Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After a bit of a blip over the past month or so, Essential Research finds Labor’s recovering its solid post-election lead.

The latest fortnightly rolling average of federal voting intention for Essential Research returns Labor’s two-party lead to 53-47, after walking a point at a time from 53-47 four weeks ago to 51-49 a fortnight ago and now back again. Both major parties are now at 37% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one and Labor up one, while One Nation comes off a point from last week’s high to 7%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady at 9% and 3%. The poll also features its monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 34% and up two on disapproval to 46%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 35% and, oddly, down five to 38%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is now at 39-28, down from 40-28, leaving for a remarkably high “don’t know” remainder. The most interesting of the survey’s remaining findings is the overwhelming support recorded for an increase in the minimum wage, with 80% approving and 11% disapproving. Another question canvases whether respondents would be “likely” to vote for a new conservative party formed around the likes of Tony Abbott, for which 23% answered in the affirmative, although polling exercises of this kind have shown themselves to be of very little value in the past.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,620 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 27 of 33
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  2. ‘It won’t, because not enough people are doing it.’

    It won’t, because household consumption is a long long way from being the problem.

  3. Nice review by urbanwronski. It ends with…

    Obeid’s sentencing is a handy means to smear Labor. No-one on ABC TV follows the dots from Obeid’s company to Arthur Sinodinos.

    Happily, Mike Baird has nobbled NSW’s ICAC before it did too much damage to the Liberals and their born to rule party and supporters. As Christmas approaches, it brings daily new evidence of a government not just out of its depth but one which is causing the economy to shrink by cutting spending and failing to invest in infrastructure while doing everything in its power to scapegoat the poor, the elderly, the unemployed.

    While its “savings” policies help cause productivity to stall, inequality to widen and women’s participation to decline and as it retreats even further into its double-speak, the Coalition’s sole priority seems to be to look after its own as if driven by some deeper sense of threat into ever more desperate acts of blatant self-preservation; its brazen, grasping, self-regarding, narcissism, the very antithesis of the spirit of Christmas.

    https://urbanwronski.com/2016/12/18/an-anti-christmas-spirit-as-turnbull-government-richly-rewards-its-own-wages-war-on-the-rest-of-us/

  4. c@tmomma @ #1262 #1262 Sunday, December 18, 2016 at 1:51 pm

    Why not have these fitted to the rooftop as well?
    http://www.treehugger.com/wind-technology/silent-wind-turbines-could-generate-half-household-energy.html

    The article says that it will produce 1500 KWH per year, and says that this is half what the average household would need.

    This works out to 4.1 KWH per day.

    The average household in Australia uses 5,817 kWh per year, or 15.9 KWH per day. Even if the turbine works as promised, it could supply only about a quarter of the average household’s energy needs. Good to have, but you’d need four of them or more.

    And since they cost around $AUD 7462 each, US$5450, you would be far, far better putting your money into rooftop PV panels.

    See: http://newatlas.com/the-archimedes-liam-f1-urban-wind-turbine/32263/

  5. Player One

    You sound like very close to No.5

    The Five Stages of Climate Change Denial

    1) Climate change isn’t happening
    2) Climate change is happening, but it’s part of the Earth’s natural cycles
    3) Climate change is happening, it may well be due to human activity, but it’s generally beneficial
    4) Climate change is happening, it’s probably due to human activity, but it’s not going to be as bad as the computer models suggest
    5) Climate change is happening, it is caused by human activity, it’s a really bad thing, but there’s very little we can do about it .

  6. phoenixRed

    As someone on twitter opined………
    Brendan Nyhan
    3h3 hours ago
    Brendan Nyhan ‏@BrendanNyhan
    Imagine if Obama started sort-of speaking like this for the U.S. while Bush was still in office, or Bush during Clinton. Not even considered

  9. Don

    You are trying to use logic.

    P1 is the PB poster you are referring to, and P1 does not do logic very well in this area. No idea why, P1 ordinarily posts eminent common sense.

    Unlike many here, I have read a lot of the IPCC reports, and understand the scenarios they model. They don’t expect a significant impact from PV solar power in any of their emission scenarios, and some of these scenarios already presuppose a rapid uptake and vastly increased use of all possible clean alternative technologies.

    Some people here continually trumpet what are in fact fairly ordinary and easily anticipated cost reductions in PV solar, and don’t seem to appreciate that PV solar is minute in its overall impact, even at high uptake rates. Much more significant gains are to be made in nuclear, bio-energy and carbon capture and storage technologies.

    The cost of PV solar is simply irrelevant. In fact, as Zoomster pointed out this morning, grid-connected PV solar can actually be counter productive, since it can mean people get complacent and use more electricity. They think they are doing the planet some good by putting excess solar PV back in the grid. They’re not. At best, all they are doing is reducing the peak load during the day. Now, if they pumped their battery-stored energy back into the grid at night, then they might be doing a truly useful service. But they do not.

  10. As Christmas approaches, it brings daily new evidence of a government not just out of its depth but one which is causing the economy to shrink by cutting spending and failing to invest in infrastructure while doing everything in its power to scapegoat the poor, the elderly, the unemployed.

    While its “savings” policies help cause productivity to stall, inequality to widen and women’s participation to decline

    This absolutely frightens me as to what our country will look like in a decade’s time because of this mob’s incompetence and ideological intransigence. Just think how badly they can stuff things with a further 2.5 years to go until we can boot them out.

  11. Briefly

    Perth was also well ahead of the curve with solar hot water heating. A huge reduction in CO2 emissions given how much electricity is used domestically for heating water.

  12. victoria Sunday, December 18, 2016 at 4:43 pm

    phoenixRed

    As someone on twitter opined………
    Brendan Nyhan
    3h3 hours ago
    Brendan Nyhan ‏@BrendanNyhan
    Imagine if Obama started sort-of speaking like this for the U.S. while Bush was still in office, or Bush during Clinton. Not even considered

    *************************************
    Sadly, Victoria there is not at least 37 brave USA souls willing to stop Trump through the Electoral College this coming Monday ………………. so its God Bless America or God Help America …. whatever …

    Hillary Clinton’s last chance to win is Monday

    Pundits have more or less decided a last-minute Clinton Electoral College victory is highly unlikely

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/12/hillary-clintons-last-chance-to-win-is-monday/

  13. poroti @ #1305 Sunday, December 18, 2016 at 4:41 pm

    Player One
    You sound like very close to No.5
    …

    5) Climate change is happening, it is caused by human activity, it’s a really bad thing, but there’s very little we can do about it .

    On the contrary, many people here have found a new form of denial:

    “Climate change is happening, it is caused by human activity, it’s a really bad thing, but magic technology XYZ is going to save us”

    For many here, the “magic technology” of choice at the moment is solar PV. Read the IPCC reports to find out how little impact solar PV is expected to actually have.

  14. 4. The cost of externalities such as mitigating or cleaning up the resultant pollution of burning coal.

    This is the “biggie” of course. The big emitters currently don’t pay anything, and I believe the Paris agreement does not obligate them to do so in future.

    This is then the biggest fallacy of your argument. Until you can include all costs you cannot make a valid comparison between different types of power generation.
    You also said that the cost of coal was almost zero. So there is no land, labour, capital or enterprise in getting the stuff. I would have thought that at the very least have been capital intensive in order to mine it unless major deposits are on the earth’s surface.
    Whether plant and equipment lasts until 2040 or 3040 there is still a cost of depreciation that needs to be taken into account in order to make a fair comparison of types of power generation.

  15. PhoenixRed

    I had no expectation that there would be 37 brave electors, but we live in such crazy times, Who knows what could happen………

  16. Poroti

    A huge reduction in CO2 emissions given how much electricity is used domestically for heating water.

    “Home” desalination plants (or home brew beer) the next challenge?

  19. briefly @ #1307 Sunday, December 18, 2016 at 4:44 pm

    PO@4.27
    Rooftop solar is the,largest single source of electricity in Perth…larger than any power station.
    As usual, you toss red herrings into the argument.

    Hmm. who is tossing red herrings? Look here – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Western_Australia

    Coal = ~2500 MW
    Gas (various types) = ~4000 MW
    Hydro = 32 MW
    Wind = ~400 MW
    Biomass = 6 MW
    Solar PV = 10 MW

    See?

  20. falconwa @ #1314 Sunday, December 18, 2016 at 4:59 pm

    This is then the biggest fallacy of your argument. Until you can include all costs you cannot make a valid comparison between different types of power generation.

    Why? The emitters don’t pay these costs, so it doesn’t make sense to include them when assessing which is the cheapest form of power for them to use.

    You also said that the cost of coal was almost zero. So there is no land, labour, capital or enterprise in getting the stuff. I would have thought that at the very least have been capital intensive in order to mine it unless major deposits are on the earth’s surface.

    Have you seen how they mine coal in India?

    Whether plant and equipment lasts until 2040 or 3040 there is still a cost of depreciation that needs to be taken into account in order to make a fair comparison of types of power generation.

    Only if you have shareholders to report to. China and India do not.

  21. Magic tech?
    Solar PV is clever…but not magic.

    The premise is that the energy system can become low- or nil-net carbon intense.

    It can be done. It’s already being done. It offers an economic future of falling energy costs as well as declining environmental costs.

    But go ahead. Argue against this. Argue in favour of the fossils.

  22. victoria Sunday, December 18, 2016 at 4:59 pm

    PhoenixRed

    I had no expectation that there would be 37 brave electors, but we live in such crazy times, Who knows what could happen………

    ******************************************

    Maybe there is hope in Michael Moore’s warnings that there is still a chance that something weird or unexpected might still happen ….

    ALSO : Michael Moore: Trump “Has No Right To Enter That House”

    Michael Moore said there must be “protesting, obstructing, disrupting, and civil disobedience” on President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration day in an interview with MSNBC’s Chris Hayes. Moore also spoke of protesting electors in the Electoral College as they meet.

    There are too many questions about whatever collusion was going on. I mean, they admitted that they were in touch with the Russians during the campaign. They have said that,” Moore claimed.

    MOORE: So we would need to know as Americans what the hell was going on there and he does not have a mandate. He does not have a mandate. And that just needs to be said over and over and over again. And the media, for God’s sake, please do your job.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/12/17/michael_moore_trump_has_no_right_to_enter_that_house.html

  27. CTar1 Sunday, December 18, 2016 at 5:17 pm

    PhoenixRED

    Michael Moore pissing in the wind.

    Trump won under their rules.

    ********************************

    Some legal eagles in the US believe that Trumps business dealings are in breach of the requirements of the Constitution and may ???? invoke impeachment ….

    Michael Moore may be wrong in the long run …. but his track record on the rise of Trump has been more predictive and accurate than nearly everyone else ….

  29. Poroti….yup, Lesmurdie falls, the Claisebrook drain…humongous

    Curtin published their claims of rooftop solar a few months ago…output is bigger than any single fixed turbine installed in WA…

  30. Michael Moore said there must be “protesting, obstructing, disrupting, and civil disobedience” on President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration day in an interview with MSNBC’s Chris Hayes. Moore also spoke of protesting electors in the Electoral College as they meet.

    This will achieve nothing except to make the protesters look like sore loser rabble rousers.

    Trump won the election even though way more voters wanted Clinton as POTUS. Protesting about this isn’t going to bring about constitutional change required to change the US electoral system.

  32. briefly @ #1321 Sunday, December 18, 2016 at 5:10 pm

    But go ahead. Argue against this. Argue in favour of the fossils.

    You are missing the point. I am not arguing in favor of fossils. I am merely pointing out that thinking you have accomplished much just by extolling solar PV is nonsense. Or wind. You are not going to get even 1/10 of the way to a solution with these technologies. Of the “clean” alternatives, nuclear and bio-energy have to do the heavy lifting. But are we investing in these? No – we’re too pleased with ourselves for our progress on solar PV.

    The full solution to global warming requires much, much more effort than simply sticking a few solar panels on your roof. And it is going to be both expensive and painful, and require significant lifestyle and behavioral changes. And the longer we leave it, the worse it is going to get.

  35. briefly @ #1324 Sunday, December 18, 2016 at 5:21 pm

    Hydro in WA?
    Would that be the power plant at Mt Eliza? Or the Raebold Hill Snowy Scheme?
    Wiki looks like it has been hacked.

    Ord river and Wellington dam. Sorry there is no list specifically for Perth. But I believe Kwinana is a coal fired Perth power station – 640MW.

    Do you think you have that much rooftop solar in Perth? That would require about 200,000 houses … or 10 times the number of households in Perth.

  36. CTar1

    At my high school there were about 6-8 masters who went to either Oxford or Cambridge. The rivalry continued even on the other side of the world. Lots of to and froing between the them . I was on the Cambridge side as where I come from the rugger bugger rep team wore Cambridge blue jerseys. 🙂 Had no knowledge of Philby et al at the time

  37. The USA is a ‘Republic’.

    Wiki says –

    A republic (from Latin: res publica) is a sovereign state or country which is organized with a form of government in which power resides in elected individuals representing the citizen body

    In other words the voters take their chances on their ‘elected representative’. Not, at the end of it, particularly democratic.

    Much the same as here except the US Republic has an extra hurdle of the ‘Electoral College’. A mechanism designed to preserve the rights of the original male land owners and now the preserve of conservative Electors regardless of their party affiliation.

  38. Why? The emitters don’t pay these costs, so it doesn’t make sense to include them when assessing which is the cheapest form of power for them to use.
    P1. Somebody pays these costs. If the emitters don’t pay then it’s consumers or taxpayers that do. When comparing costs we are looking at what it costs the community not just the costs to producers. That is why externalities have to be taken into account. You seem to have admitted that the cost of externalities is the biggie but cannot provide any figure for it. Your argument that coal is cheaper than wind or solar is at best unproven

  39. I think the previous referendum on Australia becoming a republic fell over because the monarchists were able to split the supporters and convince those favouring an elected president that they should vote no.
    I think there’s a danger of the same thing happening with Turnbull’s proposed method of a plebiscite to select the model and then a referendum to change the constitution.

    I would prefer a referendum with several questions along the lines of:
    Do you want Australia to become a republic?
    If Australia does become a republic how should the president be selected?
    Appointed by Parliament
    Elected by popular vote

    IMO, this gives monarchists less scope to play a spoiling role.

  40. ‘Obeid’s sentencing is a handy means to smear Labor. No-one on ABC TV follows the dots from Obeid’s company to Arthur Sinodinos.’

    Arthur who?

  41. victoria Sunday, December 18, 2016 at 5:36 pm

    PhoenixRed

    My hope is that Trump falls over via his own conduct…………

    ***********************************

    We have already seen ENOUGH of his own conduct ……

    ( still WE have our own nutters like Turnbull, Joyce, Dutton ,Corman …… Hanson, Roberts blah blah blah running the lunatic asylum from within …. so its tit for tat on who is the more crazier – them or us )

    Three professors of psychiatry call for ‘neuropsychiatric evaluation’ of Trump out of fears he’s mentally ill

    In a letter addressed to President Barack Obama, three professors of psychiatry — including one from Harvard Medical School — expressed fears that President-elect Donald Trump’s exhibits signs he may not be mentally fit to assume the presidency.

    His widely reported symptoms of mental instability — including grandiosity, impulsivity, hypersensitivity to slights or criticism, and an apparent inability to distinguish between fantasy and reality — lead us to question his fitness for the immense responsibilities of the office,” it continues. “We strongly recommend that, in preparation for assuming these responsibilities, he receive a full medical and neuropsychiatric evaluation by an impartial team of investigators.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/12/three-professors-of-psychiatry-call-for-neuropsychiatric-evaluation-of-trump-out-of-fears-hes-mentally-ill/

  42. Poroti

    I got a ‘tradesman’ degree from a not distinguished UK Uni.

    If I was BisbJnr who says she ‘attended’ Harvard then I can say I attended Oxford (a visit to the Bodleian Library to read some “embargo’d” deposits – they weren’t delighted to see me).

  44. CTar:

    Much the same as here except the US Republic has an extra hurdle of the ‘Electoral College’. A mechanism designed to preserve the rights of the original male land owners and now the preserve of conservative Electors regardless of their party affiliation.

    Yes, I posted a link this morning with commentary from the primaries stage of the POTUS campaign and how the EC is essentially anti-democratic. But the final paragraph gives hope that change may slowly creep across state legislatures, even though there’s no chance constitutional change will occur to reform the national electoral system.

    Voting doesn’t have to be complicated. Just look at Oregon. As Rolling Stone’s Tim Dickinson reported, Oregon has one of the best voting set-ups in the nation: everyone is automatically registered, there are no voter ID laws, you can vote by mail – no lines, no hassles. Ron Wyden has introduced a bill in the US Senate to make those rules national.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/08/america-voting-system-broken-democracy-clinton-sanders-primary

    And the link to the Oregon report:
    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/what-its-like-casting-a-ballot-in-a-state-that-takes-voting-seriously-20160517

  45. player one @ #1332 Sunday, December 18, 2016 at 5:32 pm

    briefly @ #1321 Sunday, December 18, 2016 at 5:10 pm

    But go ahead. Argue against this. Argue in favour of the fossils.

    You are missing the point. I am not arguing in favor of fossils. I am merely pointing out that thinking you have accomplished much just by extolling solar PV is nonsense. Or wind. You are not going to get even 1/10 of the way to a solution with these technologies. Of the “clean” alternatives, nuclear and bio-energy have to do the heavy lifting. But are we investing in these? No – we’re too pleased with ourselves for our progress on solar PV.
    The full solution to global warming requires much, much more effort than simply sticking a few solar panels on your roof. And it is going to be both expensive and painful, and require significant lifestyle and behavioral changes. And the longer we leave it, the worse it is going to get.

    What are you arguing PO?
    I have put solar cells on my roof, the main reasons for this was reduction on costs of power (achieved), an understanding of the costings of PV in a real-world scenario, Mine!!!! (The next house I have will be solar PV and Battery back up on an understanding of financial cost pay backs and rewards).

    Also I have gone for every power saving device I can find, Lighting is now all LED COB technology. The house is scoured for the lowest consumption products with an eye for better and lower consumption products. Old practices have changed and all items that can be turned off at the point is.

    I now shop electrical companies as they ‘dimwitted’ Australian management only seems to understand churn and when this is greater than their desired targets that they have arbitrarily set, only then questions are asked.

    This is my one finger to salute to the main political parties. I am not waiting for them I am off and to hell with any political party that starts with “L”

    Our household of 3 adults’ registers electricity use less than a single person household in our area.

    The house has been made more efficient with every room redone with improved insulation and newest products available.

    Without discussion of groups like this and clues to look it is bloody hard.
    So are you arguing that it is the individual who is going to make a change for global warming by coming off grid? That ain’t going to happen. Is the individual the one to make change, well give them the information they need!

    Esoteric argument on this subject doesn’t help. Plain simple advice is required. Sometimes the arguments here are so circular that pi can be defined to the 10 to the power 150 decimal places.

  46. The Australian ‏@australian · 43m43 minutes ago

    Pauline Hanson unveils 36 One Nation candidates for Queensland election: ‘We’re coming after you and your jobs’. http://bit.ly/2i27sIx pic.twitter.com/RDQwLQOiMl

    And some of them are practising their aggressive frowns.

  49. The use of fossil fuels to produce electricity without pricing in the economic costs of environmental destruction is a glaring example of market failure. Virtually none of these costs will be borne by those who create them.

  50. I think the previous referendum on Australia becoming a republic fell over because the monarchists were able to split the supporters and convince those favouring an elected president that they should vote no.

    Yes, they muddied the waters on what a Republic would look like, instead of focusing on the central question of whether Australia wanted to become one.

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