Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten both lose ground on the question of best person to lead their party, as voting intention remains largely unchanged.

Essential Research records incremental movement away from the Coalition on its fortnightly rolling average, on which the Coalition and Labor are now both on 37% on the primary vote with the former down one on last week, although two-party preferred is unchanged at 53-47. The Greens are up a point to 11%, One Nation is steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. Other findings:

• Contra a recent result from Morgan, Malcolm Turnbull retains the narrowest of leads over Julie Bishop as preferred Liberal leader, with Turnbull down nine since immediately after the election to 21%, Bishop up four to 20% and Tony Abbott up two to 11%. The same question for Labor finds Bill Shorten’s election campaign spike disappearing – he’s down ten to 17%, with Tanya Plibersek up two to 14% and Anthony Albanese up one to 12%.

• Forty-four per cent would sooner see the words “humiliate or intimidate” than “offend or insult” in section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, but only 17% think Australia’s racial discrimination laws too strict, against 26% for too weak and 40% for about right.

• There is strong support for a range of campaign finance reforms, including immediate disclosure, $5000 donations caps, and bans on foreign donations and donations by companies and unions. However, most oppose banning donations and having only public funding for party spending.

• Thirty-three per cent said they took more interest in the American election than the Australian, compared with 22% for vice-versa and 38% for the same amount.

• Sixty-three per cent say institutions involved in child sex abuse claims should pay compensation, 14% say the government should do so, and 7% say neither.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Sorry for my last post, it wasn’t actually me it was my friends 11mth old son. I can understand how he managed the keyboard but not how he managed to post his comment.

  2. kezza2
    #3272 Sunday, November 20, 2016 at 7:53 pm
    I’m 77 not out.
    My memories are hazy because of broken family. Mother suicide when I was eight. My father (not a nice man) off to Newcastle with tuberculosis where he met and married a fellow sufferer without mentioning 4 children.
    What you are describing is a lot like the modern? fairy bread, which I suppose children still go for.
    I get associations from way back relating to almost everything.
    Mostly I keep it to myself. Almost everybody that might be interested has already gone to heaven.
    What do we do? We carry on, that’s what we do.
    We kids from way back used to call Roy Rene – Moey McCackie. We didn’t know that he was really Harry van der Sluys using a stage name.
    Nearly time for supper and maybe TV.
    Goodnight all. 🙂

  3. So I wonder if Newspoll will respond positively to Malcolm’s newly-minted Churchillian phase, with extra lashings of Bill Shorten blaming?

  4. Steve777

    His outlets played a big role in whipping up moral panic about the “Carbon Tax” over a sustained period of two and a half years, for example,

    Lack of discipline by Gillard

    and convincing many that the Home Insulation program was a major disaster.

    Lack of discipline by Rudd

  5. Another point I’d like to make before I forget it, is how much latitude Barnaby Joyce is given by the media.

    He comes out on Friday and says, basically, the MDB Plan is dead, buried and cremated and SA, you can go whistle for water, MY farmers need it more for their irrigation, and anyway the water is theirs, not yours, because it originates in the Eastern States.

    So, he blows up the MDB and what do the Insiders do!?! “Guffaw” says Katherine Murphy and everyone else on the couch lols along!!!

    Barnaby Joyce is the Deputy Prime Minister! He is freelancing on policy and the Prime Minister barely goes ‘peep’, except to say wtte, ‘Well that’s not quite exactly the policy’. Limp lettuce leaves have caused more damage.

    I suppose the eternally relentless perception applies yet again…Coalition politicians, and especially the pet ones, are allowed to get away with bloody blue murder. Labor politicians aren’t even allowed to get away with the equivalent of swearing in Church on a Sunday.

  6. Malpoll, the new polling company run by some unknown company possibly based in the Cayman Islands has Turnbull ahead by 10 points

  7. EG Theodore @8:39PM: both of your points are valid, but if Australia’s biggest selling tabloids had simply reported what happened, with an editorial or two and clearly identified comment, Carbon Pricing might have become part of the landscape, like the GST; and problems with the Home Insulation Program would have been forgotton, like the wall that collapsed on passers by in moderate but hardly strong winds. But the wall was built by Coalition mates.

  8. This is the final sitting session of parliament for the year. If Newspoll comes back with another shocker for Turnbull will he be replaced as leader?

  9. Steve777

    Tabloids will do what they will do; mostly they want to get people riled up.

    Getting people riled up has an inherent rightward bias but they’re really just after the money. It would seem that a lot of the providers of fake news re Trump are based in a small town in Macedonia, in fact about 150 of them. They have no interest in the election or anything else, they simply want to be paid by FaceBook for drawing clicks to their sites. So they produce a certain type of fake news which serves their purely mercenary purpose.

    Given that tabloids’ behaviour is entirely predictable one would think that there is an advantage to be had.

  10. Malbull poll reports that Mal was much more smarterer than Trump by not revealing the actual amount paid in his out of court settlement in the HIH scam

  11. Confessions

    It is a delicious thought to think of what would happen amongst the Coalition maaates if there was a further 1% uptick in Labor’s TPP 🙂

  12. Sorry for my last post, it wasn’t actually me it was my friends 11mth old son. I can understand how he managed the keyboard but not how he managed to post his comment.

    Actually, I thought it was pretty profound… and from one so young!

  13. I wish to thank all PBers who offeredme advice, support, and thoughts on how to handle this Trump Monster.

    There were a variety of views expressed and they will assist me, insignificant as I am in the overall scheme of things, in coming to grips, personally and psychologically, with all the hate, anger, and racism which appears to be on the increase in Australia, too.

    Pope Francis was wonderful in his comments in recent days. They will rock the Vatican boat a little, but good on him for having the guts to say what he did.
    I hope he is not bumped off by the conservative forces at the Vatican as a result of his great courage in speaking out – as Pope Paul 1st was.

  14. Feeney,
    A lot of people are having trouble working out how to react to the Trump Presidency.

    Personally, I will respond by endeavouring to avoid purchasing products and services from the USA and in particular Trump supporting corporations such as Uber. If you care to join me you might find the following line useful…
    spreadsheet of Trump supporting corporations

  15. My local pub has had a burger on the menu for the last couple of weeks called the “F*** Donald Trump” with guacamole, salsa, corn, beans, avacado, chilli and so forth. Haven’t tried it yet.

    Maybe the “F” stands for “frig”.

  16. Very disappointed that Amazon is on that list Martha. I am an avid reader and download at least 3 books for my Kindle each week.

  17. Steve777,
    C@t – I see that you’re an optimist.

    There’s no other way to be! Eventually people realise the error of their ways. It may not happen overnight, but it will happen. : )

  18. Paapstef

    in particular Trump supporting corporations such as Uber

    I may have got that wrong and retract it until I can find a credible reference (all I have atm is a Breitbart news link about an Olbermann video). I must make a mental note not to post after a few glasses of red.

  19. That Vic Galaxy is surprising. CFA dispute dragging on, rising crime rate, Hazelwood, branch stacking, Steve Herbert and his dogs, upper house in disarray, V’Line track closures, and Matthew Guy probably exceeding expectations as opposition leader.

    But the polls are just not budging.

  20. Steve777,
    But at present the Dark Side is winning.

    Which is exactly NOT the time to give up fighting it!

    Haven’t you seen Star Wars!?! : )

    I am C@t Fencewalker!

  21. Taylormade,
    Because the Coalition are worse! Matthew Guy may be making a decent fist of Opposition Leader but as Planning Minister it was all about making things easier for the Liberal Mates to make money. Not to mention the disastrous freeway the Coalition wanted to tear up whole suburbs to put through for their voters’ from the East driving convenience.

    Do you think people can forget that overnight?

  22. To finish, a pessimistic quote: “the best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago”
    with an optimistic kicker “but the second best time is now”.

    Goid night all.

  23. The people of Victoria can see that this government is “doing” not just talking, as opposed to the previous government, and that trumps (if you’ll pardon the expression) the other issues which come an go along the way.

  24. The fact that Labor’s at 52-48 in Victoria – of all States – is a very, very bad sign. To put some context on it, that’s a 2.5% swing TOWARD the Coalition.

  25. I’m calling Newspoll as 54 – 46 two PP to Labor.
    Any other result more favourable to the NLP and it would have been out by now.

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