Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten both lose ground on the question of best person to lead their party, as voting intention remains largely unchanged.

Essential Research records incremental movement away from the Coalition on its fortnightly rolling average, on which the Coalition and Labor are now both on 37% on the primary vote with the former down one on last week, although two-party preferred is unchanged at 53-47. The Greens are up a point to 11%, One Nation is steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. Other findings:

• Contra a recent result from Morgan, Malcolm Turnbull retains the narrowest of leads over Julie Bishop as preferred Liberal leader, with Turnbull down nine since immediately after the election to 21%, Bishop up four to 20% and Tony Abbott up two to 11%. The same question for Labor finds Bill Shorten’s election campaign spike disappearing – he’s down ten to 17%, with Tanya Plibersek up two to 14% and Anthony Albanese up one to 12%.

• Forty-four per cent would sooner see the words “humiliate or intimidate” than “offend or insult” in section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, but only 17% think Australia’s racial discrimination laws too strict, against 26% for too weak and 40% for about right.

• There is strong support for a range of campaign finance reforms, including immediate disclosure, $5000 donations caps, and bans on foreign donations and donations by companies and unions. However, most oppose banning donations and having only public funding for party spending.

• Thirty-three per cent said they took more interest in the American election than the Australian, compared with 22% for vice-versa and 38% for the same amount.

• Sixty-three per cent say institutions involved in child sex abuse claims should pay compensation, 14% say the government should do so, and 7% say neither.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Rex
    “It’s coming up to the killing season….. perhaps the Kitching matter is the last straw for some….?”

    And of course, by “some” you actually mean “me, and no one else”.

  2. The ABC branch of the media elite that parrot Turnbull and Co’s every announcement as rolled gold brilliance still get criticised by his Magnificance, while other branches of the same elite remain unscathed.

    You’d think that they’d learn that no matter how craven, how subservient, how blatant is their adherence to Lib spin, it will never, ever be enough.

  5. Do you think that Malcolm can get a refund of the $2m he paid to be elected when his party uncharitably dumps him in the not too distant future?

  6. MF
    “Rex, FFS! Even you can’t be stupid enough to be calling for a change of leader at the moment.”

    Rex really REALLY doesn’t like Bill. I don’t know what Shorten did to deserve his ire. Run over his cat?

    Rex Is Gonna Kill Bill.

  8. The Prime Minister’s change of language in relation to the ABC is another example of how his message has changed since he took on the leadership.

    Then it was all about innovation, agility, disruption and excitement; now it is all about the economy and creating jobs. Jobs and growth, if you will.

    More than one MP has pointed out to the Prime Minister that innovation and disruption was all very good for people well placed to handle change.

    It was not, as the now former member for Herbert, Ewen Jones, said shortly after the election, so good for the people who found themselves displaced by change and with no immediate job to go to.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/malcolm-turnbulls-change-of-tune-strains-abc-friendship-20161115-gspht4.html

  12. Is the Federal govt really so incompetent, or plain nasty?

    The tension behind the handling of the funding agreement was apparent at the South Morang event. The Premier and his major projects minister, Jacinta Allan, did not comment in detail on the road and freight projects funded.

    “There are a few details to work through,” Mr Andrews said.

    In Richmond, the Prime Minister – having decided to approve the funding without telling Victoria – more readily went into detail.

    He said the federal funding for a range of road projects included $1 billion to upgrade the Monash Freeway, further expansion of the M80 ring road, and $690 million for rural and regional roads. These had been negotiated extensively with the state.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-blindsided-by-15b-roads-package-agreement-with-turnbull-government-20161114-gspdg2.html

  16. Apropos of nothing in particular, for those Sydneysiders who missed out on last night’s ‘Supermoon’ owning to cloudy skies, there’s a total eclipse of the Sun due on July 22, 2028. The centre line of the path of totality passes within a few km of the CBD: http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEgoogle/SEgoogle2001/SE2028Jul22Tgoogle.html

    I’d be in my late 70s, so hopefully still here to enjoy it. Of course Sydney doesn’t have a great record with astronomical phenonema. Along with a washed out Test Match in January, we missed a partial solar eclipse. However, if Sydney’s fickle coastal weather looks like intervening in 2028, there’s plenty of inland places near the path, including Bourke, Dubbo and Mudgee in NSW. The rest of the path over Australia is over remote outback but mostly reachable.

  22. Everyone is entitled to be dilusional. But nobody should be surprised when dilusion is called out. It is one thing not to like Bill Shorten, or even to suggest ways which he could improve. But any talk of his leadership being under even the slightest question is nothing short of pure fantasy.

  23. steve777 @ #116 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 5:35 pm

    Apropos of nothing in particular, for those Sydneysiders who missed out on last night’s ‘Supermoon’ owning to cloudy skies, there’s a total eclipse of the Sun due on July 22, 2028. The centre line of the path of totality passes within a few km of the CBD: http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEgoogle/SEgoogle2001/SE2028Jul22Tgoogle.html
    I’d be in my late 70s, so hopefully still here to enjoy it. Of course Sydney doesn’t have a great record with astronomical phenonema. Along with a washed out Test Match in January, we missed a partial solar eclipse. However, if Sydney’s fickle coastal weather looks like intervening in 2028, there’s plenty of inland places near the path, including Bourke, Dubbo and Mudgee in NSW. The rest of the path over Australia is over remote outback but mostly reachable.

    Thanks for that! I will be keeping a sharp lookout. The particular eclipse will occur just a month after my 89th birthday.
    Although I will probably still be celebrating with my coterie of fellow pagans, we will possibly calm down for a viewing (safely) of this celestial event.
    Cries of ” the evil is upon us” and “to the hill men” and “what about the women” will be heard as we pray for light and enlightenment to the sainted Lord Malcolm the Downtrodden of Wentworth.:roll:

  25. The latest Essential basically reveals that the Australian electorate realise they were totally conned at the last election by the “new Mal” shtick and are NOT happy. What a total waste of the nation’s time and energy this govt is. Should have been dismissed at the last election. But now they’re just going to hang around like a bad smell for a couple of years, because they can, and then get totally smashed.

  26. I don’t think that Bill Shorten has anything to fear this ‘killing Season’. Malcom on the other hand…

    Maybe it’s a case of “Beware the Kalends of December”.

  31. MTBW – Isn’t Rex entitled to have an opinion?

    This from the person that was telling someone else to stop repeating their opinion on here a little while back because it was getting boring.

  32. Not wanting to channel Rex, there is an article up on news.com.au with the quote in the headline:
    “Shorten weaker than Rudd or Gillard”
    The click bait worked, on clicking through and reading the article, the source is non other than that keen labor scholar, second only to Pyne in the coalition, P Dutton (Senior Sargent retired).

  33. Last from me on the eclipse.

    It’s a particularly long one, nearly 5 minutes where it crosses the Stuart about 120km South of Tennant Creek around 12:50PM 22/7/2028 and nearly 4 minutes over Sydney at 3:59PM.

  37. TPOF, you’re forgetting the first rule of politics in the Age of Murdoch:

    Right-wingers are allowed to have opinions on anything, especially subjects they know nothing about. Left-wingers are graciously allowed to have opinions too, but never on the deficiencies of the Right – that’s censorship!

    As a corollary to that, the second rule of politics in the Age of Murdoch:

    Left-wingers should be neither seen nor heard, except as strawmen for Murdoch’s lackeys to tear down.

  38. The character of Rex was there for all to see in the months leading up to the last election.

    He disappeared from this blog as Malcolm’s impregnable poll numbers evaporated before his ignorant eyes.

    When the going gets tough…

  40. Speaking about murdering cats. I swear Craig Thomson must have strangled Oakeshott Country’s pussy!

    The only time we hear from OC for an age and he swings by to poke Craig Thomson in the eye for earning a crust helping migrants!

    Everyone else in Australia can earn a crust doing it apparently, but not Craig.

    Hasn’t he been vilified enough already for one lifetime!?!

  41. No political leader has a mortgage over a leadership position – Shorten included. However, there are some individuals who are plain contrarians. There is always someone in 100 people who bag a leader so that they can just be the 1/100 to have the glory of “I told you so” at some future point in time. Bit like a mother saying to her daughter after 20 years of marriage, and the marriage falters, ‘I told you that bastard was no good for you!’

  42. I don’t know if anyone else has noticed this, but listening to a BBC program last night on reactions to Trump’s election, some of his supporters are now projecting their own violent attitudes/actions on who they perceive to be on their left. One guy came out with that the “left are hypocrites in that they preach togetherness and acceptance but now are fomenting violence against Donald”. That Trump himself was fomenting such violence before the election and in the anticipation that he would lose, is totally lost on these friends of Donald in the US

  43. That Trump himself was fomenting such violence before the election and in the anticipation that he would lose, is totally lost on these friends of Donald in the US

    You lose the point because it’s predicated upon expecting logical consistency from people who supported Donald Trump.

  48. Why doesn’t Frydenberg have a quiet word in Baird’s ear and explain that clearing native vegetation is counter-productive in the fight against global warming?
    Or perhaps Baird is trying to blackmail the Feds into bribing him not to do it?

  49. Now Baird is dicking around with the ICAC. He really wants to lose the next election. In fact, he seems desperate to lose it.

  50. In TrumpLandia:

    The Sydney Morning Herald
    9 mins ·
    A nonprofit group director and a mayor in a small town in West Virginia have been swept up in a firestorm surrounding comments made about Michelle Obama which have been perceived as blatantly racist.

    Apparently she’s an ape in heels. Tosser.

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