ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

A GetUp! commissioned poll records the government sinking, One Nation nudging into double figures, and widespread hostility to the government’s shakedown of welfare recipients.

The Fairfax papers report that a ReachTEL poll commissioned by GetUp! has Labor leading 54-46 (I wouldn’t normally give a non-media poll its own post, but you take what you can get at this time of year). When responses for a separate follow-up question prompting the 7.8% undecided are integrated into the result, the primary votes are Liberal 33.8% and Nationals 3.2% (a combined 37.1%, compared with 42.0% at the election), Labor 35.0% (up 0.3% on the election), Greens 9.8% (down 0.4%) and One Nation 10.6%.

The poll also finds 46.2% supporting and 31.8% opposing the government “stopping the automated debt collection system”, though I wonder if the wordiness of the preceding explanation* and the negatively framed question might have caused confusion, resulting in opposition being understated. Certainly that might help to explain the finding that more respondents (49.8%) said the system had made them less likely to vote for the Coalition than said they wanted it stopped. Of the remainder, 14.4% said it had made them more likely to vote for the Coalition, while 35.8% said it would make no difference.

A GetUp!-styled money shot question found 82.2% responding that “cracking down on corporate tax dodging” should be a “higher priority for the Turnbull government”, compared with 17.8% who favoured recovering debts from Centrelink overpayments, with even Liberal voters dividing two to one in favour of the former option. A further question had 78.6% responding that the burden of proof in establishing wrongful overpayment should fall on Centrelink, compared with 21.4% for the recipient – though here too the question is a bit wordy for my tastes**.

The automated phone poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 2126.

* “The Turnbull Government recently started using an automated system issuing tens of thousands of letters to Australians about alleged debts from Centrelink overpayments. The Government admits that at least 20% of these letters are incorrect, but the burden is on Centrelink clients to correct the information or pay the debt. Do you support or oppose the Government stopping the automated debt collection system?”

** “The Turnbull Government has acknowledged significant errors in the Centrelink automated debt collection system. Where there are potential errors, do you think the burden should be on Centrelink to verify their claims against information they already have on file or on the individual to defend themselves, which may include accessing pay slips and employment records from up to five years ago?”

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,415 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. This has been a most upsetting afternoon in Melbourne. It’s brought back so many dreadful things, Hoddle St., son got off the train just before the shooting started and we lived just behind the servo; Russel St bombing, just turned the corner into the hospital when the bomb went off; Black Saturday fires, first responder team on the Monday after.
    That’s just for starters, so thanks for the virtual hugs. Much appreciated.
    Daniel Andrews was very good in responding as he did. Very heartfelt and respectful.

  4. Cupidstunt
    Friday, January 20, 2017 at 2:38 pm
    “And the sad part is 23 people liked his tweet.”

    ..’liking’ a tweet is used as a way of storing it ..similar to putting it in a ‘favourites’ folder. It doesn’t necessarily mean they actually like it..

  6. Greensborough Growler
    Friday, January 20, 2017 at 6:10 pm
    Re Leyonholm,

    “Everybody’s mocking at him.
    But, he don’t hear a word they’re saying.
    Only the echo in his mind.”

    ..that is a brilliant post ..and tweet ..respect!!

  8. ML
    Just phoned the Melbourne rellies to make sure. The overturned pram and the age of the victims fitted. Nothing to worry about, as statistically I knew. But still…
    BTW, stuff the digital disruption. The next time you are up this way drop in for a real hug.

  10. Ngila Bevan ‏@NgilaPWDA 2h2 hours ago

    Breaking: Productivity Commission Inquiry into #NDIS costs announced by @cporterwa @ScottMorrisonMP #auspol

  12. Meanwhile, Malcolm is serving up the champers on the lawns of Kirribilli House tomorrow. With the man he once called “some demented plutocrat in New York” in attendance

    “Share on FacebookShare on twitter
    by Joe Aston
    Many a chairman and chief executive feared a falling from grace as November and then December began elapsing with no sign of a summons to the Prime Minister’s Christmas party. Some big name bizoids really made their indignance known. It’s an industrialist’s right, after all – part of the basic package – to be received by a grateful ruler. And we thought the pollies had an entitlement problem…

    They needn’t have feared – at least most of them, anyway – with Malcolm Turnbull throwing open the gates of Kirribilli House on Saturday afternoon. Having entertained Coalition colleagues, the Canberra Press Gallery and the top military, bureaucratic and arts officials on three separate evenings at The Lodge right before Santa came, and then another batch of stakeholders and friends at Kirribilli on New Year’s Eve, the Turnbulls decided they’d move this soiree to January. As much as he’d like, the PM isn’t likely to make a tradition of it – by January 2018 the party room will have thanked him for his service then moved him to the backbench seat next to Tony Abbott (and Kevin Andrews) and/or Sydney Harbour will be drier than the Aral Sea, rendering the official residence’s vista terrifyingly dystopian.

    While the usual laundry list of bank bosses and resources Rich Listers will line the historic patio tomorrow arvo, sweating stubbies in hand, the plight of working families worn heavily on their brows, it’s the presence of a media mogul that’ll lend the reception a certain je ne sais quoi! Yup, the Sun King himself, Rupert Murdoch, and his live-in carer Jerry Hall, are down to attend. KRM’s Gulfstream 650 is expected on the tarmac at Sydney’s Kingsford Smith Airport on Friday.

    Rupes will no doubt be checking in on the troops next week, just like the Grosse Frau of Park Street, Yvonne Bauer, who has similarly made the trek to inspect her big Antipodean venture, Bauer Media Australia. She took her publishers to dinner in Sydney on Wednesday night. With cover price and advertising revenue collapsing, leaving her 2012 investment ($525 million) looking tragic, we can’t imagine there was too much champagne being popped.
    ‘

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/rupert-murdoch-malcolm-turnbull-to-break-bread-at-kirribilli-house-20170119-gtunlr#ixzz4WHxHID00
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  13. Boerwar,
    The dread is just awful, so very pleased to know all is well.
    When the London bombings happened, we knew step daughter travelled on the train line targetted and spent many an anxious hour till we could raise her.
    Would love to drop in when next we’re up your way. Would love to meet you and your HI as I’ve been very interested in so many of your stories over the years.
    Now that both HI and myself have new specs as of today, it might even be possible!

  15. So Scott Morrison’s brilliant political idea for the year is to sick the Productivity Commission, filled as it is now with ideological economic zealots, onto Bill Shorten’s baby, the NDIS and so produce a report which will bend it completely out of shape so as to make it unrecognisable.

    Truly the Coalition give Mad Cow Disease a good name, so addled are their brains and stuck on a jihad on the poor and the disabled.

  18. Guardian Australia ‏@GuardianAus 10s10 seconds ago

    China eyes an opportunity to take ownership of climate change fight

    China 20 Million….. Australia -20 Million.

  26. Boerwar

    ‘Abbott criticises ‘leadership revolving door.’
    bwahahahahaha

    Cos the revolving door won’t revolve for him ? 😉

  30. Appalling news from Melbourne – my best wishes in this trying time for the injured, the deceased and the friends and loved ones of both. Peace.

    PS: David Leyonhjelm, go eff yourself.

  31. More risible than even his “revolving-door leadership” jibe is Abbott’s attempt to rewrite the history of his Government:

    “A government without proper processes would not have stopped the boats, concluded the big FTAs (free trade agreements) and made a very strong start to budget repair.”

    Ummm……no, mate, no. Your “government” was an utterly shambolic mess, a throwback to the forelock-tugging days of Menzies without Menzies’ wit, style, courtesy or genuine (if misplaced) concern for the public good. And the public had caught onto you, too – which was why you were turfed! Your backers could read the polls, they saw you leading them to a wipeout and they decided to put a trendier face to the same old policies.

  32. But, he don’t hear a word they’re saying.
    Only the echo in his mind.”

    Lots of room for resonant effects in there. Possible to find a concept that would echo in there in just the right way to make his head explode??

  33. Waleed Aly writing in the NY Times imparts a little electoral reform advice from the Land Downunder:

    It’s time for democracies to adopt compulsory voting. I say this from Australia, one of about a dozen countries where people can be penalized for not voting (about a dozen more have compulsory voting on the books but don’t enforce it). We’ve done so at the federal level since 1924, following a drop in voter turnout. We’re now required by law to enroll at 18 years old (though this isn’t strictly monitored), and we’re fined if we fail to vote. Around three-quarters of Australians have consistently supported compulsory voting, and there is no meaningful movement for change.

    Continue reading the main story
    The evidence is mixed on whether compulsory voting favors parties of the right or the left, and some studies suggest that most United States federal election results would be unchanged. But all that misses the point because it overlooks that compulsory voting changes more than the number of voters: It changes who runs for office and the policy proposals they support.

    In a compulsory election, it does not pay to energize your base to the exclusion of all other voters. Since elections cannot be determined by turnout, they are decided by swing voters and won in the center. Australia has its share of xenophobic politicians, but they tend to dwell in minor parties that do not even pretend they can form a government.

    That is one reason Australia’s version of the far right lacks anything like the power of its European or American counterparts. Australia has had some bad governments, but it hasn’t had any truly extreme ones and it isn’t nearly as vulnerable to demagogues.

    Even today, as Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull faces an insurgency from the right wing of his conservative party, the principal threat is that these politicians will form a breakaway party — not that they will take over. They can’t, and even if they could, they would quickly face electoral oblivion unless they moderated. That’s more or less the story of the government of Mr. Turnbull’s predecessor, Tony Abbott, which indulged in too many ideological frolics and crashed after only two years.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/opinion/voting-should-be-mandatory.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  34. Simon Katich

    Your quote also brought to mind Kennedy’s “‘ask not what your country …..” and a Google of it turned up this comment on what he said. It would appear the original is very much one the Lib pollies need to be asked. Even though we already know the answer to the question.

    Khalil Gibran was one of JFK’s favorite authors. The quote comes from the book, The New Frontier, which says: “Are you a politician asking what your country can do for you or a zealous one asking what you can do for your country?”

  35. I’ve read the news reports of Leyonhjelm’s exchanges and am at a complete loss. WTF? Was he trying to score some bullshit political point not understanding the scope of the tragedy? Was his empathy meter switched off such that he didn’t realise bystanders who saw it all go down would be in shock? Or, in doubling down on critics, he tried to be too clever by half pretending he actually meant something deeper than a throwaway snark?

    Truly bizarre. But either way the man is a disgrace and should feel ashamed of his antics.

  38. Fess

    I’ve read the news reports of Leyonhjelm’s exchanges and am at a complete loss.

    Any rational person would feel the same. Total nob.

  40. Ides:

    Undoubtedly. But in trying to conflate cars with guns, it’s an illogical and totally irrelevant equivalency.

    It isn’t every day (or even every year) you see a vehicle drive down a crowded footpath with intent, deliberately mowing people down. But in Leyonhjelm’s Ideal Australia (AKA America), where gun control is a pipe dream, you quite literally do see people killed every day through gun violence. And even see massacres involving innocent people just going about their daily business.

    Very poor form by Leyonhjelm who is simply milking this tragedy for his own political agenda. And only hours after it happened!! 🙁

  44. Fess:

    He knows what he did. He doesnt care. He wants you to get be upset (see his subsequent tweets). Just dont bother trying to reason or understand. You’ll lose way too many brain cells.

  45. Sky News Australia
    1 min ·
    #BREAKING Victoria Police confirm a fourth person has now died following an incident in Melbourne’s CBD today.

  47. Ides:

    I’m surprised this person didn’t see fit to chip the Senator: https://twitter.com/chriskkenny

    He’s always swift to highlight inappropriate comments by Labor or Greens MPs, so I can’t imagine why Leyonhjelm escaped his notice. Perhaps next time Chris will be more on the ball….

  48. When that guy goes to jail after murdering 4, including a baby, he’s going to get 7 shades of hell beaten out of him by the other inmates, as the guards suddenly find something else to do. Just sayin’.

  49. Confessions

    Victoria Police confirm a fourth person has now died following an incident in Melbourne’s CBD today.

    “an incident” what an odd way to describe it as it is at this stage very much THE incident in “Melbourne’s CBD”.

  50. fess

    Is Leyonhjelm one of the Senators facing re-election next time, or does he have a 6 year term?

    No idea, can’t understand how he was elected in the first place.

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