Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The only pollster to have reported so far this year finds One Nation reaching double figures, amid an otherwise stable set of results on voting intention.

The steady ascent of One Nation continues in this week’s fortnight rolling average from Essential Research, which finds the party up a point to 10% to surpass the Greens, down one to 9%, with the Coalition, Labor and Nick Xenophon Team steady on 35%, 37% and 3%. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 54-46.

The poll also finds Australia’s “current political and economic system” is deemed in need of fundamental change by 40%, refinement by 44%, and no change by 6%. There are also familiar findings about who does and doesn’t pay enough tax (61% say mining companies pay too little, 72% the same for large international companies, and religious organisations come in at 58%). Sixty per cent rated that higher tax on multinational companies would be good for the economy, versus 11% for bad.

On trade, 47% say free trade agreements are, generally speaking, a good thing for Australia, versus 15% for bad – which I’m a bit surprised by given other recent trade-related findings. Fifty-two per cent thought Australia should pursue a Trans-Pacific Partnership type agreement without the United States, versus only 19% who thought it should pull out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,137 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Oh ffs.

    They really do need to make up their minds. Either he’s a union hack, or he’s just discovered ‘jobs’. Can’t really be both can he?

  2. Ratsak
    Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 5:26 pm
    However, I will continue to underestimate Trump. I underestimated Tony Abbott, but in the end he proved he never had it in him. The same will be true of Trump.

    As with Abbott, it’s not a case of underestimating the man – both have (will) prove to be even more useless than their critics thought.

    It’s a case of overestimating the voters. (and I’ll continue to do so out of hope more than experience)

    Well put.

  3. ‘Just to keep Adrian glued to the ABC in breathless anticipation ….. so he wont turn over to “I’m a Celebrity” or “MKR” ……..’

    Well now that you mention it….

  4. O the last section I posted

    Been a busy day for me but looking at the SMH when I came in to see this headline in bold print.
    “What sort of government is too cowardly to stand up to naked fascism? Ours”
    There can be no recovery for Mal, I can not recall a major media outlet in the past 50 years been so negative to a sitting PM. The LNP has to make a move if it is to limit the damage, with so many potential leaders to chose from should be no problem 😉

  5. Motorists have been told to expect “extensive delays” more than 12 hours after a fiery crash between a truck and a mobile crane on the M1 Pacific Motorway, with cars queued for 19 kilometres in the lead-up to the evening peak.

    The B-double truck was engulfed in a fireball following the collision with the crane near the Pacific Highway overpass at Brooklyn, just south of the Hawkesbury River Bridge, about 4am on Tuesday.

    …The truck and the crane involved in the crash have been removed, however the road surface is significantly damaged and crews are figuring out how it can be repaired.

  6. Just catching up and apart from noting, with approval, the latest Essential, also noted a number of other Aquarian wimmin here. Count in another. Happy Birthdays, us!

  7. Victoria
    Scares the proverbial out of me as I think that’s what’s happening. Steve Bannon is clearly very dangerous.
    I shudder to think what will happen in the US as there are clearly parts of the States that will not tolerate a coup.

  8. Nadhim Zahawi Verified account 

    Incredible!UKParliament just voted unanimously urging US Government to repeal the immigration order. Very proud of UKParliament.#MuslimBan

  9. Alan Davis

    “The LNP has to make a move if it is to limit the damage, ”
    Unfortunately in Trump the party of Stop the Boats, Children Overboard and “We will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances under which they come” has someone who is doing what so many in their party dream of doing. Be it sticking up immigrants (especially muslim ones), law officers, UN, Climate change etc. So not much chance.

    Trump is a “Fox News 2GB government”.

  10. Victoria
    The reports I’ve been reading, many linked to from kind posters here, are very disturbing and suggest various scenarios playing out, none of them favourable to the US polity, and therefore the rest of us. The plonker meme being trotted out by many in the MSM, to the effect of, he’s just getting on with what he said he’d do, is just that.
    It’s got me into a great deal of trouble from time to time. Mind you, I wouldn’t have done anything different, despite being, very uncomfortingly (Is that a word?), in the public eye.

  11. Shorten’s speech was workmanlike rather than brilliant today. His Q&A session was a superior performance, IMO. Shorten was confident, assured, and looked and sounded like he knew what he was about.

    Made Sabra Lane look like a fool after she asked a foolish question. Lane got gutted by her attempted gotcha. Nice to see.
    Turnbull’s speech has widely been laid down by the right wing commentariat as his chance to reset, his chance to set out his 2017/18 program and his chance to um… well, at least LOOK like he might be prime ministerial material.
    He goes into the speech with a shocker of a Jan 2017 start to the year. Ley was sacrificed but the other carpet baggers including notably Hunt and Brandis escaped unscathed. He promoted four men after chopping a senior woman. His performance on the TPP was catastrophic. His gutlessness in the fact of Trumpwreck’s warmongering and Trumpwreck’s muslim sectarian bashing are further embellishments of the leitmotiv of an empty suit. Abbott continues to snipe relentlessly and has basically undercut the Coalition’s number 1 weapon against Shorten: the RET. Joyce’s contribution, qua DPM, was puerile at best and lunatic at worst over the break. Hanson continues to hoover the lunatic right out of the Liberals. Bernardi looks ready to split. Christensen continues to white ant the sanity out of the Liberals. Frydenberg continues to sell what most of the electorate does not want: burning more coal.
    The economy looks sick. Wage growth is torpid if not actually a dead parrot for the vast majority of Australians.
    JBishop has gone missing in action. Morrison continues to make himself look like a dill.

    It will have to be a good speech to the NPC to fix all that.

  12. Monica L

    Trump has always been who he is. The rest of us will have just have to hope that the powers that be see fit to do something about this lunatic

  13. Monica @#66
    I don’t really care what happens to the US – it can implode for all I care, I have no love for the USA at all; but; how it impacts Australia I care about very much. We are likely to get dragged out to sea in the undertow and may (metaphorically) drown (most likely in the South China Sea) as a consequence.

  14. BW, I sometime worry that his stilted oratory will cause voters (that are there for the taking) to switch off before they hear the message. I wonder if this dampens the ALP primary vote.

    As I said earlier…he was hot and cold.

    I noticed the Lane smackdown. Hard not to.

  15. FWIW,

    Steve Bannon looks like a crazy, rich, fat, bear of a man – somewhere between Brando at his weirdest and Albert Grossman.

  16. Victoria
    I’m hoping someone has substituted the actual nuclear codes for Mickey Mouse ones.
    I guess I was pointing to the impact of Trump on us. When you have someone as dreadfully unhinged as Trump in charge of nuke codes, it certainly tightens one’s sphincter, probably uselessly.

  17. Monica L

    Agree re the nukes.
    Trump is a clear and present danger. Still remain optimistic that he will come undone sooner than later

  18. Well observed, Boerwar. I agree that Bill really ‘loosened the tie’ so to speak for the journo’s questions and proved, if any proof still were necessary, that he is a man on top of his brief and on top of his game.

  19. Victoria
    I so hope you’re right about Trump coming unstuck, however, I’m also freaked about what’s happening with climate change. The Trump mob will do anything they can to continue in their usual way.
    I’m off for the night

  20. Just saw a few bits and pieces of both the speech and q&a from Shortens NPC address (skipped through it on iview before heading out) and I have to say the guy has nailed the exact pitch he needs to take for these times. Response to K Murphy was instructive – “populism plus values” if you will

  21. Question
    Agree with you ,I am also wondering what will happen, after years of being confident all will be OK.,Especially after the Doomsday clock was advanced when Trump was inaugurated

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