United States elections live

Live coverage of the count for the US presidential election, and the rest.

12.52pm ET. Clinton grimly hanging on in New Hampshire on the NYT projection, with Trump having a slight edge on the vote. It also has also all but called it for him in Pennsylvania.

12.20pm ET. A tightening has been evident in Pennsylvania and Michigan, but the big shock of Wisconsin looks all but sure to win it for Trump. However, Clinton looks no less sure of winning the popular vote, by a margin currently projected at a bit over 1%.

11.54pm ET. The NYT at least has Clinton back ahead in Minnesota now.

11.46pm ET. A point of interest for Australians: Maine is holding a ballot initiative for “ranked choice voting”, what we would call preferential voting. Yes leads narrowly on 52.8%.

11.40pm ET. Also a big night for people who were pushing Brexit parallels. Decaying industrial areas have performed the same role as their English counterparts in Sunderland.

11.33pm ET. NYT now has Minnesota slipping over the line to Trump, holding steady in Pennsylvania and Michigan, home and hosed in Wisconsin.

11.27pm ET. If Clinton does win Michigan and Pennsylvania, it starts to come down to Maine CD-2 and Nebraska CD-2, and FiveThirtyEight has Trump the favourite in both.

11.26pm ET. Dan Rosenheck of The Economist: “I think HRC still has a prayer in MI and PA, though the Upshot is very bearish. But WI, which polls had as safer, looks like her Waterloo.”

11.12pm ET. NYT effectively calling the election for Trump; the always more cautious FiveThirtyEight has him at 61%. Former says Trump is a 72% chance in Michigan and 63% in Pennsylvania, but I gather the ladder is essentially treating any “too close to call” state as 50-50, where NYT is mostly projecting Trump as favourite.

11.01pm ET. So anyway, the big shock is that the industrial rust belt states have responded heavily to Donald Trump. It makes perfect sense when you say it like that, but the polls missed it. Whatever the final result, losers of the night include polls and forecasters, with a qualified exception for Nate Silver, whose cautious projection has been vindicated (and left Wired and Huffington Post looking silly).

10.58pm ET. Some rare PB brickbats for the ABC. Out driving just now, I have five ABC stations on offer, and not a hint of election news from any of them. Had to listen to commercial talk radio. And ABC News 24 has underused Antony Green and been taking upwards of half an hour to notice what’s going on.

10.26pm ET. You can probably read the NYT projection as well as I can, but it says there’s nothing at all in it in Pennsylvania, and Trump can get there anyway with Michigan and Wisconsin, both of which are looking good for him. FiveThirtyEight now has Trump at a 55% probability. The Senate will stay Republican: they are all but sure to hold Missouri, home and hosed in New Hampshire, Indiana and North Carolina.

10.16pm ET. Trump keeps moving to victory on the NYT projection amid an unexpectedly strong performance in the rust belt, now being credited with narrow leads in Wisconsin as well as Michigan. FiveThirtyEight still has Clinton at 60%, but I gather that’s based on an arbitrary 50-50 probability split in Michigan.

9.56pm ET. The latest update from Michigan has nudged the count from 21% to 23%, and increased Trump’s projected lead at NYT from 1.1% to 1.2%.

9.48pm ET. Looks like everything hinges on Michigan. New York Times projects a 55% Republican win probability.

9.41pm ET. The New York Times projection is increasingly tipping to Trump, and now has him leading in Michigan, with Clinton grimly hanging on in Pennsylvania. Its Electoral College projection is Trump 275, Clinton 263.

9.37pm ET. Richard Burr (R) home in North Carolina; Kelly Ayotte (R) with her nose in front in New Hampshire; too early to tell in Missouri, but overall the Senate is looking difficult for the Democrats.

9.26pm ET. Time to close the door on Florida, I gather.

9.21pm ET. Michigan though is close for comfort. New York Times has Clinton at only a 58% probability, owing to the fragility of her leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

9.20pm ET. However, Colorado is looking good with 25% counted, suggesting it will join Virginia as a Trump roadblock.

9.18pm ET. Numbers coming in for Michigan and Pennsylvania, both showing with Clinton with moderate leads.

9.16pm ET. About 70,000 votes have been added in Broward, and they’ve perhaps been less favourable for Clinton than required, going 55.0% to 40.0% her way.

9.14pm ET. Virginia still looks like Clinton’s firewall: the New York Times projects her for a 91% probability and a margin of 3.2%.

9.10pm ET. The New York Times has Clinton a 69% chance, which tends to suggest this is another presidential election where Nate Silver has ended up looking pretty good.

9.10pm ET. Still slow progress in Broward.

9.08pm ET. The New York Times now has Trump with his nose in front in all the close states, and betting and financial markets are rushing to price in a higher risk of a Trump win.

9.02pm ET. Trickles of votes coming in now for Broward county, which will need to be plentiful to get Clinton over the line in Florida.

9.01pm ET. Clinton continues to firm in Virginia, which closes a lot of pathway for Trump.

8.59pm ET. In North Carolina, Richard Burr has his nose in front to retain the Senate seat for the Republicans, but Clinton retains a slight edge in the presidential vote.

8.48pm ET. Clinton looking good in New Hampshire.

8.43pm ET. New York Times has Clinton maintaining tiny leads in North Carolina and Iowa, but Trump slipping ahead in Ohio and holding firm in Florida. That Virginia is not absolutely nailed down, and a number of important states further west are yet to report, means there is still a theoretical path for Trump.

8.42pm ET. A lot seems to hinge on Broward county in Florida, which has only reported its early voting results to this point.

8.39pm ET. FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans 69% chance of retaining the Senate.

8.38pm ET. Evan Bayh fails to win Indiana Senate for the Democrats.

8.36pm ET. Florida back to Trump +0.6% at New York Times, nothing in it in North Carolina, Clinton still with her nose in front in Ohio.

8.35pm ET. Now I’m hearing less encouraging talk on North Carolina, for both presidency and Senate.

8.34pm ET. NBC News projects Republican House majority.

8.32pm ET. New York Times projection on Florida drifting slightly to Clinton: Trump’s lead down from 0.6% to 0.3%.

8.25pm ET. Wise heads on Twitter sound doubtful that Trump is doing as well as New York Times projections suggest: “Someone tell me how Trump overcomes what’s still out in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach”.

8.21pm ET. And Ohio better than anticipated for Clinton as well.

8.20pm ET. But Clinton appears to be performing well in North Carolina.

8.19pm ET. The New York Times model is projecting a 0.5% lead for Trump, so some mixed signals there.

8.17pm ET. New York Times projects early lead for Clinton in Ohio, which is good news (I won’t pretend to be impartial here).

8.13pm ET. More indications of Clinton outperforming Obama in North Carolina, which Romney won 50.6% to 48.4%.

8.10pm ET. Really good results and projections display from New York Times.

8.09pm ET. Republican Marco Rubio’s anticipated re-election to Florida Senate confirmed.

8.08pm ET. No one’s calling any battleground states, but encouraging indications for Clinton in Florida and North Carolina, and betting markets moving her way.

8.07pm ET. NBC News confirms anticipated Democratic Senate gain in Illinois.

8.03pm ET. Could be wishful thinking, but Daily Kos sounds encouraged about North Carolina Senate race, where persons of good conscience will be hoping Deborah Ross ousts Republican incumbent Richard Burr.

7.56pm ET. Hugely important Miami Dade county in Florida swinging 3% to Clinton compared with Obama’s winning performance in 2016.

7.53pm ET. Clinton just shot to the lead in the raw count in Florida. Probably just goes to show you the limitation of looking at raw results, particularly in such an electorally diverse state.

7.49pm ET. Republican Senator Rob Portman’s re-election in Ohio confirmed. Always looked a disappointing race for the Democrats.

7.45pm ET. Australia’s ABC (i.e. Antony Green) is calling Democrats 182, Republicans 94, but none of the calls are in battleground states.

7.41pm ET. Enjoy footage of Nevada judge dressing down douchebag Trump lawyer over “voter fraud” lawsuit here.

7.36pm ET. Trump camp talking head on ABC News 24 talking tosh about “oversampling” by lying pollsters.

7.35pm ET. Jonathan Swan of The Hill: “In the presidential, Clinton looking strong in Pa., Colo., N.H., Mich., Wis., per exits. Florida she’s a squeak ahead. Ohio tied.” Colorado and New Hampshire would close any path to a Trump victory.

7.31pm ET. More good signs for Clinton in Florida, from Duval county: “Clinton over Trump 49-47 w/ 300K votes in. If that doesn’t change, it’s over. GOP can’t win statewide w/o Duval.”

7.28pm ET. Latino Decisions reports: “Latino vote in Florida now posted: Clinton 67 – Trump 31 (+36) 2012 was Obama 58 – Romney 40 (+18)”. Also talk of particularly strong turnout in Latin areas of Miami.

7.20pm ET. Stephen Bush at the New Statesman notes there is “a swing towards Clinton in Kentucky, though Indiana looks bad for both rural Ohio and Evan Bayh’s chance of taking the Senate seat back for the Democrats”.

7pm ET. Polling stations close in the first of the key states around about now, so here begins live coverage of today’s momentous US elections. See here for my final poll aggregation and Senate review.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

837 comments on “United States elections live”

Comments Page 15 of 17
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  1. dave
    Brexit was a huge stuff-up by Cameron. Apart from that he was better than I expected.
    Abbott was even less competent than I thought he would be and I wasn’t expecting much. When you are looking back wistfully at the days of Howie, you know it’s all turned to shit. Frankly I’d take Howard over Turnbull at the moment.

  2. Brexit was a huge stuff-up by Cameron. Apart from that he was better than I expected.

    What about the NHS and UK disability pensions, to pick just two?

  3. LU
    The NHS has always been a basketcase. Cameron went in too hard, too fast in trying to change it but he’s doing much the same things state governments are doing here, albeit at a slower pace.

  4. LU
    Incidentally on health, the Federal Health Dept looks like giving private health funds a huge windfall by saying they don’t have to provide cover any more for people with skin cancers on most areas of their body.

  5. Imacca
    Calling a spade a spade is not giving in to fear and hate driven politics. If you believe the polls – and PB is all about polls – then Sanders would have had a better chance against Trump than Clinton. The Dem “establishment”, including Clinton, were in possession of this poll data, as well as the immediate reality of the strength of support for Sanders, yet they failed to properly leverage this understanding; either by nominating Sanders or by modifying Clinton’s election strategy to accommodate the rust belt.

  6. Nicholas

    I am glad to hear that you are the voice of one crying in the wilderness.

    Sanders was never going to do it; amongst other things he’s too old (as are Clinton and Trump). And he can’t communicate with middle america. Now, however, the way is wide open if Trump muffs the chance, as he probably will.

  7. The media and many people found it difficult to accept abbott was an utter DUD as so many excuses were made over and over and over about good government “starting today (or next week etc etc)”.

    An old friend of mine, Andrew Probyn, was laughing at a comment of mine a few years ago regarding Abbott and action on climate change. “Tony’s alright. He’s a good bloke” he said. I replied “Andy, he’s fucking dangerous.”
    Andy is a very decent man and a bloody good journalist yet he was so close to the players that he couldn’t see the scoreboard.

  8. One interesting thing from the election. The voters sent back almost exactly the same congress as we currently have. This will be great news for all the evangelicals and gun nuts who want to put right wing loonies on the Supreme Court, but the working class people don’t seem to compute that they have sent back to Washington the very noxious weeds who befouled the swamp they want to drain.

  9. Incidentally on health, the Federal Health Dept looks like giving private health funds a huge windfall by saying they don’t have to provide cover any more for people with skin cancers on most areas of their body.

    Do people wanting to take out health insurance have to see a fund doctor for a medical?

  10. CC
    ‘Krug for me!’

    I know you’re just trolling, but consider this: to the extent that Trump’s election has serious consequences for Australia, you are as stuffed as the rest of us, for all your ability to obtain Krug (which is an expensive champagne marketed to idiots who have too poor a palate to actually tell a really good bubbly from a marketing exercise – a bit like a Trump voter when you think about it).

  11. Diogenes

    Brexit was a huge stuff-up by Cameron. Apart from that he was better than I expected.

    Apart from reviving the same idiotic austerity policies which (the first time round) cost them an Empire on which the Sun Never Sets, and a few other minors things like that.

    UK has been outperformed by France since the GFC; France, FFS!

  12. they failed to properly leverage this understanding; either by nominating Sanders or by modifying Clinton’s election strategy to accommodate the rust belt.

    Trog, what annoys me is that its not as simple as just blame the Democrats 100%. With hindsight yup, there are things they could / should have taken into account. There has also to be an acknowledgment that the “rustbelt” came as a surprise to them and i reckon to a lot of people. And now move on to work out how to get those voters back or compensate for the shift.

  13. Imacca
    The “rustbelt” is a specific geographic example of the type of inequality that has been clearly identified by the likes of Piketty, and is a direct consequence of rampant capitalism acting in a “small government” framework, and survival of the fittest.
    The rust belt is not a “surprise”. This change in society, automation and the role of work, needs to be addressed thoroughly by progressives, as conservatives are incapable of it.
    I could elaborate on this further but I am too pissed.

  14. The NHS has always been a basketcase. Cameron went in too hard, too fast in trying to change it…

    Please tTell me that is understatement.

    Two examples: He put GPs in charge of budgets they cannot oversee, and has private medical providers tendering for, and winning, contracts for services inside public hospitals that they cannot provide, at the expense of existing staff.

    It is set up to fail, and private health is already in the door.

  15. Tom
    If you are in the 12 month “waiting period”, the fund sometimes ask the doctor how long the skin cancer has been present. Unless the patient is obviously lying with some massive lesion thats obviously been there for years, we pretty much trust the patient. Under the new rules, if the skin cancer is on the body, the health fund says tough luck.

  16. There is one thing I’ve realised, from observing comments on this US election, the “sensible center” has become its own ideology distinct from “left” and “right” or even just some position that’s some kind of average of the two.

    It is frequently mistaken as the right by the left, and the left by the right.

    And it *is* ideological, with its attacks on others (in this case both left and right), excuse making and blame shifting characteristic of a group that has assumed its answers are self evidently correct and so any failures must be external.

  17. Clinton going to win the overall popular vote by maybe 0.5% plus.
    No consolation when pantsed where the votes mattered.
    She must be utterly shattered.
    About to speak now.

  18. EGT
    ‘Apart from reviving the same idiotic austerity policies which (the first time round) cost them an Empire on which the Sun Never Sets,…’
    Ah, no. They lost the empire because the empire was ready to keep killing THEM rather than the other way round…

  19. Dio
    In terms of expectations, my view is that most of what Trump promised will not happen. He will deliver on wrecking US action on global warming. Essentially this will ensure that around a quarter of global emissions will grow rather than contract.
    He will stack the Supreme Court with far-right zombies. Women are now at grave risk of not being able to opt for abortion.
    He will free up the gun culture.
    Most of the 11 million illegal hispanics work on the very cheap for Republicans. Most will still be there in 4 years but they will be made to suffer some more for the duration. A few hundred thousand may be shunted back in order to demonstrate that Trump is fair dinkum.
    Marriage equality is now at severe risk.
    Obamacare has had it.
    As for the economy, most of Trump’s nostrums are nutty nut nut stuff. He managed to polarize all economists into saying that, if enacted, his nostrums would drive US debt to GDP ratio above 100% and eventually drive the US, and probably the world, into a recession.

  20. Newsweek journo made this statement. Which is a fair enough observation.

    Trump’s supporters dont take what he says literally, but take him seriously.

    Everyone else takes what he says literally, but dont take him seriously.

  21. William’s last comment at top of the thread (12.52am) reads a bit like a mayday call before the ship went down.
    So this is the first day of the Donald Era (or is that Anno Donald). I put some money in my super fund last week expecting that hillary would win and stocks would rise. As it turned out, the Donald won and stocks rose. I guess that makes me an investment genius.

  22. What worries me, is that in their desire to show they can work with Trump – and not lose those trade deals they love signing, or the US military presence – our government is going to opt for deals that are even worse for Australia. They, and our media, will then take the mere signing of such deals as the measure of success – “see we did what you all said couldn’t be done” – while blithely ignoring the substance of what is actually being traded.

  23. DN – Is there much more we’ve got left to give to the yanks? If he kills off the TPP it will be great.
    Who are we to complain about Donald. We elected a far greater buffoon (Abbott). Only difference was that Abbott was not nuclear weaponised.

  24. The Dow is up because the rich have realised they will now be paying even less tax. Any low income Trump supporters should have realised they just voted for the rich to be able to screw them over even more.

    Dio, I dodn’t sleep well last night. I cannot see this ending well. I think we now need to steer a more middle course between USA and China.

  25. It’s going to be A LOT harder for the Repugs in Congress to deny money to a Republican President than to deny it to the Kenyan or the Woman, particularly when they realise that their base is calling out for it. The Donald is basically ignoring the Mass Distractions (Social Conservativism and Racism) the Repugs hid behind while they impoverished their base. He’s putting spending on the front burner.

  26. Oh I’ll be happy if he kills off the TPP and withdraws the US military. My question is how the Coalition are going to square that one with their desire to go around signing bits of paper. Let the US isolate itself.

    However, I wonder. Are we going to be pulled into a US-led anglosphere bubble? Along with the UK? The kind that Abbott would love to create? That’s what the far right are cheering about.

  27. Pascoe makes the excellent point. If the Yanks are going to withdraw from the pacific why are we spending $60 bill on submarines to operate in the China Sea with them!

  28. The Dems have to take responsibility for this. Their establishment machine rejected Sanders, who would have won, for the same reason that Trump won.
    Sorry about the 3 consecutive posts – I’m off to work.

  29. Progressive dreamings continue.
    Sanders would have attracted the misogynist, racist, xenophobic and homophobic vote off Trump?
    Sure.
    What Sanders did do was to damage Clinton.
    That is all he achieved.
    When he realized just what he had done to the US, and the world, he swung behind Clinton but it was too late to undo the damage he done.
    Once again the progressives do their stuff.
    To the extent Sanders damaged Clinton, he helped Trump.

  30. Voters got tired of a Democratic Party that keeps telling them to eat a sh** sandwich because it may have marginally less sh** than the other sandwich.
    Conservatives dare to imagine a world that is closer to what they want; they dare to make their case no matter how it will be perceived by others. The mainstream left lacks that quality, which is why conservatives keep getting most of what they want. I staunchly oppose the content of what conservatives advocate but I give them credit for their tenacity and boldness.
    Anyone who still thinks that Bernie Sanders would have been a weaker general election candidate than Hillary Clinton is most likely (A.) at the top of the professional classes, and therefore insulated from the awfulness of Hillary Clinton’s economic policies; and/or (B.) a timid, unimaginative person who won’t push hard enough for what they want.

  31. N
    Sure. Sanders would have been much more successful than Clinton in attracting the racist, xenophobic, homophobic and misogynist vote. He is that kind of guy, right?

  32. Approximately 55 million, selfish (mainly white/poor/under-educated/gun-toting/racist/inward looking) Americans become the tail which wags the dog of the most powerful and richest nation going at the moment. I listened to some Republican mouth piece on BBC World Business this morning (actually from the UK but still an economics advisor to Trump) and she actually believes he can create 25 million new jobs and double US growth in 4 years. And there was I thinking that Jobsen Growth was an Australian.

  33. Well, time to stock up on popcorn and watch the world burn I guess.

    Will be fun to see how Trump goes, the most powerful man in the world, unable to pass a single bill because there are 2 parties in opposition to him.

  34. Shares in some polling companies in the US lost ground overnight. That some got it so wrong undermines those who are much more cautious in the polling business and lay out the ifs and buts. I don’t think we are quite back to examining chooks’ insides to make predictions, but based on the outcomes predicted by some polls, the chooks now do not look so bad.

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