BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record incremental movement to Labor on two-party preferred, and One Nation on the primary vote.

The return of Newspoll, along with the usual weekly result from Essential Research, has docked both major parties slightly on the primary vote, with One Nation continuing to go onward and upward. The difference on two-party preferred is slightly in favour of Labor, who also pick up one in Queensland on the seat projection. Leadership ratings from Newspoll send both leaders downward on net satisfaction, with no change on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. Jacqui Lambie releases YouTube video explaining what she knows about sharia Law

    JACQUI Lambie has admitted she’s “no expert” on sharia law, but has listed six reasons why it is not compatible with Australia.

    In the “explainer” uploaded to YouTube Ms Lambie seeks to confirm what knows about sharia law, following her clash with Muslim activist Yassmin Abdel-Magied on Q&A last night.

    The Tasmanian senator said by accepting the law you “accept all the good bits and the bad bits”.

    http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/jacqui-lambie-releases-youtube-video-explaining-what-she-knows-about-sharia-law/news-story/7b8d2267a8332b898562e85b520a7dfa

  2. Antonbruckner11
    [Do we really have much idea what’s going on out there? It all depends upon whether the pref flows from the last election are an accurate gauge. But who are these people who have drifted off to Pauline? Where will their prefs go?]
    They are the same people who voted for Trump they do not feel that they are heard.
    They are learning nothing but they are sick to death of being treated like fools and maybe they are right.

  3. Pauline and Jacqui at war …

    IF YOU’RE expecting a girl power partnership between Jacqui Lambie and Pauline Hanson, think again.

    Despite the pair having seemingly similar views on immigration and the Middle East, Ms Hanson has said the pair are “world’s apart on our views”.

    “She’s been on about Islam and picked it up on the side, I don’t think she’s fully into it,” Ms Hanson told news.com.au.

    “Jacqui votes with the Greens most of the time. We are world’s apart on our views.”

    “She [Lambie] has her issues to do with defence and she won’t be working with the government on the omnibus, I think that’s a shame.

    “She’s got a negative attitude towards the Coalition.”

    Ms Hanson used Ms Lambie’s proposed ban on full face coverings as an example of their different approach.

    Ms Lambie – as Ms Hanson explained – tabled the bill in Parliament which requests a burqa ban at times “when the terrorism threat level reaches the third highest alert rating of ‘Probable’, and remains in place for ‘expected’ and ‘certain’ ratings.”

    http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/jacqui-lambie-releases-youtube-video-explaining-what-she-knows-about-sharia-law/news-story/7b8d2267a8332b898562e85b520a7dfa

  4. lizzie

    The article illustrates the real point – that traditional and alternative medicines are tested scientifically all the time, and where they do work, they are developed into ‘modern’ medicines.

    A lot of what we regard as mainstream medicine is based on ‘old time’ ingredients – thymol, for example, is an extract of thyme; opium (obviously) comes from poppies; menthol comes from mint, etc.

    Of course, what happens is that the active ingredient is isolated. In some cases, it’s still cheaper to use ‘natural’ sources (although all sources are, by definition, natural); in others, a synthetic version is used.

    A chemical is a chemical is a chemical; it doesn’t make a hoot of difference whether is comes from a plant, a rock or a laboratory.

    (To digress; a plant doesn’t know the difference between a chemical it takes from a bit of horse manure or the same chemical from a commercial fertiliser…)

  5. ‘They are learning nothing but they are sick to death of being treated like fools and maybe they are right.’

    And sometimes people are treated like fools because they are fools.

  6. Its time for the clown show. Yes thats what QT has been reduced to again as the lack of an independent speaker like the UK has shows.

  7. And I would credit Shorten with the improvement in brand Labor. Having a solid policy platform helps, and he has consistently outmaneuvered the L-NP. If he makes PM he will surprise the punters on the upside. Being good at the backroom stuff might put punters off in theory, but it’s actually a very useful skill.

    Fashions come and go. But structural weaknesses will always have the last say.

    Turnbull is the Lord of a crumbling Manor berating the upstart next door who has completely renovated. He can say it’s ugly, that the design is gauche and the new neighbours are boorish social climbers without any of the graces of their betters.

    But Bill’s renovations are solid. The cracked footings have been underpinned and the rotted members replaced. The wiring and plumbing has been completely redone and the roof retiled to eliminate all the leaks. Bill’s place is going to withstand anything the elements can throw at it.

    Malcolm’s Manor however is virtually derelict. He keeps spending money on the facade to keep up appearances, but the whole pile is going to come crashing down without an almost complete rebuild. There are termites throughout the structure and only the rooms on the extreme right are still (barely) habitable. The joint leaks like a sieve and one of the gargoyles fell off nearly badly injuring him last week.

    Shouting over the fence at Bill isn’t going to help. But Mal’s too proud (and stupid) to call in the engineers and do what needs doing. It can’t end well.

  8. Jacqui – I’m the racist;
    Pauline – No, I’m the racist;
    Jacqui – I’m the racist;
    Pauline – No, I’m the racist;

  9. Trump Administration Was Warned Last Month About Michael Flynn’s Ties To Russia

    The controversy surrounding top Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn reached a boiling point on Monday as a new report from the Washington Post shows that the White House was warned by the Obama administration about Flynn’s ties to Russia late last month.

    Controversy has been swirling in full force around Flynn in recent days after it was revealed that, prior to Trump being sworn in, he made a pledge to Russia that the sanctions imposed on them by the Obama administration would be lifted.

    It’s unclear whether the president even cares Flynn had been in communication with the Russians prior to Trump taking office. After all, Trump himself has been stubbornly reluctant to say anything critical about Russia, while simultaneously being eager to lash out at U.S. allies.

    In any other White House, having questionable ties to Russia, as Flynn does, would likely lead to an immediate firing. In an administration led by Trump – who was essentially put in the White House by Russia – all bets are off.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/13/trump-warned-flynn-russia-ties.html

  10. I’d almost like Lambie were it not for her denialist views on climate change. She seems switched on to the issue of donor influence in politics; has she not considered that the misinformation she is regurgitating materialised as a result of fossil fuel interests? Or is she a beneficiary of that money?

  11. PhoenixRed

    These leaks are happening for a reason.
    I am still holding out that James Comey FBI is getting all his ducks in a row to bring down these fraudsters

  12. AR
    “reasonable regulation of the corporate sector is necessary”
    close your eyes and tap your heels together three times and think to yourself, ‘There’s no place like a market reasonably regulated’.

    I fear Smith was right, and a certain culture is required to control capitalism (or at least to allow meaningful regulation/enforcement to exist). I am not sure how prevalent that culture was back then but fairly sure its less so now.

    Maybe Marx’s prediction was right too.

  13. Lambie proves to be a useful idiot yet. If she can provide exposure of Hanson as a Liberal patsy then I can tolerate her racist ramblings.

    Hanson ego continues to grow, and her preparedness to further entrench herself with the Coalition grows with it. Any parliamentarian, particularly cross benchers like Lambie can easily goad her into pledging her loyalty to the Turnbull Government.

    Ramble away Jackie.

  14. victoria Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 2:12 pm

    PhoenixRed

    These leaks are happening for a reason.
    I am still holding out that James Comey FBI is getting all his ducks in a row to bring down these fraudsters

    *******************************
    At this moment – I don’t have the same confidence in Comey – all he appears to have done so far is act like a rightwing stooge ….. but I guess he still has a chance to be a ‘hero’ and disrupt a Russian takeover of the US

    I wonder what Flynn has on Trump and Pence ????? ….. and if he knows more will he be a ‘fall guy’ for them …..or bring down the deck of cards with him ????

  15. workmanalice: Greens ask when govt will withdraw its “dead in the water” omnibus bill. Govt in turn attacks them for not balancing the budget. #SenateQT

  16. PhoenixRed

    The Comey letter to congress re Clinton during election campaign was very strange to me. I felt at the time and still do, is that Comey was between a rock and a hard place. It had nothing to do with any loyalty to Trump and co. Time will tell if I am totally on the wrong track.
    Unless my vibe changes, I still hold out hope that Comey is not the villian but may yet turn out to be the hero

  17. Turdbull
    “The problem with socialists is eventually they run out of other people’s money.”

    The problem with the obscenely rich is they believe every cent of all ‘their’ money was hard earned and the people are poor because they deserve to be.

    Social Darwinism conveniently makes sense when you are wealthy and powerful.

  18. DQ – Pauline is desperate for “respectability” (not understanding that it is her lack of respectability that is her big appeal) so she is going to keep desperately pretending that the Libs “respect” her. What a dumby

  19. victoria Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 2:25 pm

    Unless my vibe changes, I still hold out hope that Comey is not the villian but may yet turn out to be the hero

    ******************************************
    Paul Ryan must be trembling with excitement that his moment is only a hiccup away …..

  20. I have no faith is anyone in the US bringing down Trump during his first ( and hopefully his only) term in office.
    Trump not getting a second term is the best I think I can hope for. A hostile congress after the next mid terms would be a bonus.

  21. phoenixred @ #831 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 2:30 pm

    victoria Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 2:25 pm
    Unless my vibe changes, I still hold out hope that Comey is not the villian but may yet turn out to be the hero
    ******************************************
    Paul Ryan must be trembling with excitement that his moment is only a hiccup away …..

    Will Paul Ryan end up being the Steven Bradbury of US politics?

  22. Joyce in fantasy land to try and divert attention from Nationals preferencing the Greens

    Burke does POO that its customary practice to have answers in English.

  23. victoria
    Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 2:34 pm

    PhoenixRed

    Unless Pence can prove he is not corrupted

    ***********************************
    I guess it’s – what did Trump and Pence know and when did they know it ????? ….. if they have been covering up …..then the are both for the high jump

    ‘What did he know and when did he know it’: David Gergen asks when Trump knew about Flynn blackmail risk

    Saying “This is very serious,” former White House adviser David Gergen invoked the ghost of the Watergate cover-up after it was reported that President Donald Trump was warned Gen. Michael Flynn was a possible security risk subject to blackmail by the Russians.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/what-did-he-know-and-when-did-he-know-it-david-gergen-asks-when-trump-knew-about-flynn-blackmail-risk/

  24. Victoria

    And I have told you why those reasons are BS. Justice Department guidelines about not reporting on ongoing investigations is clear no matter how many leaks the GOP make.

    Comey chose to publish one investigation but not the other.

    There is no hero status for Comey as history will record.

  25. “Palmer says he will sue Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Employment Minister Michaelia Cash for $10 million for defamation over “lies” about his role in the collapse of Queensland Nickel. Popcorn time?”

    Donald Trump threatens a lot of court actions too. Pity it won’t happen. I’d enjoy watching them bleed each other dry.

  26. Guytaur

    comey’s investigation into Trump and his cronies is not yet concluded. But there is a continuous drip drip of leaks and it all leads to a conclusion

  27. From what I saw on Twitter it seems Tony Burke interrupted a rabid Barnaby Joyce performance with a POO asking the Speaker that wasn’t it convention for answers to be given in English.
    Boom boom!

  28. Anton,
    Whatever her motivation Labor will be ecstatic that Hanson is making outrageous attacks on Shorten.

    People may not love, or even like Shorten. But they sure as hell are not going to believe he has been asking for policy advice from Hanson. Nor would even be inclined to believe that Labor was looking for a preference deal.

    Hanson will not lose credibility by being plain stupid, or a bad public speaker, or wimpering in that nervy way of hers. She will, however, lose credibility by cosying up to the Liberals ever closer. Particularly when they are currently led by Trunbull.

    Labor will no doubt have strategy that encourages this relationship to further flourish.

  29. Kinda strange how history repeats – with past ghosts of Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein – and the good old Washington Post coming to the fore on all this Flynn stuff ….

  30. Puff, The Magic Dragon.
    #760 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 12:41 pm
    Bk
    Q. What do you call alternative medicines that don’t work?
    A. Go on, I dare you

    Coalition policy.

    Tom.

  31. Victoria

    Too late. Trump is President thanks to Comey leaking one ongoing investigation not the other.

    Thats fact and trying to be a “hero” now will not change those facts.

  32. From the Guardian:

    Joyce begins with a long circuitous answer on Bill Shorten’s personal poll numbers. The vibe is about Labor leadership tensions but I can’t really give you an example of a whole sentence.

    Tony Burke takes a point of order:
    I refer to page 505 of practice, which reads, “Although there is no specific rules set down by standing order, the House follows the practice of requiring members’ speeches to be in English.”

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