Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A slight move back to the Coalition in this week’s Essential Research poll, which also gauges support for Donald Trump’s “Muslim ban”.

Labor slips back a point in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average, from 54-46 to 53-47, although this is to do with a particularly weak result for the Coalition a fortnight ago washing out of the result, rather than a turn in their favour this week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 36%, Labor is steady on 37%, One Nation is steady on 10%, and the Greens are down one to 8%. Other findings are that 49% disapprove of Donald Trump’s self-styled Muslim ban, with only 36% in favour. At least some of this would appear to be down to questions of implementation, as the gap is narrower on the question of whether Australia should do something similar, with 41% in support and 46% opposed. Fifty-three per cent agree with the Prime Minister’s position that it is not his job to comment, versus 36% who disagree. Other questions relate to technology use, including a finding that 50% say technological change is making lives better, with 25% opting for worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,021 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. ‘A vote for Barnett is a vote for Pauline Hanson!’

    Given current polling I was thinking a vote for Hanson is a vote for Barnett

  4. greensborough growler @ #2836 Sunday, February 12, 2017 at 8:15 pm

    bemused,
    But what about the population density?

    Densification is already taking place and I both hope and predict it will continue.
    The urban sprawl is swallowing up some of our most productive for market gardens and other food production. This is a serious concern.
    If suburbia does not get reasonable public transport then the demand for roads increases and the beast feeds off itself.
    Where the case for roads is indisputable is for movement of goods and for tradesmen and others with equipment to carry. So why should the roads they must have be clogged by others with alternative means of transport?

  5. Cue picture of Barnett morphing in to Hanson.
    A vote for Barnett is a vote for Pauline Hanson!

    And I suggest vice versa. The opposite might work too. If someone’s scared and cheesed off with the ‘establishment’, why vote for the running dog of the Government, which is what One Nation are with this preference deal? I am assuming here that ON voters follow the HTV card without giving it much thought.

  7. greensborough growler @ #2801 Sunday, February 12, 2017 at 7:38 pm

    The public transport comparison to Singapore is rubbish.
    here in Australia you need roads, highways, freeways airports for people to get aroun plus off road bike tracks and trams as well as long distance rail and suburban rail. Therefore the dollar is spread thinner than in population dense and restricted size areas like Singapore.
    You’re comparing apples with fruit salad.

    Plus Singaporeans are largely required to STFU and do what the authorities want.

    Reminds me of that old joke – Biafran an Indian and a Singaporean are asked –

    What is your opinion of the nutritional value of beef?

    The Biafran says – what is nutrition ?

    The Indian says – what is beef ?

    The Singaporean says – what is an opinion?

  12. Boerwar,
    1. Fear of muslims combined by anger that the elites either don’t get it or are not paying the consequences. One nuance is that the elites don’t care that the muslims are successfully grabbing social welfare from genuine people who deserve it as a birthright.

    At the risk of being called a bogan or a bigot by the more ‘enlightened’ of our posters here (aka Greens supporters 🙂 ), I can see that there is some real truth to those points.

    Not that others deserve Welfare as a ‘birthright’, but that there is a certain, concrete sub-section of the recent emigre cohort, if I can put it delicately, that are all for going gung ho to take advantage of our Welfare system.

    Yes, there are plenty of others not from the recent emigre cohort who also take advantage of the Welfare system but they don’t stick out as much, or aren’t pointed out as often as the other lot who dress such that stick out in a crowd and so become easy targets.

    To reinforce my point, one of the comments on the Sky News page on facebook accompanying the Bill Shorten press conference today was a statement which said that Labor were supporters of the Middle Eastern ‘swamp’ in Western Sydney and that’s why they support the Muslim religion so much…because they just want to hang on to their seats in parliament.

    Of course, not true, and to which I replied that is that why the Liberal Party have been trying so hard to win the seats in Western Sydney?

    Nevertheless, as you say, these peoples’ inchoate anger is being taken out against the Muslims in our midst, largely because they are impotent against the multinational corporations in our midst who are virtually invisible but are the real culprits and cause of the other points on your list.

  17. confessions @ #2827 Sunday, February 12, 2017 at 8:05 pm

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 2m2 minutes ago
    The new normal in Australian political discourse which sees bigoted views freely expressed is not what free speech is all about.

    Err not really – its the so called ‘political discourse’ of the so called liberal party not of broader Australia.

    Its not the ‘new normal’ its the howard doctrine in its latest iteration.

    The non liberal doctrine of the so called liberal party – is firmly on course to tear itself apart and/or tear the country party ala the US.

    The common thread in it all is murdoch.

  18. “Exactly. The biggest liars always win when it comes to slogan-based politics.”

    You’re completely missing the point. Pay less tax is a slogan that represents the view that we should pay less tax. If you believe that we should pay more tax then you need to be able to communicate that message in a concise and meaningful fashion. And if you can’t then maybe your idea is crap.

  19. P1
    The area served by the entire greater Sydney rail system is a lot more than Sydney. You are talking about Newcastle to Woolongong. PT mode share in that outer area is very low and it is not representative of the area of Sydney SD.

    I have been looking at some provincial French cities recently that have lower population density than Melbourne and Sydney, but far better PT.

  21. el guapo @ #2847 Sunday, February 12, 2017 at 8:32 pm

    “Yes, but the point is that if you try and reduce everything to a three word slogan, don’t be surprised if “pay less taxes” beats “save the environment” every time.”
    Then you need a better slogan! “Pay Less Tax” will also beat a complex explanation of the fact that tax underpins the civilised polity we inhabit.

    I saw footage of a loony Trump supporter on TV recently.
    First he moaned about too much tax.
    Next he rattled of a whole list of things he wanted, all services provided or funded by Govt.
    Reconcile that if you will!

  26. The latest Gallop poll has Trump plumbing new depths.

    What’s interesting is that for the first 6 days opinion was pretty much even, and then all of a sudden…BOOM! It’s like after his first week post inauguration was enough for voters to turn.

  28. And while slogans are one form of effective communication there are others. Those who mocked Bill Shorten for his zingers did so foolishly in my view, for they were often very effective. He seems to have put them away unfortunately. That the CPG was opposed to them may have been a clue to their merit.

  30. The Jews were targetted in Europe traditionally because they were ‘different” to the mainstream – and that always implies that there’s something wrong with the mainstream.

    After all, if our lifestyle is so terrific, then anyone who experiences our lifestyle must want to live the same way we do.

    If someone looks at the way we’re living, and says – no matter how politely – that, not thanks, they’d rather keep doing what they’re doing, then they’re saying that there’s something wrong with the way we’re living.

    Which we know there isn’t, and can’t be, so the fault must lie with them…

    So, when you want to fool yourself or others into believing that something isn’t your fault or the fault of your society, then you’ve got a ready made scapegoat.

    And, of course, no one wants to admit that they’re unemployed because of some fault in themselves.

    That may all sound very unsympathetic, but it’s not – I’m just trying to explain the mindset of someone who left school relatively early, thinking that they didn’t need no education because they’d always have a job, and who finds themselves unemployed and unemployable a couple of decades down the track…

  31. greensborough growler @ #2863 Sunday, February 12, 2017 at 8:48 pm

    Bemused,
    My point is, was and continues to be that Singapore is a stupid comparison to Australia.

    I stand by my original statement that they know how to plan, build and run a metro rail system. We could learn from them.
    But of course our cities are different to Singapore and our rails system would need to be adjusted for our topography.
    But we still need to do much better on planning, building and operating. Socrates has the numbers.

  33. In my sixty years on this earth, in the Uk and in Oz, I’ve seen campaigns of vilification against:

    In the Uk:
    Irish, espescially after the Birmingham pub bombs
    Wesr Indians
    Ugandan Asians
    Pakistanis
    People from Liverpool after Hillsborough
    Miners from Yorkshire, Durham and Wales

    In Oz:
    Aboriginal people
    Dock workers
    Asians
    CFMEU members
    Muslims

    And no doubt the generation before could compile a similar list.

    All appealing to our worst instincts …. but all ultimately fail.

  36. bemused,

    I’m not surprised.

    You’ve never backed off from doubling down on stupid, offensive, abusive or incorrect assertions.

  39. In other news, guess who’s going to be in the audience for Q&A tomorrow night?

    Moi and son!

    I’ll probably want to hurl a rotten tomato at Sen James Patterson, but I will refrain and just do it mentally. 🙂

  42. Socrates

    Oh, and by the way. Here are the population densities of Sydney vs Singapore according to Wikipedia:

    Singapore – 7,797/km2
    Sydney – 400/km2

    So, about 20 times according to 2015 figures. My more recent figures make it about 25, but I’ll settle for 20.

  43. ‘Fess,
    Three weeks of President Trump feels like 8 years of a normal president. How will we feel after a year?!

    You know, I think in that comment you’ve hit upon what may be a large contributing factor to Trump’s unpopularity. I remember reading once that electorates don’t like too much change too quickly and tend to mark down their political leaders who go that way. I think it was one of the criticisms of the Gillard and Rudd governments. Too much, too soon.

    So as Trump has come into power and just gone bang! bang! bang! bang! with his Executive Orders, people are feeling shell-shocked and the normal rhythm of their lives has been turned on it’s head. Hence, they are expressing their disquiet.

  48. In other news, guess who’s going to be in the audience for Q&A tomorrow night?

    Moi and son!

    Well done. Who else is on the panel?

  50. So as Trump has come into power and just gone bang! bang! bang! bang! with his Executive Orders, people are feeling shell-shocked

    You also hear it in the commentary that people are seeing too much of him, he’s ubiquitous and everywhere. I know Bill Maher isn’t representative of your average voter, but he made the comment on his show yesterday that people were already sick of him by the time the campaign ended.

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