Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After a bit of a blip over the past month or so, Essential Research finds Labor’s recovering its solid post-election lead.

The latest fortnightly rolling average of federal voting intention for Essential Research returns Labor’s two-party lead to 53-47, after walking a point at a time from 53-47 four weeks ago to 51-49 a fortnight ago and now back again. Both major parties are now at 37% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one and Labor up one, while One Nation comes off a point from last week’s high to 7%, with the Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady at 9% and 3%. The poll also features its monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 34% and up two on disapproval to 46%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 35% and, oddly, down five to 38%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is now at 39-28, down from 40-28, leaving for a remarkably high “don’t know” remainder. The most interesting of the survey’s remaining findings is the overwhelming support recorded for an increase in the minimum wage, with 80% approving and 11% disapproving. Another question canvases whether respondents would be “likely” to vote for a new conservative party formed around the likes of Tony Abbott, for which 23% answered in the affirmative, although polling exercises of this kind have shown themselves to be of very little value in the past.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,620 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Interesting message by Michael Moore on his facebook page

    News Feed

    Michael Moore
    17 hrs ·
    Hey @realDonaldTrump — are you worried? I mean, you’re not president yet. Not until 12 noon, January 20, 2017. That’s FIVE long weeks. This must be driving you crazy! In “The Art of the Deal” you wrote about the importance of closing the deal quick. Give it too much time, people find a way to pull out, making you the loser. January 20th is a long way away! And there are millions of people right now who are saying prayers, asking Santa, making wishes, and putting their heads together to find a way to stop this madness. I think you should be worried. I think you are! Why? ‘Cause you’re not president yet! I mean, what on earth could possibly be the problem, Comrade Trump?
    36k Likes1.9k Comments5.1k Shares

  2. Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham · 13m13 minutes ago

    Getting rid of the $100 note will have zero impact on family trusts, Singapore marketing hubs, accelerated depreciation, or negative gearing

  3. Like I said yesterday – logic tells us – if most big business don’t pay any tax now, giving them a tax cut is a mirage and CANNOT possibly do anything to stimulate Jobsan Growthe

  4. And yeah, the alternative to cash is not cheque.

    Get ETF. Or Bitcoin. This is the 21st century, we have hoverboards. We should not be using any form of currency that can be lost behind a couch.

  5. @ Lizzie – you honestly are telling me that you trust all Australians, when faced with a choice of giving money to themselves, or the government, will choose to give it to the government? When there is literally no chance of them being discovered.

    Don’t be so naive.

  6. Received a fake Telstra account this morning.
    Whoever is doing this must be conning somebody. An obvously fake email address gives it away and addressed to “Dear Customer” instead of “KayJay”. 👿

  7. jenauthor
    Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 10:26 am
    A MUST read!

    The gist of MB’s argument is the media in general and Paul Kelly/ News Corp in particular are responsible for the rise of the crackpot right. Doubtless, they have played a part. It seems to me, however, that MB’s complaint is inadequate. The crackpot right are ascendant in many domains where Kelly and News Corp are never heard or read.

    I think it is far more useful to see these developments as both reaction to and resistance against change itself. The rightist reactions are (certainly futile and misguided) attempts by individuals and communities to both resist change and assert control over their material and social circumstances.

    The underlying pressure is always to understand the changes with which we are surrounded and to which we are bound. We are accustomed these days to thinking that we can control our environment (thought of most generally). This is really very exceptional. Throughout most of our history, the environment – nature – has controlled human destiny. We are re-discovering the limitations of our powers. We are not in control of nature and never have been. For sure, this is related to the rebellion against the values of the Enlightenment – the dismissal of science, order and reason itself – in many places. After all, if science cannot deliver control of nature generally or our (natural) circumstances more specifically, then what use is science? We might as well substitute prejudice or guesswork for learning and polemics for analysis.

    The rightist reactions should be seen for what they really are – as responses that express vulnerability, as escapist retreat from the existential dilemma. They mistake anger for courage and will absolutely fail.

  8. I feel an election coming on –

    Athen, Greece – After 16 months of implementing austerity measures he had once railed against, Alexis Tsipras, Greek prime minister, has returned to his old, anti-austerity campaign rhetoric.

    Speaking from the southeastern Aegean island of Nisyros on Tuesday, he called the technocrats overseeing Greece’s fiscal adjustment programme “silly” for failing to agree on the level of austerity Greece needs to implement.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/greece-pm-tsipras-anti-austerity-rhetoric-161213204557541.html

  9. Ross Gittins says what so many are thinking – If ever there was proof that modern-day politicians are more followers than leaders, Malcolm Turnbull must be it.

    Which reminds me of one of Jim Hacker’s famous quotes in Yes Minister:

    “I am their leader. I must follow them”

  10. Headline in the MB article;

    ‘Paul Kelly moans as the centre he abondoned collapses’

    These damn illiterate school students causing a crisis in education, that money cannot solve.

  11. lizzie @ #53 Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 10:39 am

    Ben Eltham ‏@beneltham · 13m13 minutes ago
    Getting rid of the $100 note will have zero impact on family trusts, Singapore marketing hubs, accelerated depreciation, or negative gearing

    Agreed – but it will have a big impact on money laundering and other criminal enterprises, as well as significant tax avoidance.

  12. Re. getting rid of $100 banknotes…

    You can fit $5 million in $100 bills in one of those cheap 50 litre nylon tubs if you pack them tight enough. For $5 million in $50 notes, you’d need two tubs.

    For someone with $5 million in cash to hide, I wouldn’t have thought storage space,or the cost of it, would be a problem.

  13. Along with much of her management, it’s evident she doesn’t “get” Radio National, where the mission is for more light and fluffy “flow” programming, while resources for documentaries, features and specialist broadcasts are diluted. At this rate what was once a bright shining jewel in an ocean of mediocrity will look and sound more and more like the mainstream sludge available on much of the ABC’s metropolitan radio stations, not to mention the drivel on the commercials.

    Never mind the quality, feel the width. It’s not hard to sense that quite early in her reign Guthrie is on a slippery slope. Heartwarming support from Emma Alberici and Patricia Karvelas doesn’t amount to a hill of beans if a sizeable proportion of staff are offside. We’ve seen it before with the Jonathan Shier experiment.

    There are dark mutterings that ultimately, and quite soon, the RN network will transmogrify into a bunch of podcasts available online and on mobile devices. A website that ate a radio station.

    Richard Ackland
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/14/michelle-guthrie-the-abc-and-the-turning-of-a-once-shining-jewel-into-mainstream-sludge?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  14. Briefly, while I agree there are many factors at play, the media’s act of ‘normalising’ extremism has had a ripple effect throughout society.

    We can argue chicken or egg, but the mainstream media’s compliance with the direction of those like Murdoch, and failure to question (seriously) any antiquated RW policy direction, at the same time as giving credence to wowser statements that any serious thinker would dismiss as poppycock, has warped the general public’s viewpoint as to where the centre is and what is sane and productive.

    Media itself has become a trend follower rather than an examiner. The wholesale pandering to political ‘rockstars’ when the evidence does not back up that status is doing us all a great disservice.

    Thus we get things like “RGR” as a thing. And the arguments ceases to be about policy and becomes about personality. And media merely unquestioningly documents the superficial without delving into the public good aspects of whatever is said. If anybody bemoans this, the political perpetrators come back with cries of censorship (while they are in fact censoring half the argument).

    The stenographers, instead argue the public doesn’t understand the context, when the context is that the job they have been doing for the past 10 years has been sloppy, superficial and, dare I say it, biased?

    The bias might be unintentional, in that they have slowly been pushed further to the right over time, so their perspective is no longer objective, or adheres to the truth, but the bias is there. The pendulum has swung and unfortunately, something resembling feudalism is the likely result (if we aren’t already there — it is imminent with the likes of Trump/Hanson/Abbott and Malcom).

  15. Union thugs at work.

    John Setka
    ‏@CFMEUJohnSetka
    John Setka Retweeted Les Twentyman OAM

    .@lestwentyman20
    @CFMEU management committee has just met & would like to donate $10,000 to go towards your text books & presents lost. JS

  16. ‘I judge ABC news not so much by what it says, but by what it omits. And it omits plenty.’

    Exactly. Certain subjects and positions are generally off limits, and most of us know what they are.

  17. Sally Newell ‏@ActOnClimate · 10m10 minutes ago

    Sally Newell Retweeted Climate Guardians

    The manufacturing of doubt through spurious “balance” has cost the earth 25 critical years on #climateaction. #ExxonKnew
    Report science!

  18. IN WA the private contractor Serco has lost the government contract providing court security and transport services to Corrective Services.
    The new Contractor, Broadspectrum formerly Transfield has had a win the FWA wirh an EBA that the union and workers did not vote on. It cuts the pay for workers in regional areas by between $40-50,000 a year through a 30% cut in the hourly rate, no regional allowances or other allowances. All the Serco staff will lose their long service leave and sick leave accrual. For many this is the 3rd or 4th time this loss has happened, and the Liberal Govt is well aware of the problem but has done nothing to protect the workers who are doing work for the community of behalf of government.
    The Contract is claimed to be saving $35 million over 5 years. But what the government is not telling the people is that the new Contractor will not be providing services to the Perth Childrens Court or transporting juvenile offenders. That cost will be met by Corrective Services.
    Another day under a Liberal Govt. Another day of workers conditions being trashed

    Is this for real? How can this be happening in Australia?

  19. voice endeavour @ #56 Wednesday, December 14, 2016 at 10:49 am

    @ Lizzie – and of course, you have evidence that every single cent he makes gets appropriately declared as business revenue.

    I don’t think it is single operator businesses that are the biggest targets. Going after them is like going after Centrelink cheats – the money raised from genuine crooks is relatively small but it looks like the Government is doing something (and, in the case of welfare cheats, provides a large dose of revenge to the rest of us who think they are the problem because that’s what the real crooks want us to be diverted to).

  20. ‘It’s happening’: Maddow previews ‘explosive’ Newsweek story that hints at Turkey’s blackmail of Trump

    n a preview of a Newsweek article due to be released Tuesday morning, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow explained that reporter Kurt Eichenwald has uncovered evidence that President-elect Donald Trump may have already been compromised by a foreign leader holding the power to threaten his overseas holdings to gain a political advantage.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/12/its-happening-maddow-previews-explosive-newsweek-story-that-hints-at-turkeys-blackmail-of-trump/

  21. By all means take $100 notes out of circulation ..but also take family trusts ..tax havens ..salary sacrificing ..negative gearing ..multi-national tax evasion taxpayer subsidies for fossil fuel companies ..and middle class welfare out of circulation as well..

    PS: I thought the GST was supposed to deal with the the “black economy” ..of course, it just made it worse, but..

  22. Bombshell Report Exposes How Trump’s Vast Holdings Are Already ‘Jeopardizing U.S. Interests’ Around the World

    Trump is using his president-elect status to cozy up to dictators and benefit the family’s business.

    Donald Trump hasn’t been sworn in yet, but he is already making decisions and issuing statements to world leaders that radically depart from American foreign policy, all to the benefit of his family’s corporate empire. Because of this, the next president of the United States is already vulnerable to undue influence by other nations, including through bribery and even blackmail.

    http://europe.newsweek.com/donald-trump-foreign-business-deals-jeopardize-us-531140?rm=eu

  23. It was only a small but illustrative example of the appalling imbalance of ABC reporting, but I was struck by the radio coverage of a recent Italian vote to reject austerity. The report covered it as though the Italian people were foolish and impertinent to even consider not just copping the hiding their betters had decided was for their own good. Not even stated as “someone says” but baldly stated as if it was self evident.

    And who to interview to support this position? Why some foreign exchange trader. Of course. Who else? It was a wretched exercise is pandering to a discredited neo liberal economics that the poor dumb log from the ABC is too stupid to realise was even happening, so institutionalized they’ve become.

  24. Removing $100 notes, in itself, might have merits and wouldn’t affect me personally.

    I do worry it is the beginning of a deliberate push to remove cash as a viable payment system altogether. Maybe it’s just a harbinger of the (seemingly) inevitable, but it may also be a specific goal of various policy makers for 2 general reasons that I would be unhappy about – (1) everything gets tracked – the big data future where I have no privacy gets a major step forward, and (2) negative interest rates can then be implemented in practice.

    On a practical level I use cash as a budgeting mechanism – I have a very tight budget to work with and I keep within this budget by having a fixed amount I withdraw in cash every month (big periodic expenditure like rates, strata levy, electricity are paid electronically, but accounted for in my yearly budgeting, and I manage the few other credit card transactions through setting aside an equivalent amount of cash from my budgeted amount), which gives a very concrete indication to me of how much I am spending on day-to-day stuff, and how much ‘room’ I have for additional expenditure. Of course I can move to some electronic account/record keeping mechanism to keep track of these things, but there is a big psychological difference between physical things and abstract representations (even if cash money is, itself, an abstract representation, you know what I mean).

    And if they’re getting rid of $100 notes can they at least get rid of 5c pieces at the same time, I mean seriously…

  25. we have hoverboards

    Most misleading product name ever. They should have been called rollerboards, or something. And also “self-motive unexpected firewood”.

  26. Cash payments are becoming more common. It is rampant in some sectors and not just for little jobs and not just for tradies. I often hear the excuse – ‘if the big companies dont pay tax, why should I’. And I have some sympathy for this.

    Scrapping $100 bills will not stop this. It may make it easier for the ATO to trace in the short term, but people will find ways around it (ways that already exist but not yet utilised).

  27. Won’t everyone just wash their hundred dollar bills through pokies, legitimate business etc etc before the deadline? How is this going to catch any crooks?

  28. Ratsak, time was that ABC foreign correspondents were relatively immune from the prevailing ideology, but not any more.
    Zoe Daniel was a shocker leading to the American ‘election’.

  29. How Russia Wins an Election

    The Kremlin ran a sophisticated, multilayered operation that aimed to sow chaos in the U.S. political system, if not to elect Trump outright.

    So how did Putin do it?

    It wasn’t by hacking election machines or manipulating the results, as some have suggested. That would be too crude.

    The Kremlin’s canny operatives didn’t change votes; they won them, influencing voters to choose Russia’s preferred outcome by pushing stolen information at just the right time—through slanted, or outright false stories on social media.

    The Kremlin’s troll army swarmed the web to spread disinformation and undermine trust in the electoral system.

    Having shattered many Americans’ faith in their democracy, Russia now feels emboldened. And with major elections coming up in France, Germany and the Netherlands, you can bet that Putin’s work is not done.

    Here’s how he does it: **************** READ ON

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/how-russia-wins-an-election-214524

  30. Jackol
    “And if they’re getting rid of $100 notes can they at least get rid of 5c pieces at the same time, I mean seriously…”

    Agreed. 5c pieces are a nuisance. Sick of all this shrapnel sloshing around in my wallet. In that same vein, I’d also prefer a $2 note to a coin.
    While I’m in full gripe mode, can we get rid of Her Maj’s mug on the $5 note? I’m sure she’s a lovely lady, but I’m sick of the sight of her.

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