Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Little change this week on voting intention this week, but a barrage of negative results for the government on matters related to climate change and renewable energy.

Essential Research, which now comes to us courtesy of The Guardian Australia, records no change this week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 36%, Labor is down a point to 34%, One Nation is steady on 10%, and the Greens are up a point to 10%.

Also featured this week are a semi-regular question on climate change, which finds 60% saying it is real and attributing it to human activity – up six points since the question was last asked in December, with 25% favouring the normal fluctuation response, down two. A remarkable 65% approve of Labor’s 50% renewable energy target by 2030, with 18% disapproving, and 71% say the federal government is not doing enough to ensure “affordable, reliable and clean energy” (albeit that that’s a few too many positive adjectives for my tastes), with 12% saying it’s doing enough and 3% too much. Only 16% offered that recent blackouts were the result of too much renewable energy, with 45% instead blaming failures of the energy market and 19% opting for privatisation. Nonetheless, a solid 31% offered support for building new coal-fired power stations, with 45% opposed.

Other findings: 29% approve of the Liberal-One Nation preference deal in Western Australia, with 38% disapproving; and 82% support penalty rates, with only 12% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,397 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. libertarian unionist @ #47 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 4:40 pm

    No, I’m asking about one plant considered on it’s own.

    Ok, it depends on which region you are in, forecast load growth and transmission congestion, and whether you can express market power by withholding supply to push up prices. So if you own 1/3 of the generation in Qld, you can expect to recoup your capital invested in Qld more quickly than in Vic.
    Nonetheless, typically we are talking at least 20 years for new plant (with at lifetime of 30-40 years). Fast-ramping gas might be quicker if we continue to see volatility grow in the wholesale markets. But at the same time, if demand side participation takes off, this could kill volatility stone dead.
    Short answer: I’m not sure.

    So it’s getting to the stage, if not already there, in a fast changing energy market you might not get your money back.

  2. Yay!

    One thing Brits done right recently!

    Johnny Heldt ‏@JohnnyHeldt 3h3 hours ago

    BREAKING NEWS: The British Parliament has just rejected a state visit by Donald Trump. #Resist #maddow

  3. barney in saigon @ #52 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 5:02 pm

    So it’s getting to the stage, if not already there, in a fast changing energy market you might not get your money back.

    Actually, it seems to me that the way the current energy market operates, you are pretty much guaranteed to get your money back no matter how dirty or inefficient your energy is. That’s what’s wrong with it.

    But in a proper energy market, coal would disappear very fast (say 5-10 years), and gas would ramp up just as fast and then disappear slowly – basically, it would be gone once renewables became feasible at utility scale (say ~25 years).

    Unfortunately, this is precisely what neither the alt-right nor the alt-left can abide.

  4. CTar1 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 5:03 pm
    PhoenixRED
    Being faster than the Metropolitan Police is not a claim to fame.

    **********************************************
    Well, where I live it’s a standing joke that if you order a pizza it will get to you faster than a call to the local cops that you are getting murdered !!!!

  5. The above link also has something about chimpanzees and fake news:

    ‘Call and Tomasello’s research on chimpanzees supports this, in that individual chimps seem to understand that other chimps have awareness, knowledge, and intention, but do not seem to understand false beliefs.’

  6. NBN Report.

    Got some contractors working in the box outside my house, checking the ducts and running a rope through which they tell me will be used to pull the cable.

    According to the NBN website I am not due for a connection until sometime between January and June 2018. Nothing like an early start I guess.

  7. Pedants’ corner. (I need a little light relief)

    ‘No, I’m asking about one plant considered on it’s own.’

    Your joking, right? Its true that being correct is it’s own reward.

    For the pedants out there, sentence 1 contains one error. Sentence 2 contains three errors.
    Therefore, sentence one contains fewer errors than sentence 2.

  8. The lack of government energy policy seems to be working against new gas plants. I can’t seem to find any new plants being built in Australia, although I stand to be corrected. There are a few proposed, but they seem to have been on the books for a while without much action.
    Quite a few solar/wind/storage projects though.
    Looks like it may all be over before the government gets it’s act together. Possibly a good thing.
    Solar wind and batteries are relatively safe investments – coal and gas not so much.
    Found this (old) 2014/15 statement about viability of gas. Interesting.

    The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) reported in August 2014 that for the first time in the history of the National Electricity Market (NEM), “no new thermal base load electricity generation is required over the next decade to maintain system reliability, due to the continuing decline in electricity consumption”.

    The only possible new investment would most likely come from the renewables side. When you then add in the relative cost position of gas this will make it extremely difficult to invest in further plant gas-fired generation. Additionally, companies which manage both gas and generation can make more money selling the gas than using it for fuel for gas generation plants, which may result in stranded assets.

    http://gastoday.com.au/news/future_outlook_for_gas-fired_power_generation/90578
    So what’s changed since then?
    Solar and batteries just got a hell of a lot cheaper.

  9. adrian @ #66 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 5:18 pm

    Pedants’ corner. (I need a little light relief)
    ‘No, I’m asking about one plant considered on it’s own.’
    Your joking, right? Its true that being correct is it’s own reward.
    For the pedants out there, sentence 1 contains one error. Sentence 2 contains three errors.
    Therefore, sentence one contains fewer errors than sentence 2.

    🙂 Me bad.

  10. trog sorrenson @ #69 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 5:21 pm

    So what’s changed since then?
    Solar and batteries just got a hell of a lot cheaper.

    Or gas has become more expensive. But only locally – this is why we need a national gas reservation scheme. Solar enthusiasts always complain about fossil fuels getting subsidies that discriminate against gas, but I don’t hear them complaining about anything that discriminates against gas, which is a guaranteed way to rapidly reduce our C02 emissions.

    Of course, for some it’s not about the C02 emissions, is it?

  11. trog sorrenson @ #69 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 5:21 pm

    The lack of government energy policy seems to be working against new gas plants. I can’t seem to find any new plants being built in Australia, although I stand to be corrected. There are a few proposed, but they seem to have been on the books for a while without much action.
    Quite a few solar/wind/storage projects though.
    Looks like it may all be over before the government gets it’s act together. Possibly a good thing.
    Solar wind and batteries are relatively safe investments – coal and gas not so much.
    Found this (old) 2014/15 statement about viability of gas. Interesting.

    The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) reported in August 2014 that for the first time in the history of the National Electricity Market (NEM), “no new thermal base load electricity generation is required over the next decade to maintain system reliability, due to the continuing decline in electricity consumption”.
    The only possible new investment would most likely come from the renewables side. When you then add in the relative cost position of gas this will make it extremely difficult to invest in further plant gas-fired generation. Additionally, companies which manage both gas and generation can make more money selling the gas than using it for fuel for gas generation plants, which may result in stranded assets.

    http://gastoday.com.au/news/future_outlook_for_gas-fired_power_generation/90578
    So what’s changed since then?
    Solar and batteries just got a hell of a lot cheaper.

    This might interest you.
    https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/portal/news/new-flow-battery-stores-energy-organic-molecules

    One of the longstanding problems in engineering has been in finding a long-lasting battery that will provide storage capacity for energy, while reducing safety risks and costs. Researchers from the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences believe they have done just that.

    The new flow battery stores energy in organic molecules dissolved in neutral pH water, allowing for a non-toxic, non-corrosive battery with an exceptionally long lifetime, with the potential to significantly decrease the cost of production.

    The research was led by Michael Aziz and Roy Gordon. Flow batteries store energy in liquid solutions in external tanks. The bigger the tanks, the more energy they store. They are promising power storage solutions for renewable, intermittent energy like wind and solar, but today’s flow batteries often see degraded energy storage capacity after many charge-discharge cycles, with their capacity restored only after periodic maintenance of the electrolyte.

    The researchers found they could modify the structures of the molecules used in the positive and negative electrolyte solutions, in order to make them water soluble. In so doing, they can engineer a battery that only loses one percent of its capacity every 1000 cycles. To put this into context, this is better performance than lithium ion batteries.

    Unlike conventional batteries, the liquid used to dissolve the electrolytes is neutral, minimising the corrosive nature of the medium. This allows the use of cheaper materials for other components, like the ion-selective membrane that separates the positive and negative sides of the batteries, as well as the tanks and the pumps.

  12. Oops – my post above should say ‘Solar enthusiasts always complain about fossil fuels getting subsidies that discriminate against solar … “

  13. Ladies and Gentlemen.
    I am a follower of the Ernest Hemingway school of punctuation. By that I mean I am almost clueless but uncaring.
    Regarez les emojis. Latin translation required please ❗
    If you have a copy of the wordpress enabled emojis (in two x eleven columns).
    If you also have Musrum’s excellent CCCP (and STFU for joking reference) you will find that Musrum in his last iteration made amendments so that all of the emoji in the first column except razz would pass the copy and paste test. I think Musrum refers to this as “Easy Quote” and am open to correction.
    Smoko. Coffee ☕.
    I am just checking the emoji in the second column
    text = text.replace(/:smile:/g,’:smile:’);
    text = text.replace(/:grin:/g,’:grin:’);
    text = text.replace(/:sad:/g,’:sad:’);
    text = text.replace(/:eek:/g,’:eek:’);
    text = text.replace(/:shock:/g,’:shock:’);
    text = text.replace(/:???:/g,’:???:’);
    text = text.replace(/:cool:/g,’:cool:’);
    text = text.replace(/:mad:/g,’:mad:’);
    text = text.replace(/:neutral:/g,’:neutral:’);
    text = text.replace(/:wink:/g,’:wink:’);
    text = text.replace(/:lol:/g,’:lol:’);
    All bar razz in first column
    Only lol is catered for in the second column.
    Having one’s lovingly crafted comment sent to languish in the 5th circle of hell is a pain.
    I have lately taken to using CTL A (select all) and then CTL C (copy all selected) prior to hitting “submit”.
    Naturally enough, Murphy’s law prevails more often than not, so that one is left lamenting and wailing into one’s flat cherry cheer.

    JenAuthor

    Libertarian Unionist used the razz emoji in his post which caused the truncation.

    I use a lot of different emoji from time to time and have no idea if they cause truncation. I will try to build a reference mini library over time.
    The text based figures such as “Elephant Stamp” “Koala Stamp” do cause truncation.
    Musrums “Easy Quote” button (used with CCCP) pastes a comment into the “Leave a comment” box. Instead of the blockquote function it uses square brackets which can send a post to the aforementioned 5th circle of hell.
    I would like anybody with further information to post same.
    Any corrections are also welcome.
    Love and kisses from KayJay and the regimental dog Abbee.
    ♡ 💋 ♡ 💋

  14. Johnny Heldt ‏@JohnnyHeldt 3h3 hours ago
    BREAKING NEWS: The British Parliament has just rejected a state visit by Donald Trump. #Resist #maddow

    How to hit the Don where it really hurts – his yuuge bigly ego.

    Wonder what the retaliation will be?

  15. Bemused
    Thanks for that, it is interesting.
    There are an infinity of potential battery chemistries out there, the challenge is to find the ones that are practical and cost effective.
    One thing researchers are doing is building computer models of batteries and battery chemistry to churn through a lot of options without actually having to physically build a test unit.
    Any new battery has to be more cost effective than lithium ion. Even though lithium ion is not the best potential chemistry it is far enough along the experience curve/ economies of scale to be difficult to dislodge as the option with most bang (or spark) for the dollar.

  16. Hmmm a 3 percent drop in Labor’s primary vote over the last couple of Essential polls. Slightly concerning, although I never quite know how to read these with the roling average. Other parts of the poll however are encouraging. Time to push back hard on the Government’s energy nonsense and get back on the front foot.

  17. Just Me Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 5:33 pm

    “Johnny Heldt ‏@JohnnyHeldt 3h3 hours ago
    BREAKING NEWS: The British Parliament has just rejected a state visit by Donald Trump. #Resist #maddow”

    How to hit the Don where it really hurts – his yuuge bigly ego.

    Wonder what the retaliation will be?

    *******************************************

    I have read that Trump is a big fan of the Queen and the royal family ….. not sure if it is reciprocated ????

    Trump state visit to U.K. puts Queen Elizabeth in ‘very difficult position’

    As controversy swirls following U.S. president’s travel ban, Prince Charles weighs in and London mayor calls for invitation to be rescinded.

    While the queen has steered clear of any political commentary, her son, on the other hand, does speak out on issues he feels passionately about, such as climate change and religious persecution. The Sunday Times reported that if the visit went ahead, Charles planned to confront Trump over global warming.

    Prince Charles even weighed in on the controversy, saying he fears the lessons of Second World War have been forgotten.

    “The work of World Jewish Relief enables us to rally together, to do what we can to support people practically, emotionally and spiritually,” the prince said in speech at a Jewish charity’s dinner on Monday night. “Particularly at a time when the horrific lessons of the last war seem to be in increasing danger of being forgotten.”

    While the queen has steered clear of any political commentary, her son, on the other hand, does speak out on issues he feels passionately about, such as climate change and religious persecution. The Sunday Times reported that if the visit went ahead, Charles planned to confront Trump over global warming.

  18. trog sorrenson @ #78 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 5:37 pm

    Bemused
    Thanks for that, it is interesting.
    There are an infinity of potential battery chemistries out there, the challenge is to find the ones that are practical and cost effective.
    One thing researchers are doing is building computer models of batteries and battery chemistry to churn through a lot of options without actually having to physically build a test unit.
    Any new battery has to be more cost effective than lithium ion. Even though lithium ion is not the best potential chemistry it is far enough along the experience curve/ economies of scale to be difficult to dislodge as the option with most bang (or spark) for the dollar.

    Yes, I think the next couple of years will see some really huge breakthroughs in storage, battery and possibly other.
    There are fortunes to be made!

  19. I think “Stare” is the key word regarding the Brits vote about Trump.

    A State visit includes being welcomed by QE2, a big parade, and a bed at Buckingham .

    As I understand it, it will now only be an Official Visit, unless DT dummy spits and stays home.

  20. Bloody hell, for guitar?! I use 1mm Dunlop Nylon Standards and they’re too thick for most people who ask to borrow one. Which works out pretty well come to think of it, coz you never get them back.

    Yep. My bass player looks at me like I’m weird. (He uses the Dunlop Nylons 0.88s I think. Girls Pick.)

    I love em. Nothing digs in like them. If you want a bit more delicacy (why would you want that?) you just lighten the grip and they’re so big you never loose control even with a very light grip.

    Gain on 10 (it’s not Spinal Tap after all) and go hard or go home.

  21. “I have read that Trump is a big fan of the Queen and the royal family”

    Nothing hurts more than being spurned by your children or your heroes. {grin}

    ———————

    I am a hardcore republican, and would vote royal privilege out of existence in a heartbeat. Hereditary power and privilege should be condemned and banished.

    That said, I do have some respect for both her Maj and Charles. As far as hereditary constitutional monarchs go she has been pretty good (for which her father must get considerable credit); and he has worked hard at becoming a rounded human being, and has used his public profile to stand up for some important principles, despite his occasional fruitloopery (e.g. homeopathy).

    I wouldn’t be born into his position for all the money in the world. No thanks.

  22. The pilot of the plane that crashed at Essendon Airport killing himself and four passengers on Tuesday was the subject of an ongoing investigation by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau that had been deferred on three separate occasions.

    Max Quartermain, the 63-year-old owner and pilot for charter company Corporate and Leisure Aviation faced referral to the Civil Aviation Safety Authority and possible suspension of his aviation licence over a “near collision” with another plane on Mount Hotham in September 2015.

    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/essendon-crash-pilot-under-investigation-for-midair-nearmiss-near-mount-hotham-20170221-gui1ki.html

  23. The plural in the USA for computer mice is ‘mouses’.

    Oscar Wilde was very wise.

    Re the essential poll and the bias with people giving the expected answer,I believe research was done comparing this effect across person to person, phone and online polls,and it found the effect was reduced in online only polls – like Essential.
    Question design is still an issue.

  24. Have not seen any reports on BBC World yet about British Parliament voting against a Trump visit. Where did this news come from as it is a bit of a surprising outcome given the healthy Tory majority in the Commons……………House of Lords perhaps?

  25. Peter Piper @3pm

    “A lot of the posts on here (I won’t name names) should serve as a cautionary tale to anyone who thinks grammar is unimportant in the 21st century.
    A lot or arguments seem to develop because people can’t tell the difference between what they actually posted and what they think they posted. Judicious use of full stops, commas and capital letters goes a long way to helping your argument.”

    Fantastic post PP.

    The fact is that many (though perhaps not all) grammar rules have evolved in the interests of clear and unambiguous communication.

    Unambiguous communication is especially important when significant events depend on it.

    Anyone who writes a will, a legal contract, a MOU, a diplomatic letter (in the formal sense , or even in the sense whereby two ordinary people are in dispute and wish to solve the dispute), a complaint, an appeal (say to an insurance claim knockback) etc etc has a vested interest in unambiguous communication. If their message is not clearly understood, they are the loser, even monetarily.

    A relative of mine with no sense of grammar at all frequently sends SMSs which are quite indecipherable. Once the message is more than a simple sentence (“meet me at the corner”) she may as well have not sent it, if communication was her purpose.

    The simple rule that a relative pronoun must immediately follow the noun it refers to, is a classic rule which if broken totally destroys meaning viz ……

    The man was shot by the assassin who was walking across the street

    Being a smart copper, I know to put a security cordon around the 3 story building just down the street, where the assassin had actually fired from a top story window.

    Those coppers who don’t understand grammar, and can’t see the error, go running up the street in pursuit of the pedestrian assassin.

  26. Zoomster
    #1098 Tuesday, February 21, 2017 at 12:28 pm

    “As for grammarians, you do know that grammar text books not only disagree amongst themselves, but are almost always (I don’t know of any exceptions, but am allowing for them) self contradictory?”

    I don’t think this is at all so. Could you give an example please.

    Where opinions vary is as to whether the particular rule has now outlived its usefulness, and by and large this depends on whether the rule was a rule of style, or a rule of function.

    There are grammar rules and grammar rules. Some are very minor and pedantic, for example ending a sentence with a preposition. This rule has now pretty well lapsed, and there are few (or no) consequences to this.

    But rules which are essential for the production of unambiguous meaning are widely agreed upon, and will not lapse while written communication is employed.

    Your very post is ironically most ambiguous.

    “grammar text books disagree amongst themselves!”

    Really. I hope they don’t come to fisticuffs and destroy the library furniture.

    “but they are almost always self contradictory”

    Now are you saying here (“self contradictory”) that each grammar book contradicts itself.

    Or are you saying that Grammar Book 1 contradicts Grammar Book 2, in which case they would be contradictory, not self contradictory.

    I am sure that these ambiguities can be easily cleared up by correct sentence structure.

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