.
Yeah, but young James already has.
Liberals sticking with this ‘It’s Time for a change’ reason for the loss. No mention of the reasons WHY people considered that their time was up.
Who took a punt but would be expecting PHON to pay at least some of that back after the election. Now i think with ashby in charge that was dubious anyway and seems some of them were VERY pissed off to be written off via the lib / ON preference deal that focused on winning upper house seats. Now that the funding PHON gets will be substantially less than expected?? Possible popcorn time. 🙂
Abetz got crushed like the bug he is….excellent!
Socrates
Barnett’s speech was indeed gracious.
Labor certainly out-doorknocked the Liberals in the ACT election last October. The score at our house was Lab/Lib 4-0.
How long until there is a by-election in Barnett’s electorate?
Doesn’t look like Matthias got an invite to the after party. 😉
“Liberals sticking with this ‘It’s Time for a change’ reason for the loss. No mention of the reasons WHY people considered that their time was up.”
Leave them in their state of denial. That way the won’t learn anything from this.
‘Difficult times’!?! Colin Barnett presided over a Mining Boom!
Jimmy
Sorry, getting excited
Gutted not to see Mezma or Cash tonight. They’d be onto their 5th bottle of Bolly by now.
citizen @ #339 Saturday, March 11, 2017 at 11:54 pm
Citizen, join in next time.
Creditable concession from Colin.
Didn’t hear a congratulations in it, however.
I asked earlier but didn’t see a reply.
What was the robo call issue in WA?
The rural booths used to report very slowly back in the old days so things used to get worse for Labor as the night went on. Just like Don’s Party. You always has to factor that in and not start celebrating too early. I think the introduction better communications & computers by the eighties completely reversed this.