Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A slight move back to the Coalition in this week’s Essential Research poll, which also gauges support for Donald Trump’s “Muslim ban”.

Labor slips back a point in this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly average, from 54-46 to 53-47, although this is to do with a particularly weak result for the Coalition a fortnight ago washing out of the result, rather than a turn in their favour this week. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 36%, Labor is steady on 37%, One Nation is steady on 10%, and the Greens are down one to 8%. Other findings are that 49% disapprove of Donald Trump’s self-styled Muslim ban, with only 36% in favour. At least some of this would appear to be down to questions of implementation, as the gap is narrower on the question of whether Australia should do something similar, with 41% in support and 46% opposed. Fifty-three per cent agree with the Prime Minister’s position that it is not his job to comment, versus 36% who disagree. Other questions relate to technology use, including a finding that 50% say technological change is making lives better, with 25% opting for worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,021 thoughts on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. If anybody understand “Telstra” speak.
    My internet “bundle” has been delayed for between 24 – 48 hours.
    What would that be in real time please ❓

  2. This is an interesting article on how those locations where there was a noticeable increase in diversity were more likely to vote Trump.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/01/upshot/strife-over-immigrants-can-california-foretell-nations-future.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot

    In the longer term increasing diversity leads to increased tolerance. But in the short term it can have the opposite affect, especially if there’s a politician around trying to exploit it. The other thing to note is that increases are more noticeable in small communities than cities, again places that were more likely to vote for Trump.
    I’m wondering if this also helps to explain Brexit.

  3. My Crikey sub will shortly run out after many years of repeated subbing.
    I will not be renewing it because, after numerous requests from divers posters over the course of something like a decade on this, and various other technical matters, the ONLY quick way I can get it to refresh is to enter a post and hit submit.
    So, I whack in some punctuation marks and hit enter.
    My alternative is to re enter the site and go through the rigamarole of logging in etc, etc, etc.
    I am sorry that I will not be renewing my sub because I value the unpredictability of what goes on in the Crikey news bit.
    But there it is.

  4. Question to Turnbull: Is this black or is it white”?
    Answer: Kitchen table.

    He is going nowhere near addressing the questions Shorten is asking.

  5. boerwar @ #161 Wednesday, February 8, 2017 at 2:09 pm

    My Crikey sub will shortly run out after many years of repeated subbing.
    I will not be renewing it because, after numerous requests from divers posters over the course of something like a decade on this, and various other technical matters, the ONLY quick way I can get it to refresh is to enter a post and hit submit.
    So, I whack in some punctuation marks and hit enter.
    My alternative is to re enter the site and go through the rigamarole of logging in etc, etc, etc.
    I am sorry that I will not be renewing my sub because I value the unpredictability of what goes on in the Crikey news bit.
    But there it is.

    I experience none of that.
    I suggest you have a look at your configuration.

  6. I don’t see how Gillespie has a problem. The Australia post licensee has a deal with the Cth, Gillespie doesn’t (at the moment, anyway)

  7. An automatic logout is a good security feature.

    What Crikey has done is that when you come to log back in you are forced to see their home page website.

    So the question is how long should you stay logged in before you are logged out?

  8. Interesting development re: David Gillespie, but I’m not sure our media understand how our government works.

    As far as I can tell. If a person was eligible on the date of enrollment, but has since become ineligible to hold office, then they are removed from office – a by-election is held for HoR, and the party chooses the replacement for the Senate.

    In the case where the person was not eligible to stand, in the Senate, a recount of the original vote is undertaken and the seat goes to whoever would have won if the ineligible person had not been on the roll. Surely the same would apply in the HoR, the vote would be recounted, and any votes that went to David, whether initially, or on preferences, simply go to the next candidate preferenced? No need for a by-election.

  9. Appreciated this:
    Normalization is code for a retreat from any sense of moral and political responsibility, and it should be viewed as an act of political complicity with authoritarianism and condemned outright.
    from
    http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/39378-combating-trump-s-neo-fascism-and-the-ghost-of-1984
    I would argue that this is happening here in Australia too, Cory Bernardi is being portrayed as just another conservative – he is not.

  10. Most of the problems with the site seem to have to do with Ipad and phone use.

    I’m using a laptop (Windows/Chrome) and things work OK. It’s at least a month since I’ve had to log on.

  11. Sam Maiden has been tweeting on this subject for a while. She’s not impressed with the pollies or the journos.

    Samantha Maiden ‏@samanthamaiden · 3m3 minutes ago

    To conclude, essentially if you haven’t interacted with system as parent most journos wouldn’t have clue about FTB & childcare and it shows

  12. At the RC Archbishop Coleridge is tying himself up in knots about the future.

    And the grey haired lady Commissioner just called him to task and he didn’t even realise it.

    His crapping on about possible future accountability systems, and Her Honour said that they are no different to the past because they rely on individuals choosing to do the right thing. Right over his head.

    Now he’s saying how independent of Rome he is and how important he is and Her Honour is now asking him to explain how in his excuses this morning he said that he could only do what Rome allowed him.

    I’m coming to the conclusion he’s a lightweight, not too bright, look-at-me bullshit artist.

    IMHO there’s only one course of action to sort out the Catholic Church and the contradictions that Canon Law imposes. We need commonwealth legislation which mandates notification of child abuse, and incorporates a provision which specifies that it applies to clergy etc etc, with mandatory severe penalties. And gaol one or two of them.

    It might also mandate that the church funds specialist independent investigation units.

  13. Boerwar
    #161 Wednesday, February 8, 2017 at 2:09 pm

    I am using Windows 10
    Using Firefox
    plus
    Greasemonkey with scripts for CCCP and STFU (unused),emoji polyfill plus twitter emoji.
    Once logged in my system more or less stays logged on indefinitely.
    Nothing clever about either me or the system, it just works fine for me.
    Good luck. 🙂

  14. Ctar1

    I often use iPad and have no problems at all. Ditto re iPhone, where the only problem is the small keyboard.

    Both remain permanently “signed in” as long as I don’t force quit.

  15. Tudge has discovered an example where Centrelink officer made a manual (!) error and is using that to push back against Labor’s request to return to human checking.

  16. One of the expert witnesses is now also calling Coleridge out.

    In reference to Truth Justice and Healing (the Melbourne solution), it was implemented very poorly across the country, because it was not mandated by the Oz Bishops as was in their power to do so. In essence he says that the facts show that you can’t trust the bishops to be part of the solution.

  17. It wrong, I know, very, very wrong…

    …but I would happily give Nicolle Flint some one-on-one private tutoring on the Australian power system operation and policy regimes, if she’s really interested. Bad bad bad me.

  18. Let’s go, Labor. Does Tudge really believe there are few errors????

    Substandard and Poor ‏@64AnthonyP · 5m5 minutes ago

    So Tudge just asked @LindaBurneyMP to refer EVERY #centrelink error to him. Bwahahahahahahahahaha!

  19. Guytaur
    #169 Wednesday, February 8, 2017 at 2:29 pm
    An automatic logout is a good security feature.

    What Crikey has done is that when you come to log back in you are forced to see their home page website.

    So the question is how long should you stay logged in before you are logged out?

    Uhm, no. It does log me out, perhaps 4 – 6 times a year only though.

    Tom

  20. I’ll make this the last post for a while

    The look on Coleridge’s face for the last hour has been amazing … enjoyable … he looks so under threat. The 3 lay experts are up him like a rat up a rafter.

    But he can’t resist another burst of self defence and self justification and poor me whose hands are tied. He must revel in looking foolish.

  21. Trump’s Numbers Continue To Tank As 60% Of Americans Don’t Think He’s ‘Level-Headed’

    It’s been less than three weeks since Donald Trump took the oath of office, and the American people are starting to question whether the new president is even sane enough to hold a job.

    According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, a whopping 60 percent of registered voters say that Trump is not “level-headed.” Just a dismal 35 percent of the survey’s respondents say that he is.

    Overall, the poll reflects a resounding rejection of Trump as a person and the agenda he has worked to implement over the course of his first several weeks in office.

    Some other findings that don’t bode well for Trump:
    •54 percent say he is not honest
    •50 percent say he doesn’t have good leadership skills
    •52 percent say that he doesn’t care about the average American
    •58 percent say that he does not share their values

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/07/trumps-numbers-continue-crumble-60-americans-level-headed.html

  22. This is vital research which could save lives.

    Logging practices can “greatly increase the severity of fires” in extreme weather conditions such as Black Saturday, Australian researchers have said.

    Researchers from the Australian National University (ANU) and Melbourne University examined hundreds of thousands of trees burnt in the 2009 bushfires in Victoria, which claimed the lives of 173 people on a day of extreme temperatures and high winds.

    They found that the increased fire risk began about seven years after an area had been logged and lasted for another 50 years.

    Professor David Lindenmayer, from the ANU, said the results showed the fires around Kinglake and Marysville were about 25 per cent more severe due to the clear-felling of forest in the area.

    “If we cut down a forest tomorrow, we’re still going to be adding to the fire risk in 50 years time,” he told 774 ABC Melbourne.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-04/logging-greatly-increases-fire-risk-black-saturday:-study/5646220

  23. Interesting to compare the top three stories on the ABC news website right now:

    An unpopular government cuts benefits to the young to pay for business tax cuts:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-08/abc-politics-blog-feb-8/8249604
    Meanwhile a generation realises that they will be poorer than their parents.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-08/millennials-worried-about-the-future/8250250
    And the CEO of a government enterprise gets $5.6 M, but its OK?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-08/australia-post-ceo-ahmed-fahour-salary-too-high-malcolm-turnbull/8250764

    Am I living in 21st Century Australia, or the setting of a Dickensian novel? Its time.

  24. Tom

    Most websites log you out twice a day. This is due to security.

    Crikey should do as well.

    More than that would be too much in my view.

    This site is behind in many ways. Not being able to use emojies is just one of them however arguable its deliberate policy emojies are standard now.

  25. Yemen Withdraws Permission for U.S. Antiterror Ground Missions

    WASHINGTON — Angry at the civilian casualties incurred last month in the first commando raid authorized by President Trump, Yemen has withdrawn permission for the United States to run Special Operations ground missions against suspected terrorist groups in the country, according to American officials.

    Grisly photographs of children apparently killed in the crossfire of a 50-minute firefight during the raid caused outrage in Yemen.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/07/world/middleeast/yemen-special-operations-missions.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

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